The #2 Pick

[EArl]

No one is saying Durant hasn't had a great career, but that Oden injury was unknown at the time. The theory of hindsight bias runs deep within you.

[Luciferswings]

Sure, but even if Oden had been an almost Dwight like player, which I think is a fairly generous projection, he'd still have been less impactful than KD. The issue wasn't that Oden wasn't going to be great if he'd stayed healthy, it was that everyone underrated just how awesome KD would be. I'd wan to make sure you don't do the same with Russell, instead of saying "well, you always go big".

[ratra_1211]

Unless you know something about Okafor having a career threatening physical liability, there's really no way to know what a safe pick is. I disagree that Durant would be more impactful than a healthy Oden, just look at what Gobert has done to the Jazz defense. Oden was that good on defense (Bill Russell comparisons) along with a healthy post game and a monster on the pick and roll. If he stayed healthy, he'd be the best center today, hitting his prime at 27.

A good example for the guard version of Oden was also on the Portland roster in Brandon Roy. So you just never know how injuries work out with Russell or Mudiay either.

its sad really, we could be witnessing one of the best 1-2 punch since kobe and shaq in Roy and Oden had they are not plagued by injuries

[EArl]

Sure, but even if Oden had been an almost Dwight like player, which I think is a fairly generous projection, he'd still have been less impactful than KD. The issue wasn't that Oden wasn't going to be great if he'd stayed healthy, it was that everyone underrated just how awesome KD would be. I'd wan to make sure you don't do the same with Russell, instead of saying "well, you always go big".

I understand what you are saying. At the end of the day it isn't about what we want, but what management wants. Im pretty sure they will do workouts and interviews with the players and they will come to their own conclusions. There's always going to be anomalies on draft day. Russell could very be the next Kobe or he could be jamal crawford. As of right now the better prospect looks like Towns and Okafor and most scouts agree. II don't think people are saying to go with the big, just because they are bigs and they are scarce, but because they have shown more promise as of right now.

[tugs]

Please define impactful since it's too vague. Who's to say Oden would not be as good as, say Anthony Davis? The analogy used for Gobdrt is spot on. One does not need to be the scoring leader, etc. as long as the team wins.

[Mirjalovic]

I still pick Oden over Durant if Oden healthy. He always play great whenever he can get his ass on the floor.

It just wasn't to be. Thankfully Okafor and Towns are relatively healthy at this point.


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[Sedale Threatt]

Look man all I'm say is that guys act like Tim was Russell or an early 70's Jabbar on defense.I watched Duncan in college all 4 years at Wake Forest. I remember vividly his first years in the NBA, he improved over time. For some to act as if Oakfor won't figure it out is just dumb quite frankly.

It's completely moot to even compare Duncan to Okafor or Towns, Duncan had 4 years to hone his skills while the game on the college level has changed 100 fold since Duncan. If Towns and Okafor stayed 4 years I'm pretty sure they'd be total beast on the defensive end of the floor.

I'm sure you'll forgive me if I don't trust your recall if your impression of Duncan's defense during his early years in the NBA was that David Robinson was covering for him. Simply not the case.

Of course players improve -- especially ones who seem to have work ethics like Okafor does. But at this early stage, with one season to go on, we have no indication he's ever going to be a "beast" on defense. At least not based on a direct comparison with Duncan at the same age.

[Sedale Threatt]

No one is saying Durant hasn't had a great career, but that Oden injury was unknown at the time. The theory of hindsight bias runs deep within you.

There were actually more than a few people that were reluctant about Oden. It was well-known that he had innate structural issues -- not unlike Andrew Bynum, who broke down as well -- in that his legs were different sizes or something like that. Nobody was expecting Oden to blow up like he did, of course; that's hindsight. But his injury issues were a concern going back even to HS.

Thing is, just based on predraft hype, he and Durant were more highly regarded than any of the players in this draft. Oden was absolutely compared to some of the great centers, especially on D, and Durant, just look at his stats -- 26/11 w/ great shooting percentages. On a totally different level than any of this year's prospects. (For whatever it's worth, Draft Net had Oden scored at 106, Durant at 104, while Towns/Okafor are 98s.)

