Julius Randle is too legit to be a second option in free agency

[karkinos]

As much as I love randle I'm not buying it if our goal is to try to build a contending team from free agency
If we're just trying to build purely from our draft picks then yeah he is worth keeping in our core

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What's your other option if we sign 2 max contract.
No more capspace, what should we do? Losing him for nothing? Or re-sign him so we can trade him whenever we want

Let him walk

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[Landsberger]

I've mentioned before, he has earned a spot on the team, he has played hard all year. But the price is the difficult thing to gauge. He ain't higher than a certain amount. But he's earned A Spot. However, tonight was a night that showed how some teams will play him. With lengthier guys. It is clear, not in all cases, but it is clear that length is the kryptonite to his power.

This is pretty much where I'm at with him. Picture a team of Bron, PG, Ingram and Him along with Ball. Ingram needs to pound the ball and attach to score..... That's Bron's half court game too. Randle's game is all this too. PG can play off the ball to a certain degree but most of his career he's been the guy with the ball as well. Where does Ball fit into this? He's not your typical catch and shoot 3 point shooter who will space the floor. The balance of that group is suspect no matter how many all stars are there.

What Randle brings a team of guys like that is less than what he brings a team out of the playoffs like ours IMHO. His opportunities will be much fewer and his defense feeds off his offense. Counter intuitive but It's what I'm seeing right now.

That said, he's got a lot of value and he's probably as valuable as he'll ever be right now. Someone will give him a "poison pill" type of offer to push us to either let him go or force us to attach someone of value to Deng to keep our summer pipe alive. Not sure how the sign+trade stuff works on a restricted FA but if that's available that may be the best way to get some value back and balance the floor if we somehow get PG and Bron.

If we can't get both of those guys then I think we most likely keep him if for no other reason than keeping a popular player in the fold.

Lot's of decisions for the FO and none will be popular with everyone.... that's about the only thing that's a given.

[evilpimp972]

Im saying, if we get PG & LBJ, re-sign him for a good price (hopefully not max) then if that doesnt work by january, we can trade him for role players.
Some contenders may want him, like portland or the wizards

[stan francisco]

Okay, since my eye test is in the eye of the beholder, let's instead look up some cold hard stats to see if there's any validity in the argument that he should be prioritized over Paul George this summer.

March 1st to 27th stats for Julius

22.8 PPG
9.8 RPG
57.4 FG%
2.6 AST
2.6 TO
0.7 STL
7 DD2 (dbl dbl)

Amongst the top 50 best FG% shooters league wide, Julius is the only one player in the league(!) who is also a volume scorer. He's the only player to score more than 19 points. And that is BI who is listed as 50th in FG%. After that is Gobert at 17.7 PPG, then DAJ at 15.1 PPG. I value FG% greatly. Shot selection is key to winning rings. So is rebounding and defense and low post bullying in the half court set (playoffs). Check, check, check, check. His T/Os are offset by his FG%.

He's tied for 7th in double doubles with AD, RW, KAT, DH etc.

Paul George scores 18.0 PPG in March and is the NBA's 351st best player by FG%. Shoots 27.7% from three. Wtf happened?
https://on.nba.com/2GbEINV

In March, Julius is the NBA's 16th best rebounder tied with LBJ. He's also the 14th best scorer in the league, ahead of McCollum, Griffin, DeRozan, Embiid, Oladipo, CP3, Bradley Beal and many more.

March stats for PG13: https://on.nba.com/2I79UKG


Look, I'm not all sold on Julius, don't think any team should pay more than $18-20M for him at this juncture. He has his flaws. But if he adds a 3pt shot to his game this summer. We'll all want him back here long before we'll want PG13.

And so will LBJ.

Again, I don't think PG13 is a condition for LBJ coming here. Not at all. And PG will want a max contract. We have $70M to spend. Julius should be retained before PG13.

LBJ, Julius, Lopez. That would be a great offseason if you ask me.

I don't dig LBJ's vibe all the way, not sure I want his drama here but you can bet your rear that Magic and Pelinka will do all in their power to get him here.

[Landsberger]

The "stats" are great..... how does he fit with what we're doing this offseason? That's the question for me. He's very good at one thing offensively. Getting PG or LeBron takes away his lesser talents of distributing so we're left with someone who needs isolation and room to work 1 on 1. That's what a feature player typically does. Is he a feature player if we get PG and Bron?

I'm not sold on him either and it's not as much about what he can do in a few ways. He's doing very well on a team that isn't going anywhere. Is he as impactful on a team expected to contend?

[stan francisco]

He’s not a first or second option franchise player. But he still posts 20-10 since ASB. That’s rare.

