Situation Unthinkable: The Farm for AD + Hill
Posted: Tue Feb 5, 2019 8:43 am
Ok so i was talking with a friend about how (Please Use More Appropriate Word) this situation is and how outrageous the reported offered package was. Eating Hill, to me, was a red line that CANNOT be crossed as it would annihilate payroll flexibility next year to build around a potential LBJ + AD dynamic duo.
However my friend offered up an interesting point. It seems like NOP cant take ALL of the kids, we'll have a few leftover like Hart (due to his down season), Svi, Wagner, and Bonga, due to NOP not having enough roster spots. Use the remaining kids to dump Hill for pure cap space, during an offseason where a crapton of teams have capspace and not everyone is gonna git a star. If youre a team that has no FA aspirations, eating expiring Hill + getting 2 or 3 of Hart, Svi, Wagner, or Bonga is a helluva steal, as they take cheap fliers and have their bird rights if they pan out. Also post AD trade, if the team is serious about going after a 3rd star FA, to clear as much cap as possible EVERYONE is being renounced anyway.
So i just played around with capulator. Best case scenario (in this messed up bull situation) is a deal of KCP, Beasley, Ingram, Kuz, Lonzo, Zubac, 2 unprotected FRPs for AD + Hill
Remaining lineup is
C- McGee, Chandler, Wagner
PF- AD, Jabari Parker? (maybe this is why his name got randomly floated)
SF- Lebron, Hill, Svi
SG- Hart, Lance
PG- Rondo, Caruso, Bonga
Thin bench as expected, maybe get 2 decent buyout FAs to plug gaps, best case would be Jabari Parker and Jeremy Lin. Throw a scare in GSW taking em to 6 in the first round and take our L with dignity. GSW romps to a 3peat.
Offseason, ideally use Wagner, Bonga, and Svi (he's not necessary to get traded he's unguaranteed) to purge Hill for pure cap space. Keep Hart. No draft picks. Have according to Capulator, 28.53m in cap space. Add another mil cuz cap might go up to 109m and not 108m (which is what Capulator uses) and add another 888k due to getting rid of a roster charge via signing a FA. So call it 30.4m give or take 100k. HOWEVER, if Hart is needed to outright purge Hill, then you add another 1.05m to the cap, conversely maybe Wagner is kept instead, so he slots in at C while AD goes to PF.
http://www.shamsports.com/capulator?id=11605188545c594a444d1d7605325305
Now you might say, SEE!!! WE DONT HAVE A 30% MAX SLOT TO LURE A TOP FLIGHT FA!!! Which was EXACTLY my position initially.
However... in this scenario LBJ + AD are secure... might a 3rd superstar FA come join now and do a KD special 1+1 for whatever we have left taking a tiny haircut? Doesnt having both LBJ + AD VASTLY INCREASE the odds of a superstar joining LA, rather than running the risk of LA being unable to trade for AD due to Ainge uncharacteristically going over the top and throwing a kitchen sink offer of his own? I mean, personally I'D roll the dice and dare Ainge to go ham and throw a crazy deal for AD during the offseason, then sign a different max FA and trade the kids for a 3rd star. However, the whole point is that getting Hill isnt an automatic kiss of death to our cap.
Maybe this is the plan? Go with the sure thing in AD and get creative in dumping Hill with current remaining parts, and roll with 3 Superstars and no bench. Even in a best case scenario of KD/Kawhi signing during FA... the team SHOULD be throwing the kitchen sink at NOP in order to get AD and beat out a potential Tatum + Brown + MEM/SAC/LAC FRP mega package, which is imo the ONLY package that trumps the insane package we're trying to bundle together. Once such a package is given up for AD... at best the team would have Hart/Zubac as the last dudes standing to fill out the bench?
Is Hart/Zubac gonna be the ones stopping the Lakers from going with a bird in hand (AD) instead of HOPING to get 2 from the bush (KD/Kawhi + AD).
After some thought... maybe... this is the smarter play? It seems counterintuitive, due to the INSANE amount of value given up for a freaking superstar demanding out, but maybe the factors going into 2019 FA shows a very optimal situation where a 3rd star would beat on the door to take a small paycut to join LBJ + AD... maybe... who knows... THIS situation is supposed to be what Magic thrives in.
