Lakers are 14-4 when taking/making league average amount of three pointers

[homecourtloss]

Posted this Monday when Lakers were 13-4 when taking a league average amount of threes in a game and making a league average amount.

Posters here who don’t get paid millions understand the overwhelming impact of three point shooting while the Lakers’ brass tried to do something else and are now think of hiring Jason Kidd. They’ve only made and taken a league average amount of threes in 17 games this season despite being 17th in the league in wide open threes attempted per game and 13th in the leage in open threes attempted per game. Just awful, awful roster construction.

The entire idea that you could somehow overcome simple math and play some new kind of anti-three ball based on “multiple ball-handlers” was incredibly flawed from the beginning. Now, when the Lakers were 20-14 and leading the league in amount of baskets taken at the rim, you could say it was somewhat working, but those “multiple ball handlers” are also terrible defenders (Rondo, Stephenson) so you knew the bottom would fall out sooner or later.

League average 3p%: 35.5% (Lakers, 32.9%,virtually tied for last in the NBA)
League average 3p makes per game: 11.3 (Lakers at 10.1 made per game, but play the 4th fastest pace in the NBA; per 100 possessions, they only make 9.8 threes per game)

—Per 100 possessions, Lakers make 9.8 threes per game and their opponents make 11.4, a NET differential of -1.6 threes made per 100 possession per game.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2019.html

—League average three point%: 35.5%
—Lakers on WIDE OPEN THREES: 34.2%
—Lakers on OPEN THREES: 32.9%

—The Lakers have only hit a league average amount of threes (11+) on league average shooting (36%) 17 times this season and wouldn’t you know it, they are 13-4 in those games.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tgl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=game&lg_id=NBA&is_playoffs=N&team_seed_cmp=eq&opp_seed_cmp=eq&year_min=2019&year_max=2019&is_range=N&game_num_type=team&team_id=LAL&c1stat=fg3&c1comp=gt&c1val=11&c2stat=fg3_pct&c2comp=gt&c2val=36&order_by=wins

Now, obviously we could argue that if you construct the team differently, they’d lose the “strengths” that help them currently play well other than hitting threes and those strengths + making threes makes them difficult to defeat. It’d be hard to tease all that out, but here’s something:

—Lakers are dead last BY FAR in wide open three% at 34.2%. League average shooting from three is HIGHER than the Lakers’ WIDE OPEN three point %. The Lakers generate the 17th most wide open threes per game, but hit the worst % by a whopping 1.5% WORSE than 29th place New Orleans.

https://stats.nba.com/teams/shots-closest-defender-10/?Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&CloseDefDistRange=6%2B%20Feet%20-%20Wide%20Open&sort=FG3_PCT&dir=1

The Lakers generate the 13th most open threes per game, but are 25th in the league at hitting them at a pathetic 32.2%.

https://stats.nba.com/teams/shots-closest-defender-10/?Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&CloseDefDistRange=4-6%20Feet%20-%20Open&sort=FG3_PCT&dir=1

[Pythagoras]

Just add another log on the fire to the notion that Magic had zero clue what he was doing when he assembled this roster. Rondo wants to come back. McGee wants to come back. Those dudes shouldn't be anywhere near this team next season.

[Landsberger]

Interesting.... In looking at the records of the teams we beat I'd say this isn't the strongest indicator that we would have jumped significantly in the standings by shooting more 3's. I don't disagree that we need more shooters but the GS philosophy of shooting has only worked for them. They have a unique group. Not sure emulating that will bring the same results.

We need a roster make over for sure but we also need to build a cohesive team that has balance. That, more than anything, has been our biggest issue. Multiple ball handlers until Ingram and Bron are in the game.... then it's no one but them. That has lost us several games this year.

[homecourtloss]

They’re 12-2 in games in which LeBron plays and they take a league average amount of threes and make a league average %.

Anecdotally, I’m sure people see it, too. When these guys hit wide open shots that have been available (see OP—Lakers are bottom two in three point makes but are average to slightly above average in generating open and wide open threes), the game stays manageable instead of sprinkling out of control.