So is the ability to play defense against opposing 1-5.

Bully ball down low putting the opposing bigs in foul trouble is a very good asset, especially in the playoffs. He’s 23 years old.

What has PG13 done lately? Besides shooting below 30%. How many triple doubles this season? Less than Julius. How many double doubles?

We need to sign one FA star this offseason, not two. PG13 is not at the top of anyone’s list after this season. If he takes a serious pay cut? Sure.

[LeCalinou]

He hit the 20 PER mark for the season which is that borderline between good starter and all star.
Free throw rate at 43.7 is good for 90th percentile in the league.
60.8% TS is 8th amongst players with 25% usage who play atleast 25 mins/game.
The team is +3.8 with him on the court.

Its a mistake to make him an afterthought in free agency and its time the Lakers plan for a future with him in mind.

I couldn't agree more. He has performed well this season, I see the potential, but he needs to focus even better.
If he could provide closer to 85-90 % of the time, the way he performs now around 60% of the time (taking the whole season into consideration), he could be a great offensive second option.
Realistically, I think he'd be perfect as a facilitator from the top of the key / 3 point line for different sets like the Lakers run, and opportunistically create his own offense. Why? Because from that area of the floor, his combination of speed and force give him an edge over any one.
If he were the main focus of the offense, he would become predictable since he still lacks enough counters and 2nd counters for when defenses anticipate his moves, but running the half-court offense through him puts him a position to excel.

That being said, I think Paul George fits the current roster pretty well. For several reasons:
- the team identity can still be forged on the fast break, giving plenty of opportunities to Ball, George, Ingram, Kuzma, Randle to run as soon as they have the ball.
- have George as a iso scorer or offense, but mostly at the end of games
- run pick and roll'n'rolls / pick'n'pops with Ingram and Randle as ball handlers
- use set plays to create balance and make sure all players are involved

[stan francisco]

The "stats" are great..... how does he fit with what we're doing this offseason? That's the question for me. He's very good at one thing offensively. Getting PG or LeBron takes away his lesser talents of distributing so we're left with someone who needs isolation and room to work 1 on 1. That's what a feature player typically does. Is he a feature player if we get PG and Bron?

I'm not sold on him either and it's not as much about what he can do in a few ways. He's doing very well on a team that isn't going anywhere. Is he as impactful on a team expected to contend?

So let’s go back to the eye test if you don’t like stats.

Do you watch the games he plays? Have you watched PG lately? Just wondering. He’s a force. PG is not.

How do you square paying more for a lesser impact has-been over a 23 year old stud who bullies the whole league in the paint and can switch to 1-5 on defense? Why is he worth more than Julius? By the eye test or stats, same answer. You don’t.

LBJ then Julius, then discounted 1+1 team option for PG. That’s the FA priority list.

Also, re-sign Lopez and Caruso and Wear and let IT go to a bottom dweller.

[Landsberger]

The "stats" are great..... how does he fit with what we're doing this offseason? That's the question for me. He's very good at one thing offensively. Getting PG or LeBron takes away his lesser talents of distributing so we're left with someone who needs isolation and room to work 1 on 1. That's what a feature player typically does. Is he a feature player if we get PG and Bron?

I'm not sold on him either and it's not as much about what he can do in a few ways. He's doing very well on a team that isn't going anywhere. Is he as impactful on a team expected to contend?

So let’s go back to the eye test if you don’t like stats.

Do you watch the games he plays? Have you watched PG lately? Just wondering. He’s a force. PG is not.

How do you square paying more for a lesser impact has-been over a 23 year old stud who bullies the whole league in the paint and can switch to 1-5 on defense? Why is he worth more than Julius? By the eye test or stats, same answer. You don’t.

LBJ then Julius, then discounted 1+1 team option for PG. That’s the FA priority list.

Also, re-sign Lopez and Caruso and Wear and let IT go to a bottom dweller.

We see it differently. I don't think he's a central player on a true contender. His game is too limited. I don't see his defense the way you do either. I agree he is very good in the open court however his interior defense is not that great and he still fails to get back a lot.

Stats: I don't see the correlation between his stats this year in this situation and next year when the team will be largely different. Stats are the result of a dynamic condition that will be changing significantly. Projecting them from this situation to one that you don't know is something I can't get my arms around. They are rearward looking recordings of what happened. To make them projectable into the future you would need a massive database of relevant variables to rely on to do that. That said, he's had a great statistical year in several categories. Look at his shooting beyond 0-3' and compare that to where he's been in previous years in similar situations to see that there is little progress and actually some regression.

