Possible outcome of our season (WORST CASE SCENARIO)..

[Beethoven]

Timberwolves at grizzlies tonite

Grizzlies have to win to keep gsw below them in 7th


6 grizz
7 gsw 1 loss back
8 Timberwolves 1 loss back

[Bob8]

Timberwolves at grizzlies tonite

Grizzlies have to win to keep gsw below them in 7th


6 grizz
7 gsw 1 loss back
8 Timberwolves 1 loss back

No, it's better that Minnesota wins. Minnesota has easy schedule and tie breaker against Warriors. That would put them over Warriors most likely. Grizzlies even if they win will probably finish behind Warriors, because of difficult schedule, if Warriors wins last 2. Clippers has tie breaker against Warriors too. So it might not be enough for Warriors even if they wins last 2.

Other possibility is that Memphis wins, but in that case you would need to believe that Memphis wins Denver or Clippers beat Warriors.

[Beethoven]

Timberwolves at grizzlies tonite

Grizzlies have to win to keep gsw below them in 7th


6 grizz
7 gsw 1 loss back
8 Timberwolves 1 loss back

No, it's better that Minnesota wins. Minnesota has easy schedule and tie breaker against Warriors. That would put them over Warriors most likely. Grizzlies even if they win will probably finish behind Warriors, because of difficult schedule, if Warriors wins last 2. Clippers has tie breaker against Warriors too. So it might not be enough for Warriors even if they wins last 2.

Other possibility is that Memphis wins, but in that case you would need to believe that Memphis wins Denver or Clippers beat Warriors.

Ok then... Timberwolves you better win!!!

[Bob8]

Timberwolves at grizzlies tonite

Grizzlies have to win to keep gsw below them in 7th


6 grizz
7 gsw 1 loss back
8 Timberwolves 1 loss back

No, it's better that Minnesota wins. Minnesota has easy schedule and tie breaker against Warriors. That would put them over Warriors most likely. Grizzlies even if they win will probably finish behind Warriors, because of difficult schedule, if Warriors wins last 2. Clippers has tie breaker against Warriors too. So it might not be enough for Warriors even if they wins last 2.

Other possibility is that Memphis wins, but in that case you would need to believe that Memphis wins Denver or Clippers beat Warriors.

Ok then... Timberwolves you better win!!!

Warriors are in pretty deep **** anyway, not anymore dependent only upon their results. But anything can happen of course, many possibilities still open, we don't even know where Lakers will end for sure. Rockets might play with full roster against them and Portland might too, knowing it's their last home game.

[Beethoven]

No, it's better that Minnesota wins. Minnesota has easy schedule and tie breaker against Warriors. That would put them over Warriors most likely. Grizzlies even if they win will probably finish behind Warriors, because of difficult schedule, if Warriors wins last 2. Clippers has tie breaker against Warriors too. So it might not be enough for Warriors even if they wins last 2.

Other possibility is that Memphis wins, but in that case you would need to believe that Memphis wins Denver or Clippers beat Warriors.

Ok then... Timberwolves you better win!!!

Warriors are in pretty deep **** anyway, not anymore dependent only upon their results. But anything can happen of course, many possibilities still open, we don't even know where Lakers will end for sure. Rockets might play with full roster against them and Portland might too, knowing it's their last home game.

To tell you the truth, 3seed to me is only for the morale of the team and this fanbase here.


If we end up losing both games and go to 6 seed.... It is same as being in 3 seed:


Both seeds will be playing against homecourt v Houston
Both seeds will be playing against one of mcnugget/gsw/memphis/clip

only difference is being we give homecourt away in 1st round. I dont think this is a big deal as I dont see in any situation against any of these four aforementioned teams that we will need more than 6 games to dispatch.


Basically 3 seed and 6 seed is just a play on musical chairs at this point.

[Bob8]

Ok then... Timberwolves you better win!!!

Warriors are in pretty deep **** anyway, not anymore dependent only upon their results. But anything can happen of course, many possibilities still open, we don't even know where Lakers will end for sure. Rockets might play with full roster against them and Portland might too, knowing it's their last home game.

To tell you the truth, 3seed to me is only for the morale of the team and this fanbase here.


