The Elephant In The Room: This Summer
Posted: Sat Mar 9, 2019 7:59 pm
With only 17 games left and us basically tanking for the sixth season in a row (ugh), I think it's seriously time to start evaluating our options going forward and the direction that this franchise will be taking.
I've listened to a lot of different podcasts from around the NBA the last couple days: The Ringer NBA Pods, Zach Lowe, Brian Windhorst, etc and of course the Lakers' Summer Plans are one of the main talking points. And the more I think about it, the more concerned I become. You generally have an idea by this point in the season who's going to get who. And while there still are avenues where I could see the free agents signing with us, a lot of it relies on other dominoes to fall. Let's run through the "scenario planning," as Brian Windhorst did on his podcast.
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The Big Fish:
Klay Thompson: I could absolutely see him signing here. Mychal Thompson has said it on radio that if Golden State didn't come correct or Klay couldn't be a Warrior, he'd obviously want to be a Laker. However, with so much uncertainty around Durant, Green & Cousins, you have to think a max contract extension will be on Klay's doorstep the second free agency opens. And I'm sure they've already had those wink wink discussions by this point. If that happens, there's no way Klay Thompson becomes a Laker.
Kyrie Irving: He's becoming the most likely Laker addition in my opinion, especially if the Lakers land Anthony Davis prior to free agency. However, it still doesn't remain likely. The Lakers can sell him on an immediate future of a big 3 of him, LeBron & Davis. They can also sell him on a future in 3-4 years of him at 30 years old & Anthony Davis at 29 years old to lead the future of the Lakers through the next decade. Chris Haynes (who's plugged in with LeBron) has talked about LeBron and how he's been wanting to "pass the torch and control of the team," to someone and has referenced Anthony Davis as someone he'd be willing to do that for. I also think he'd do the same with Kyrie, considering their past and what both have been through since they left each other. However, for this to happen, Anthony Davis would have to be traded here (will the Pelicans do business with LA even if Boston doesn't put Tatum on the table?), and Kyrie would have to pass down the ideas of teaming with Durant in New York and re-signing with the Celtics. Again, I think Irving is the most likely superstar that agrees to come, but I don't put the chances very high of that happening.
Kawhi Leonard: Everyone seems to think that it's a foregone conclusion he signs with the Clippers or re-signs with Toronto. However, Cris Carter is one of the only other "names" under his representation group and he still says the Lakers are very much in play. LeBron needs to go to him and express that same sentiment about passing control of the team to him and really put heavy recruiting into Kawhi. Ramona Shelburne has talked that she also still thinks Kawhi would come here but he would have to feel wanted for him to do so. Magic and LeBron need to earn their money with Kawhi. Even so, I still put the chances as not very likely with Kawhi.
Kevin Durant: Everyone has talked about New York and if he's leaving Golden State, you'd have to imagine he's going to the Knicks. But, can that be guaranteed with a guy like KD? If LeBron comes to him and puts on a heavy recruiting pitch and makes him feel wanted, I could see a guy like KD in an "impulse buy" type of way signing with the Lakers. Fat chance though that it doesn't happen.
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What about the next tier of guys?
Kemba Walker: It was on the wiretap a few days ago that there's now a real possibility that Walker leaves. With the market the way it is and half the league having max cap space, he'll absolutely get a 4-year max. With Charlotte's cap sheet the way it is (Batum, Williams, Zeller, MKG, Biyombo all on the books next year for major money), you'd have to think there'd be some hesitation from Charlotte's perspective to offer the full max. Even if they did, what avenues do Mitch Kupchak and Michael Jordan have of getting better? As far as the Lakers are concerned, I could absolutely see Kemba being a guy to come here. But, if the Lakers wait on the big free agents for a day or two and then don't recruit him hard until those other dominoes fall, you'd have to imagine that would rub him the wrong way. If the Lakers act fast and make him a significant priority, if he leaves Charlotte, I think he's the most realistic option. Other concerns: He'll be 29 in May, was it really worth it to give up flexibility last off-season with Randle and giving up Russell to land Kemba Walker? Is that a big enough splash to justify what's gone on the last two years of hoarding "sacred" cap space?