Now for PG. We agree there. That's not the point however. Magic and Co. probably don't agree with us. My point is that they want him and if LeBron is interested he will be here as well. Additionally, my point is how does this "bully" who does one thing on offense very well coexist in that scenario? He doesn't space the floor. He's not a catch and shoot guy and he's not going to be set up nearly as much as he is now. That scenario removes a lot of what you claim he is. I don't see us tossing him the ball and clearing the side for him with Bron and PG on the floor very often. Kuzma is a much better fit at the 4 with those guys than Randle. Slamming together a bunch of players who don't fit because of rearward looking stats is a dangerous way to build a team..... especially when you are maxing out a lot of guys for 4 years. If you don't balance that group then you're stuck for several years. We need to build with a balance approach and not be overly attached to "our guys".

Finally, Randle has had a good year. It's a contract year. Based on the 3 years he's played here I've seen no real progression in anything other than his shooting % at the hoop and his decision making to not try and score from places he can't. The rest is about the same and his curve upward is typical for young guys in their 3rd/4th year. I think he's at the top of his value curve right now. I won't be unhappy if we keep him but I still don't think Randle will be the focus of a deep run playoff team..... his deal this offseason will pay him like one however.

[stan francisco]

The "stats" are great..... how does he fit with what we're doing this offseason? That's the question for me. He's very good at one thing offensively. Getting PG or LeBron takes away his lesser talents of distributing so we're left with someone who needs isolation and room to work 1 on 1. That's what a feature player typically does. Is he a feature player if we get PG and Bron?

I'm not sold on him either and it's not as much about what he can do in a few ways. He's doing very well on a team that isn't going anywhere. Is he as impactful on a team expected to contend?

So let’s go back to the eye test if you don’t like stats.

Do you watch the games he plays? Have you watched PG lately? Just wondering. He’s a force. PG is not.

How do you square paying more for a lesser impact has-been over a 23 year old stud who bullies the whole league in the paint and can switch to 1-5 on defense? Why is he worth more than Julius? By the eye test or stats, same answer. You don’t.

LBJ then Julius, then discounted 1+1 team option for PG. That’s the FA priority list.

Also, re-sign Lopez and Caruso and Wear and let IT go to a bottom dweller.

We see it differently. I don't think he's a central player on a true contender. His game is too limited. I don't see his defense the way you do either. I agree he is very good in the open court however his interior defense is not that great and he still fails to get back a lot.

Stats: I don't see the correlation between his stats this year in this situation and next year when the team will be largely different. Stats are the result of a dynamic condition that will be changing significantly. Projecting them from this situation to one that you don't know is something I can't get my arms around. They are rearward looking recordings of what happened. To make them projectable into the future you would need a massive database of relevant variables to rely on to do that. That said, he's had a great statistical year in several categories. Look at his shooting beyond 0-3' and compare that to where he's been in previous years in similar situations to see that there is little progress and actually some regression.

Now for PG. We agree there. That's not the point however. Magic and Co. probably don't agree with us. My point is that they want him and if LeBron is interested he will be here as well. Additionally, my point is how does this "bully" who does one thing on offense very well coexist in that scenario? He doesn't space the floor. He's not a catch and shoot guy and he's not going to be set up nearly as much as he is now. That scenario removes a lot of what you claim he is. I don't see us tossing him the ball and clearing the side for him with Bron and PG on the floor very often. Kuzma is a much better fit at the 4 with those guys than Randle. Slamming together a bunch of players who don't fit because of rearward looking stats is a dangerous way to build a team..... especially when you are maxing out a lot of guys for 4 years. If you don't balance that group then you're stuck for several years. We need to build with a balance approach and not be overly attached to "our guys".

Finally, Randle has had a good year. It's a contract year. Based on the 3 years he's played here I've seen no real progression in anything other than his shooting % at the hoop and his decision making to not try and score from places he can't. The rest is about the same and his curve upward is typical for young guys in their 3rd/4th year. I think he's at the top of his value curve right now. I won't be unhappy if we keep him but I still don't think Randle will be the focus of a deep run playoff team..... his deal this offseason will pay him like one however.

Do you always ut words in people’s mouth then argue against it? I never said he was a central player. Who said he’d be the focus of a deep playoffs run? I specifically said I don’t think he’s a franchise player. I see him as a third or probably fourth best player on our team next season, but this is the first season he’s not injured (broken leg) or watching Kobe chuck or playing in the BS system. Contract year over performing is for vets. He’s 23, and there’s reason to believe he will keep shooting the same high percentage under the rim and getting opposing bigs in foul trouble. LBJ on Julius: “He’s been doing that to everyone lately”. Right now every opponent double teams him. Surrounded by Ball, Hart, Ingram, Kuzma, LBJ... They can make open shots, and if ball dominant LBJ comes here, JR will be single covered. You do the math. I’m done playing argument whack-a-mole. Argue what’s written, please. Don’t make junk up.

