BlackieMamba wrote:If we don't sign any stars in FA in 2018, I would go as high as $18 mil per to keep him. Wouldn't love it but teams pay for potential in the NBA.
Barring big improvement, that would be insane. To me, paying for potential would be throwing down huge money on somebody like Otto Porter, who has only had one good season but still displayed elite talent in a critical skill (3-point shooting) and has made significant strides over the past two seasons. I'd still be nervous about it, but you can at least justify why the Wizards did it.
As for Julius, it's almost pointless talking about given the fact that we don't have complete information yet with one final season before we have to make a big decision. He's got everything to play for, with two seasons of experience, and he's reportedly gotten into phenomenal shape this summer. He's also got a point guard who should give him plenty of opportunities to shine.
That said, it's irritating when people conflate rational criticism with "hate." Some facts:
Good
1. He bumped his PER up to 16.3 last season, above average and very promising given that he's still only 22.
2. He also had nice jumps in FG% and TS%.
3. His two full-season TRB%s were elite and very good.
4. Last season's assist % was outstanding for a non-guard.
5. He shoots 65% at the rim, just above average.
Bad
1. He shoots 36% outside of 3 feet -- terrible.
2. He made 62 shots outside of 10 feet last season on 35% -- also terrible.
3. He's among the league's worst among F/Cs in block % and rim protection.
4. Was a negative on both ends of the court, and ranked 62nd out of 81 power forwards in real plus-minus.
5. His offensive and defensive ratings were both below league average last season.
This is not a particularly good player at the moment. Certainly not worth big money.
And personally, I don't see nearly enough potential to throw anything close to $20 million per at him. Even with how much Ingram struggled last season, you could still see what kind of player he might be with his length and size and touch and versatility. Same with D'Angelo and now Ball. Tons and tons of stuff for these players still to work on, but the packages were/are there.
With Randle, I don't really see that. Like, what are you getting from him as a whole? I do like his physicality and rebounding. I also think, with his quickness, he could turn into a decent switcher on defense, which is valuable. The passing could be especially nice next to Ball, as we saw in SL how everybody got into making the extra pass, although this is more of a nice bonus than something you really need from a player at his position. In the right circumstances -- i.e., right price, with quality talent to make up for his weaknesses -- I could definitely see him being a solid to good contributor on a winner, especially as a sixth man.
But does all this make up for the facts -- not hate, but facts -- that he can't space the floor or protect the paint, or make any real defensive impact? These are massive, massive flaws for his position. The former might be fixed with time, but not even close at the moment. The latter he's just stuck with as he lacks exceptional size or length.
Again, this year's going to be huge. I hate the Draymond comparisons given that they don't really play anything alike to me. But it's notable that he really started to take off in his third season -- and that's after a full four-year career in college. So it's entirely possible this could be the turning point for Julius. It sounds like he's put in the work to get ready for that, so props to him. It would be awesome for our future if he made us pay up.
It's just that at this point, on July 22, neither what we've actually seen on the court -- not, as dock noted, what we WANT to see --
nor the potential he's shown warrants a huge extension.
