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Players' individual defense rating on a 1-on-1 basis

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Players' individual defense rating on a 1-on-1 basis 

Post#1 » by Ball so hard » Thu Sep 12, 2019 3:41 pm

I wanted to see how some of our players did when defending certain positions. Specifically I wanted to see who would best defend PGs and therefore IMO should start since we most need someone who is competent at the PG position. There are obviously various metric used to rank defense, many of which factor in team defense, which i'd agree is far more important. I performed an analysis using Player PTS DIFF. Player PTS DIFF is an offensive player’s Points per 100 Possessions in a specific matchup compared to his season average Points per 100 Possessions. I checked Kuzma's Player PTS DIFF result and noted the result moved in the same direction as DWS and DBPM. For example: Kuzma's 2018 DWS and DBPM were 1.9 and -1.3, respectively. His 2017 DWS and DBPM were 2.3 and -1. My analysis of his PTS DIFF revealed an overall net +71 and +14 for 2018 and 2017, respectively. In other words, Kuzma's 2018 numbers got worse in both scenarios.

What exactly I did

I essentially took all the numbers from NBA.com and throw them into a spread sheet, then apply weighting to Player PTS DIFF relative to total possessions. For example, 1 possession had a Player PTS DIFF of +154; this would obviously skew the result if I kept as is. Therefore, I calculated a weighted Player PTS DIFF. For those who are pedantic... a + number is bad lol

Source data: https://stats.nba.com/player/203484/matchups/?sort=PLAYER_PTS&dir=1

I will be posting the results of various players throughout this thread. I will begin with Kuz (copied from another thread).

Kuzma's Weighted Player PTS DIFF by position is as follows:

2018
C - 175 possessions. Centers scored a combined net +122 points more than their season average.
PF - 699 possessions. PF combined under performed their their season average by -60 points.
SF - 485 possessions. SF combined under performed their their season average by -18 points.
SG - 303 possessions. SG combined under performed their their season average by -28 points.
PG - 164 possessions. PG scored a combined net +56 points more than their season average.

2017
C - 164 possessions. Centers scored a combined net +2 points more than their season average.
PF - 773 possessions. PF scored a combined net +51 points more than their season average.
SF - 431 possessions. SF combined under performed their their season average by -67 point.
SG - 268 possessions. SG combined under performed their their season average by -18 point.
PG - 113 possessions. PG scored a combined net +47 points more than their season average.

- Like many of us suspected... he's terrible defending centers.
- Got considerably better his second year defending PF
- Solid both years defending SF
- I'm kind of mystified by his numbers against SGs

For my sanity check on his 2018 SG numbers:

Elite SGs he had a positive impact while defending (Total possessions 74; -33 points):
Luka
Klay
Eric Gordon
Donovan Mitchell
Gary Harris
Booker
Buddy
Redick
Brogdon

Negative impact while defending (Total possessions 33; + 30 points):
Derozan
Butler
Beal
Lou
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Re: Players' individual defense rating on a 1-on-1 basis 

Post#2 » by Ball so hard » Thu Sep 12, 2019 3:44 pm

Bradley's Weighted Player PTS DIFF by position is as follows:

2018
C - 18 possessions. Centers scored a combined net +40 points more than their season average.
PF - 79 possessions. PF scored a combined net +67 more than their season average.
SF - 312 possessions. SF combined under performed their their season average by -10 points.
SG - 829 possessions. SG scored a combined net +6 points more than their season average.
PG - 412 possessions. PG scored a combined net +41 points more than their season average.

2017
C - 19 possessions. Centers scored a combined net +3 points more than their season average.
PF - 60 possessions. PF combined under performed their their season average by -12 points
SF - 251 possessions. SF combined under performed their their season average by -1 point.
SG - 797 possessions. SG combined under performed their their season average by -58 point.
PG - 351 possessions. PG scored a combined net +8 points more than their season average.
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Re: Players' individual defense rating on a 1-on-1 basis 

Post#3 » by Ball so hard » Thu Sep 12, 2019 3:45 pm

KCP's Weighted Player PTS DIFF by position is as follows:

2018
C - 25 possessions. Centers scored a combined net +86 points more than their season average.
PF - 105 possessions. PF scored a combined net +91 points more than their season average.
SF - 216 possessions. SF scored a combined net +17 points more than their season average.
SG - 707 possessions. SG under performed their their season average by -59 points.
PG - 293 possessions. PG under performed their their season average by -51 points.

2017
C - 32 possessions. Centers under performed their their season average by -13 points.
PF - 100 possessions. PF scored a combined net +1 points more than their season average.
SF - 342 possessions. SF scored a combined net +9 points more than their season average.
SG - 1097 possessions. SG scored a combined net +18 points more than their season average.
PG - 272 possessions. PG under performed their their season average by -4 points.
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Re: Players' individual defense rating on a 1-on-1 basis 

Post#4 » by Ball so hard » Thu Sep 12, 2019 3:47 pm

Caruso's Weighted Player PTS DIFF by position is as follows:

2018
C - 15 possessions. Centers scored a combined net +9 points more than their season average.
PF - 37 possessions. PF combined under performed their their season average by -4 points.
SF - 110 possessions. SF scored a combined net +71 points more than their season average.
SG - 193 possessions. SG scored a combined net +39 points more than their season average.
PG - 272 possessions. PG combined under performed their their season average by -141 points.

