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The Cousins injury thread

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Re: The Cousins injury thread 

Post#161 » by zimpy27 » Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:09 am

Ball so hard wrote:
zimpy27 wrote:
Ball so hard wrote:Data on Bradley paints a far different picture than that of KCP. I didn't watch Bradley a ton last season so I was quite surprised by my finding. By and large Bradley was almost terrible across the board. He was only a plus defender against SFs. The data suggests he may simply be too slow to keep up with PGs and SGs... again, I didn't really watch him last year.

Ranking based on minimum of 5 possessions:

SG - 806 possessions - Offsensive players pts diff of net +32
PG - 389 possessions - Offsensive players pts diff of net +126
SF - 289 possessions - Offsensive players pts diff of net - 4
PF - 55 possessions - Offsensive players pts diff of net +55

A few SFs he had a plus rating while defending:
Taurean Prince
Lebron
Paul George
Wes Iwundu
Covington
Omri Casspi
Harkless
Porter Jr.

Conclusion:
We're in big trouble if Bradley is our starting PG next year. He was atrocious while defending PGs. I expect KCP will start next to Lebron and Bradley will come off the bench.



Keep the analysis coming.
KCP seems a PG/SG defender and Bradley seems to be an SG/SF defender.

Both players gamble and hassle, they need a good defensive Frontcourt to be effective. They need people to clean up the gambles they lose. Here you have him being lauded as the best perimeter defender only 2 years ago.
https://www.flohoops.com/articles/5050579-is-avery-bradley-the-best-perimeter-defender-in-the-league

Maybe it's worth doing a 2-year analysis.

In any case, I actually thought the best starting lineup would be KCP, Green, LeBron, AD, Howard and the best backup lineup would be Caruso, Bradley, Thabo, Kuzma, McGee. The reason I thought that was the starters have LeBron and AD as playmakers while the bench has Caruso and Bradley. It's a much more balanced lineup. KCP/Green is also the better 3-shooting combo to surround LeBron with. I like that your analysis might gel with that.


Will post once I clean things a bit and remove what I think are outliers. 2017 data currently shows he was a + defender against just about every position including PGs. Perhaps the 2018 season was an off year. I'll need to drill down a bit deeper in the data.


Both Bradley and KCP seemed to drop in effectiveness when they were on teams with a poor defensive C. I've stated it a few times but I think the combo of AD/Howard is going to boost the defensive impact of KCP and Bradley. Their defensive style is in the face of the perimeter player which makes them vulnerable to blow-bys. That doesn't hurt as much with a defensive PF/C.
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Re: The Cousins injury thread 

Post#162 » by stan francisco » Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:32 pm

zimpy27 wrote:
Ball so hard wrote:
zimpy27 wrote:

Keep the analysis coming.
KCP seems a PG/SG defender and Bradley seems to be an SG/SF defender.

Both players gamble and hassle, they need a good defensive Frontcourt to be effective. They need people to clean up the gambles they lose. Here you have him being lauded as the best perimeter defender only 2 years ago.
https://www.flohoops.com/articles/5050579-is-avery-bradley-the-best-perimeter-defender-in-the-league

Maybe it's worth doing a 2-year analysis.

In any case, I actually thought the best starting lineup would be KCP, Green, LeBron, AD, Howard and the best backup lineup would be Caruso, Bradley, Thabo, Kuzma, McGee. The reason I thought that was the starters have LeBron and AD as playmakers while the bench has Caruso and Bradley. It's a much more balanced lineup. KCP/Green is also the better 3-shooting combo to surround LeBron with. I like that your analysis might gel with that.


Will post once I clean things a bit and remove what I think are outliers. 2017 data currently shows he was a + defender against just about every position including PGs. Perhaps the 2018 season was an off year. I'll need to drill down a bit deeper in the data.


Both Bradley and KCP seemed to drop in effectiveness when they were on teams with a poor defensive C. I've stated it a few times but I think the combo of AD/Howard is going to boost the defensive impact of KCP and Bradley. Their defensive style is in the face of the perimeter player which makes them vulnerable to blow-bys. That doesn't hurt as much with a defensive PF/C.