God just dont give up 4 straight unprotected FRPs + pick swaps during years they dont convey... that **** gives me nightmares.
However my friend offered up an interesting point. It seems like NOP cant take ALL of the kids, we'll have a few leftover like Hart (due to his down season), Svi, Wagner, and Bonga, due to NOP not having enough roster spots. Use the remaining kids to dump Hill for pure cap space, during an offseason where a crapton of teams have capspace and not everyone is gonna git a star. If youre a team that has no FA aspirations, eating expiring Hill + getting 2 or 3 of Hart, Svi, Wagner, or Bonga is a helluva steal, as they take cheap fliers and have their bird rights if they pan out. Also post AD trade, if the team is serious about going after a 3rd star FA, to clear as much cap as possible EVERYONE is being renounced anyway.
So i just played around with capulator. Best case scenario (in this messed up bull situation) is a deal of KCP, Beasley, Ingram, Kuz, Lonzo, Zubac, 2 unprotected FRPs for AD + Hill
Remaining lineup is
C- McGee, Chandler, Wagner
PF- AD, Jabari Parker? (maybe this is why his name got randomly floated)
SF- Lebron, Hill, Svi
SG- Hart, Lance
PG- Rondo, Caruso, Bonga
Thin bench as expected, maybe get 2 decent buyout FAs to plug gaps, best case would be Jabari Parker and Jeremy Lin. Throw a scare in GSW taking em to 6 in the first round and take our L with dignity. GSW romps to a 3peat.
Offseason, ideally use Wagner, Bonga, and Svi (he's not necessary to get traded he's unguaranteed) to purge Hill for pure cap space. Keep Hart. No draft picks. Have according to Capulator, 28.53m in cap space. Add another mil cuz cap might go up to 109m and not 108m (which is what Capulator uses) and add another 888k due to getting rid of a roster charge via signing a FA. So call it 30.4m give or take 100k. HOWEVER, if Hart is needed to outright purge Hill, then you add another 1.05m to the cap, conversely maybe Wagner is kept instead, so he slots in at C while AD goes to PF.
http://www.shamsports.com/capulator?id=11605188545c594a444d1d7605325305
Now you might say, SEE!!! WE DONT HAVE A 30% MAX SLOT TO LURE A TOP FLIGHT FA!!! Which was EXACTLY my position initially.
However... in this scenario LBJ + AD are secure... might a 3rd superstar FA come join now and do a KD special 1+1 for whatever we have left taking a tiny haircut? Doesnt having both LBJ + AD VASTLY INCREASE the odds of a superstar joining LA, rather than running the risk of LA being unable to trade for AD due to Ainge uncharacteristically going over the top and throwing a kitchen sink offer of his own? I mean, personally I'D roll the dice and dare Ainge to go ham and throw a crazy deal for AD during the offseason, then sign a different max FA and trade the kids for a 3rd star. However, the whole point is that getting Hill isnt an automatic kiss of death to our cap.
Maybe this is the plan? Go with the sure thing in AD and get creative in dumping Hill with current remaining parts, and roll with 3 Superstars and no bench. Even in a best case scenario of KD/Kawhi signing during FA... the team SHOULD be throwing the kitchen sink at NOP in order to get AD and beat out a potential Tatum + Brown + MEM/SAC/LAC FRP mega package, which is imo the ONLY package that trumps the insane package we're trying to bundle together. Once such a package is given up for AD... at best the team would have Hart/Zubac as the last dudes standing to fill out the bench?
Is Hart/Zubac gonna be the ones stopping the Lakers from going with a bird in hand (AD) instead of HOPING to get 2 from the bush (KD/Kawhi + AD).
After some thought... maybe... this is the smarter play? It seems counterintuitive, due to the INSANE amount of value given up for a freaking superstar demanding out, but maybe the factors going into 2019 FA shows a very optimal situation where a 3rd star would beat on the door to take a small paycut to join LBJ + AD... maybe... who knows... THIS situation is supposed to be what Magic thrives in.
God just dont give up 4 straight unprotected FRPs + pick swaps during years they dont convey... that **** gives me nightmares.