As for “whom have they beaten,” it’s been some pretty good teams and some not so good teams, but the real story is that they’ve only been able to take and make a league AVERAGE amount of threes in 18 games this season.

[Landsberger]

They’re 12-2 in games in which LeBron plays and they take a league average amount of threes and make a league average %.

Anecdotally, I’m sure people see it, too. When these guys hit wide open shots that have been available (see OP—Lakers are bottom two in three point makes but are average to slightly above average in generating open and wide open threes), the game stays manageable instead of sprinkling out of control.

As for “whom have they beaten,” it’s been some pretty good teams and some not so good teams, but the real story is that they’ve only been able to take and make a league AVERAGE amount of threes in 18 games this season.

I wouldn't diminish who they beat in this analysis. Some of those score differences were large.... too large to be the result of 3 point attempts alone. Not discounting the theory but looking at it in perspective.

We need a balanced team and having Ingram at the 2 slot, which is more typically a floor spreading shooter, who plays in the paint most of the time has limited our ability to create space and make 3 point shots.

I'd say we left a good 6-8 wins on the floor with our free throw shooting this year as well.

[TylersLakers]

Just add another log on the fire to the notion that Magic had zero clue what he was doing when he assembled this roster. Rondo wants to come back. McGee wants to come back. Those dudes shouldn't be anywhere near this team next season.

I would take McGee back as a back-up. However, we need more spacing and with Ingram & Ball in the line-up, it will have to come from the C position.

That's why I'm banging the drum so hard on Vucevic.

[Landsberger]

Just add another log on the fire to the notion that Magic had zero clue what he was doing when he assembled this roster. Rondo wants to come back. McGee wants to come back. Those dudes shouldn't be anywhere near this team next season.

I would take McGee back as a back-up. However, we need more spacing and with Ingram & Ball in the line-up, it will have to come from the C position.

That's why I'm banging the drum so hard on Vucevic.

I like him as well. Can score without having to have plays set up for him, rebounds, passes well and can space the floor. If Luke survives and we have another star here I cringe at the game closing sequences. We will need another guy like Kuzma who doesn't need to be focused on to get points.

[tamaraw08]

It's not like the core shot poorly 2 years ago.
3pt % of Lakers players for 2 seasons ago.
Josh Hart- 40%
KCP- 38%
Ingram 40%
Kuzma 36.6%. They also drafted a senior who shot 40% from the college ranks., who would have thought ALL of them would REALLY STRUGGLE this year.
Also, most shooters are below average defenders like Kyle Korver so they probably thought if they go that route, they will simply lose anyway bec of bad defense.
I am guessing they watched intently how Houston were one good 2nd half away from upsetting the mighty Warriors, managing to beat them 3 times while only shooting 31.4% from the 3pt area. Harden actually shot 24% from that area.
Lakers were on tract of being a good defensive team, being 6th best in DRTG the first 2 months of the season until injuries and trade rumors happened.
Lebron's past teams have been ALWAYS IN top 5 in ORTG(even when they traded Kyrie)when his team are tops in 3pt shooting albeit they were in the weak East=weak competetion.
Moving forward, I really think they should go after players who can defend and shoot the 3's for more than 1 year. Guys like Beverley, Collison, Wesley Matthews ALL have CAREER 3pt % of ABOVE 38%!

[tamaraw08]

Just add another log on the fire to the notion that Magic had zero clue what he was doing when he assembled this roster. Rondo wants to come back. McGee wants to come back. Those dudes shouldn't be anywhere near this team next season.

I would take McGee back as a back-up. However, we need more spacing and with Ingram & Ball in the line-up, it will have to come from the C position.

That's why I'm banging the drum so hard on Vucevic.

You have a point but you have to pay the max salary to lure Vucevic here, losing any hope and actually getting a proven superstar, do you really want to do that?
Other cheap alternatives.
Ryan Anderson(more like a PF at 6'10) is only 30 years old believe it or not. He has a CAREER AVERAGE OF 38% in 645 games. Yes, he has struggled fitting in Phoenix(just 15 games)Shot nearly 40% at Houston. His lowest % was at NOP at a meager 37%.
Muscala was actually decent before this year too esp at Atlanta but he didn't really shoot enough to earn a reputation of being a true shooter.

