Championship Team Needs

[milesfides]

THREE-POINT SHOOTING

Specifically, any championship contender needs elite catch-and-shoot three point shooters. The Warriors and Raptors each have at least five guys shooting better than 40% and another four or five approaching that. Other contenders are close as well, because it's a sign of an efficient offense.

Anthony Davis is close at 38%, but his ability to play center becomes a force multiplier. In these past Finals, Marc Gasol's shot 37% on catch and shoot threes at 3.5 attempts, a key factor in the Raptors' win over the Warriors; big men Cousins, Looney, and Green were ineffective at spacing the floor and the Warriors offense struggled even with Steph Curry and Klay Thompson.

That's the good news.

Lebron shoots 36%, but his real problem is pull-ups threes. He hits only 33% at nearly four attempts a game. The obvious recommendation is for him to stop imitating Steph Curry, which would likely happen once the Lakers have a more effective offense.

Then why were the Lakers dead last in the league shooting 33.6% on catch-and-shoot threes?

The young guys. Kyle Kuzma, Ingram, and Lonzo all bricked below 32%, but Kuzma was the worst offender because he shot them at a game-throwing rate of five attempts per contest, a severe handicap. And he's the only one still on our team.

1) Kuzma has to shoot better. Luckily, he was good during his rookie year - he shot 37.5%. Blame Luke, the changing roles and lineups, but he needs to shoot closer to 40% to be at the aforementioned championship contender level. If not...well we should move him. He's a 20-point scorer on many teams, but not a championship team.

2) But Alex Caruso hit 50% catch-and-shoot threes last year. Good for... No. 1 in NBA. Of course it is a limited sample size, but 25 games is hardly a fluke. Even if he comes down to earth over a full season, hitting 40% or above seems to be a reasonable expectation. We need to give him a major opportunity - that should be a priority on a cap-strapped team.

3) Target top catch-and-shoot guards in free agency . We have nobody else in the backcourt, literally, so we need to make sure we choose wisely.

Note: Frequency and shot difficulty are factors, but to avoid the complexity of a composite metric, I've omitted them for now.

-Quinn Cook (47%), Danny Green (46%), Seth Curry (45%), Dwayne Bacon (45%)
-JJ Reddick/Ryan Arcidiacono (42%), Patrick Beverley (41%), TJ McConnell, Tomas Satoransk/Ryan Broekhoff/Wesley Matthews (40%)
-Terrence Ross (39%)

Now, the frontcourt is a much lesser priority because AD, Lebron, and presumably Kuzma will eat most of the minutes there. But depth is key for championships.

-Wilson Chandler (43%), JaMychal Green (42%)
-Bobby Portis/Marcus Morris/ (39%), Willy Hernangomez/Dewayne Dedmond (38%)


Of course, you need to also consider the salary, contract length, player age, among other factors.



Next topic, defense.

[Slava]

Quite honestly if you get Kawhi, you move heaven and earth to get it done. Otherwise there's no other free agent out there that is more valuable than useful depth like Lopez, Curry, Green, Beverley etc.

[milesfides]

Agreed. I'm arguing it would be a bad strategy to settle for Kemba Walker (35% on catch and shoot)

[Ball so hard]

I agree we need a few specialists.

Caruso is not starter quality material. I'd be ok with him as a backup. The stats you posted for Caruso is a bit misleading. Caruso attempted 50 3P all season;last year he attempted 43 3P. He's a very reluctant shooter. He would probably need to, at a minimum triple his attempts while keeping maintaining good efficiency.

[Spanish_Laker]

I really liked your post.

We can all agree on this, but the problem is money. I hope Pelinka can perform a miracle by filling out this roster with cheap reliable sharpshooters.

[TylersLakers]

Agreed. I'm arguing it would be a bad strategy to settle for Kemba Walker (35% on catch and shoot)

I love Kemba and I wanted him if we kept the young core as I think he would have fit excellent next to Lonzo, but with the Davis trade, this team needs depth if it's not Kawhi Leonard.

I love your suggestions. Darren Collison is a guy I'm super high on.

[snaquille oatmeal]

Miles I miss T-rex

[mighty_duck]

Assuming no Kawhi, KD, Kyrie, or Klay.
What about a Middleton or Tobias Harris? Sweet shooting, good defenders (next topic), of an age with AD. They somewhat replicate what we have in Kuzma, but better.
That leaves a 9M room exception to fill out two backcourt positions, and minimum contracts to fill out the bench.
Two of Seth Curry, Quinn Cook, Pat Beverly. That will have us set with 4-5 good 3 point shooters (including Caruso and Kuzma).

[tv24lakers]

THREE-POINT SHOOTING

Specifically, any championship contender needs elite catch-and-shoot three point shooters. The Warriors and Raptors each have at least five guys shooting better than 40% and another four or five approaching that. Other contenders are close as well, because it's a sign of an efficient offense.

Not to burst your bubble, but last seasons Raptors team had a roster full of good perimeter shooters.

I do however agree that having a team full of capable and reliable perimeter shooters should be a priority.