At any rate...it probably sounds like I'm down on Okafor based on the past couple of pages and I'm not. I'll be really excited if we draft him, and that's probably the direction I'd go if it was up to me. I just vehemently disagree with his idea that you always take the big first and that's that. And I'll be just a tiny bit apprehensive for the next few years that Russell might have been the better pick as all these guys establish themselves.

[dham1974]

Why do people think Russell has super star potential the guy isn't athletic and he struggled vs good defense. He's not even a good finisher under the basket.

[dham1974]

Or, heres another take.

Lets not out think ourselves here. okafor or towns. towns or okafor.

Now why would LA do a foolish thing like that? Philly will then sign Mudiay and NY will get Okafor

[dham1974]

Big Oak we can't pass up on a Domiante offensive big. I'd be shocked if it's between the 2 bigs

Exactly and we don't even know if Russell will be better than Clarkson. Clarkson is already doing well he's working on his shot and he's a lot more athletic than Russell.

[Michael Lucky]

Big Oak we can't pass up on a Domiante offensive big. I'd be shocked if it's between the 2 bigs

Exactly and we don't even know if Russell will be better than Clarkson. Clarkson is already doing well he's working on his shot and he's a lot more athletic than Russell.

except Clarkson is still projected more as a SG while Russell is mostly projected as a PG.

[dockingsched]

Why do people think Russell has super star potential the guy isn't athletic and he struggled vs good defense. He's not even a good finisher under the basket.

His athleticism actually appears to not even be average by NBA standards, guess we'll get more info after some workouts. Wouldn't be surprised if Mudiay goes ahead of him. Teams now a days prefer athletes who's skills they can develop.

[dham1974]

Why do people think Russell has super star potential the guy isn't athletic and he struggled vs good defense. He's not even a good finisher under the basket.

His athleticism actually appears to not even be average by NBA standards, guess we'll get more info after some workouts. Wouldn't be surprised if Mudiay goes ahead of him. Teams now a days prefer athletes who's skills they can develop.

Not true I heard many call him a combo guard ala Ginobilli Mudiay has been talked about as being a real PG.

[dham1974]

Why do people think Russell has super star potential the guy isn't athletic and he struggled vs good defense. He's not even a good finisher under the basket.

His athleticism actually appears to not even be average by NBA standards, guess we'll get more info after some workouts. Wouldn't be surprised if Mudiay goes ahead of him. Teams now a days prefer athletes who's skills they can develop.

Not true I heard many call him a combo guard ala Ginobilli Mudiay has been talked about as being a real PG.

I've heard scouts put Mudiay ahead of him in potential. My pick is Okafor because he's the only one who can be a first option for sure on this team.

[JohnVancouver]

No one is saying Durant hasn't had a great career, but that Oden injury was unknown at the time. The theory of hindsight bias runs deep within you.

There were actually more than a few people that were reluctant about Oden. It was well-known that he had innate structural issues -- not unlike Andrew Bynum, who broke down as well -- in that his legs were different sizes or something like that. Nobody was expecting Oden to blow up like he did, of course; that's hindsight. But his injury issues were a concern going back even to HS.

Thing is, just based on predraft hype, he and Durant were more highly regarded than any of the players in this draft. Oden was absolutely compared to some of the great centers, especially on D, and Durant, just look at his stats -- 26/11 w/ great shooting percentages. On a totally different level than any of this year's prospects. (For whatever it's worth, Draft Net had Oden scored at 106, Durant at 104, while Towns/Okafor are 98s.)

At any rate...it probably sounds like I'm down on Okafor based on the past couple of pages and I'm not. I'll be really excited if we draft him, and that's probably the direction I'd go if it was up to me. I just vehemently disagree with his idea that you always take the big first and that's that. And I'll be just a tiny bit apprehensive for the next few years that Russell might have been the better pick as all these guys establish themselves.

What i recall is that the concern over Oden was not his legs or feet, but his hands. Remember he'd had to learn to shoot with his offhand for a year because of surgery?