Khris Middleton: He'd be a great fit next to LeBron and the young guys, but there's absolutely no way Milwaukee pays Bledsoe what they did and then low ball Middleton. Not happening.
Tobias Harris: He's not a max player in my opinion and I don't think Philadelphia gives up what they did to let him walk. He'll get the max from Philadelphia.
Jimmy Butler: I think Brooklyn will come after him hard from Day 1, but if the Lakers are willing to put a max offer out to him, you'd have to imagine he'd consider the Lakers big time. He's been rumoured to want to play with the Lakers ever since he was in Chicago and coming up on restricted free agency. However, do we want Jimmy Butler on a max deal for 4 years? That's crippling considering LeBron's age and Butler isn't good enough to lead the young core if LeBron slows down or deals with missed games.
The Rest: With half the league having cap space, who else has the capability to get a max? My guesses are..
D'Angelo Russell - The Lakers front office would never extend an offer sheet because of ego alone. No way they ever admit that mistake.
Julius Randle - Copy and paste with Russell. I don't think he'll get the max, but I can certainly see a team with $20-25M in cap space spending it on Randle. Imagine him with Porzingis and Luka? Goodness.
Nikola Vucevic - He'll get big time money. Maybe not a full max, but close to it. I could see a 4 year deal starting at $25M for him.
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Anthony Davis:
This shouldn't be the first option but with no real indication at this point that any major free agents are coming, it will be. The Lakers have to land him by the draft in my opinion. And I say it shouldn't be the first option because the Lakers have passed up the flexibility on other guys (Randle, Russell, Nance) for the ability to land a free agent and keep the core young guys (Ingram, Ball, Kuzma, Hart). If you're trading for Anthony Davis, most of the young guys are going unless we somehow land the #1 pick and that's not likely at all.
If we land him, that's a big weight lifted off the franchise's shoulders. We'd still have significant space to fill out the roster with roleplayers or sign one of the big free agents. However, this totally relies on the Pelicans doing business with us and Boston not putting Jason Tatum on the table. Ingram was closing that gap significantly on Tatum, but him being out for the rest of the season puts a fork in that now. Tatum, right or wrong, is looked at as the prized possession by New Orleans or else they would have made the deal with us around the deadline.
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Prediction Time:
So, what happens? If Boston gambles or gets an assurance from Kyrie that he's staying if they land Davis, and that happens, where does that leave the Lakers? That takes off 2 of the potential targets (Irving, Davis) with no clear lane to any of the other major guys. Do we prepare an offer for Kemba Walker and make him the big signing or do we round out the roster with players on solid deals?
OR:
The Elephant In The Room: What if Davis gets traded to Boston and Klutch still tells the Lakers that Davis isn't staying past the one year in Boston? I could absolutely see the Lakers making a stupid decision to offer a one year massive deal to DeMarcus Cousins and try to sign players with better shooting ability on 1-year deals. That scenario basically puts us in the exact same position next year that we were in this year, with a broken culture, and LeBron another year older. Scary thought. And based on the last two years of evidence, you have to imagine this is the road the Lakers' inexperienced front office takes. I truly don't think they understand or grasp the concept that they can sign players on team-friendly deals and then make the corresponding moves to trade them if you get the agreements from the big time players you're interested in.
My predictions are as follows:
- Klay Thompson re-signs on a max contract.
- Durant signs in New York, Jimmy Butler joins him.
- Kyrie eventually remains with the Celtics, possibly on a one year deal.
- Boston decides to gamble and trades Anthony Davis to Boston.
- Kawhi signs with the Clippers.
- Harris re-signs with Philadelphia.
- Middleton re-signs with Milwaukee.
So if the Lakers get none of the big fish, what route do they go? How do you predict this summer playing out? While it's a little early for us to be discussing this, the Lakers front office needs to be doing this at the moment. Do they have the front office experience to know? Do they have the knowledge to formulate the plans now and not just watch playoff games and build their team "to beat Golden State," when they only play the Warriors 4 out of 82 games?
