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These last 16 or so games will go a long way in determining if the Los Angeles Lakers will 3-peat this year. I firmly believe that the Lakers need home court advantage against Boston, Chicago, and even Orlando to be the clear cut favorites. Notice I did not mention the Miami Heat, partly because I believe they may be the only team in the East who could beat the Lakers with or without homecourt. However, Miami would have to make it to the big game first, which I believe they will not this year.

The Laker's schedule is a lot more favorable than Boston's down the stretch. Boston will be on somewhat of a tough western roadtrip starting friday night in Houston and then heading out to New Orleans. The Lakers have played 68 games this year with 14 remaining. The Celtics have played 66 games with 16 remaining.

Let's say Boston goes 12-4. (which is a very generous considering they play a lot of good teams on the road in these last 16 games, but for the sake of the argument...that would put Boston at 60-22)

The Lakers would have to go: 13-1 or (61-21) or 12-2. (to tie -- which i believed is judged by head to head and then conference, as of now, probably going to Boston)

Boston 11-5 (Lakers 12-2)
Boston 10-6(Lakers 11-3)
Boston 9-7 (Lakers 10-4)

If I had to take a guess at where Boston is going to finish I would say 10-6 or 11-5... Which means the Lakers can only afford 2-3 loses the rest of the way. The Lakers have 10 home game left and 4 on the road against the Jazz, GS, Portland, Kings. (last game of season). In other words, the Lakers have to take care of business at home to uproot Boston or claim that second best record in all of basketball.

I think if the Lakers can get that 2nd overall record, the sky is the limit. That being said, even if Chicago (by some chance) has a better record than the Lakers, they would still have HCA over anyone in the East except Chicago and SA in the West. As a Laker fan, I would take that anyday. (especially after this up and down season)

Good point

zelezeal wrote:I firmly believe that the Lakers need home court advantage against Boston, Chicago, and even Orlando to be the clear cut favorites.

Why would we need HCA against Chicago and Orlando?

Chicago is very good, but they are still a bit wet behind the ears and experience will absolutely matter in the playoffs. How many Bulls have been past the 1st round? Boozer is probably their most experienced player in that regard and he hasn't done that well against the Lakers in years past. As good as their defense is, they are going to need to be firing on all cylinders to knock us off because we know how to play championship basketball and perform when it matters. I really like what they're doing in Chicago, but I just don't think they're ready yet. Next year though ... I think they will be. I'm certain they'll add a little more scoring and when they do they will be very, very dangerous.

The Magic are a team that I'm not even remotely concerned about. We know exactly how to shut them down. They are a lesser team than they were a few years ago when we faced them, and we certainly didn't have any problems winning twice on their floor.

The Heat? They will fizzle when it matters. Bosh, IMO, is too inexperienced and he strikes me as the type of player that would crack under championship pressure. He hasn't experienced playoff basketball since 2007-08, so for him this is a whole new ball game. He's certainly never made it past the 1st round even when the Raptors did make the playoffs. Why harp on Bosh? Because he is the key for the Heat to have a chance against us. We know how to keep LeBron and Wade under wraps, but Bosh has been a real thorn in our side. He has been the guy that has toasted us in both games, and quite frankly, that's an easy adjustment for us to make. The pressure is going to be on him to perform well in a 7-game series. Bynum is getting better and better, and I suspect that Pau will play like a champion when it matters, so I wouldn't put too much stock into what the Heat did against us in the regular season. All of that gets thrown out in a 7 game series. I feel fairly confident that we can take them with or without HCA, unless the refs take over in which case it could go either way.

Boston is a different story though. They are super experienced and just a tough opponent whether they have HCA or not. They know how to win. I would definitely not want to play a game 7 on their floor, but it would be even sweeter if we'd be able to pull something like that off. Still, unless their FC is at near 100% they don't stand much of a chance. They will absolutely need Shaq to be able to play at least 30 MPG and give productive minutes, otherwise they are royally screwed. I get the feeling that the entire reason Shaq has been out so long is to prepare for the playoffs, so we'll have to wait and see what happens there. With a healthy Shaq though it's going to be extremely tough to knock them off.