[myersia]

I would take McGee rondo and Stevenson and Caruso all back for the bench. These guys need to return


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[Pythagoras]

I would take McGee rondo and Stevenson and Caruso all back for the bench. These guys need to return


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

Rondo might literally be the worst player in the league, and that’s not even hyperbolic. Any dollar over zero you pay him is too much, and any minutes you play him over zero are too much.

[Landsberger]

So I suggested we lost several games because of FT shooting issues earlier in the thread. A little research shows we lost the 42 losses to date by an average of 12 points. In those losses we shot 68% from the line. We missed an average of 8 FT's a game. In the 19 games where we lost by less than 9 points we shot 67% from the line and missed an average of 9 FT's.

If we shot say..... 78% from the line we could have turned 2/3 of those losses into wins. That's 11 more wins with better FT shooting.

In those losses Ingram and Bron missed the majority of the FT's.

So, yes a couple more 3 pointers in those games helps but then again..... those are low percentage shots even for good teams. FT's are freaking "Free" attempts to score and we suck at those. It's fashionable to view 3 point shooting as a differentiator but for a team that scores a lot in the paint to miss FT's like we do it's the true differentiator it seems.

While I was at it over at BB Reference I looked at how our top 3 scorers did in our wins.

Kuzma scored at least 20 in 29 games. He shot 36.2% from 3 (2.8 made a game) in those games, scored an average of 25.9 while shooting 53.4% overall. The team was 14-15 in those games. He shot 77% on 4.2 FT attempts.

Ingram scored at least 20 in 20 games. He shot 45% from 3 in those games (1.2 made a game), scored an average of 24.5 while shooting 56% overall. The team was 7-13 in those games. He shot 71% on FT 6.45 attempts.

Bron scored over 20 in 48 games. He shot 35% from 3 (2.2 made a game) in those games, scored an average of 29.0 while shooting 52% overall. The team was 22-26 in those games. He shot 67% on 8 FT attempts.

All 3 scored very efficiently. Kuzma had the best win %. Ingram's record was the worst of the bunch by a good margin. He shot 3's very well but it was a small sample size. Bron scoring 20 is a must for us as you can see. Ingram shot FT's better than the balance of the season with Kuzma and Bron shooting about the same.

A theory to Ingram's low win total after looking at the games we won when he scored at least 20..... The majority were low scoring games where we faded late. Somewhat the opposite was the case for Kuzma's 20+ point games. We scored above our season average by a fair margin and we won a number of those games by a good margin.

No hard conclusions but I'd say if we can get these 3 going at the same time we will be OK. Key will be to get away from the slow down we have been doing late in games and for that we will need a new coach IMHO.

[tamaraw08]

So I suggested we lost several games because of FT shooting issues earlier in the thread. A little research shows we lost the 42 losses to date by an average of 12 points. In those losses we shot 68% from the line. We missed an average of 8 FT's a game. In the 19 games where we lost by less than 9 points we shot 67% from the line and missed an average of 9 FT's.

If we shot say..... 78% from the line we could have turned 2/3 of those losses into wins. That's 11 more wins with better FT shooting.

In those losses Ingram and Bron missed the majority of the FT's.

So, yes a couple more 3 pointers in those games helps but then again..... those are low percentage shots even for good teams. FT's are freaking "Free" attempts to score and we suck at those. It's fashionable to view 3 point shooting as a differentiator but for a team that scores a lot in the paint to miss FT's like we do it's the true differentiator it seems.

While I was at it over at BB Reference I looked at how our top 3 scorers did in our wins.

Kuzma scored at least 20 in 29 games. He shot 36.2% from 3 (2.8 made a game) in those games, scored an average of 25.9 while shooting 53.4% overall. The team was 14-15 in those games. He shot 77% on 4.2 FT attempts.

Ingram scored at least 20 in 20 games. He shot 45% from 3 in those games (1.2 made a game), scored an average of 24.5 while shooting 56% overall. The team was 7-13 in those games. He shot 71% on FT 6.45 attempts.