Personally, I'd prioritize depth moves with players on team-friendly deals. There's a ton of them out there. My favorites:
- Darren Collison: Could start in the back court with Lonzo and fit as a solid defender and good shooter. Could be had for $10-12M on a 2-3 year deal, with maybe a partial guarantee on the 3rd season. He's shot over 40% from 3PT over the last 4 seasons.
- Danny Green: Same type of deal as Collison, I would assume. Strong wing defender and has shot the lights out this season for Toronto. I've wanted him on the Lakers forever.
- Bojan Bogdanovic: 2-3 year deal, I would assume around $12-15M a season. He'll be in his Age 30 season next year, which should scare teams off from offering massive deals. If he slips through the cracks, he's someone we should seriously consider.
- Nikola Vucevic: If he somehow doesn't get close to max offers and he's available for anything in the $12-20M range, the Lakers should jump on it and not think twice.
- Trevor Ariza: You'd have to assume Phoenix was his last big pay day. Bring him home on a 2 year deal starting around the room exception, $5-7M a season.
- Terrence Ross: Someone we should have went after early in the season, I would imagine he'll get something like $10-12M a season on a 2-3 year deal.
- Nikola Mirotic: Have to imagine the Jazz re-sign him, but if he's available on a good deal, the Lakers should pursue him.
- J.J. Reddick: Late in his career, still does the same thing everywhere he goes: Makes 3's. The Lakers haven't really had a guy that come off screens and knock down shots. He's also a guy that draws so much attention, when he's moving around screens like crazy, it creates fantastic opportunities on the weak side for open lay-ups, open dunks, open shots. Imagine Reddick running around screens with LeBron handling the ball and Kuzma/Ingram cutting to the basket? Probably a 1-2 year deal worth $10-12M a season.
- Patrick Beverley: This team needs a defender in the back court and his 3PT shooting ability has improved significantly. You hate him when he's not on your team, but if we could weaken the Clippers and bring him on, he'd be such a huge pick-up. Someone who instantly changes the culture of the team and gave us an insurance policy on Lonzo Ball. 2-3 year deal around $8-10M a season would be his market, I would imagine.
- Mike Scott: He's been massive with Philadelphia. A 2-3 year deal around $6-8M a season would be a great contract for him. He can play some small ball 5 and I like his toughness. Shooting 43% with the 76ers on 4.8 attempts per game. They played him at the small ball 5 against DaMarcus Cousins and the Warriors and caused huge problems for them.
- Ed Davis: Why the Lakers let him go to begin with a couple years ago, I have no idea. He's productive every place he goes. Such a good defender, very good in the locker room, etc.
- Wayne Ellington: I'm sure it wouldn't take much to get him. 1-2 year deal worth $5M a season? Which is basically the room exception.
- Brook Lopez: Would the front office admit another mistake? 2-3 year deal worth $6-10M a season would be a great get for the Lakers.
- Other Room Exception/Minimum candidates: Cory Joseph, Troy Daniels, Ian Clark, Austin Rivers, Wes Matthews, Seth Curry, Ish Smith, Reggie Bullock, DeMarre Carroll, Anthony Tolliver, Thabo Sefolosha, DeAndre Jordan, Robin Lopez, Amir Johnson, Pau Gasol, Boban.
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Imagine if this team came away with Vucevic, Darren Collison, Ed Davis and Trevor Ariza?
PG: Lonzo/
SG: Collison/Hart/
SF: Ingram/Ariza/
PF: LeBron/Kuzma/
C: Vucevic/Davis/
That's a hell of a 9 man rotation. The pieces fit a hell of a lot better than this year's cast of characters. So, what happens? Where is this organization come August and what the hell does it look like? This team needs to put their work in and decide if the correct people are in charge to maximize this off-season. Stephen A Smith has hinted at front office changes. If that doesn't happen, can Rob Pelinka and Magic Johnson do better with this do-over?