[Landsberger]

So let’s go back to the eye test if you don’t like stats.

Do you watch the games he plays? Have you watched PG lately? Just wondering. He’s a force. PG is not.

How do you square paying more for a lesser impact has-been over a 23 year old stud who bullies the whole league in the paint and can switch to 1-5 on defense? Why is he worth more than Julius? By the eye test or stats, same answer. You don’t.

LBJ then Julius, then discounted 1+1 team option for PG. That’s the FA priority list.

Also, re-sign Lopez and Caruso and Wear and let IT go to a bottom dweller.

We see it differently. I don't think he's a central player on a true contender. His game is too limited. I don't see his defense the way you do either. I agree he is very good in the open court however his interior defense is not that great and he still fails to get back a lot.

Stats: I don't see the correlation between his stats this year in this situation and next year when the team will be largely different. Stats are the result of a dynamic condition that will be changing significantly. Projecting them from this situation to one that you don't know is something I can't get my arms around. They are rearward looking recordings of what happened. To make them projectable into the future you would need a massive database of relevant variables to rely on to do that. That said, he's had a great statistical year in several categories. Look at his shooting beyond 0-3' and compare that to where he's been in previous years in similar situations to see that there is little progress and actually some regression.

Now for PG. We agree there. That's not the point however. Magic and Co. probably don't agree with us. My point is that they want him and if LeBron is interested he will be here as well. Additionally, my point is how does this "bully" who does one thing on offense very well coexist in that scenario? He doesn't space the floor. He's not a catch and shoot guy and he's not going to be set up nearly as much as he is now. That scenario removes a lot of what you claim he is. I don't see us tossing him the ball and clearing the side for him with Bron and PG on the floor very often. Kuzma is a much better fit at the 4 with those guys than Randle. Slamming together a bunch of players who don't fit because of rearward looking stats is a dangerous way to build a team..... especially when you are maxing out a lot of guys for 4 years. If you don't balance that group then you're stuck for several years. We need to build with a balance approach and not be overly attached to "our guys".

Finally, Randle has had a good year. It's a contract year. Based on the 3 years he's played here I've seen no real progression in anything other than his shooting % at the hoop and his decision making to not try and score from places he can't. The rest is about the same and his curve upward is typical for young guys in their 3rd/4th year. I think he's at the top of his value curve right now. I won't be unhappy if we keep him but I still don't think Randle will be the focus of a deep run playoff team..... his deal this offseason will pay him like one however.

Do you always ut words in people’s mouth then argue against it? I never said he was a central player. Who said he’d be the focus of a deep playoffs run? I specifically said I don’t think he’s a franchise player. I see him as a third or probably fourth best player on our team next season, but this is the first season he’s not injured (broken leg) or watching Kobe chuck or playing in the BS system. Contract year over performing is for vets. He’s 23, and there’s reason to believe he will keep shooting the same high percentage under the rim and getting opposing bigs in foul trouble. LBJ on Julius: “He’s been doing that to everyone lately”. Right now every opponent double teams him. Surrounded by Ball, Hart, Ingram, Kuzma, LBJ... They can make open shots, and if ball dominant LBJ comes here, JR will be single covered. You do the math. I’m done playing argument whack-a-mole. Argue what’s written, please. Don’t make junk up.

Don't make junk up?!.... dude you need to read. I said it! If we re-sign him it will be for primary player money. Now you said he's a 3rd or 4th option. That's my point. Paying him big $$ to be a 4th option doesn't make sense to me.

For the record I wasn't arguing with you. Insecure much?

I don't see him as a central player on a contender. That's how I started my response to you. You just said he's a 3rd or 4th option next year. So on that we agree. We agree on PG however I think if he wants to be here we will oblige him. Where we don't agree is that I'd rather have a rookie deal Kuzma at the 4 who can spread the floor over Randle on a near max deal. We can get more fill in the gaps guys if we do that IMHO.

[stan francisco]

Read again. I’m glad you agree with me. You’re repeating much of what I’ve said in this thread and shrouding it as rebuttal to my opinions that I don’t have. Insecure? No.

Let’s talk basketball.

[Landsberger]

Read again. I’m glad you agree with me. You’re repeating much of what I’ve said in this thread and shrouding it as rebuttal to my opinions that I don’t have. Insecure? No.

Let’s talk basketball.