If we end up losing both games and go to 6 seed.... It is same as being in 3 seed:


Both seeds will be playing against homecourt v Houston
Both seeds will be playing against one of mcnugget/gsw/memphis/clip

only difference is being we give homecourt away in 1st round. I dont think this is a big deal as I dont see in any situation against any of these four aforementioned teams that we will need more than 6 games to dispatch.


Basically 3 seed and 6 seed is just a play on musical chairs at this point.

But it's not only 3rd or 6th seed in play. I would still rather play Rockets or some other team, if Rockets lose than Okc in second round. I didn't look explicitly but Lakers having all tiebreakers means 6th is unlikely.

[Bob8]

Warriors are in pretty deep **** anyway, not anymore dependent only upon their results. But anything can happen of course, many possibilities still open, we don't even know where Lakers will end for sure. Rockets might play with full roster against them and Portland might too, knowing it's their last home game.

To tell you the truth, 3seed to me is only for the morale of the team and this fanbase here.


If we end up losing both games and go to 6 seed.... It is same as being in 3 seed:


Both seeds will be playing against homecourt v Houston
Both seeds will be playing against one of mcnugget/gsw/memphis/clip

only difference is being we give homecourt away in 1st round. I dont think this is a big deal as I dont see in any situation against any of these four aforementioned teams that we will need more than 6 games to dispatch.


Basically 3 seed and 6 seed is just a play on musical chairs at this point.

But it's not only 3rd or 6th seed in play. I would still rather play Rockets or some other team, if Rockets lose than Okc in second round. I didn't look explicitly but Lakers having all tiebreakers means 6th is unlikely.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.html

[Beethoven]

Yeah I dont know. Right now due to so many teams in one spot, it is hard to determine what is what it is so complex now. We will just have to wait till the dust settles a bit this weekend

[Bob8]

Yeah I dont know. Right now due to so many teams in one spot, it is hard to determine what is what it is so complex now. We will just have to wait till the dust settles a bit this weekend

Basketball reference says it's 0.5% for finishing 6th. So Lakers better finish 3rd.

[LAKESHOW]

Ok. Here's 1 for fun. We lose on purpose. Drop to 6. Allow the clippers to 3rd. There's no real home court advantage there. Then take out the clippers. Then take out the rockets, who regardless will have home court. Then semi finals with okc. .

[Beethoven]

Ok. Here's 1 for fun. We lose on purpose. Drop to 6. Allow the clippers to 3rd. There's no real home court advantage there. Then take out the clippers. Then take out the rockets, who regardless will have home court. Then semi finals with okc. .

uuh.. not sure about that. Im fine if that exact scenario arises..
but who is to control who takes 3seed? Not us.

It may be denver or gsw for all I know.

[Beethoven]

Doesn't seem like wolves have tiebreaker over gsw. Nba com still lists gsw over minn, and Memphis now. All three have same record.

[Beethoven]

Remaining relevant games not us:

Grizzlies at denver. Friday (??)
Dallas at grizzlies. Sunday

Nets at wolves. Friday (wolves win)
Jazz at wolves. Sunday (wolves win)

gsw at blazers. Friday (if gsw loses here, the below clip game doesn't matter)
Clippers at gsw. Sunday

Clippers at kings. Friday (Clippers win)

denver at rockets. Sunday (Houston will most likely throw this game to keep denver out of their bracket)


-----
Currently
3) LAKERS 31 losses
4) mcnugz 32 losses
5) Clippers 32 losses
6) gsw 33 losses
7) Memphis 33 losses
8) Minnesota 33 losses



-----
Tiebreakers (from what I can gather from AI):

(If all same records)

Clippers
>denver
>gsw
>Memphis
>Minnesota

If two teams same record same record only

denver>Clippers
Minnesota>gsw (according to Bob8)
(Any else?)

(Any other head to head, the tiebreaker is in the order of the aforementioned five team hierarchy)



-----
Main key here is, Clippers has to beat gsw so that Minnesota or Memphis/gsw share the play-in.
Other points:
Minnesota most likely holds at 33 losses.
No matter what happens, Houston will keep denver in 4/5 bracket.
Only way gsw goes upward, into 4/5 bracket, Clips have to lose both games.
If clips win kings game and denver beats Memphis, Clippers may throw the game against gsw Sunday because denver will take 4th seed no matter what against clips.
Basically
Memphis has to beat denver,
Clips have to beat sac
Then Sunday clips will try to beat gsw
To put gsw in 7th. (Or 8th if gsw loses to Portland too)
But but but, if gsw loses to Portland tomorrow, all the above is moot. They be in the play-in.