True, but this will get both AD and Howard in foul trouble every night. I’m all for aggressive defensive schemes and play, but KCP is unfocused with his in the face defense. He lacks ability to anticipate on an elite level and often gets lost. I question if he can play a solid disciplined role; team defense.
2019-20
PG: James16, Caruso20, Bradley4, Rondo4, Norvell4
SG: Green24, Pope10, Bradley8, Daniels4, Cook2
SF: Kuzma22, James16, THT6, Caroline4
PF: Davis32, Kuzma10, Cacok4, Dudley2
C: McGee22, Howard22, Davis2, Antetokounmpo2
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Re: The Cousins injury thread 

Post#163 » by Ball so hard » Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:45 pm

zimpy27 wrote:
Ball so hard wrote:
zimpy27 wrote:

Keep the analysis coming.
KCP seems a PG/SG defender and Bradley seems to be an SG/SF defender.

Both players gamble and hassle, they need a good defensive Frontcourt to be effective. They need people to clean up the gambles they lose. Here you have him being lauded as the best perimeter defender only 2 years ago.
https://www.flohoops.com/articles/5050579-is-avery-bradley-the-best-perimeter-defender-in-the-league

Maybe it's worth doing a 2-year analysis.

In any case, I actually thought the best starting lineup would be KCP, Green, LeBron, AD, Howard and the best backup lineup would be Caruso, Bradley, Thabo, Kuzma, McGee. The reason I thought that was the starters have LeBron and AD as playmakers while the bench has Caruso and Bradley. It's a much more balanced lineup. KCP/Green is also the better 3-shooting combo to surround LeBron with. I like that your analysis might gel with that.


Will post once I clean things a bit and remove what I think are outliers. 2017 data currently shows he was a + defender against just about every position including PGs. Perhaps the 2018 season was an off year. I'll need to drill down a bit deeper in the data.


Both Bradley and KCP seemed to drop in effectiveness when they were on teams with a poor defensive C. I've stated it a few times but I think the combo of AD/Howard is going to boost the defensive impact of KCP and Bradley. Their defensive style is in the face of the perimeter player which makes them vulnerable to blow-bys. That doesn't hurt as much with a defensive PF/C.


Ran the numbers again without excluding any possession. I essentially took all the numbers from NBA.com and throw them into a spread sheet, then apply weighting to Player PTS DIFF relative to total possessions.

Bradley's Weighted Player PTS DIFF by position is as follows:

2018
C - 18 possessions. Centers scored a combined net +40 points more than their season average.
PF - 79 possessions. PF scored a combined net +67 more than their season average.
SF - 312 possessions. SF combined under performed their their season average by -10 points.
SG - 829 possessions. SG scored a combined net +6 points more than their season average.
PG - 412 possessions. PG scored a combined net +41 points more than their season average.

2017
C - 19 possessions. Centers scored a combined net +3 points more than their season average.
PF - 60 possessions. PF combined under performed their their season average by -12 points
SF - 251 possessions. SF combined under performed their their season average by -1 point.
SG - 797 possessions. SG combined under performed their their season average by -58 point.
PG - 351 possessions. PG scored a combined net +8 points more than their season average.

Are we going to to see the 2017 Bradley or the 2018 Bradley?
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Re: The Cousins injury thread 

Post#164 » by zimpy27 » Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:16 pm

Ball so hard wrote:
zimpy27 wrote:
Ball so hard wrote:
Will post once I clean things a bit and remove what I think are outliers. 2017 data currently shows he was a + defender against just about every position including PGs. Perhaps the 2018 season was an off year. I'll need to drill down a bit deeper in the data.


Both Bradley and KCP seemed to drop in effectiveness when they were on teams with a poor defensive C. I've stated it a few times but I think the combo of AD/Howard is going to boost the defensive impact of KCP and Bradley. Their defensive style is in the face of the perimeter player which makes them vulnerable to blow-bys. That doesn't hurt as much with a defensive PF/C.