2017
C - 13 possessions. Centers scored a combined net +59 points more than their season average.
PF - 43 possessions. PF scored a combined net +65 points more than their season average.
SF - 48 possessions. SF combined under performed their their season average by -30 point.
SG - 129 possessions. SG scored a combined net +53 points more than their season average.
PG - 292 possessions. PG combined under performed their their season average by -81 point.

A few patterns are evident:
- He struggled in both years guarding SGs.
- He was very good in both years guarding PGs.
- More than double the time he spent guarding SF in 2018 and he became a negative. He did well guarding SFs on a limited basis.

For context, he spent a good amount of time defending some quality players at the PG spot. Some of which includes Bledsoe, Lillard, Kyrie, D'angelo, Dinwiddie, etc.
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Re: Players' individual defense rating on a 1-on-1 basis 

Post#5 » by Kilroy » Thu Sep 12, 2019 4:08 pm

Ball so hard wrote:I wanted to see how some of our players did when defending certain positions. Specifically I wanted to see who would best defend PGs and therefore IMO should start since we most need someone who is competent at the PG position. There are obviously various metric used to rank defense, many of which factor in team defense, which i'd agree is far more important. I performed an analysis using Player PTS DIFF. Player PTS DIFF is an offensive player’s Points per 100 Possessions in a specific matchup compared to his season average Points per 100 Possessions. I checked Kuzma's Player PTS DIFF result and noted the result moved in the same direction as DWS and DBPM. For example: Kuzma's 2018 DWS and DBPM were 1.9 and -1.3, respectively. His 2017 DWS and DBPM were 2.3 and -1. My analysis of his PTS DIFF revealed an overall net +71 and +14 for 2018 and 2017, respectively. In other words, Kuzma's 2018 numbers got worse in both scenarios.

What exactly I did

I essentially took all the numbers from NBA.com and throw them into a spread sheet, then apply weighting to Player PTS DIFF relative to total possessions. For example, 1 possession had a Player PTS DIFF of +154; this would obviously skew the result. Therefore, I calculated a weighted Player PTS DIFF. For those who are pedantic... a + number is bad lol

Source data: https://stats.nba.com/player/203484/matchups/?sort=PLAYER_PTS&dir=1

I will be posting the results of various players throughout this thread. I will begin with Kuz (copied from another thread).

Kuzma's Weighted Player PTS DIFF by position is as follows:

2018
C - 175 possessions. Centers scored a combined net +122 points more than their season average.
PF - 699 possessions. PF combined under performed their their season average by -60 points.
SF - 485 possessions. SF combined under performed their their season average by -18 points.
SG - 303 possessions. SG combined under performed their their season average by -28 points.
PG - 164 possessions. PG scored a combined net +56 points more than their season average.

2017
C - 164 possessions. Centers scored a combined net +2 points more than their season average.
PF - 773 possessions. PF scored a combined net +51 points more than their season average.
SF - 431 possessions. SF combined under performed their their season average by -67 point.
SG - 268 possessions. SG combined under performed their their season average by -18 point.
PG - 113 possessions. PG scored a combined net +47 points more than their season average.

- Like many of us suspected... he's terrible defending centers.
- Got considerably better his second year defending PF
- Solid both years defending SF
- I'm kind of mystified by his numbers against SGs

For my sanity check on his 2018 SG numbers:

Elite SGs he had a positive impact while defending (Total possessions 74; -33 points):
Luka
Klay
Eric Gordon
Donovan Mitchell
Gary Harris
Booker
Buddy
Redick
Brogdon

Negative impact while defending (Total possessions 33; + 30 points):
Derozan
Butler
Beal
Lou


The thing with this metric is it only takes into consideration what he does when he knows who he's guarding, is locked in and they have the ball.

I think a lot of his bad rep (and why I think he sucks at D) has more to do when he's trying to react to what the other team is doing. He's routinely out of position off ball, he's terrible at keeping his guy from getting to their spots, he basically looks clueless about where to be on the court when the opposing offense is setting up.

So I believe he's solid in ideal situations man on man, but that only tells a fraction of the story.

Also, can we stop calling him a PF now?
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Re: Players' individual defense rating on a 1-on-1 basis 

Post#6 » by Ball so hard » Thu Sep 12, 2019 4:14 pm

The thing with this metric is it only takes into consideration what he does when he knows who he's guarding, is locked in and they have the ball.

I think a lot of his bad rep (and why I think he sucks at D) has more to do when he's trying to react to what the other team is doing. He's routinely out of position off ball, he's terrible at keeping his guy from getting to their spots, he basically looks clueless about where to be on the court when the opposing offense is setting up.

So I believe he's solid in ideal situations man on man, but that only tells a fraction of the story.

Also, can we stop calling him a PF now?


This is a fair point.
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Re: Players' individual defense rating on a 1-on-1 basis 

Post#7 » by Kilroy » Thu Sep 12, 2019 4:27 pm

Ball so hard wrote:
The thing with this metric is it only takes into consideration what he does when he knows who he's guarding, is locked in and they have the ball.

