RealGM

Here are the odds the Lakers keep their 1st round pick depending on where we finish in the standings.

Worst record 64.3% (1st pick 25%, 2nd 21.5%, 3rd 17.8%)
*29th overall 55.8% (1st pick 19.9%, 2nd 18.8%, 3rd 17.1%)
28th overall 46.9% (1st pick 15.7%, 2nd 15.6%, 3rd 15.7%)
27th overall 37.8%
26th overall 29.2%
25th overall 21.5%

50/50

either they will or they won't

hermes wrote:50/50

either they will or they won't

Agree on that. That's it.

if you guys remember the odds of the lakers keeping their pick last year, it was roughly the same as keeping our pick when we had the 5th worst record - 55:44

It works out for me honestly. I like the top 3 pick, not so much the 4th pick. It'll sting a bit but the 4th pick is w/e for me anyways.

Ideally we would get top 3 and do well enough next year that our first round pick don't matter jack. But it's not the end of the world if we don't get a pick.

We should just rename this the Official Tank Thread -- talk about our lottery chances, etc.

Would be a huge help to get the pick, obviously.

I'm going by how we went last year.

Last year we went 4th and got 2nd pic ...
This year we finish 3rd or higher we ge number 1 pic haha -

Edit: for any smart asse, I meant 4th last etc lol


The NBA owes La.

hermes wrote:50/50

either they will or they won't

You miss every shot you don't take.

Slim, because they'll go on a tear and make the playoffs.

45% isn't the best odds for having the 3rd worst record. We absolutely cannot end up with a better record than the suns.

It's basically a coin flip. The situation we're in right now should be the sole reason why Jeanie needs to clean house. That Suns trade was a Nets style move. Completely undervalued our picks, and set us up for failure, all for a point guard in his late thirties.

Arrogance, and a front office that's behind the times got us here. How do you sell this season to the fans if we lose the pick? Sorry but Kobe's Farwell tour isn't good enough. It's a nice distraction though

Marionettetc wrote:

hermes wrote:50/50

either they will or they won't

You miss every shot you don't take.

i'll take every shot i don't miss

hermes wrote:

Marionettetc wrote:

hermes wrote:50/50

either they will or they won't

You miss every shot you don't take.

i'll take every shot i don't miss

Sometimes you gotta just swing for the fences

64.3% with the worst record. That's not an insignificant advantage, that's close to 2/3 odds, not 50/50.

Which is why we need to lose every game and beat out Philly. It's the best chance we'll get to turning this thing around: historically, it's always been the draft. You land elite FA's only if you have the assets/culture/system, which we don't have. So it's the draft.

Especially with the new money/CBA - rookie contracts for elite talent are pure gold. That lets you both attract and stack stud free agents.

We have to go all in, and we shoot for Simmons at 1 or Ingram at 2. I would shop the 3rd if that's where we end up.

Anyways, that's the best plan, because it's highly unlikely Durant or any other top 10 talent come to the Lakers as a free agent. We have to do this through the draft. The best chance of winning championships always starts there.

Have some Faith Miles. Money talks more then anything these days. Yes they say, they want to win etc, but how many of these guys are going to have a chance to win with their current teams or with new ones? A lot of them will end up being the, K.Malone, C.Barkleys, C.Anthonys of the league - Great players but never win the chips. Highly due to the tough teams out there

The draft lottery is going to be terrifying. Its impossible to discount just how important the order of these ping pong balls is to the future of our franchise.

One lucky or unlucky drop of the ball could literally be the difference between continued success or failure for the next 10 years. Lose the pick and maybe things still turn out alright in the end but getting the #1 or #2 pick could mean adding a superstar prospect who could one day carry us back to championship contention.

I don't know if any one follows fivethirtyeight.com but they only have us favored for 2 games the rest of the year. Tuesday night against Brooklyn and the home game against the suns on march 18th. The other game we play the suns we plays memphis at home the night before. The chances we keep our pick will look good if we can split those games. Every Suns win is huge for us right now. Best bet for Lakers is to finish with second worse record. I just don't see Philly winning 3 more games then the Lakers the rest of the way.

skullz wrote:Have some Faith Miles. Money talks more then anything these days. Yes they say, they want to win etc, but how many of these guys are going to have a chance to win with their current teams or with new ones? A lot of them will end up being the, K.Malone, C.Barkleys, C.Anthonys of the league - Great players but never win the chips. Highly due to the tough teams out there

But those guys were close. We don't have much to offer at the moment except for money. I'm not convinced the guys we need will necessarily take $ to be on a lottery/rebuilding team. The draft is still very important.


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I don't even know who'd I take if we get the 3rd pick. I think Kris Dunn is the 3rd best player, but we already have Russell and Clarkson. I think Jaylen Brown has the highest upside but he's extremely raw. I'd probably go with Brown and hope he learns how to play basketball lol.

^I think we'd just grab the best available, and figure it out later. We could also trade down, or trade the pick outright.