Ran the numbers again without excluding any possession. I essentially took all the numbers from NBA.com and throw them into a spread sheet, then apply weighting to Player PTS DIFF relative to total possessions.

Bradley's Weighted Player PTS DIFF by position is as follows:

2018
C - 18 possessions. Centers scored a combined net +40 points more than their season average.
PF - 79 possessions. PF scored a combined net +67 more than their season average.
SF - 312 possessions. SF combined under performed their their season average by -10 points.
SG - 829 possessions. SG scored a combined net +6 points more than their season average.
PG - 412 possessions. PG scored a combined net +41 points more than their season average.

2017
C - 19 possessions. Centers scored a combined net +3 points more than their season average.
PF - 60 possessions. PF combined under performed their their season average by -12 points
SF - 251 possessions. SF combined under performed their their season average by -1 point.
SG - 797 possessions. SG combined under performed their their season average by -58 point.
PG - 351 possessions. PG scored a combined net +8 points more than their season average.

Are we going to to see the 2017 Bradley or the 2018 Bradley?


Well done!

Very interesting, I think Bradley 2017 is the hope. Does Caruso rank above both KCP and Bradley? I heard you mention him in the other thread.
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Re: The Cousins injury thread 

Post#165 » by Ball so hard » Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:30 pm

Updated KCP's Weighted Player PTS DIFF by position is as follows:

2018
C - 25 possessions. Centers scored a combined net +86 points more than their season average.
PF - 105 possessions. PF scored a combined net +91 points more than their season average.
SF - 216 possessions. SF scored a combined net +17 points more than their season average.
SG - 707 possessions. SG under performed their their season average by -59 points.
PG - 293 possessions. PG under performed their their season average by -51 points.

2017
C - 32 possessions. Centers under performed their their season average by -13 points.
PF - 100 possessions. PF scored a combined net +1 points more than their season average.
SF - 342 possessions. SF scored a combined net +9 points more than their season average.
SG - 1097 possessions. SG scored a combined net +18 points more than their season average.
PG - 272 possessions. PG under performed their their season average by -4 points.
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Re: The Cousins injury thread 

Post#166 » by zimpy27 » Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:38 pm

Ball so hard wrote:Updated KCP's Weighted Player PTS DIFF by position is as follows:

2018
C - 25 possessions. Centers scored a combined net +86 points more than their season average.
PF - 105 possessions. PF scored a combined net +91 points more than their season average.
SF - 216 possessions. SF scored a combined net +17 points more than their season average.
SG - 707 possessions. SG under performed their their season average by -59 points.
PG - 293 possessions. PG under performed their their season average by -51 points.

2017
C - 32 possessions. Centers under performed their their season average by -13 points.
PF - 100 possessions. PF scored a combined net +1 points more than their season average.
SF - 342 possessions. SF scored a combined net +9 points more than their season average.
SG - 1097 possessions. SG scored a combined net +18 points more than their season average.
PG - 272 possessions. PG under performed their their season average by -4 points.



Seemed to do better with Chandler and McGee as I thought he would. His offense suffered last season because of the terrible rotation, he's a guy who needs a set role on that end.
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Re: The Cousins injury thread 

Post#167 » by stan francisco » Thu Sep 12, 2019 12:17 am

If KCP continues gambling on defense, AD and DH will be in foul trouble every night. He needs to understand and operate from a team defense mindset, not gambling for the steal. This is why I have him at no more than 10 MPG in my rotations.