Bron scored over 20 in 48 games. He shot 35% from 3 (2.2 made a game) in those games, scored an average of 29.0 while shooting 52% overall. The team was 22-26 in those games. He shot 67% on 8 FT attempts.

All 3 scored very efficiently. Kuzma had the best win %. Ingram's record was the worst of the bunch by a good margin. He shot 3's very well but it was a small sample size. Bron scoring 20 is a must for us as you can see. Ingram shot FT's better than the balance of the season with Kuzma and Bron shooting about the same.

A theory to Ingram's low win total after looking at the games we won when he scored at least 20..... The majority were low scoring games where we faded late. Somewhat the opposite was the case for Kuzma's 20+ point games. We scored above our season average by a fair margin and we won a number of those games by a good margin.

[b]No hard conclusions but I'd say if we can get these 3 going at the same time we will be OK.[/b] Key will be to get away from the slow down we have been doing late in games and for that we will need a new coach IMHO.

For me, because Kuzma takes so many 3's, he is the the most inconsistent of the 3.[url][https://stats.nba.com/player/1628398/traditional//url]
37 losses, Kuzma shot 23.7%, in 33 wins, he shot 37.2%.
For the FTs, Lebron struggled big time from shooting 73% last year to just 66.5% this season. The irony is that Kuzma, Javale and Rondo and shot better than their career ave.
Luke have repeatedly said they have tried EVERYTHING from emphasizing the value of making FTs to not talking about it (relieve pressure), including using phychologists etc. He said, they spent countless hours practicing them etc.
My complaint was when I went to the game vs the Bulls, I didn't see anybody practice their FT shots.
For the first 2 months, Lakers were in the top 6 in DRTG, masking their deficiencies in shooting.
Moving forward, I think Magic should go after players who defend hard and at the same time hit open 3's guys like Beverley, Collison, Wesley Matthews etc.

[tamaraw08]

So I suggested we lost several games because of FT shooting issues earlier in the thread. A little research shows we lost the 42 losses to date by an average of 12 points. In those losses we shot 68% from the line. We missed an average of 8 FT's a game. In the 19 games where we lost by less than 9 points we shot 67% from the line and missed an average of 9 FT's.

If we shot say..... 78% from the line we could have turned 2/3 of those losses into wins. That's 11 more wins with better FT shooting.

In those losses Ingram and Bron missed the majority of the FT's.

So, yes a couple more 3 pointers in those games helps but then again..... those are low percentage shots even for good teams. FT's are freaking "Free" attempts to score and we suck at those. It's fashionable to view 3 point shooting as a differentiator but for a team that scores a lot in the paint to miss FT's like we do it's the true differentiator it seems.

While I was at it over at BB Reference I looked at how our top 3 scorers did in our wins.

Kuzma scored at least 20 in 29 games. He shot 36.2% from 3 (2.8 made a game) in those games, scored an average of 25.9 while shooting 53.4% overall. The team was 14-15 in those games. He shot 77% on 4.2 FT attempts.

Ingram scored at least 20 in 20 games. He shot 45% from 3 in those games (1.2 made a game), scored an average of 24.5 while shooting 56% overall. The team was 7-13 in those games. He shot 71% on FT 6.45 attempts.

Bron scored over 20 in 48 games. He shot 35% from 3 (2.2 made a game) in those games, scored an average of 29.0 while shooting 52% overall. The team was 22-26 in those games. He shot 67% on 8 FT attempts.

All 3 scored very efficiently. Kuzma had the best win %. Ingram's record was the worst of the bunch by a good margin. He shot 3's very well but it was a small sample size. Bron scoring 20 is a must for us as you can see. Ingram shot FT's better than the balance of the season with Kuzma and Bron shooting about the same.

A theory to Ingram's low win total after looking at the games we won when he scored at least 20..... The majority were low scoring games where we faded late. Somewhat the opposite was the case for Kuzma's 20+ point games. We scored above our season average by a fair margin and we won a number of those games by a good margin.

[b]No hard conclusions but I'd say if we can get these 3 going at the same time we will be OK.[/b] Key will be to get away from the slow down we have been doing late in games and for that we will need a new coach IMHO.

