RealGM

I imagine this question has been asked in the past but since I can't remember such a time and I'd like to know what everyone thinks about this, I'll ask it now.

Do you believe Kobe will retire as the All-Time leading regular season, post-season and all-star scoring leader?

Kobe needs just 19 points to pass Michael Jordan on the all-time all-star scoring list and since he averages over 22 points per all-star game he actually plays in this should be the first all-time record to fall.

Kobe also needs just 708 more playoff points to pass Jordan on the all-time playoff scoring list. Over the past four seasons Kobe has averaged 557 playoff points per season and with his career playoff starter average of 27.2 ppg it would seem that Kobe will break Jordan's record and become the all-time playoff scorer as long as he plays at least 26 more playoff games, something he should accomplish during the 2013 playoffs at the age of 34.

The all-time regular season scoring record is the real challenge. Kareem Abdul Jabaar currently holds the record with 38,387 points while Kobe has 27,868 career regular season points, leaving him 10,520 points shy of setting the new record.

Personally I feel Kobe has a very realistic chance of averaging 26ppg next season playing slightly more minutes than he did last year as new coach Mike Brown will call on Kobe to carry the team more than P.J. did. I could then realistically see Kobe averaging one less point per game, per season over the following 6 years, playing an average of 76 games (Kobe's exact average over his career, minus his rookie season).

If the above were to occur, Kobe would retire at the age of 39 (the same age as Jordan) after averaging 20ppg in his final season, with 40,104 career regular season points, shattering Kareem's record by over 1,700 points!

Besides numbers and all that jazz... you forgot to factor in his minutes played. He has alot more mileage then Jordan when they were same age.

he won't get kareem's record. As a guard, it's hard to stay that effective as age kicks in.

If there is a long lockout he won't have a chance(for the RS record,the other two are in his bag)
However,if they reach an agreement and there is no lockout he has a chance....I'm not saying he'll pass Kareem but I DO see him at ~36-37 k and if still has game I can see him playing and at least trying to get the record

I can't see Kobe averaging less than 20 ppg given 30 mins a game even in his late 30's so if he can stay injury free and have ~ 78 games per season he has a chance
He has 3 years left in his contract and he'll get 6200-6500 more points in this span putting him at ~34 k points at age 35..... don't think he retires at 35

If he averages 21 pts per game from now on on 78 games per season he'll need 6 and a half seasons to pass Kareem....

I don't see it happening, not with the amount of minutes Kobe has already played by this age. But 1st in AS points, 1st in playoff points, and 3rd in regular season points (replacing MJ's spot in all of those) ain't bad at all.

Won't take over Kareem but he can do the other 2. He can get close though.

I agree, don't think Kobe can beat Kareem.

#9 wrote:Besides numbers and all that jazz... you forgot to factor in his minutes played. He has alot more mileage then Jordan when they were same age.

Very good point and you are 100% correct ... it will take great health and some superhuman will for Kobe to play long enough to break Kareem's record, however I do think he has it in him and will be determined to do it. I just don't see Kobe as a Barry Sanders type, someone willing to let a rushing title go to another player when he could easily win it, or let the all-time rushing mark go to someone else when he could easily get it.

Kobe is a gangsta and I think he wants the scoring record. He has often said that he's a scorer and 1-on-1 player at heart and I think this is a record that will really mean something to him.

ROballer wrote:If there is a long lockout he won't have a chance(for the RS record,the other two are in his bag)

Very good point. Kobe already lost out on around 650 points with the first 32 game lockout he had to endure, a second would be crazy. However as I have him going ovber 40,000 points I do think he could withstand another long lockout (certainly not more than a full season).

However,if they reach an agreement and there is no lockout he has a chance....I'm not saying he'll pass Kareem but I DO see him at ~36-37 k and if still has game I can see him playing and at least trying to get the record

True.

I can't see Kobe averaging less than 20 ppg given 30 mins a game even in his late 30's so if he can stay injury free and have ~ 78 games per season he has a chance

Most definitely.

He has 3 years left in his contract and he'll get 6200-6500 more points in this span putting him at ~34 k points at age 35.....