DMC would’ve helped KCP’s defensive stats more than DH will, simply because of higher FG%. With DH missing most of his shots (that are not dunks), KCP won’t have the advantage of a set defense and will therefore chase the fast break and pick up cheap fouls like he often does on the fast breaks. This slight down grade at the C will affect his +/- and his PT negatively.
2019-20
PG: James16, Caruso20, Bradley4, Rondo4, Norvell4
SG: Green24, Pope10, Bradley8, Daniels4, Cook2
SF: Kuzma22, James16, THT6, Caroline4
PF: Davis32, Kuzma10, Cacok4, Dudley2
C: McGee22, Howard22, Davis2, Antetokounmpo2
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Re: The Cousins injury thread 

Post#168 » by zimpy27 » Thu Sep 12, 2019 2:39 am

stan francisco wrote:If KCP continues gambling on defense, AD and DH will be in foul trouble every night. He needs to understand and operate from a team defense mindset, not gambling for the steal. This is why I have him at no more than 10 MPG in my rotations.

DMC would’ve helped KCP’s defensive stats more than DH will, simply because of higher FG%. With DH missing most of his shots (that are not dunks), KCP won’t have the advantage of a set defense and will therefore chase the fast break and pick up cheap fouls like he often does on the fast breaks. This slight down grade at the C will affect his +/- and his PT negatively.


They don't have to foul him, they should go for the block shot help. It's more the deterrent of Davis and DH.
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Re: The Cousins injury thread 

Post#169 » by Ball so hard » Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:05 pm

Caruso's Weighted Player PTS DIFF by position is as follows:

2018
C - 15 possessions. Centers scored a combined net +9 points more than their season average.
PF - 37 possessions. PF combined under performed their their season average by -4 points.
SF - 110 possessions. SF scored a combined net +71 points more than their season average.
SG - 193 possessions. SG scored a combined net +39 points more than their season average.
PG - 272 possessions. PG combined under performed their their season average by -141 points.

2017
C - 13 possessions. Centers scored a combined net +59 points more than their season average.
PF - 43 possessions. PF scored a combined net +65 points more than their season average.
SF - 48 possessions. SF combined under performed their their season average by -30 point.
SG - 129 possessions. SG scored a combined net +53 points more than their season average.
PG - 292 possessions. PG combined under performed their their season average by -81 point.

A few patterns are evident:
- He struggled in both years guarding SGs.
- He was very good in both years guarding PGs.
- More than double the time he spent guarding SF in 2018 and he became a negative. He did well guarding SFs on a limited basis.

For context, he spent a good amount of time defending some quality players at the PG spot. Some of which includes Bledsoe, Lillard, Kyrie, D'angelo, Dinwiddie, etc.
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Re: The Cousins injury thread 

Post#170 » by zimpy27 » Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:50 pm

Ball so hard wrote:Caruso's Weighted Player PTS DIFF by position is as follows:

2018
C - 15 possessions. Centers scored a combined net +9 points more than their season average.
PF - 37 possessions. PF combined under performed their their season average by -4 points.
SF - 110 possessions. SF scored a combined net +71 points more than their season average.
SG - 193 possessions. SG scored a combined net +39 points more than their season average.
PG - 272 possessions. PG combined under performed their their season average by -141 points.

2017
C - 13 possessions. Centers scored a combined net +59 points more than their season average.
PF - 43 possessions. PF scored a combined net +65 points more than their season average.
SF - 48 possessions. SF combined under performed their their season average by -30 point.
SG - 129 possessions. SG scored a combined net +53 points more than their season average.
PG - 292 possessions. PG combined under performed their their season average by -81 point.

A few patterns are evident:
- He struggled in both years guarding SGs.
- He was very good in both years guarding PGs.
- More than double the time he spent guarding SF in 2018 and he became a negative. He did well guarding SFs on a limited basis.

For context, he spent a good amount of time defending some quality players at the PG spot. Some of which includes Bledsoe, Lillard, Kyrie, D'angelo, Dinwiddie, etc.


Thanks for that!

That's some good PG defense.
He'd be a great fit with Bradley, I already though he might be because offensively neither can run an offense alone but together they could.

He also has potential to start.