For me, because Kuzma takes so many 3's, he is the the most inconsistent of the 3.[url][https://stats.nba.com/player/1628398/traditional//url]
37 losses, Kuzma shot 23.7%, in 33 wins, he shot 37.2%.
For the FTs, Lebron struggled big time from shooting 73% last year to just 66.5% this season. The irony is that Kuzma, Javale and Rondo and shot better than their career ave.
Luke have repeatedly said they have tried EVERYTHING from emphasizing the value of making FTs to not talking about it (relieve pressure), including using phychologists etc. He said, they spent countless hours practicing them etc.
My complaint was when I went to the game vs the Bulls, I didn't see anybody practice their FT shots.
For the first 2 months, Lakers were in the top 6 in DRTG, masking their deficiencies in shooting.
Moving forward, I think Magic should go after players who defend hard and at the same time hit open 3's guys like Beverley, Collison, Wesley Matthews etc.

Also, KCP shot under 30% in 43 losses, 31.7% for the most trying months of Jan and February,https://stats.nba.com/player/203484/traditional/
Hart was basically the same shooting 30.5% in 36 losses.

[Landsberger]

For me, because Kuzma takes so many 3's, he is the the most inconsistent of the 3.
37 losses, Kuzma shot 23.7%, in 33 wins, he shot 37.2%.

Not many guys shooting 6 3's a game are hitting 38% of them every night. Even guys like Curry have wide swings. The further you are away from the basket the more variability you will have within that average.

That said, Kuzma has been less consistent this year than last shooting from distance. Last year he was over 40% for 1/3 of the season then dropped off when he began to get dinged up. He ended around 36% or so if memory serves. This year he had a very good stretch mid year but has been spotty before and since. Again, he's had a few lower body issues (hip and ankle) that effect the base when he shoots. My guess is that over time he'll be a 34% to 36% 3 point shooter. For a guy shooting 6 a game the difference between 35% and 40% is one more made 3 in 4 games..... so it's not a huge difference in terms of points per game.

FT's are a key to winning in the playoffs. Having a closing 5 that includes Ball, Bron and Ingram is a huge problem. Much more so than not having 3 point shooters IMHO. Teams will key on that late. If we're going to be scoring a lot of points in the paint (with Bron and Ingram that will be the case) we will need to be hitting FT's at a 75% clip to be a truly competitive playoff team.

[Spens1]

Just add another log on the fire to the notion that Magic had zero clue what he was doing when he assembled this roster. Rondo wants to come back. McGee wants to come back. Those dudes shouldn't be anywhere near this team next season.

To be fair, i'd probably take Rondo back, attitude aside he wasn't really the issue.

[mademan]

NBA says: Shooters and defenders
Lebron history says: Shooters and defenders

Magic says: hold my beer

[NBAWestFan]

This is a good point

3's win games if you have the right shooters.

3 point shooters space the floor.

titles have been won recently by 3 point shooting teams.
Boston won with Ray Allen and so did Miami

3 times 20 = 60 points

a team would have to make 30 two points or get 10 more shots than another team.

There is a correlation between more rebounds and winning and it relates to
the more 3 points shots made also.

Great rebounding & Defense with 3 point shooting teams, A good rebounding team will have a Big who can also get easy scores.

[Landsberger]

This is a good point

3's win games if you have the right shooters.

3 point shooters space the floor.

titles have been won recently by 3 point shooting teams.
Boston won with Ray Allen and so did Miami

3 times 20 = 60 points

a team would have to make 30 two points or get 10 more shots than another team.

There is a correlation between more rebounds and winning and it relates to
the more 3 points shots made also.

Great rebounding & Defense with 3 point shooting teams, A good rebounding team will have a Big who can also get easy scores.

I don't dispute that you need spacing and guys who can hit 3's but when you BASE your offense on 3's it becomes inconsistent at best. Another old adage in the game is "live by the jumper, die by the jumper".

I would add that shooting below 70% as a team on FT's pretty much insures that having good 3 point shooter won't matter because you won't get far enough for it to.

[Crives]

And suns are 2-0 when playing the Bucks!