I think a lot of his bad rep (and why I think he sucks at D) has more to do when he's trying to react to what the other team is doing. He's routinely out of position off ball, he's terrible at keeping his guy from getting to their spots, he basically looks clueless about where to be on the court when the opposing offense is setting up.

So I believe he's solid in ideal situations man on man, but that only tells a fraction of the story.

Also, can we stop calling him a PF now?


This is a fair point.


Sorry, got tunnel vision a bit and forgot to say good job on pulling together the stats... I'm not questioning the data at all. Just saying that the criticism of Kuz on D is justified and this data doesn't quite get at the core issue.
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Re: Players' individual defense rating on a 1-on-1 basis 

Post#8 » by Ball so hard » Thu Sep 12, 2019 4:45 pm

Kilroy wrote:
Ball so hard wrote:I wanted to see how some of our players did when defending certain positions. Specifically I wanted to see who would best defend PGs and therefore IMO should start since we most need someone who is competent at the PG position. There are obviously various metric used to rank defense, many of which factor in team defense, which i'd agree is far more important. I performed an analysis using Player PTS DIFF. Player PTS DIFF is an offensive player’s Points per 100 Possessions in a specific matchup compared to his season average Points per 100 Possessions. I checked Kuzma's Player PTS DIFF result and noted the result moved in the same direction as DWS and DBPM. For example: Kuzma's 2018 DWS and DBPM were 1.9 and -1.3, respectively. His 2017 DWS and DBPM were 2.3 and -1. My analysis of his PTS DIFF revealed an overall net +71 and +14 for 2018 and 2017, respectively. In other words, Kuzma's 2018 numbers got worse in both scenarios.

What exactly I did

I essentially took all the numbers from NBA.com and throw them into a spread sheet, then apply weighting to Player PTS DIFF relative to total possessions. For example, 1 possession had a Player PTS DIFF of +154; this would obviously skew the result. Therefore, I calculated a weighted Player PTS DIFF. For those who are pedantic... a + number is bad lol

Source data: https://stats.nba.com/player/203484/matchups/?sort=PLAYER_PTS&dir=1

I will be posting the results of various players throughout this thread. I will begin with Kuz (copied from another thread).

Kuzma's Weighted Player PTS DIFF by position is as follows:

2018
C - 175 possessions. Centers scored a combined net +122 points more than their season average.
PF - 699 possessions. PF combined under performed their their season average by -60 points.
SF - 485 possessions. SF combined under performed their their season average by -18 points.
SG - 303 possessions. SG combined under performed their their season average by -28 points.
PG - 164 possessions. PG scored a combined net +56 points more than their season average.

2017
C - 164 possessions. Centers scored a combined net +2 points more than their season average.
PF - 773 possessions. PF scored a combined net +51 points more than their season average.
SF - 431 possessions. SF combined under performed their their season average by -67 point.
SG - 268 possessions. SG combined under performed their their season average by -18 point.
PG - 113 possessions. PG scored a combined net +47 points more than their season average.

- Like many of us suspected... he's terrible defending centers.
- Got considerably better his second year defending PF
- Solid both years defending SF
- I'm kind of mystified by his numbers against SGs

For my sanity check on his 2018 SG numbers:

Elite SGs he had a positive impact while defending (Total possessions 74; -33 points):
Luka
Klay
Eric Gordon
Donovan Mitchell
Gary Harris
Booker
Buddy
Redick
Brogdon

Negative impact while defending (Total possessions 33; + 30 points):
Derozan
Butler
Beal
Lou


The thing with this metric is it only takes into consideration what he does when he knows who he's guarding, is locked in and they have the ball.

I think a lot of his bad rep (and why I think he sucks at D) has more to do when he's trying to react to what the other team is doing. He's routinely out of position off ball, he's terrible at keeping his guy from getting to their spots, he basically looks clueless about where to be on the court when the opposing offense is setting up.

So I believe he's solid in ideal situations man on man, but that only tells a fraction of the story.

Also, can we stop calling him a PF now?


Team PTS DIFF adds another component.

2018 Team PTS DIFF for Kuz
C - 175 possessions. An offensive player's team combined scored a net +80 points more than their season average.
PF - 699 possessions. An offensive player's team under performed their their season average by -45 points.
SF - 485 possessions. An offensive player's team combined scored a net +114 points more than their season average.
SG - 303 possessions. An offensive player's team combined scored a net +71 points more than their season average.
PG - 164 possessions. An offensive player's team combined scored a net +115 points more than their season average.

Team PTS DIFF paints a completely different picture. Perhaps this metric is even more useful.

Using Team PTS DIFF Kuz is hurting the team at every position except when defending PF. I think he's probably best at the 4 spot.
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Re: Players' individual defense rating on a 1-on-1 basis 

Post#9 » by zimpy27 » Thu Sep 12, 2019 4:55 pm

Ball so hard wrote:
Kilroy wrote:
Ball so hard wrote:I wanted to see how some of our players did when defending certain positions. Specifically I wanted to see who would best defend PGs and therefore IMO should start since we most need someone who is competent at the PG position. There are obviously various metric used to rank defense, many of which factor in team defense, which i'd agree is far more important. I performed an analysis using Player PTS DIFF. Player PTS DIFF is an offensive player’s Points per 100 Possessions in a specific matchup compared to his season average Points per 100 Possessions. I checked Kuzma's Player PTS DIFF result and noted the result moved in the same direction as DWS and DBPM. For example: Kuzma's 2018 DWS and DBPM were 1.9 and -1.3, respectively. His 2017 DWS and DBPM were 2.3 and -1. My analysis of his PTS DIFF revealed an overall net +71 and +14 for 2018 and 2017, respectively. In other words, Kuzma's 2018 numbers got worse in both scenarios.

