Landsberger wrote: Beethoven wrote:
Maybe from realizing that getting infected with that virus is not a death sentence. There has to be some kind of data on the survival rate. There was report that 98% who got infected recovered. Depends on how you process it, some say oh ok, some freak out. Dr from where I work said Various drugs have been tried and claimed success.
Just fyi , two things: this is reaching pandemic proportions, meaning a good 90-100 million will be affected in US alone (if we do not proceed w strict public lockdown measures to control
). Two, the 2% death rate is huge for a pandemic. that will mean 2million will die from it in US alone if this goes at this trend (and this is assuming all 100 million gets adequate medical/health care
). Influenza death rate is only about 1/10 of 1%
From the info I receive, locally, the movie theaters are pretty much empty and the malls (my wife works at a major one) are sort of deserted during the weekdays. And w NBA and other major sports suspending their season, hopefully we are going in the right direction on this
Be careful on the statistics of this. Keep in mind that everyone who dies of an upper respiratory infection will be tested and counted in the mortality rate but only people who get tested and live will be counted in the infected rate. Statistically, when you look at previous outbreaks, there are only about 30% of the infected that are confirmed by tests.
A few people I know in the know on the statistical measuring of this believe the true mortality rate is well below 1% when you account for the sick not being counted in the infected totals.
To compare this in Influenza A which has also been sweeping the nation this flu season which has a .1%ish mortality rate but in those statistics they have validated deaths and assumed infected.
When you overlay the conditions of the people dying along with the level of healthcare access you'll find that the mortality rate for someone otherwise healthy in a truly developed country is going to be about what Influenza A has been here in the US. Maybe a little higher but this 10 times higher stuff will most likely turn out to be much, much higher than what will truly occur here in the US. Even that rate is statistical smoke when you look at the underlying health of the individuals.
To compare.... H1N1 infected 66M confirmed in 2009-10. It is assumed that another 120M had it and were never confirmed. The mortality rate was roughly 2% of the 66M.... not the total assumed 180M
Very good points
I do not know the statistical system/methodology in counting the infection and calculating the mortality rate. Yet, if you suggest that the actual infected no. may be much higher for Coronavirus and the actual mortality rate could be much lower than statistically suggested, Isn't / Wasn't it the same for other virus e.g. flu or H1N1?
That is, to me, you could never know the actual no of infection even you are in the richest country / area. The mortality rate is calculated base on the no. of death over known infected no. for all virus / epidemic. In other words, if this calculated rate is overestimated for coronavirus, the same goes to other virus. The higher mortality rate really mean something !!!!
To my knowledge, the Mainland China changed their standard in confirming whether the patient was infected by coronavirus. At one point, when they could not test all patients, they simply count those with Pneumonitis (i.e. inflammation in lung) as patient infected with coronavirus. Some other place in Asia established a mechanism to screen patients with higher risks for test. For example, if they had been to the Mainland / other area with coronavirus outbreak in the past 14 days and observed with upper respiratory tract infection symptrome, they will be refereed to the hospital and tested. You can see, they are doing more and more to try and identify all people infected with this fatal virus. You may be right about the "error" of the mortality rate. But experience in other place of the world could be seen as a valuable reference for your country and you.
This virus is highly transmissible. Don't underestimate it. Wear a face mask when go out and wash your hands frequently. Do not touch your nose, mouth or even eyes if you haven't washed your hands. This is already the most basic stuff to protect yourself. You may not realize, People in Asia are doing a lot more to protect themselves in the recent months.