Pre-Season GM 3: Lakers vs Nets 4:30 AM

[thebigbird]

Yep, same as what Nixon, Scott, Cooper, Jordon, etc did with Magic... Defend, hit the open shot and occasionally trot the ball up the court when the defense was set.

Rondo and Bradly and KCP are going to be fine.

But Rondo doesn't defend at all, and any open shots he hits don't make up for the complete lack of spacing he causes.

He does defend... This has been covered a lot already... His stats against PGs are actually quite respectable.

And again, if he's given wide open shots and makes them at a decent rate, he'll force them to play him closer and thus open up the floor...
But whatever... Fine, start Bradly then... Or KCP... Honestly, who the hell cares... Those guys are the least important players in the starting lineup...

But we've seen that guys don't guard him even though he hits them at a decent rate. He shot 36% from 3 last season, and he was at 42% before the all-star break. Yet we've seen the pictures from preseason of his defender 10+ feet away from him. He's in his 14th year in the NBA. No one respects his shot, and players aren't going to start guarding him closely if he hits a few open shots. They can get the end goal of opening up the floor by just starting someone else.

I would actually argue that he's the most important player in the starting lineup. If he starts then that puts a ceiling on the starting lineup because LeBron/AD won't have the spacing they need to maximize their abilities. We saw last year what happens when LeBron plays without spacing. There's no need to run it back this year when the roster has plenty of capable shooters.

[Kilroy]

But Rondo doesn't defend at all, and any open shots he hits don't make up for the complete lack of spacing he causes.

He does defend... This has been covered a lot already... His stats against PGs are actually quite respectable.

And again, if he's given wide open shots and makes them at a decent rate, he'll force them to play him closer and thus open up the floor...
But whatever... Fine, start Bradly then... Or KCP... Honestly, who the hell cares... Those guys are the least important players in the starting lineup...

But we've seen that guys don't guard him even though he hits them at a decent rate. He shot 36% from 3 last season, and he was at 42% before the all-star break. Yet we've seen the pictures from preseason of his defender 10+ feet away from him. He's in his 14th year in the NBA. No one respects his shot, and players aren't going to start guarding him closely if he hits a few open shots. They can get the end goal of opening up the floor by just starting someone else.

I would actually argue that he's the most important player in the starting lineup. If he starts then that puts a ceiling on the starting lineup because LeBron/AD won't have the spacing they need to maximize their abilities. We saw last year what happens when LeBron plays without spacing. There's no need to run it back this year when the roster has plenty of capable shooters.

This is just such a tempest in a teacup though... You're talking about what... Maybe 7 possessions a game where Rondo is left wide open and dared to take a shot, and he takes what... 5 of them a game? Making maybe 2?

It may be glaring as it's happening if you're looking for it, but it's statistically insignificant at worst. All he needs are a couple games where he goes like 4-6 and they'll stop sagging off him.

You can argue that PG next to LeBron and Davis and McGee and Green is the most important position if you want, but I mean cmon...
That player is going to be lucky to get enough touches to score double digits... Clearly their biggest impact is going to be on Defense covering Green and LeBron on smaller guys.

Guys getting fired up about Rondo's offense are just looking for a reason to justify they're dislike of him... It's really not that serious...

AND, even if he was the biggest liability on the team... NOBODY thinks he's untouchable at starter... He's lucky to have the shot. IF he can't hack it, nobody will even blink if he goes to the bench.

[tamaraw08]

What does a PG do on a team with LeBron? Real question here. We compare assists and TO’s in garbage time in preseason now?! Really?

LeBron will initiate the offense more than not when he’s in the game. He’s pretty good at it too. I’d take him over most PG’s just as a facilitator. This “need” to point to a PG and compare some meaningless statistic that was created in completely different situations is fascinating. The oracles of “Advanced Stats” have spoken and Rondo sucks I guess.

Ever wonder how those Oracles make money?.... hint.... clicks.

We need an oracle to create an advanced stat to see if the advanced stats can predict anything beyond clicks and meaningless debates in on-line forums.

This is why no a few here are very puzzled on why Vogel is insisting to use his next best facilitator NEXT TO LEBRON. They both sit after 8-12 minutes, who then initiates the offense propely?
I think the issue is who plays PG next to Lebron but who is the perfect fit next to him who can defend PGs and at the same time hit open shots to make sure there's adequate spacing to operate.

[Ball so hard]

Read on Twitter

The way defenses can play when Rondo is in the game is such a huge disadvantage for the Lakers.

So he has to make his shots, or he sits? What's the mystery... That goes for every player in the NBA. But by the same token, if he's the best facilitator on the team, shouldn't he get a game or 2 to see if he can hit those shots?
As bad a shooter as he's been, I don't think he's ever been this open before. All he has to do is to make a slightly below average number of those shots to force Defenses to be a little honest on him.

Like others have pointed out, Rondo for his faults is no gunner... He's not prone to shooting low percentage shots.

We got basically 3 real choices... Roll with Rondo and hope he hits more open shots, Roll with Bradly and hope he can tone down the aggression on D and play more smart, or Roll with KCP and hope he doesn't take 3/4s of the season to be effective at anything.
Shut up Caruso fans... He's not that guy yet.
Cook is an unknown right now, so I can't throw him in the mix yet.
So lets give them a chance to figure it out... It's not really that big a deal anyway.

I think there's a huge misconception with regard to why teams leave Rondo open. Contrary to popular opinion, teams aren't leaving him open because he can't shoot, teams simply prefer if Rondo shoots as opposed to setting up AD or another big for a high percentage lob. This is hardly any different from how teams defend Player X who's really good in one area--think about how most teams defend Giannis--but not so good in other areas.