It should be an interesting offseason (understatement). Many options.... many opportunities to get it right and to get it wrong. We need veteran leadership. I'm not sure PG is that. LeBron is but at what cost and for how long? Once that decision is made the other dominos will fall. I still expect a surprise trade coming. Too much smoke about signing and none about trading.

[LALifer49]

I value Kuzma more highly than Randle. Wouldn't give Randle more than 15, and I really like him. But ideally his role for us would be 6th man Lo type (not in playstyle but in terms of finishing games and having big role). I say this because I think Kuzma is too talented to come off the bench for the next several years, eventually we will have to choose, so I don't want to lock Randle into a max deal, and 15 mill would be a very tradeable contract down the line if that became necessary. Additionally it is easier to find a Center that fits next to Kuzma than next to Randle, who is not a full time center or we really wouldn't have an issue.

[Vae Victus]

I think the biggest concern that alot of Randle fans are glossing over is, what if we dont have a stretch 5 to pair with him? BroLo likes to float to the 3pt line ALOT, ever since he developed a solid 3pt shot, thereby conceding the paint to Randle to play bully ball. Which is annoying as **** since most nights he has a mismatch down low.

What if we dont resign BroLo cuz he wants to play for a contender for more money than we can possibly offer him, what if Bryant just doesnt cut it in the NBA, and what if we dont have a stretch 5 period? Playing Randle 32 mins a game at the C is NOT what i'd consider a good thing. Odds are we're gonna be playing typical big paint protectors who dont have great outside game, as those types are super easy to find than a unicorn.

If Randle is forced to share the paint or worse yet, have ANOTHER big man defender able to shade inside due to our 5 not being a floor spacer, what happens next? This could potentially tank Randle's stats/impact, as he simply currently doesnt have the tools to counter a packed paint. YOLO charging into a packed paint is NOT a smart option unless you get calls like Harden.

Any team that signs Randle needs to answer that question. How good would Randle look playing next to a typical big man? In the past it wasnt good (although he was young but still, playing with BroLo has been a HUGE difference space wise for Randle), and i dunno about the rest of ya, giving Randle more than 15+ mil a year scares the **** out of me if reverts back to Year 2/3 Randle efficiency.

Simply put, what teams out there would be able to maximize Randle due to having a 5 who can shoot 3s (ideally also a unicorn since Randle interior D is meh)? Philly (Embiid), New York (Porzingas), Nawlins (Cousins, Davis), Memphis (Gasol), Toronto (Ibaka), Indiana (Turner), Phoenix (Bender), Denver (Jokic), Dallas (Dirk, although after this year he's pretty much done).

Now which teams have cap space and need a PF? Dallas... and tbh signing Randle would be kinda dumb as theyre going nowhere. They can trot out a frontline of Dirk (i love the man, but he a fossil who can barely move now), Randle, and Barnes, but good god the D is gonna TERRIBAD. Also by signing Randle to big money theyve handcuffed themselves into finding a stretch 5 in order to make things work out the best for the latest major FA acquisition.

Now if Randle fans are confident that he's gonna develop a money Amare mid range J and/or a 3pt, ok then i see why theyre willing to pay him obscene amounts of money to retain him. The question is how many other teams out there are confident that Randle can develop further and do they want to PAY for his potential rather than the current tools that he's shown so far.

This is VERY tricky cuz signing Randle to big bucks (20+ mil) and him not developing an outside game is potential albatross disaster level mistake. A 15 mil a year Randle otoh can be a nice 1st big off the bench type who can bully 2nd units, perhaps a bit overpaid, but still usable and tradeable. However, does one want to tie up cap on good but not GREAT players? Have we not seen from numerous franchises making that mistake and taking themselves out of the FA hunt? When you pay players big bucks, it behooves you to make sure they FRANCHISE players.

Randle atm is NOT. He MIGHT (give him Amare J and Blake Griffin/BroLo 3 pt shot %) be one day, so... how much you wanna gamble on it?

Also i dont think he's got a big market. Let him go out there and see who's willing to overpay. I'm fairly confident there's no big market for him. Him and Jabari Parker are stuck in that no man's land, where sure plenty of team would LIKE to have them... but at specific price points, but their RFA status makes that impossible as their respective teams would ALSO like them at those reasonable price points too!

[stan francisco]

I think the biggest concern that alot of Randle fans are glossing over is, what if we dont have a stretch 5 to pair with him? BroLo likes to float to the 3pt line ALOT, ever since he developed a solid 3pt shot, thereby conceding the paint to Randle to play bully ball. Which is annoying as **** since most nights he has a mismatch down low.