I think the Bulls will upset Boston this year. The Heat will probably be eliminated in the 2nd round.

It's kind of hard to gauge the Heat. While I want to say that they'll get knocked out in the 2nd round, something tells me that they'll upset one of Chicago or Boston. Still, I can't see them getting past BOTH, and that's what they'll have to do if they want to sniff the Finals.

Just to clarify, I think we need HCA to be the clear cut favorites versus Chicago and Orlando. I think we beat both of these team regardless, but in order to be the clear cut favorite, I think we need HCA. I also agree with you about Chicago's inexperience and not being concerned abouthe Magic.

I'm not really too confident that we can beat the Heat in a 7 game series with or without HCA...and it has little to do with Bosh. What concerns me is, quite simply, the Heat have two of the top 3 talents in all of basketball. For whatever reason, (aside from Kobe, Fisher, Artest, maybe Odom) our guys do not seem to understand that Wade and Lebron are the real deal. You have to be very physical with them and play very good team defense..something we struggled with in the past versus Wade and Lebron. We just have not dealt with them well enough( as a team) to make me confident enough versus them in a 7 game series..and like you said, the refs, and Wade, 25fts a game in his last finals, want nothing to do with that. (at least not this year) BTW, just to clarify, if we do indeed play the Heat, Lakers need HCA. Wade and Lebron are just too good and want to beat Kobe too bad to not have it.

Boston, bring'em on! I want Boston. We beat them last year, and they have got softer ever since. I think getting rid of Perkins (was a mistake) not because Perkins is as good as he thinks he is, simply because the Celtics are small and marshmellow soft inside without him. I do kind of worry about the two Oneal's, but I question how effective two bigs up in age can be when they didn't play much of the regular season? I wouldn't want to play a game 7 in Boston either, Chicago, or anywhere else for that matter. The majority of the time the home team wins game 7, which is why despite being down last year going into th 4th, I just knew the Lakers would win. (well, that and I couldnt imagine Kobe and Phil (in the same light) ) if they didnt come back and win.

It's NO different this year than the last few years. LA and Boston are by far the two best playoff-built teams in the league and they WILL meet in the finals. And, the Lakers will win with or w/o HCA. Everyone's getting so caught up in the Lakers' supposed struggles this year. Anyone who knows this team well and has watched them consistently for many years, knows that this team is even better than it's been the last few years. This team's only real problem this year has been motivation/effort. Period.

Miami? This must be a joke. I have ZERO concerns about our chances against Miami in a playoff series (which is a moot point b/c it won't happen this year).

If I had to bet I would say you're a Miami fan.

zelezeal wrote:Just to clarify, I think we need HCA to be the clear cut favorites versus Chicago and Orlando. I think we beat both of these team regardless, but in order to be the clear cut favorite, I think we need HCA. I also agree with you about Chicago's inexperience and not being concerned abouthe Magic.

I'm not really too confident that we can beat the Heat in a 7 game series with or without HCA...and it has little to do with Bosh. What concerns me is, quite simply, the Heat have two of the top 3 talents in all of basketball. For whatever reason, (aside from Kobe, Fisher, Artest, maybe Odom) our guys do not seem to understand that Wade and Lebron are the real deal. You have to be very physical with them and play very good team defense..something we struggled with in the past versus Wade and Lebron. We just have not dealt with them well enough( as a team) to make me confident enough versus them in a 7 game series..and like you said, the refs, and Wade, 25fts a game in his last finals, want nothing to do with that. (at least not this year) BTW, just to clarify, if we do indeed play the Heat, Lakers need HCA. Wade and Lebron are just too good and want to beat Kobe too bad to not have it.