I think the more pertinent question ought to be - do you prefer Rondo attempting a wide open 3 or another guard (Bradley, Caruso, KCP, etc.) attempting a catch and shoot 3?

Let's look at a few things here from last season:

- Caruso's catch and shoot freq is a paltry 16.4%. I'm sure his supporters would argue this frequency would significantly increase if he were to play with the starters...however, i'm not buying this one bit. He's a very reluctant shooter. He did convert at a very good clip (46.4%) though.

- KCP catch and shoot freq is 44.6% and converted 36.7%

- Bradley catch and shoot freq is 29.6% and converted 39.6%

- Rondo catch and shoot freq is 15.5% and converted 32.8%

Rondo's numbers are obviously not good. For the record, i've said many times i'm not a fan of his starting. Caruso is clearly not the answer either... I don't even think this is debatable at this point. Does anybody think Caruso would even double his frequency playing with the starters? I don't. I've been on the KCP should start train for a while now and in light of the above numbers, I now feel better about my prior conviction.

[tamaraw08]

Read on Twitter

The way defenses can play when Rondo is in the game is such a huge disadvantage for the Lakers.

So he has to make his shots, or he sits? What's the mystery... That goes for every player in the NBA. But by the same token, if he's the best facilitator on the team, shouldn't he get a game or 2 to see if he can hit those shots?
As bad a shooter as he's been, I don't think he's ever been this open before. All he has to do is to make a slightly below average number of those shots to force Defenses to be a little honest on him.

Like others have pointed out, Rondo for his faults is no gunner... He's not prone to shooting low percentage shots.

We got basically 3 real choices... Roll with Rondo and hope he hits more open shots, Roll with Bradly and hope he can tone down the aggression on D and play more smart, or Roll with KCP and hope he doesn't take 3/4s of the season to be effective at anything.
Shut up Caruso fans... He's not that guy yet.
Cook is an unknown right now, so I can't throw him in the mix yet.
So lets give them a chance to figure it out... It's not really that big a deal anyway.

I think there's a huge misconception with regard to why teams leave Rondo open. Contrary to popular opinion, teams aren't leaving him open because he can't shoot, teams simply prefer if Rondo shoots as opposed to setting up AD or another big for a high percentage lob. This is hardly any different from how teams defend Player X who's really good in one area--think about how most teams defend Giannis--but not so good in other areas.

I think the more pertinent question ought to be - do you prefer Rondo attempting a wide open 3 or another guard (Bradley, Caruso, KCP, etc.) attempting a catch and shoot 3?

Let's look at a few things here from last season:

- Caruso's catch and shoot freq is a paltry 16.4%. I'm sure his supporters would argue this frequency would significantly increase if he were to play with the starters...however, i'm not buying this one bit. He's a very reluctant shooter. He did convert at a very good clip (46.4%) though.

- KCP catch and shoot freq is 44.6% and converted 36.7%

- Bradley catch and shoot freq is 29.6% and converted 39.6%

- Rondo catch and shoot freq is 15.5% and converted 32.8%

Rondo's numbers are obviously not good. For the record, i've said many times i'm not a fan of his starting. Caruso is clearly not the answer either... I don't even think this is debatable at this point. Does anybody think Caruso would even double his frequency playing with the starters? I don't. I've been on the KCP should start train for a while now and in light of the above numbers, I now feel better about my prior conviction.

About Rondo, it's playing the percentages, you let Rondo with a career 31.5% 3pt shooter (albeit it has come up past 3 seasons) take those shots= less touches for AD and Lebron (both shoots a high %) PLUS, Rondo's defender positions to clog the driving lanes for everyone and at the same time gets inside tract to help rebound the ball.
Regarding Caruso, he didn't have the confidence to take those shots that the first 8 games, he averaged 1.5 3's while taking 37 shots for his last 11 games for an average of 3.36. Some might say, once he started making it at a high %, that its possible that other teams have really tighten their defense. I really want him to have some games where he can play next to starters as a spot up shooter along with Green while Lebron sets up the offense even for 2-3 games (including the final preseason games) and I was there at Staples last night and while I agree that he didn't do great on offense, I felt he did pretty well defending Steph... If it doesn't work, then so be it.
Rondo would be really good directing the bench offense hopefully with 2 shooters and AD IMO.
I have already stated that I have changed my tune a bit that KCP is not a bad defender but I am still concerned about his perimeter shooting.

[Kilroy]

Feels like people are over complicating the hell out of this, just because it’s Rondo... teams leave the weakest shooter open on good teams and dare him to hit shots. This is basic... it happens countless times.
And it stops when the guy starts hitting his shots...

Not sure there’s anything at all left to discuss here... either he does or he doesn’t.

Don’t like horse soup

[Landsberger]

Feels like people are over complicating the hell out of this, just because it’s Rondo... teams leave the weakest shooter open on good teams and dare him to hit shots. This is basic... it happens countless times.
And it stops when the guy starts hitting his shots...

Not sure there’s anything at all left to discuss here... either he does or he doesn’t.

Don’t like horse soup

As this season progresses this discussion will be revealed to be irrelevant IF there is no additional bias other than Rondo's shooting performance. My guess is that there is additional bias that's hidden between the arguments however.

The issue we will have is consistent scoring beyond AD, Bron and Kuz IMHO. Whether or not it's from the 3 point line is also irrelevant IMHO. Consistent scoring from 3 is extremely rare. Getting it in transition and in the paint is a key for us.