Tons of questions and Lakers got to have the right answers.
I've listened to a lot of different podcasts from around the NBA the last couple days: The Ringer NBA Pods, Zach Lowe, Brian Windhorst, etc and of course the Lakers' Summer Plans are one of the main talking points. And the more I think about it, the more concerned I become. You generally have an idea by this point in the season who's going to get who. And while there still are avenues where I could see the free agents signing with us, a lot of it relies on other dominoes to fall. Let's run through the "scenario planning," as Brian Windhorst did on his podcast.
------------------
The Big Fish:
Klay Thompson: I could absolutely see him signing here. Mychal Thompson has said it on radio that if Golden State didn't come correct or Klay couldn't be a Warrior, he'd obviously want to be a Laker. However, with so much uncertainty around Durant, Green & Cousins, you have to think a max contract extension will be on Klay's doorstep the second free agency opens. And I'm sure they've already had those wink wink discussions by this point. If that happens, there's no way Klay Thompson becomes a Laker.
Kyrie Irving: He's becoming the most likely Laker addition in my opinion, especially if the Lakers land Anthony Davis prior to free agency. However, it still doesn't remain likely. The Lakers can sell him on an immediate future of a big 3 of him, LeBron & Davis. They can also sell him on a future in 3-4 years of him at 30 years old & Anthony Davis at 29 years old to lead the future of the Lakers through the next decade. Chris Haynes (who's plugged in with LeBron) has talked about LeBron and how he's been wanting to "pass the torch and control of the team," to someone and has referenced Anthony Davis as someone he'd be willing to do that for. I also think he'd do the same with Kyrie, considering their past and what both have been through since they left each other. However, for this to happen, Anthony Davis would have to be traded here (will the Pelicans do business with LA even if Boston doesn't put Tatum on the table?), and Kyrie would have to pass down the ideas of teaming with Durant in New York and re-signing with the Celtics. Again, I think Irving is the most likely superstar that agrees to come, but I don't put the chances very high of that happening.
Kawhi Leonard: Everyone seems to think that it's a foregone conclusion he signs with the Clippers or re-signs with Toronto. However, Cris Carter is one of the only other "names" under his representation group and he still says the Lakers are very much in play. LeBron needs to go to him and express that same sentiment about passing control of the team to him and really put heavy recruiting into Kawhi. Ramona Shelburne has talked that she also still thinks Kawhi would come here but he would have to feel wanted for him to do so. Magic and LeBron need to earn their money with Kawhi. Even so, I still put the chances as not very likely with Kawhi.
Kevin Durant: Everyone has talked about New York and if he's leaving Golden State, you'd have to imagine he's going to the Knicks. But, can that be guaranteed with a guy like KD? If LeBron comes to him and puts on a heavy recruiting pitch and makes him feel wanted, I could see a guy like KD in an "impulse buy" type of way signing with the Lakers. Fat chance though that it doesn't happen.
------------------
What about the next tier of guys?
Kemba Walker: It was on the wiretap a few days ago that there's now a real possibility that Walker leaves. With the market the way it is and half the league having max cap space, he'll absolutely get a 4-year max. With Charlotte's cap sheet the way it is (Batum, Williams, Zeller, MKG, Biyombo all on the books next year for major money), you'd have to think there'd be some hesitation from Charlotte's perspective to offer the full max. Even if they did, what avenues do Mitch Kupchak and Michael Jordan have of getting better? As far as the Lakers are concerned, I could absolutely see Kemba being a guy to come here. But, if the Lakers wait on the big free agents for a day or two and then don't recruit him hard until those other dominoes fall, you'd have to imagine that would rub him the wrong way. If the Lakers act fast and make him a significant priority, if he leaves Charlotte, I think he's the most realistic option. Other concerns: He'll be 29 in May, was it really worth it to give up flexibility last off-season with Randle and giving up Russell to land Kemba Walker? Is that a big enough splash to justify what's gone on the last two years of hoarding "sacred" cap space?