Not sure if any of this is absolutely correct. I'm tired. Going to sleep.

[LAKESHOW]

I'm looking forward to clippers gsw match up

[Bob8]

Doesn't seem like wolves have tiebreaker over gsw. Nba com still lists gsw over minn, and Memphis now. All three have same record.

Because it's 3-way tie. Unlikely it ends like this. Grizzlies plays back2back at Denver tonight.

The most likely play-in candidates are Grizzlies and GSW, but 1 unexpected result can change everything.

[Beethoven]

Doesn't seem like wolves have tiebreaker over gsw. Nba com still lists gsw over minn, and Memphis now. All three have same record.

Because it's 3-way tie. Unlikely it ends like this. Grizzlies plays back2back at Denver tonight.

The most likely play-in candidates are Grizzlies and GSW, but 1 unexpected result can change everything.

Ok Either Memphis has to lose one more or gsw does.
But what happens if Clippers lose two games and end up Clippers/memphis/gsw tie?

[Bob8]

Doesn't seem like wolves have tiebreaker over gsw. Nba com still lists gsw over minn, and Memphis now. All three have same record.

Because it's 3-way tie. Unlikely it ends like this. Grizzlies plays back2back at Denver tonight.

The most likely play-in candidates are Grizzlies and GSW, but 1 unexpected result can change everything.

Ok Either Memphis has to lose one more or gsw does.
But what happens if Clippers lose two games and end up Clippers/memphis/gsw tie?

I would say Clippers first and Grizzlies last.

The most likely scenario and pretty good for Lakers is, Lakers 3rd, Clippers/Denver 4/5, Wolves 6th. Lakers have foremost need to win 1 more game, preferably against Rockets, that's the easiest way to WCF no matter what others do.

[Bob8]

AI isn't working always, I looked at results and it looks that GSW has direct tie-break against Wolves, so GSW basically needs 2 wins to secure playoffs. Maybe better to stop writing.

[Beethoven]

AI isn't working always, I looked at results and it looks that GSW has direct tie-break against Wolves, so GSW basically needs 2 wins to secure playoffs. Maybe better to stop writing.

Yeah with only two game remaining, this seeding is still harder than rocket science

[Beethoven]

OK a LOT of the dust will settle after tonite's set of games:

Houston at Lakers. Friday
Grizzlies at denver. Friday
Nets at wolves. Friday
gsw at blazers. Friday
Clippers at kings. Friday

-----
Let's go over WORST and BEST case scenarios after tonite:

WORST REALISTIC CASE:

Houston at Lakers. Friday LAKERS LOSE?
Grizzlies at denver. Friday GRIZZLIES WIN?
Nets at wolves. Friday GUARANTEED WOLVES WIN
gsw at blazers. Friday GSW WIN?
Clippers at kings. Friday CLIPPERS LOSE?

This will put Lakers at a Must-win at Portland (trap game I foresee)
Grizzlies win along with a guaranteed Minn win will further cement keeping gsw at 6th seed (wins three-way tiebreaker) since they win in this scenario. Also the clips loss will put all four into a tiebreaker, and clips get advantage, meaning gsw still stays at 6th. I think.
Clippers loss just adds to the possibilities of gsw and clips trading places. (Which I guess is not bad, from the point of view gsw goes to the denver/okc bracket).

--

BEST REALISTIC CASE:
Houston at Lakers. Friday LAKERS WIN?
Grizzlies at denver. Friday GRIZZLIES LOSE?
Nets at wolves. Friday GUARANTEED WOLVES WIN
gsw at blazers. Friday GSW LOSE?
Clippers at kings. Friday CLIPPERS WIN?

This above will be a lovely outcome. Will make Sunday games non-meaningful to us (at last).
Basically gsw loss here will place them automatically into the play-in no matter what, due to Minn guaranteed win. Either 7th or 8th depending on what Memphis does. Doesnt matter if clippers lose to them on sunday. Clips get tiebreaker against gsw (but will push Minn up to 5th seed I think if clips go to 6th)
We clinch 3 seed.