What exactly I did

I essentially took all the numbers from NBA.com and throw them into a spread sheet, then apply weighting to Player PTS DIFF relative to total possessions. For example, 1 possession had a Player PTS DIFF of +154; this would obviously skew the result. Therefore, I calculated a weighted Player PTS DIFF. For those who are pedantic... a + number is bad lol

Source data: https://stats.nba.com/player/203484/matchups/?sort=PLAYER_PTS&dir=1

I will be posting the results of various players throughout this thread. I will begin with Kuz (copied from another thread).

Kuzma's Weighted Player PTS DIFF by position is as follows:

2018
C - 175 possessions. Centers scored a combined net +122 points more than their season average.
PF - 699 possessions. PF combined under performed their their season average by -60 points.
SF - 485 possessions. SF combined under performed their their season average by -18 points.
SG - 303 possessions. SG combined under performed their their season average by -28 points.
PG - 164 possessions. PG scored a combined net +56 points more than their season average.

2017
C - 164 possessions. Centers scored a combined net +2 points more than their season average.
PF - 773 possessions. PF scored a combined net +51 points more than their season average.
SF - 431 possessions. SF combined under performed their their season average by -67 point.
SG - 268 possessions. SG combined under performed their their season average by -18 point.
PG - 113 possessions. PG scored a combined net +47 points more than their season average.

- Like many of us suspected... he's terrible defending centers.
- Got considerably better his second year defending PF
- Solid both years defending SF
- I'm kind of mystified by his numbers against SGs

For my sanity check on his 2018 SG numbers:

Elite SGs he had a positive impact while defending (Total possessions 74; -33 points):
Luka
Klay
Eric Gordon
Donovan Mitchell
Gary Harris
Booker
Buddy
Redick
Brogdon

Negative impact while defending (Total possessions 33; + 30 points):
Derozan
Butler
Beal
Lou


The thing with this metric is it only takes into consideration what he does when he knows who he's guarding, is locked in and they have the ball.

I think a lot of his bad rep (and why I think he sucks at D) has more to do when he's trying to react to what the other team is doing. He's routinely out of position off ball, he's terrible at keeping his guy from getting to their spots, he basically looks clueless about where to be on the court when the opposing offense is setting up.

So I believe he's solid in ideal situations man on man, but that only tells a fraction of the story.

Also, can we stop calling him a PF now?


Team PTS DIFF adds another component.

2018 Team PTS DIFF for Kuz
C - 175 possessions. An offensive player's team combined scored a net +80 points more than their season average.
PF - 699 possessions. An offensive player's team under performed their their season average by -45 points.
SF - 485 possessions. An offensive player's team combined scored a net +114 points more than their season average.
SG - 303 possessions. An offensive player's team combined scored a net +71 points more than their season average.
PG - 164 possessions. An offensive player's team combined scored a net +115 points more than their season average.

Team PTS DIFF paints a completely different picture. Perhaps this metric is even more useful.

Using Team PTS DIFF Kuz is hurting the team at every position except when defending PF. I think he's probably best at the 4 spot.


Depends on the team context, with LeBron as an SF then sure Kuzma should be a PF, but with AD as a PF then he should be an SF. There wasn't any decent PF option but Kuz last season for the Lakers.
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Re: Players' individual defense rating on a 1-on-1 basis 

Post#10 » by Kilroy » Thu Sep 12, 2019 6:59 pm

zimpy27 wrote:
Ball so hard wrote:
Kilroy wrote:
The thing with this metric is it only takes into consideration what he does when he knows who he's guarding, is locked in and they have the ball.

I think a lot of his bad rep (and why I think he sucks at D) has more to do when he's trying to react to what the other team is doing. He's routinely out of position off ball, he's terrible at keeping his guy from getting to their spots, he basically looks clueless about where to be on the court when the opposing offense is setting up.

So I believe he's solid in ideal situations man on man, but that only tells a fraction of the story.

Also, can we stop calling him a PF now?


Team PTS DIFF adds another component.

2018 Team PTS DIFF for Kuz
C - 175 possessions. An offensive player's team combined scored a net +80 points more than their season average.
PF - 699 possessions. An offensive player's team under performed their their season average by -45 points.
SF - 485 possessions. An offensive player's team combined scored a net +114 points more than their season average.
SG - 303 possessions. An offensive player's team combined scored a net +71 points more than their season average.
PG - 164 possessions. An offensive player's team combined scored a net +115 points more than their season average.

Team PTS DIFF paints a completely different picture. Perhaps this metric is even more useful.

Using Team PTS DIFF Kuz is hurting the team at every position except when defending PF. I think he's probably best at the 4 spot.


Depends on the team context, with LeBron as an SF then sure Kuzma should be a PF, but with AD as a PF then he should be an SF. There wasn't any decent PF option but Kuz last season for the Lakers.


