RealGM

[Posted this on the GB but figured I'd post it here for you guys as well. Let me know what you think. I'll update as I go on.]

I'm sure you guys have seen the stat of this year's Miami Heat: In the last 10 seconds of the 4th or overtime, with the Heat tied or down 1-3pts (one FG), the Heat are shooting 1-18 this season...

We've seen some numbers and blah blah come out showing how Kobe isn't that clutch, or whatever with clutch being defined in various ways (last 5 minutes, last 2 minutes, each team up or down 5... etc).

I like the 10 second clutch stat (FGM-FGA in the last 10 seconds of the 4th or OT, with the player's team tied or down 1-3) as a different look on things than we've had in the past because:
A. That means it's basically last second shot time
B. It's when your team is tied or down one shot.. which is much different and feels different than you getting a FGA with your team up 3. In this definition, if you miss, you lose or go into OT for sure basically.

I took it upon myself to go through ESPN play-by-plays of Lebron and Kobe (for obvious reasons) to see what the stats show under this definition of clutch. Since I started doing this at 4am, I only got a few seasons done, but I'll post anyways and hope to continue my research tomorrow.

So here you have it, Lebron and Kobe's "Last 10sec" Clutch stats for 08-09 (Lebron's first MVP) til present.

Lebron James
08-09: 1-4 (25%)
09-10: 1-8 (12.5%)
10-11: 1-8 (12.5%)
Total (through last 3 seasons): 3-20 (15%)

Kobe Bryant
08-09: 2-6 (33.3%)
09-10: 7-11 (63.6%)
10-11: 1-3 (33.3%)
Total (through last 3 seasons): 10-20 (50%)

Funny enough, they have the same exact amount of attempts. Not the same amount of makes though.

Even as a Lakers, and subsequently a Kobe homer, I can still tell you that you can manipulate statistics however you want. Some versions do overall team off/def effiency over those timeframes. Some give you +/-.

But if we were to isolate shot-making abilities, it would be much more apples to apples to compare Kobe with Wade/Durant/Melo/Dirk.

Good work, BUT... I think 10 seconds is entirely too limiting and there's a lot more to being clutch than just taking/making shots. I've seen entirely too many game-winning/tying attempts that were the result of a busted play or perhaps a 30-foot heave because there was little time left after an inbounds pass. I don't know how anyone can really be criticized in those situations for missing a near impossible or low percentage shot. I actually like the definition that 82games.com uses because the last 5 minutes of a close game are generally the most intense, and that's especially true in a playoff atmosphere. You're able to look at how efficiently a player scores, how often he gets to the line, whether or not he's turning the ball over, etc.

What I don't like, and this is what all the nerds on the GB/PC board seem to rely on, is that the overwhelming majority of the articles that come out which talk about clutch focus exclusively on the regular season and can't seem to come up with any consensus on what defines clutch. Abbott's article a while ago (which was ripped apart by another Lakers blogger) was all over the place and was a classic example of the type of nonsense being spread about clutch.

You don't build a reputation as being clutch in the regular season -- you do it in the playoffs when the stakes are the highest and the competition is top notch. Is Kobe clutch because he hit a few game-winners against a couple of bottom-feeders last year? No, that's ridiculous to me. I think he's clutch because he maintains his composure and plays efficiently down the stretch (although not so much in last years playoffs...), which is extremely important in close games. You don't want the ball in the hands of a guy that can't break a trap or throws the ball away when he's double-teamed. You don't want the ball in the hands of a guy that can't take/make difficult shots and/or get to the line. You don't want someone who's timid and defers to lesser players.

I think entirely too much is being made of the Heat's "clutch" performances this year -- although admittedly I'm enjoying it because I can't stand those arrogant douche bags. LeBron and Wade have generally been very good down the stretch and I can't think of anyone outside of Kobe and Ginobili that I'd rather have running an offense when playing for all the marbles.

Oh, and here's some research that I did last year in comparing Kobe, Ginobili, Wade, and LeBron: viewtopic.php?f=64&t=943463&p=20723918#p20723918

I don't have all the numbers for Kobe's early years because the data is hard to come by. I watched a lot of tape when compiling those early numbers, but I didn't quite finish it off. Since I made that post some of the early games have been posted online (2001 Spurs, for example) so I'll probably go back and update those at some point.

So why is LeBron taking the shots over Wade again?

G=K wrote:So why is LeBron taking the shots over Wade again?

Well duh cos its HIS team...

I think a lot of the Heat's woes in late game situations has to go on Spo. I've seen them run plays where either LeBron or Bosh end up with a set 3-point shot, which is about the last thing you really want considering neither of them are great set shooters.

I imagine if Kobe were taking set shots like that we might be seeing similar results (remember the Olympics?).

again? Kobe obivously.

You can't define clutch with stats. You just can't do it. Clutch isn't just about whether you make the shot, it's about how you take the shot, whether you want the shot, how much defenses focus on you because they know you'll get it, and it includes clutch defense, clutch rebounds, and so on. Kobe's got all this, and no amount of stats can prove or disprove it. This is how I feel.