What about the backup SF position? Can Kuzma or Green cover that defensively?
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Re: The Cousins injury thread 

Post#171 » by Ball so hard » Thu Sep 12, 2019 2:36 pm

Kuzma's Weighted Player PTS DIFF by position is as follows:

2018
C - 175 possessions. Centers scored a combined net +122 points more than their season average.
PF - 699 possessions. PF combined under performed their their season average by -60 points.
SF - 485 possessions. SF combined under performed their their season average by -18 points.
SG - 303 possessions. SG combined under performed their their season average by -28 points.
PG - 164 possessions. PG scored a combined net +56 points more than their season average.

2017
C - 164 possessions. Centers scored a combined net +2 points more than their season average.
PF - 773 possessions. PF scored a combined net +51 points more than their season average.
SF - 431 possessions. SF combined under performed their their season average by -67 point.
SG - 268 possessions. SG combined under performed their their season average by -18 point.
PG - 113 possessions. PG scored a combined net +47 points more than their season average.

- Like many of us suspected... he's terrible defending centers.
- Got considerably better his second year defending PF
- Solid both years defending SF
- I'm kind of mystified by his numbers against SGs

For my sanity check on his 2018 SG numbers:

Elite SGs he had a positive impact while defending (Total possessions 74; -33 points):
Luka
Klay
Eric Gordon
Donovan Mitchell
Gary Harris
Booker
Buddy
Redick
Brogdon

Negative impact while defending (Total possessions 33; + 30 points):
Derozan
Butler
Beal
Lou
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Re: The Cousins injury thread 

Post#172 » by zimpy27 » Thu Sep 12, 2019 2:47 pm

Ball so hard wrote:Kuzma's Weighted Player PTS DIFF by position is as follows:

2018
C - 175 possessions. Centers scored a combined net +122 points more than their season average.
PF - 699 possessions. PF combined under performed their their season average by -60 points.
SF - 485 possessions. SF combined under performed their their season average by -18 points.
SG - 303 possessions. SG combined under performed their their season average by -28 points.
PG - 164 possessions. PG scored a combined net +56 points more than their season average.

2017
C - 164 possessions. Centers scored a combined net +2 points more than their season average.
PF - 773 possessions. PF scored a combined net +51 points more than their season average.
SF - 431 possessions. SF combined under performed their their season average by -67 point.
SG - 268 possessions. SG combined under performed their their season average by -18 point.
PG - 113 possessions. PG scored a combined net +47 points more than their season average.

- Like many of us suspected... he's terrible defending centers.
- Got considerably better his second year defending PF
- Solid both years defending SF
- I'm kind of mystified by his numbers against SGs


Well that's surprising. He'd be fine as an SF, I had no idea he was sufficient from SG to PF.
How can he be that good against SGs? His foot speed must be better than I thought.

This is actually pretty important news because it means that the Lakers don't need a backup SF.

You should make a whole thread of these for the players, very good content.
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Re: The Cousins injury thread 

Post#173 » by Ball so hard » Thu Sep 12, 2019 2:55 pm

zimpy27 wrote:
Ball so hard wrote:Kuzma's Weighted Player PTS DIFF by position is as follows:

2018
C - 175 possessions. Centers scored a combined net +122 points more than their season average.
PF - 699 possessions. PF combined under performed their their season average by -60 points.
SF - 485 possessions. SF combined under performed their their season average by -18 points.
SG - 303 possessions. SG combined under performed their their season average by -28 points.
PG - 164 possessions. PG scored a combined net +56 points more than their season average.

2017
C - 164 possessions. Centers scored a combined net +2 points more than their season average.
PF - 773 possessions. PF scored a combined net +51 points more than their season average.
SF - 431 possessions. SF combined under performed their their season average by -67 point.
SG - 268 possessions. SG combined under performed their their season average by -18 point.
PG - 113 possessions. PG scored a combined net +47 points more than their season average.

- Like many of us suspected... he's terrible defending centers.
- Got considerably better his second year defending PF
- Solid both years defending SF
- I'm kind of mystified by his numbers against SGs


Well that's surprising. He'd be fine as an SF, I had no idea he was sufficient from SG to PF.
How can he be that good against SGs? His foot speed must be better than I thought.