Lineup has nothing to do with it... Kuzma isn't a PF period. If we're forced to play him at the 4 to cover for LeBron, that's a compromise... The fact that we're saving LeBron from defending bigs, and only have Kuzma to throw in to do that, doesn't make Kuz a 4, it just means we're asking him to play out of position.
Kuz is a natural 3 with SG tendencies and talents. IMO, forcing him to play the 4 stifles him.
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Re: Players' individual defense rating on a 1-on-1 basis 

Post#11 » by zimpy27 » Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:33 pm

Kilroy wrote:
zimpy27 wrote:
Ball so hard wrote:
Team PTS DIFF adds another component.

2018 Team PTS DIFF for Kuz
C - 175 possessions. An offensive player's team combined scored a net +80 points more than their season average.
PF - 699 possessions. An offensive player's team under performed their their season average by -45 points.
SF - 485 possessions. An offensive player's team combined scored a net +114 points more than their season average.
SG - 303 possessions. An offensive player's team combined scored a net +71 points more than their season average.
PG - 164 possessions. An offensive player's team combined scored a net +115 points more than their season average.

Team PTS DIFF paints a completely different picture. Perhaps this metric is even more useful.

Using Team PTS DIFF Kuz is hurting the team at every position except when defending PF. I think he's probably best at the 4 spot.


Depends on the team context, with LeBron as an SF then sure Kuzma should be a PF, but with AD as a PF then he should be an SF. There wasn't any decent PF option but Kuz last season for the Lakers.


Lineup has nothing to do with it... Kuzma isn't a PF period. If we're forced to play him at the 4 to cover for LeBron, that's a compromise... The fact that we're saving LeBron from defending bigs, and only have Kuzma to throw in to do that, doesn't make Kuz a 4, it just means we're asking him to play out of position.
Kuz is a natural 3 with SG tendencies and talents. IMO, forcing him to play the 4 stifles him.


Well in the stats I was responding to it shows that Kuzma is ideal at the 4 for the best team defense.

I think you are right, he's probably a 3. I would play him as a 4 long before a 2 though because he wouldn't be able to defend against PGs.
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Re: Players' individual defense rating on a 1-on-1 basis 

Post#12 » by stan francisco » Thu Sep 12, 2019 11:26 pm

Ball so hard wrote:I wanted to see how some of our players did when defending certain positions. Specifically I wanted to see who would best defend PGs and therefore IMO should start since we most need someone who is competent at the PG position. There are obviously various metric used to rank defense, many of which factor in team defense, which i'd agree is far more important. I performed an analysis using Player PTS DIFF. Player PTS DIFF is an offensive player’s Points per 100 Possessions in a specific matchup compared to his season average Points per 100 Possessions. I checked Kuzma's Player PTS DIFF result and noted the result moved in the same direction as DWS and DBPM. For example: Kuzma's 2018 DWS and DBPM were 1.9 and -1.3, respectively. His 2017 DWS and DBPM were 2.3 and -1. My analysis of his PTS DIFF revealed an overall net +71 and +14 for 2018 and 2017, respectively. In other words, Kuzma's 2018 numbers got worse in both scenarios.

What exactly I did

I essentially took all the numbers from NBA.com and throw them into a spread sheet, then apply weighting to Player PTS DIFF relative to total possessions. For example, 1 possession had a Player PTS DIFF of +154; this would obviously skew the result if I kept as is. Therefore, I calculated a weighted Player PTS DIFF. For those who are pedantic... a + number is bad lol

Source data: https://stats.nba.com/player/203484/matchups/?sort=PLAYER_PTS&dir=1

I will be posting the results of various players throughout this thread. I will begin with Kuz (copied from another thread).

Kuzma's Weighted Player PTS DIFF by position is as follows:

2018
C - 175 possessions. Centers scored a combined net +122 points more than their season average.
PF - 699 possessions. PF combined under performed their their season average by -60 points.
SF - 485 possessions. SF combined under performed their their season average by -18 points.
SG - 303 possessions. SG combined under performed their their season average by -28 points.
PG - 164 possessions. PG scored a combined net +56 points more than their season average.

2017
C - 164 possessions. Centers scored a combined net +2 points more than their season average.
PF - 773 possessions. PF scored a combined net +51 points more than their season average.
SF - 431 possessions. SF combined under performed their their season average by -67 point.
SG - 268 possessions. SG combined under performed their their season average by -18 point.
PG - 113 possessions. PG scored a combined net +47 points more than their season average.

- Like many of us suspected... he's terrible defending centers.
- Got considerably better his second year defending PF
- Solid both years defending SF
- I'm kind of mystified by his numbers against SGs

For my sanity check on his 2018 SG numbers:

Elite SGs he had a positive impact while defending (Total possessions 74; -33 points):
Luka
Klay
Eric Gordon
Donovan Mitchell
Gary Harris
Booker
Buddy
Redick
Brogdon

Negative impact while defending (Total possessions 33; + 30 points):
Derozan
Butler
Beal
Lou


Dude, keep doing this and you might get hired by some analytics department. Nice work.

I guess we can then expect some continued defensive improvement from Kuz since last year. Our third star.

Interesting stats. I wonder what his impact is like in an overall team defense measurement. He gets lost playing team defense at times according to the old eye test, wondering if it tips the stats needle at all.