What if we dont resign BroLo cuz he wants to play for a contender for more money than we can possibly offer him, what if Bryant just doesnt cut it in the NBA, and what if we dont have a stretch 5 period? Playing Randle 32 mins a game at the C is NOT what i'd consider a good thing. Odds are we're gonna be playing typical big paint protectors who dont have great outside game, as those types are super easy to find than a unicorn.

If Randle is forced to share the paint or worse yet, have ANOTHER big man defender able to shade inside due to our 5 not being a floor spacer, what happens next? This could potentially tank Randle's stats/impact, as he simply currently doesnt have the tools to counter a packed paint. YOLO charging into a packed paint is NOT a smart option unless you get calls like Harden.

Any team that signs Randle needs to answer that question. How good would Randle look playing next to a typical big man? In the past it wasnt good (although he was young but still, playing with BroLo has been a HUGE difference space wise for Randle), and i dunno about the rest of ya, giving Randle more than 15+ mil a year scares the **** out of me if reverts back to Year 2/3 Randle efficiency.

Simply put, what teams out there would be able to maximize Randle due to having a 5 who can shoot 3s (ideally also a unicorn since Randle interior D is meh)? Philly (Embiid), New York (Porzingas), Nawlins (Cousins, Davis), Memphis (Gasol), Toronto (Ibaka), Indiana (Turner), Phoenix (Bender), Denver (Jokic), Dallas (Dirk, although after this year he's pretty much done).

Now which teams have cap space and need a PF? Dallas... and tbh signing Randle would be kinda dumb as theyre going nowhere. They can trot out a frontline of Dirk (i love the man, but he a fossil who can barely move now), Randle, and Barnes, but good god the D is gonna TERRIBAD. Also by signing Randle to big money theyve handcuffed themselves into finding a stretch 5 in order to make things work out the best for the latest major FA acquisition.

Now if Randle fans are confident that he's gonna develop a money Amare mid range J and/or a 3pt, ok then i see why theyre willing to pay him obscene amounts of money to retain him. The question is how many other teams out there are confident that Randle can develop further and do they want to PAY for his potential rather than the current tools that he's shown so far.

This is VERY tricky cuz signing Randle to big bucks (20+ mil) and him not developing an outside game is potential albatross disaster level mistake. A 15 mil a year Randle otoh can be a nice 1st big off the bench type who can bully 2nd units, perhaps a bit overpaid, but still usable and tradeable. However, does one want to tie up cap on good but not GREAT players? Have we not seen from numerous franchises making that mistake and taking themselves out of the FA hunt? When you pay players big bucks, it behooves you to make sure they FRANCHISE players.

Randle atm is NOT. He MIGHT (give him Amare J and Blake Griffin/BroLo 3 pt shot %) be one day, so... how much you wanna gamble on it?

Also i dont think he's got a big market. Let him go out there and see who's willing to overpay. I'm fairly confident there's no big market for him. Him and Jabari Parker are stuck in that no man's land, where sure plenty of team would LIKE to have them... but at specific price points, but their RFA status makes that impossible as their respective teams would ALSO like them at those reasonable price points too!

Thomas Bryant is supposedly a deadly knock-down 3pt shooter but still young. Regardless, with Kuzma, Ingram, Hart, Ball spreading the floor, we can allow him to go to work one-on-one down low. It doesn’t have to be the five stretching. He is strong enough to hold his own without switching. With LBJ at the 4, he’ll stretch the floor, too.

Study Randle’s FG%. That’s where he’ll get paid. That’s what other coaches and GMs will have a hard time resisting.

With Lonzo leading the fast break his FG% might even improve from there next season. Less point forward duties will reduce his TOs.

Up to $18M would be okay with me, but I’m no GM. I think he’ll get a higher offer and bolt.

FG% is FG%.

[Vae Victus]

Thomas Bryant is supposedly a deadly knock-down 3pt shooter but still young. Regardless, with Kuzma, Ingram, Hart, Ball spreading the floor, we can allow him to go to work one-on-one down low. It doesn’t have to be the five stretching. He is strong enough to hold his own without switching. With LBJ at the 4, he’ll stretch the floor, too.

Study Randle’s FG%. That’s where he’ll get paid. That’s what other coaches and GMs will have a hard time resisting.

With Lonzo leading the fast break his FG% might even improve from there next season. Less point forward duties will reduce his TOs.

Up to $18M would be okay with me, but I’m no GM. I think he’ll get a higher offer and bolt.

FG% is FG%.

Randle's FG% is all well and nice, but if you look deeper he's doing all his damage in the paint. Again you're not answering the question that is burning in alot of people's minds.