This is actually pretty important news because it means that the Lakers don't need a backup SF.

You should make a whole thread of these for the players, very good content.


Agree we should be fine at the SF. I edited my most to add a bit more color for his 2018 SG numbers.
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Re: The Cousins injury thread 

Post#174 » by zimpy27 » Thu Sep 12, 2019 3:25 pm

Ball so hard wrote:
zimpy27 wrote:
Ball so hard wrote:Kuzma's Weighted Player PTS DIFF by position is as follows:

2018
C - 175 possessions. Centers scored a combined net +122 points more than their season average.
PF - 699 possessions. PF combined under performed their their season average by -60 points.
SF - 485 possessions. SF combined under performed their their season average by -18 points.
SG - 303 possessions. SG combined under performed their their season average by -28 points.
PG - 164 possessions. PG scored a combined net +56 points more than their season average.

2017
C - 164 possessions. Centers scored a combined net +2 points more than their season average.
PF - 773 possessions. PF scored a combined net +51 points more than their season average.
SF - 431 possessions. SF combined under performed their their season average by -67 point.
SG - 268 possessions. SG combined under performed their their season average by -18 point.
PG - 113 possessions. PG scored a combined net +47 points more than their season average.

- Like many of us suspected... he's terrible defending centers.
- Got considerably better his second year defending PF
- Solid both years defending SF
- I'm kind of mystified by his numbers against SGs


Well that's surprising. He'd be fine as an SF, I had no idea he was sufficient from SG to PF.
How can he be that good against SGs? His foot speed must be better than I thought.

This is actually pretty important news because it means that the Lakers don't need a backup SF.

You should make a whole thread of these for the players, very good content.


Agree we should be fine at the SF. I edited my most to add a bit more color for his 2018 SG numbers.


He may be better suited as a SF than a PF. He really is a wing. He might be playing out position, seems crazy to have made him play C.
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Re: The Cousins injury thread 

Post#175 » by stan francisco » Thu Sep 12, 2019 8:24 pm

Ball so hard wrote:Kuzma's Weighted Player PTS DIFF by position is as follows:

2018
C - 175 possessions. Centers scored a combined net +122 points more than their season average.
PF - 699 possessions. PF combined under performed their their season average by -60 points.
SF - 485 possessions. SF combined under performed their their season average by -18 points.
SG - 303 possessions. SG combined under performed their their season average by -28 points.
PG - 164 possessions. PG scored a combined net +56 points more than their season average.

2017
C - 164 possessions. Centers scored a combined net +2 points more than their season average.
PF - 773 possessions. PF scored a combined net +51 points more than their season average.
SF - 431 possessions. SF combined under performed their their season average by -67 point.
SG - 268 possessions. SG combined under performed their their season average by -18 point.
PG - 113 possessions. PG scored a combined net +47 points more than their season average.

- Like many of us suspected... he's terrible defending centers.
- Got considerably better his second year defending PF
- Solid both years defending SF
- I'm kind of mystified by his numbers against SGs

For my sanity check on his 2018 SG numbers:

Elite SGs he had a positive impact while defending (Total possessions 74; -33 points):
Luka
Klay
Eric Gordon
Donovan Mitchell
Gary Harris
Booker
Buddy
Redick
Brogdon

Negative impact while defending (Total possessions 33; + 30 points):
Derozan
Butler
Beal
Lou



Before we got Green, I suggested starting Kuz at SG next to LBJ at PG and got laughed at around here.

James
Kuzma
Iggy
AD
JMG/DH
2019-20
PG: James16, Caruso20, Bradley4, Rondo4, Norvell4
SG: Green24, Pope10, Bradley8, Daniels4, Cook2
SF: Kuzma22, James16, THT6, Caroline4
PF: Davis32, Kuzma10, Cacok4, Dudley2
C: McGee22, Howard22, Davis2, Antetokounmpo2

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