Boston, bring'em on! I want Boston. We beat them last year, and they have got softer ever since. I think getting rid of Perkins (was a mistake) not because Perkins is as good as he thinks he is, simply because the Celtics are small and marshmellow soft inside without him. I do kind of worry about the two Oneal's, but I question how effective two bigs up in age can be when they didn't play much of the regular season? I wouldn't want to play a game 7 in Boston either, Chicago, or anywhere else for that matter. The majority of the time the home team wins game 7, which is why despite being down last year going into th 4th, I just knew the Lakers would win. (well, that and I couldnt imagine Kobe and Phil (in the same light) ) if they didnt come back and win.

Playing Boston in the finals is tougher then it would be playing Miami. I really don't understand why you are so scared of Miami when they have no depth and no real size, plus I don't think they'll get past both Chicago and Boston. On the other hand if Boston is healthy they have a deep front court and they also know what it takes to win. In playoffs the pace slows down and running is a big part of Miami's game.

Can not really worry about what Boston or any east coast team does. Lakers need to worry about getting out of the west. Be great to have home court all the time. Just got to get playing better ball to win and hope the starters do not need to go long minutes all the time.

laduane1 wrote:Can not really worry about what Boston or any east coast team does. Lakers need to worry about getting out of the west. Be great to have home court all the time. Just got to get playing better ball to win and hope the starters do not need to go long minutes all the time.

+1

I too looked at the remaining (14) games and lakers should lose no more than (2), wow, that would be (60) wins, which looked impossible a few weeks ago.

Lakers have NEVER had Bynum playing this well, this late in the season, so the rest of the NBA has a great reason to worry..

The Team that scares me the most in the East is the Heat, hopefully they will get bumped off along the way..

People need to worry about uprooting the Lakers. We're back to back champs. That's all.

Can't wait for the playoffs to start

TyCobb wrote:People need to worry about uprooting the Lakers. We're back to back champs. That's all.

Co-sign.

Boston will lose more games than you think. They will rest their starters towards the end of March and most of April so there's no question that they'll accumulate losses. The Spurs don't care about the regular season anymore, so in our game against them we should face nothing but the backups for the most part. There's a good chance that we could go undefeated heading into the playoffs, but I foresee trap games like Denver and maybe we drop one against Portland, and possibly OKC gets some revenge. So 11-3 is what I see our record being and us having HCA in the Finals (of course if we get past the Spurs).

zelezeal wrote:I'm not really too confident that we can beat the Heat in a 7 game series with or without HCA...and it has little to do with Bosh. What concerns me is, quite simply, the Heat have two of the top 3 talents in all of basketball.

That doesn't really matter if they can't utilize their talents properly. They haven't shown any kind of ability to play well together consistently, at least not against the better defensive teams in the league. When Wade is doing his thing LeBron stands around spectating, and when they start playing LeBron ball Wade and Bosh are not really involved because he's looking to score or kick it out to one of his 3-point specialists. Those 3-point specialists, none of which have any kind of real playoff experience, are going to choke when it matters.

We have the size in the middle to make it difficult for Wade and LeBron to score on us when they go into ISO-mode (which is what we'd want), and I'm confident that Kobe and Artest can force those two into taking more difficult outside shots. Those shots don't fall quite as often when the pressure is on, and seeing as how those two can't do diddly squat in a half court set, the onus is on them to run plays for the team and hit their shots. They damn sure aren't going to be scoring much inside unless our bigs vanish. The Heat rely on out-hustling opponents and getting out in transition, which is something that will not happen against us in the playoffs. We aren't going to see them out-rebounding or out-hustling us when the championship is at stake. No way. They also lack the coaching to make adjustments from game-to-game. Spoelstra doesn't have a damn clue, and since there aren't any real leaders out on the floor for the Heat, they essentially have to play spotless basketball.