Khris Middleton: He'd be a great fit next to LeBron and the young guys, but there's absolutely no way Milwaukee pays Bledsoe what they did and then low ball Middleton. Not happening.
Tobias Harris: He's not a max player in my opinion and I don't think Philadelphia gives up what they did to let him walk. He'll get the max from Philadelphia.
Jimmy Butler: I think Brooklyn will come after him hard from Day 1, but if the Lakers are willing to put a max offer out to him, you'd have to imagine he'd consider the Lakers big time. He's been rumoured to want to play with the Lakers ever since he was in Chicago and coming up on restricted free agency. However, do we want Jimmy Butler on a max deal for 4 years? That's crippling considering LeBron's age and Butler isn't good enough to lead the young core if LeBron slows down or deals with missed games.
The Rest: With half the league having cap space, who else has the capability to get a max? My guesses are..
D'Angelo Russell - The Lakers front office would never extend an offer sheet because of ego alone. No way they ever admit that mistake.
Julius Randle - Copy and paste with Russell. I don't think he'll get the max, but I can certainly see a team with $20-25M in cap space spending it on Randle. Imagine him with Porzingis and Luka? Goodness.
Nikola Vucevic - He'll get big time money. Maybe not a full max, but close to it. I could see a 4 year deal starting at $25M for him.
------------------
Anthony Davis:
This shouldn't be the first option but with no real indication at this point that any major free agents are coming, it will be. The Lakers have to land him by the draft in my opinion. And I say it shouldn't be the first option because the Lakers have passed up the flexibility on other guys (Randle, Russell, Nance) for the ability to land a free agent and keep the core young guys (Ingram, Ball, Kuzma, Hart). If you're trading for Anthony Davis, most of the young guys are going unless we somehow land the #1 pick and that's not likely at all.
If we land him, that's a big weight lifted off the franchise's shoulders. We'd still have significant space to fill out the roster with roleplayers or sign one of the big free agents. However, this totally relies on the Pelicans doing business with us and Boston not putting Jason Tatum on the table. Ingram was closing that gap significantly on Tatum, but him being out for the rest of the season puts a fork in that now. Tatum, right or wrong, is looked at as the prized possession by New Orleans or else they would have made the deal with us around the deadline.
------------------
Prediction Time:
So, what happens? If Boston gambles or gets an assurance from Kyrie that he's staying if they land Davis, and that happens, where does that leave the Lakers? That takes off 2 of the potential targets (Irving, Davis) with no clear lane to any of the other major guys. Do we prepare an offer for Kemba Walker and make him the big signing or do we round out the roster with players on solid deals?
OR:
The Elephant In The Room: What if Davis gets traded to Boston and Klutch still tells the Lakers that Davis isn't staying past the one year in Boston? I could absolutely see the Lakers making a stupid decision to offer a one year massive deal to DeMarcus Cousins and try to sign players with better shooting ability on 1-year deals. That scenario basically puts us in the exact same position next year that we were in this year, with a broken culture, and LeBron another year older. Scary thought. And based on the last two years of evidence, you have to imagine this is the road the Lakers' inexperienced front office takes. I truly don't think they understand or grasp the concept that they can sign players on team-friendly deals and then make the corresponding moves to trade them if you get the agreements from the big time players you're interested in.
My predictions are as follows:
- Klay Thompson re-signs on a max contract.
- Durant signs in New York, Jimmy Butler joins him.
- Kyrie eventually remains with the Celtics, possibly on a one year deal.
- Boston decides to gamble and trades Anthony Davis to Boston.
- Kawhi signs with the Clippers.
- Harris re-signs with Philadelphia.
- Middleton re-signs with Milwaukee.
So if the Lakers get none of the big fish, what route do they go? How do you predict this summer playing out? While it's a little early for us to be discussing this, the Lakers front office needs to be doing this at the moment. Do they have the front office experience to know? Do they have the knowledge to formulate the plans now and not just watch playoff games and build their team "to beat Golden State," when they only play the Warriors 4 out of 82 games?