On that note a few other names for consideration this offseason: Maxi Kleber, Ryan Broekhoff, Tomas Satoransky and Jeremy Lamb.

[supaflash]

The one thing about Kemba or Kyrie (or Bulter for that matter) that people are overlooking is load management.

Yes having good depth is needed, but you also need guys that can create and handle. If you surround Bron and AD with pure role players that means they will have a heavy workload for the season. Kemba and Kyrie gives you an on ball guy that can get his own shot and create for others regardless if Bron or AD is on the floor.

So yeah I think you go after Kawhi no matter what, but 'settling' on Kemba/Kyrie/Butler isn't a bad thing.

That said I still think Brogdon can be that guy and a great complimentary guy when they are out, and be cheaper so...

To me its:
1. Kawhi - fill out with what we can after

2. Brogdon at 22-24mil if we could steal him for that and then another 10 mil quality guy like Beverly. That is a great backcourt for this lineup, or a shooter like Reddick.

3. Kemba

4. Butler

5. Kyrie - I'm not the biggest fan but I think he will help for sure.


From there I think you try to get a guy like Lopez or Deadmon on the MLE and fill out with re-signs and vet mins etc. There should be some decent talent and/or vets willing to come at that point.

[myersia]

I want collison


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

[mighty_duck]

Not to burst your bubble, but last seasons Raptors team had a roster full of good perimeter shooters.

1. Having three point shooters is a (pretty much)necessary, but not sufficient condition to win a championship in today's NBA. IOW, you need shooters to win, but just because you have shooters, it doesn't mean you are guaranteed to win.

2. Last season's Raptors won the most games in the regular season, without a single top 20 player. We'll have 2 top-10 players. Surround them with good shooters and defenders (plus another ball handler/creator/P&R operator), and you'll have a good chance to win it all.

[tv24lakers]

Not to burst your bubble, but last seasons Raptors team had a roster full of good perimeter shooters.

1. Having three point shooters is a (pretty much)necessary, but not sufficient condition to win a championship in today's NBA. IOW, you need shooters to win, but just because you have shooters, it doesn't mean you are guaranteed to win.

2. Last season's Raptors won the most games in the regular season, without a single top 20 player. We'll have 2 top-10 players. Surround them with good shooters and defenders (plus another ball handler/creator/P&R operator), and you'll have a good chance to win it all.

Agreed. We need to surround LBJ and AD with a good support system, players that are capable of hiring perimeter shoots and can defend when called upon. Easier said than done.
Obviously players that excel in a variety of facets are not easy to come by nor inexpensive, so we will need to be very thoughtful in terms of the construction of the remaining assets and lineup combinations.

[milesfides]

The key is defining what’s a good three-point shooter. Specifically, it’s a catch-and-shoot three point shooter, and that number is 40% and up. You need around 4-5 players at that rate and a few others approaching it. Like the Warriors and Raptors, around seven to eight catch-and-shoot three-point shooters who are excellent to elite. In the playoffs, that will tighten to around 4-5 (Raptors, Warriors, Blazers), which will help you beat a team that tightens to 2-3 (Bucks, Rockets, Nuggets, Celtics, Philly, Thunder).

This is important for several reasons:

1) depth - consistent play with different rotations and lineups

2) injuries - helps prevent and weather injuries, manage player minutes (see the Raptors maintain high level of play w/o Kawhi - big part of it was their star-less potent offense)

3) the distribution is also important - you need to have bigs, wings, and guards who can hit that percentage - KD as a smallball big was huge because GSW had 4 elite catch and shoot three point threats with Draymond as the point. When he went down, too much pressure on Steph and Klay. Likewise, Marc Gasol's ability to spread the floor was key for Toronto.

Lebron is going to play Draymond’s role as point forward, and the Lakers need to make sure they have four play finishers (read: 40% catch-and-shoot three point shooters) on the floor at all times. That requires depth and distribution.

[milesfides]

And this has bearing on decisions. For example, Kuzma can't get away with 32% on 5 attempts. That's trash. He's a very good young player but he has no place on a championship team with Lebron and AD if he misfires at that rate. It might be a good idea to pick up a player like Marcus Morris or JaMychal Green, who hit 39% reg season, 55% in playoffs. Or pick up Wilson Chandler for the vet minimum (40% catch and shoot threes).

But Rob Pelinka really can't make a mistake when filling the backcourt.

If he throws the rest of our capspace at Kemba Walker, that would be a really bad decision. And how much is too much for a 31 year old "Who's Gonna Pay Me" Pat Beverley?

Or would it be better to hedge our bets with some combination of Seth Curry, McConnell, Bacon, Broekhoff, Satoransky, Arcidiacono?

Obviously landing Kawhi would make decisions much easier (he himself is a 41% catch-and-shooter), but Rob Pelinka shouldn't necessarily SPEND the remaining cap space on the NEXT BEST max player.

Filling the remaining 8 roster spots with three wings and three guards who can hit 40%+ catch and shoot threes, and a couple backup defensive bigs, would be smart.