If the paint is closed off, due to having an elite rim protector swatting fools left and right, which we would sure as **** will see in a playoff environment (gotta think big picture now), what does Randle do next to counter? I mean this point is mostly moot if someone like Thomas Bryant pans out and he can be an ideal partner for Randle, giving him the paint ala BroLo, allowing Randle to ISO his man. Then we just gotta worry about defense, can Bryant hold up (Randle is doing better lately but still can use ALOT of work on D). But what if we DONT have a stretch 5? Is it worth giving Randle all that money and banking that he'll get that elite mid or solid 3pt game? What elite stretch 5 is available in FA or in trade? Is it worth spending precious cap/assets in obtaining that elite stretch 5?

Thus it brings us back to the crux of the matter. Why spend all that money on gambling on Randle to further develop when we already have Kuzma. He's dirt cheap, he's looking like a very solid outside shooter, can finish on the run, needs some work on D though. Post move wise he's not as advanced but he's got way more tools than Randle to score against elite stifling defenses. Good ball movement means open 3s, good defense will shut off the paint more times than not due to having lengthy defenders able cover alot ground, but i dont care how fast those defenders are, they aint faster than a good pass to the open man. Take the money you woulda spent on Randle and spend it elsewhere (in order of preference PG13/LBJ/elite defensive big man).

Now of course if we get PG13 and LBJ then we basically have no money to grab an elite defensive big man. Hell we'll be lucky to keep Randle unless Maginka pulls some magic out of their ass in dumping Deng without giving up the farm, thus keeping Randle's RFA rights.

Now if we only grab say PG13 we still have alot of money leftover to grab that defensive 5. Noel is a bargain version thats UFA, Nurkic and Capella are nice young physical bigs who will help turn the paint into a fortress and gobble rebounds but sadly dont have outside games and are RFAs, so we'll have to make HOU/POR pay out the ass to keep em!

What looks better, which would you bet on?

C- Bryant, Zubac, if we're really lucky maybe a quality FA/trade stretch 5 that can play alot of mins
PF- Randle (big money pre-emptive offer or match on obscene offer sheet), Kuzma
SF- Ingram, Deng... LOL, draft pick or room exception
SG- PG13, Hart
PG- Lonzo, draft pick or room exception

or

C- Capella/Nurkic, Zubac, Bryant
PF- Kuzma, Randle (imo a decent chance he'll be forced to accept his Qualifying Offer), Deng (might as well throw him out here)
SF- Ingram, draft pick or room exception
SG- PG13, Hart
PG- Lonzo, draft pick or room exception

Money is roughly the same, as in Scenario 1 we're paying Randle big bux to KEEP HIM AT ALL COSTS!!11! However Scenario 2 we're going with a proven big muthafuqer in the middle owning the paint and PnR partner for our facilitators. Scenario 1 prays to almighty Bball god that Bryant or Randle develops massively to fill into their roles. Scenario 2, everyone has their defined role and no one gets in each other's ways.

The only time one has to think whether to match a large deal for Randle is if we whiff on both LBJ and PG13, then we're sitting on a ton of cap space with a thumb up our ass and Maginka running around like their hair is on fire.

I sincerely hope to Hay-Zeus, that Maginka can keep their **** together and not panic and overpay Randle. We dont need another anchor on our cap if he doesnt pan out. Lotto tickets are awesome when theyre cheap (draft pick) but when you gotta pay full price for em, they lose ALOT of luster. Remember remember Jordan Clarkson and how we all ended up rueing his deal.

[stan francisco]

Thomas Bryant is supposedly a deadly knock-down 3pt shooter but still young. Regardless, with Kuzma, Ingram, Hart, Ball spreading the floor, we can allow him to go to work one-on-one down low. It doesn’t have to be the five stretching. He is strong enough to hold his own without switching. With LBJ at the 4, he’ll stretch the floor, too.

Study Randle’s FG%. That’s where he’ll get paid. That’s what other coaches and GMs will have a hard time resisting.

With Lonzo leading the fast break his FG% might even improve from there next season. Less point forward duties will reduce his TOs.

Up to $18M would be okay with me, but I’m no GM. I think he’ll get a higher offer and bolt.

FG% is FG%.

Randle's FG% is all well and nice, but if you look deeper he's doing all his damage in the paint. Again you're not answering the question that is burning in alot of people's minds.

If the paint is closed off, due to having an elite rim protector swatting fools left and right, which we would sure as **** will see in a playoff environment (gotta think big picture now), what does Randle do next to counter? I mean this point is mostly moot if someone like Thomas Bryant pans out and he can be an ideal partner for Randle, giving him the paint ala BroLo, allowing Randle to ISO his man. Then we just gotta worry about defense, can Bryant hold up (Randle is doing better lately but still can use ALOT of work on D). But what if we DONT have a stretch 5? Is it worth giving Randle all that money and banking that he'll get that elite mid or solid 3pt game? What elite stretch 5 is available in FA or in trade? Is it worth spending precious cap/assets in obtaining that elite stretch 5?