Wow, I've only got him racking up around 5,700 points over the next 3 years and having around 33,500 at the age of 35 but I still have him topping Kareem ... you must think he'll retire at a much younger age than I do.

don't think he retires at 35

I don't think so either ... Kobe's life is basketball, he's not like a Shaq who was always wrapped up in the entertainment world or a Lebron who is more dedicated to being a global brand and a billionairre than the G.O.A.T. ... Hhe's not even like a Jordan who seemed to battle inner demons and emotional issues and play Brett Favre before Brett Favre. Kobe is all about ball and being the greatest baller he can be, maximizing his gifts, etc.

If he averages 21 pts per game from now on on 78 games per season he'll need 6 and a half seasons to pass Kareem....[/quote]

If Kobe gets the 6,500 points over the next 3 years years you believe he will and then drastically drops down to averaging just 21 points a game it would only take him 2.5 more years to pass Kareem ... you'd have him passing Kareem half way through the 2016-17 season at the age of 38. That would be awesome as I have him passing Kareem about a year laater.

AI-in-LA wrote:

ROballer wrote:Most definitely.

He has 3 years left in his contract and he'll get 6200-6500 more points in this span putting him at ~34 k points at age 35.....

Wow, I've only got him racking up around 5,700 points over the next 3 years and having around 33,500 at the age of 35 but I still have him topping Kareem ... you must think he'll retire at a much younger age than I do.

Yeah...I've maybe exaggerated just a little bit....maybe closer to 6000
For 6000 he'd need ~ 25 ppg for 80 games a season for the next 3 years.....very possible

People forget he put up 25.3 ppg in under 34 mins a game last season... he averaged 26.9 ppg per 36 mins,the 3rd best season of his career in scoring per 36 mins

And I'll bet you this....he won't see close to 34 mins under Mike Brown....he doesn't have the balls to sit Kobe 5 or 6 mins on the bench during the 4th quarters like Phil did....with his knee healthy I expect at least 36 mpg if not more,so his ppg should increase with more minutes

If Kobe stays reasonably healthy, and decides to play til 38-40, he can catch Kareem

If his body hold out that long and he has the desire to play at lease another 5 years. He can be #1 or #2. Kobe will be making 30 milion on the end of his contract. Maybe he signs a new one for say half of that a year.

People are saying "its not about age. its about minutes" then why does a lock out matter? Those are just less minutes kobe is playing anyway, so theoretically if it's about minutes, he'll just retire one season after he would have if there was no lockout.

The fact of that matter is while Kobe has played a ton of minutes, playing minutes at a young age has less wear and tear than minutes when you are 30+. They will shorten his career in terms of age when he retires, but not by that much due to playing so many of the extra minutes (compared to Jordan) at a much younger age.

Kobe won't pass Kareem, OP needs to get off that pipe dream. Simple reason is Kobe won't play til age 38 or 39 or 40. Guards tend to not play that deep in age anyway due to speed issues. It's much easier for big to go past 38,39 or 40 because their game isn't predicated on speed anyway.

if kobe can transition his play to the 3 position, i don't see why not.

its a pretty big hill to climb tho

I really think this time off for Kobe is really going to rejuvenate him - mind, body, and spirit. This will allow Kobe to be (in my estimation) as close to 100% healthy as he possibly can be. I think Kobe will also be sufficiently motivated to have an MVP type season in 2012.

Yes, he has more mileage on his body. But Kobe is still Kobe... and I fully expect him to score at an elite level next season.

DEEP3CL wrote:Kobe won't pass Kareem, OP needs to get off that pipe dream.

Pipe dream? Oh please. Seems 15 out of the 18 voters on this thread think Kobe can do it. I would say Kobe thinks he can do it too, hahaha.

Simple reason is Kobe won't play til age 38 or 39 or 40. Guards tend to not play that deep in age anyway due to speed issues. It's much easier for big to go past 38,39 or 40 because their game isn't predicated on speed anyway.

Jordan played at 39 and Jordan wasn't as skilled an offensive player as Kobe is ... if Kobe bulks up and plays the 3 like Jordan did he could easily play till 40.

not sure if serious

^ Huh?

kobe can't and i hope lebron won't.