Question: I suspect that these numbers could be different if you measured before vs after the dreaded Christmas Day injury win; is it easy to compare the two parts of the season? Pre and post Hollidays?

To me, the most relevant stretch to measure from last year would be until Dec 24, 2018. After that day, all stats matter less in my opinion in terms of what could be expected going forward; because of the injury chaos, the home stretch could be filled with anomalies. The season as over after that game and everyone knew it. It was garbage time and practice time, little else. The one good thing that came out of it was that Caruso finally got to show what he can do, got to try his wings.
2019-20
PG: James16, Caruso20, Bradley4, Rondo4, Norvell4
SG: Green24, Pope10, Bradley8, Daniels4, Cook2
SF: Kuzma22, James16, THT6, Caroline4
PF: Davis32, Kuzma10, Cacok4, Dudley2
C: McGee22, Howard22, Davis2, Antetokounmpo2
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Re: Players' individual defense rating on a 1-on-1 basis 

Post#13 » by Landsberger » Fri Sep 13, 2019 12:45 am

Kilroy wrote:
Ball so hard wrote:
The thing with this metric is it only takes into consideration what he does when he knows who he's guarding, is locked in and they have the ball.

I think a lot of his bad rep (and why I think he sucks at D) has more to do when he's trying to react to what the other team is doing. He's routinely out of position off ball, he's terrible at keeping his guy from getting to their spots, he basically looks clueless about where to be on the court when the opposing offense is setting up.

So I believe he's solid in ideal situations man on man, but that only tells a fraction of the story.

Also, can we stop calling him a PF now?


This is a fair point.


Sorry, got tunnel vision a bit and forgot to say good job on pulling together the stats... I'm not questioning the data at all. Just saying that the criticism of Kuz on D is justified and this data doesn't quite get at the core issue.


You with tunnel vision on Kuzma's deficiencies is like the sun rising...... :lol:

I disagree with the thought he's out of position all of the time. He was trying to play in a system with a lot of young guys where were out of position. Ball could get the steals but he broke the defense routinely and others were scrambling constantly to cover for it. McGee would leave his guy to chase blocks breaking the Defense etc. We had poor coaching and constantly changing lineups. Hard to gather anything from it IMHO.

Kuzma needs discipline on defense and a consistent system to play in. Is he gong to be a "stopper" on that end? Probably not, but the rep that he's this terrible defender is vastly overblown IMHO.
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Re: Players' individual defense rating on a 1-on-1 basis 

Post#14 » by Ball so hard » Fri Sep 13, 2019 1:30 pm

zimpy27 wrote:
Kilroy wrote:
zimpy27 wrote:
Depends on the team context, with LeBron as an SF then sure Kuzma should be a PF, but with AD as a PF then he should be an SF. There wasn't any decent PF option but Kuz last season for the Lakers.


Lineup has nothing to do with it... Kuzma isn't a PF period. If we're forced to play him at the 4 to cover for LeBron, that's a compromise... The fact that we're saving LeBron from defending bigs, and only have Kuzma to throw in to do that, doesn't make Kuz a 4, it just means we're asking him to play out of position.
Kuz is a natural 3 with SG tendencies and talents. IMO, forcing him to play the 4 stifles him.


Well in the stats I was responding to it shows that Kuzma is ideal at the 4 for the best team defense.

I think you are right, he's probably a 3. I would play him as a 4 long before a 2 though because he wouldn't be able to defend against PGs.


Yea I agree he's probably a 3 that can play some 4 in stretches. I think we can also all agree he shouldn't play center, as he hurts the team badly while play the 5.
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Re: Players' individual defense rating on a 1-on-1 basis 

Post#15 » by Ball so hard » Fri Sep 13, 2019 2:02 pm

stan francisco wrote:
Dude, keep doing this and you might get hired by some analytics department. Nice work.

I guess we can then expect some continued defensive improvement from Kuz since last year. Our third star.

Interesting stats. I wonder what his impact is like in an overall team defense measurement. He gets lost playing team defense at times according to the old eye test, wondering if it tips the stats needle at all.

Question: I suspect that these numbers could be different if you measured before vs after the dreaded Christmas Day injury win; is it easy to compare the two parts of the season? Pre and post Hollidays?

To me, the most relevant stretch to measure from last year would be until Dec 24, 2018. After that day, all stats matter less in my opinion in terms of what could be expected going forward; because of the injury chaos, the home stretch could be filled with anomalies. The season as over after that game and everyone knew it. It was garbage time and practice time, little else. The one good thing that came out of it was that Caruso finally got to show what he can do, got to try his wings.


Before Christmas:

C - 115 possessions. Centers scored a combined net +112 points more than their season average.
PF - 397 possessions. PF combined under performed their their season average by -212 points.
SF - 230 possessions. SF combined under performed their their season average by -71 points.
SG - 231 possessions. SG scored a combined net +8 points more than their season average.
PG - 90 possessions. PG scored a combined net +53 points more than their season average.

Post Christmas:
C - 99 possessions. Centers scored a combined net +116 points more than their season average.
PF - 534 possessions. PF scored a combined net +9 points more than their season average.
SF - 462 possessions. SF combined under performed their their season average by -32 point.
SG - 203 possessions. SG combined under performed their their season average by -95 point.
PG - 138 possessions. PG scored a combined net +65 points more than their season average.