Personally, I'd prioritize depth moves with players on team-friendly deals. There's a ton of them out there. My favorites:
- Darren Collison: Could start in the back court with Lonzo and fit as a solid defender and good shooter. Could be had for $10-12M on a 2-3 year deal, with maybe a partial guarantee on the 3rd season. He's shot over 40% from 3PT over the last 4 seasons.
- Danny Green: Same type of deal as Collison, I would assume. Strong wing defender and has shot the lights out this season for Toronto. I've wanted him on the Lakers forever.
- Bojan Bogdanovic: 2-3 year deal, I would assume around $12-15M a season. He'll be in his Age 30 season next year, which should scare teams off from offering massive deals. If he slips through the cracks, he's someone we should seriously consider.
- Nikola Vucevic: If he somehow doesn't get close to max offers and he's available for anything in the $12-20M range, the Lakers should jump on it and not think twice.
- Trevor Ariza: You'd have to assume Phoenix was his last big pay day. Bring him home on a 2 year deal starting around the room exception, $5-7M a season.
- Terrence Ross: Someone we should have went after early in the season, I would imagine he'll get something like $10-12M a season on a 2-3 year deal.
- Nikola Mirotic: Have to imagine the Jazz re-sign him, but if he's available on a good deal, the Lakers should pursue him.
- J.J. Reddick: Late in his career, still does the same thing everywhere he goes: Makes 3's. The Lakers haven't really had a guy that come off screens and knock down shots. He's also a guy that draws so much attention, when he's moving around screens like crazy, it creates fantastic opportunities on the weak side for open lay-ups, open dunks, open shots. Imagine Reddick running around screens with LeBron handling the ball and Kuzma/Ingram cutting to the basket? Probably a 1-2 year deal worth $10-12M a season.
- Patrick Beverley: This team needs a defender in the back court and his 3PT shooting ability has improved significantly. You hate him when he's not on your team, but if we could weaken the Clippers and bring him on, he'd be such a huge pick-up. Someone who instantly changes the culture of the team and gave us an insurance policy on Lonzo Ball. 2-3 year deal around $8-10M a season would be his market, I would imagine.
- Mike Scott: He's been massive with Philadelphia. A 2-3 year deal around $6-8M a season would be a great contract for him. He can play some small ball 5 and I like his toughness. Shooting 43% with the 76ers on 4.8 attempts per game. They played him at the small ball 5 against DaMarcus Cousins and the Warriors and caused huge problems for them.
- Ed Davis: Why the Lakers let him go to begin with a couple years ago, I have no idea. He's productive every place he goes. Such a good defender, very good in the locker room, etc.
- Wayne Ellington: I'm sure it wouldn't take much to get him. 1-2 year deal worth $5M a season? Which is basically the room exception.
- Brook Lopez: Would the front office admit another mistake? 2-3 year deal worth $6-10M a season would be a great get for the Lakers.
- Other Room Exception/Minimum candidates: Cory Joseph, Troy Daniels, Ian Clark, Austin Rivers, Wes Matthews, Seth Curry, Ish Smith, Reggie Bullock, DeMarre Carroll, Anthony Tolliver, Thabo Sefolosha, DeAndre Jordan, Robin Lopez, Amir Johnson, Pau Gasol, Boban.
------------------
Imagine if this team came away with Vucevic, Darren Collison, Ed Davis and Trevor Ariza?
PG: Lonzo/
SG: Collison/Hart/
SF: Ingram/Ariza/
PF: LeBron/Kuzma/
C: Vucevic/Davis/
That's a hell of a 9 man rotation. The pieces fit a hell of a lot better than this year's cast of characters. So, what happens? Where is this organization come August and what the hell does it look like? This team needs to put their work in and decide if the correct people are in charge to maximize this off-season. Stephen A Smith has hinted at front office changes. If that doesn't happen, can Rob Pelinka and Magic Johnson do better with this do-over?
Tons of questions and Lakers got to have the right answers.