Thus it brings us back to the crux of the matter. Why spend all that money on gambling on Randle to further develop when we already have Kuzma. He's dirt cheap, he's looking like a very solid outside shooter, can finish on the run, needs some work on D though. Post move wise he's not as advanced but he's got way more tools than Randle to score against elite stifling defenses. Good ball movement means open 3s, good defense will shut off the paint more times than not due to having lengthy defenders able cover alot ground, but i dont care how fast those defenders are, they aint faster than a good pass to the open man. Take the money you woulda spent on Randle and spend it elsewhere (in order of preference PG13/LBJ/elite defensive big man).

Now of course if we get PG13 and LBJ then we basically have no money to grab an elite defensive big man. Hell we'll be lucky to keep Randle unless Maginka pulls some magic out of their ass in dumping Deng without giving up the farm, thus keeping Randle's RFA rights.

Now if we only grab say PG13 we still have alot of money leftover to grab that defensive 5. Noel is a bargain version thats UFA, Nurkic and Capella are nice young physical bigs who will help turn the paint into a fortress and gobble rebounds but sadly dont have outside games and are RFAs, so we'll have to make HOU/POR pay out the ass to keep em!

What looks better, which would you bet on?

C- Bryant, Zubac, if we're really lucky maybe a quality FA/trade stretch 5 that can play alot of mins
PF- Randle (big money pre-emptive offer or match on obscene offer sheet), Kuzma
SF- Ingram, Deng... LOL, draft pick or room exception
SG- PG13, Hart
PG- Lonzo, draft pick or room exception

or

C- Capella/Nurkic, Zubac, Bryant
PF- Kuzma, Randle (imo a decent chance he'll be forced to accept his Qualifying Offer), Deng (might as well throw him out here)
SF- Ingram, draft pick or room exception
SG- PG13, Hart
PG- Lonzo, draft pick or room exception

Money is roughly the same, as in Scenario 1 we're paying Randle big bux to KEEP HIM AT ALL COSTS!!11! However Scenario 2 we're going with a proven big muthafuqer in the middle owning the paint and PnR partner for our facilitators. Scenario 1 prays to almighty Bball god that Bryant or Randle develops massively to fill into their roles. Scenario 2, everyone has their defined role and no one gets in each other's ways.

The only time one has to think whether to match a large deal for Randle is if we whiff on both LBJ and PG13, then we're sitting on a ton of cap space with a thumb up our ass and Maginka running around like their hair is on fire.

I sincerely hope to Hay-Zeus, that Maginka can keep their **** together and not panic and overpay Randle. We dont need another anchor on our cap if he doesnt pan out. Lotto tickets are awesome when theyre cheap (draft pick) but when you gotta pay full price for em, they lose ALOT of luster. Remember remember Jordan Clarkson and how we all ended up rueing his deal.

Good post. First off, I’ve been the first to say some other team will likely offer him too much and he’ll go. We shouldn’t keep him at all cost. We also should realize that he’s 23 and no power forward out there looks forward to guarding him. He hurts people when he’s in beast mode. Gets them in foul trouble. That’s value. So is high FG%.

Stretch 5. D Green is a stretch 5. I assume Randle will be as good a 3pt shooter in a few years but that’s speculation. If LBJ joins, that also reduces our need for Randle’s bully factor. But let’s not forget that Randle is now a 20-10 player. Put him next to LBJ and whom would you double team down low? Both are good passers and cutters. Nurkic is not a 20-10 player. Capela is not. I’d happily have either one here at the right price but I don’t know if they’ll outplay a 25 year old Randle in two years. Can Randle set hard screens? You bet. Can he be had for cheaper than Capela and Nurkic? Probably.

Lonzo, Caruso, Hart
Ingram, Hart
Kuzma, Ingram (FA)
Randle, Kuzma, Frye, Wear
Lopez, Zubac, Randle, Bryant

Lopez has proven that he can play defense when he wants to, and his low post offense has been great lately. Plus, he can shoot the three.

That lineup will take us to the playoffs next season. I’m not assuming we’ll be contenders next season. Maybe the following one.

If LBJ, less need for Randle. If Leonard, Randle will be traded to the Spurs. Pop loves him.

Many moving parts. This is probably why Pelinka has examined over 700 trade scenarios which is why I have trust they will make the right decision.

In either case, my main point is that I’d rather re-sign Randle for up to $18M than over paying for Paul George.