Like you guessed, he got considerably worse (especially at the PF position) in aggregate post Christmas.
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Re: Players' individual defense rating on a 1-on-1 basis 

Post#16 » by stan francisco » Fri Sep 13, 2019 2:07 pm

Ball so hard wrote:
stan francisco wrote:
Dude, keep doing this and you might get hired by some analytics department. Nice work.

I guess we can then expect some continued defensive improvement from Kuz since last year. Our third star.

Interesting stats. I wonder what his impact is like in an overall team defense measurement. He gets lost playing team defense at times according to the old eye test, wondering if it tips the stats needle at all.

Question: I suspect that these numbers could be different if you measured before vs after the dreaded Christmas Day injury win; is it easy to compare the two parts of the season? Pre and post Hollidays?

To me, the most relevant stretch to measure from last year would be until Dec 24, 2018. After that day, all stats matter less in my opinion in terms of what could be expected going forward; because of the injury chaos, the home stretch could be filled with anomalies. The season as over after that game and everyone knew it. It was garbage time and practice time, little else. The one good thing that came out of it was that Caruso finally got to show what he can do, got to try his wings.


Before Christmas:

C - 115 possessions. Centers scored a combined net +112 points more than their season average.
PF - 397 possessions. PF combined under performed their their season average by -212 points.
SF - 230 possessions. SF combined under performed their their season average by -71 points.
SG - 231 possessions. SG scored a combined net +8 points more than their season average.
PG - 90 possessions. PG scored a combined net +53 points more than their season average.

Post Christmas:
C - 99 possessions. Centers scored a combined net +116 points more than their season average.
PF - 534 possessions. PF scored a combined net +9 points more than their season average.
SF - 462 possessions. SF combined under performed their their season average by -32 point.
SG - 203 possessions. SG combined under performed their their season average by -95 point.
PG - 138 possessions. PG scored a combined net +65 points more than their season average.

Like you guessed, he got considerably worse (especially at the PF position) in aggregate post Christmas.


Thank you kindly for looking into it, sir.

I’ve been trying to argue this around here for a long time, that last season’s stats after the Christmas game are not indicative of anything. With five(?) starters injured you kind of can’t use any meaningful data to predict what can be expected next season.
2019-20
PG: James16, Caruso20, Bradley4, Rondo4, Norvell4
SG: Green24, Pope10, Bradley8, Daniels4, Cook2
SF: Kuzma22, James16, THT6, Caroline4
PF: Davis32, Kuzma10, Cacok4, Dudley2
C: McGee22, Howard22, Davis2, Antetokounmpo2
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Re: Players' individual defense rating on a 1-on-1 basis 

Post#17 » by Ball so hard » Fri Sep 13, 2019 2:47 pm

Danny's Weighted Player PTS DIFF by position is as follows:

2018
C - 17 possessions. Centers scored a combined net +66 points more than their season average.
PF - 139 possessions. PF scored a combined net +21 points more than their season average.
SF - 221 possessions. SF combined under performed their their season average by -51 points.
SG - 900 possessions. SG combined under performed their their season average by -98 points.
PG - 445 possessions. PG scored a combined net +28 points more than their season average.

2017
C - 16 possessions. Centers scored a combined net +56 points more than their season average.
PF - 143 possessions. PF scored a combined net +38 points more than their season average.
SF - 321 possessions. SF combined under performed their their season average by -6 point.
SG - 644 possessions. SG combined under performed their their season average by -71 point.
PG - 172 possessions. PG scored a combined net +38 points more than their season average.

Well... Danny is by far the most consistent player I've analyzed so far. He's very good at defending 2s and 3s, but he's considerably better at defending 2s. This is consistent with my eye test, as I've definitely seen 3s overpower him fairly often.
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Re: Players' individual defense rating on a 1-on-1 basis 

Post#18 » by Ball so hard » Fri Sep 13, 2019 3:35 pm

This will be controversial...

Rondo's Weighted Player PTS DIFF by position is as follows:

2018
C - 40 possessions. Centers scored a combined net +27 points more than their season average.
PF - 84 possessions. PF scored a combined net +35 points more than their season average.
SF - 154 possessions. SF combined under performed their their season average by -10 points.
SG - 277 possessions. SG scored a combined net +24 points more than their season average.
PG - 696 possessions. PG combined under performed their their season average by -148 points.

2017
C - 36 possessions. Centers scored a combined net +18 points more than their season average.
PF - 96 possessions. PF scored a combined net +24 points more than their season average.
SF - 162 possessions. SF scored a combined net +10 points more than their season average.
SG - 223 possessions. SG scored a combined net +31 points more than their season average.
PG - 748 possessions. PG combined under performed their their season average by -104 point.

Obviously this doesn't tell the whole story. Most would agree Rondo should spend a significant amount of time on the bench. However, his defense against PG has been consistently good. I've spent more time scrubbing his numbers than any other player and I keep arriving at the same conclusion.