My biggest fear in facing the Heat really isn't about LeBron, Wade, or Bosh -- it's about Kobe playing like an idiot. He has a tendency to get caught up in the whole Kobe vs. LeBron/Wade crap and that's resulted in some epic failures (as well as a few epic wins, no doubt). If he plays smart basketball they don't stand a chance, but if he goes out there trying to prove himself better than those two then it becomes a series.

Im not worried about Boston anymore. Orlando isnt good and I would kill for Chicago in the Finals. Miami is the only opponent in the east im worried about.

Portland could take us to 6 or 7 games in round 1 though

semi-sentient wrote:

zelezeal wrote:I'm not really too confident that we can beat the Heat in a 7 game series with or without HCA...and it has little to do with Bosh. What concerns me is, quite simply, the Heat have two of the top 3 talents in all of basketball.

That doesn't really matter if they can't utilize their talents properly. They haven't shown any kind of ability to play well together consistently, at least not against the better defensive teams in the league. When Wade is doing his thing LeBron stands around spectating, and when they start playing LeBron ball Wade and Bosh are not really involved because he's looking to score or kick it out to one of his 3-point specialists. Those 3-point specialists, none of which have any kind of real playoff experience, are going to choke when it matters.

We have the size in the middle to make it difficult for Wade and LeBron to score on us when they go into ISO-mode (which is what we'd want), and I'm confident that Kobe and Artest can force those two into taking more difficult outside shots. Those shots don't fall quite as often when the pressure is on, and seeing as how those two can't do diddly squat in a half court set, the onus is on them to run plays for the team and hit their shots. They damn sure aren't going to be scoring much inside unless our bigs vanish. The Heat rely on out-hustling opponents and getting out in transition, which is something that will not happen against us in the playoffs. We aren't going to see them out-rebounding or out-hustling us when the championship is at stake. No way. They also lack the coaching to make adjustments from game-to-game. Spoelstra doesn't have a damn clue, and since there aren't any real leaders out on the floor for the Heat, they essentially have to play spotless basketball.

My biggest fear in facing the Heat really isn't about LeBron, Wade, or Bosh -- it's about Kobe playing like an idiot. He has a tendency to get caught up in the whole Kobe vs. LeBron/Wade crap and that's resulted in some epic failures (as well as a few epic wins, no doubt). If he plays smart basketball they don't stand a chance, but if he goes out there trying to prove himself better than those two then it becomes a series.

Well said, some people just get caught up on the fact that they have 3 superstars

KB24TBOTB wrote:[.......] I really don't understand why you are so scared of Miami when they have no depth and no real size, plus I don't think they'll get past both Chicago and Boston. On the other hand if Boston is healthy they have a deep front court and they also know what it takes to win. In playoffs the pace slows down and running is a big part of Miami's game.

They beat us twice and Lebron's teams have always beaten us. There is indeed a reason to be concerned.

The Laker Kid wrote:

KB24TBOTB wrote:[.......] I really don't understand why you are so scared of Miami when they have no depth and no real size, plus I don't think they'll get past both Chicago and Boston. On the other hand if Boston is healthy they have a deep front court and they also know what it takes to win. In playoffs the pace slows down and running is a big part of Miami's game.

They beat us twice and Lebron's teams have always beaten us. There is indeed a reason to be concerned.

I agree. If it's any team thats going to stop us from 3-peating its the Miami Heat.They'll be a dangerous team when they get Udonis back in the line-up and with the aggressive way Bosh has been playing as of late if they keep it up I wouldn't be surprised if they knock out Boston and head to the Finals. There's only one player that can prevent us from repeating and thats Kobe Bryant. As Semi said, Kobe wants to prove that he's still Kobe and that he's one level above everyone else in the league, so he tries to take games over and in the process he's taking horrible shots, basically making everyone else around him spectators. If Kobe gets over the whole Kobe vs. whoever, and actually trust his teammates then we should be fine. But if he tries to go Hero mode then it'll be a long series which will probably end up with us having bad tastes in our mouths and shaking our heads as Phil leaves us.