But back to the KD/Oden choice, conventional wisdom is that exceptional bigs are always taken over anyone else. MJ and Durant being two cases where the choice turned out very wrong. But I see why it's the case. It must be easier to build a team around and elite big man.

That said, both Chicago and OKC did a fine job building around MJ and KD.

In our case, if we take Okafor, we need 3-pt. shooting and a defensive PF to help out, along with a 3-and-D wing. GM's must be drawn to that kind of template when they're trying to decide on a pick.

[God Squad]

That's kind of the point though. Oden seemed the safe pick, but he actually wasn't. That's why you look closer at Russell. I actually think Oden would have been a star if he'd been healthy, he looked awesome in college, but in hindsight even a healthy Oden would have been struggling to be more impactful than Durant.

You're greatly underestimating a healthy Greg Oden.

[ALL HAIL]

Big Oak we can't pass up on a Domiante offensive big. I'd be shocked if it's between the 2 bigs

Exactly and we don't even know if Russell will be better than Clarkson. Clarkson is already doing well he's working on his shot and he's a lot more athletic than Russell.

except Clarkson is still projected more as a SG while Russell is mostly projected as a PG.

... Who can't guard PGs.

Imagine Russell trying to check Ty Lawson.

[iamworthy]

To be clear, my interest in Duncan's scouting report at age 19 has nothing to do with Russell. I was more interested in comparing Duncan to Okafor at age 19. Since some of the knock on Okafor is his defense. I think someone posted something about Marc Gasol being known as only a offensive player yet the dude just won DPOY last year. I was just wondering how much can Okafor grow on the defensive side of the ball. I'm in the take the big camp.

[Sedale Threatt]

No one is saying Durant hasn't had a great career, but that Oden injury was unknown at the time. The theory of hindsight bias runs deep within you.

There were actually more than a few people that were reluctant about Oden. It was well-known that he had innate structural issues -- not unlike Andrew Bynum, who broke down as well -- in that his legs were different sizes or something like that. Nobody was expecting Oden to blow up like he did, of course; that's hindsight. But his injury issues were a concern going back even to HS.

Thing is, just based on predraft hype, he and Durant were more highly regarded than any of the players in this draft. Oden was absolutely compared to some of the great centers, especially on D, and Durant, just look at his stats -- 26/11 w/ great shooting percentages. On a totally different level than any of this year's prospects. (For whatever it's worth, Draft Net had Oden scored at 106, Durant at 104, while Towns/Okafor are 98s.)

At any rate...it probably sounds like I'm down on Okafor based on the past couple of pages and I'm not. I'll be really excited if we draft him, and that's probably the direction I'd go if it was up to me. I just vehemently disagree with his idea that you always take the big first and that's that. And I'll be just a tiny bit apprehensive for the next few years that Russell might have been the better pick as all these guys establish themselves.

What i recall is that the concern over Oden was not his legs or feet, but his hands. Remember he'd had to learn to shoot with his offhand for a year because of surgery?

But back to the KD/Oden choice, conventional wisdom is that exceptional bigs are always taken over anyone else. MJ and Durant being two cases where the choice turned out very wrong. But I see why it's the case. It must be easier to build a team around and elite big man.

That said, both Chicago and OKC did a fine job building around MJ and KD.

In our case, if we take Okafor, we need 3-pt. shooting and a defensive PF to help out, along with a 3-and-D wing. GM's must be drawn to that kind of template when they're trying to decide on a pick.

The wrist was the injury that hampered him in college, but I definitely remember reading that he had some basic structural problems with his body, like one leg being longer or something like that. Like I said, nobody had any idea that he was going to break down to the extent he did, or he never would have gone first. But it was definitely a concern. (There was also the matter that Durant was a freak prospect in his own right; he'd have gone No. 1 just about any other year.)

And this conventional wisdom is exactly what I'm talking about -- we have more than enough examples that prioritizing bigs regardless is a flawed line of thinking. I love bigs and agree that a dominant center -- specifically a dominant two-way center -- is the most valuable asset in the game. But it doesn't seem like Okafor, or Towns, fits into that category as a prospect.