Further breakdown of his PG numbers for 2018:
- Sample size for PGs is 66
- Positive impact guarding 44 PG vs. negative guarding 22

Top 10 positive (good) point differential:
1. Darren Collison
2. Jamal Murray
3. Russell Westbrook
4. D'Angelo Russell
5. Ricky Rubio
6. T.J. McConnell
7. De'Aaron Fox
8. Emmanuel Mudiay
9. Kemba Walker
10. Jeff Teague

Top 10 negative (bad) point differential:
1. James Harden
2. Elie Okobo
3. Andrew Harrison
4. Stephen Curry
5. Jalen Brunson
6. Dennis Schroder
7. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
8. Jerryd Bayless
9. Kris Dunn
10.Patty Mills
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Re: Players' individual defense rating on a 1-on-1 basis 

Post#19 » by stan francisco » Fri Sep 13, 2019 3:43 pm

Ball so hard wrote:This will be controversial...

Rondo's Weighted Player PTS DIFF by position is as follows:

2018
C - 40 possessions. Centers scored a combined net +27 points more than their season average.
PF - 84 possessions. PF scored a combined net +35 points more than their season average.
SF - 154 possessions. SF combined under performed their their season average by -10 points.
SG - 277 possessions. SG scored a combined net +24 points more than their season average.
PG - 696 possessions. PG combined under performed their their season average by -148 points.

2017
C - 36 possessions. Centers scored a combined net +18 points more than their season average.
PF - 96 possessions. PF scored a combined net +24 points more than their season average.
SF - 162 possessions. SF scored a combined net +10 points more than their season average.
SG - 223 possessions. SG scored a combined net +31 points more than their season average.
PG - 748 possessions. PG combined under performed their their season average by -104 point.

Obviously this doesn't tell the whole story. Most would agree Rondo should spend a significant amount of time on the bench. However, his defense against PG has been consistently good. I've spent more time scrubbing his numbers than any other player and I keep arriving at the same conclusion.

Further breakdown of his PG numbers for 2018:
- Sample size for PGs is 66
- Positive impact guarding 44 PG vs. negative guarding 22

Top 10 positive (good) point differential:
1. Darren Collison
2. Jamal Murray
3. Russell Westbrook
4. D'Angelo Russell
5. Ricky Rubio
6. T.J. McConnell
7. De'Aaron Fox
8. Emmanuel Mudiay
9. Kemba Walker
10. Jeff Teague

Top 10 negative (bad) point differential:
1. James Harden
2. Elie Okobo
3. Andrew Harrison
4. Stephen Curry
5. Jalen Brunson
6. Dennis Schroder
7. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
8. Jerryd Bayless
9. Kris Dunn
10.Patty Mills


Again, eye test confirmed. Thanks for doing this.
2019-20
PG: James16, Caruso20, Bradley4, Rondo4, Norvell4
SG: Green24, Pope10, Bradley8, Daniels4, Cook2
SF: Kuzma22, James16, THT6, Caroline4
PF: Davis32, Kuzma10, Cacok4, Dudley2
C: McGee22, Howard22, Davis2, Antetokounmpo2
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Re: Players' individual defense rating on a 1-on-1 basis 

Post#20 » by tamaraw08 » Fri Sep 13, 2019 9:03 pm

Ball so hard wrote:This will be controversial...

Rondo's Weighted Player PTS DIFF by position is as follows:

2018
C - 40 possessions. Centers scored a combined net +27 points more than their season average.
PF - 84 possessions. PF scored a combined net +35 points more than their season average.
SF - 154 possessions. SF combined under performed their their season average by -10 points.
SG - 277 possessions. SG scored a combined net +24 points more than their season average.
PG - 696 possessions. PG combined under performed their their season average by -148 points.

2017
C - 36 possessions. Centers scored a combined net +18 points more than their season average.
PF - 96 possessions. PF scored a combined net +24 points more than their season average.
SF - 162 possessions. SF scored a combined net +10 points more than their season average.
SG - 223 possessions. SG scored a combined net +31 points more than their season average.
PG - 748 possessions. PG combined under performed their their season average by -104 point.

Obviously this doesn't tell the whole story. Most would agree Rondo should spend a significant amount of time on the bench. However, his defense against PG has been consistently good. I've spent more time scrubbing his numbers than any other player and I keep arriving at the same conclusion.

Further breakdown of his PG numbers for 2018:
- Sample size for PGs is 66
- Positive impact guarding 44 PG vs. negative guarding 22

Top 10 positive (good) point differential:
1. Darren Collison
2. Jamal Murray
3. Russell Westbrook
4. D'Angelo Russell
5. Ricky Rubio
6. T.J. McConnell
7. De'Aaron Fox
8. Emmanuel Mudiay
9. Kemba Walker
10. Jeff Teague

Top 10 negative (bad) point differential:
1. James Harden
2. Elie Okobo
3. Andrew Harrison
4. Stephen Curry
5. Jalen Brunson
6. Dennis Schroder
7. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
8. Jerryd Bayless
9. Kris Dunn
10.Patty Mills

I appreaciate the honesty esp when you stated this doesn't tell the whole story. Of course it doesn't Even other advanced stats including DRPM RANKED HIM 80TH among 104 PGs and yes I know how you hate their ranking right? I kinda knew yours is a little skewed when it indicated how KCP is not as bad as ESPN'S DRPM (YES I know you didn't like it) , 3 (dbpm,DRTG AND ON/OFF STATS) from basketballref and another from cleaningtheglass.com.

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