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I don't envy Frank Vogel. I've been thinking of this for the past couple days after Talen Horton-Tucker's emergence. It's now come to a point where I think he has to play, but I just have no idea how that's going to work if everyone is healthy. In the regular season, you can get away with playing about 10 guys. In the post season, it's more like 6.5 or 7 guys you trust to play. We saw that in the Finals where we basically only played LeBron, AD, Green, KCP, Caruso, Rondo, and throw Morris/Kuzma in there as a half guy each. In the regular season, we'll certainly have some more flexibility.

Another really tricky factor. We added in 4 guys (Harrell, Schroder, Matthews, Gasol) who are GOING to play big minutes - that's a fact. The other guys who have been with us (Caruso, Kuzma, KCP, Morris) are all going to expect bigger roles. They're Champions and were vital members of a Championship team. I can't see them lessening KCP, Caruso or Kuzma's role. If Vogel and the coaching staff did, I have to imagine that would be a problem in the locker room at some point.

This is my #1 concern about this team. I seriously wonder if we'll be able to keep all these guys happy without it hurting the chemistry that core group established in the Championship season. If COVID, injuries or rest to a player happens, then I think we're fine. But if everyone's healthy, I have a hard time seeing how this is going to work.

So if you're Vogel & the coaching staff: How does your rotation look with a healthy roster?

-----------------------------

I start by playing 9 guys. I know THT has been amazing, but he's just going to have to sit and wait. Injuries will happen, we will rest LeBron and AD, and COVID protocols will become the norm. He'll get some significant minutes that way, and maybe come the deadline if we trade someone away for future assets, he'll become a staple in the rotation. But unless that happens, I just don't see it. Maybe a 6 minute shift here or there, but consistently I don't see it. So here's my 9 guys.

Schroder
KCP
LeBron
AD
Gasol

with Kuzma, Caruso, Wes Matthews, Harrell off the bench.

Rotation:

Schroder [28]/ LeBron [14]/ Caruso [6]
KCP [28]/ Caruso [20]/
LeBron [12]/ Kuzma [20]/Matthews [16]
AD [18]/ Kuzma [12]/ LeBron [8]/ Harrell [10]/
Gasol [20]/ AD [16]/ Harrell [12]/

AD: 34 minutes
LeBron: 34 minutes
Kuzma: 32 minutes
Schroder: 28 minutes
KCP: 28 minutes
Caruso: 26 minutes
Harrell: 22 minutes
Gasol: 20 minutes
Matthews: 16 minutes

If we're playing a big C then I think Marc's minutes will go up and Harrell's will come down. Since that won't be as often, the other match-ups will have Harrell playing up to 26 minutes and Gasol playing 14-16 minutes. So I do think when the regular season ends, we'll see Harrell averaging about 24-25 MPG. And if LeBron or AD sits, he'll get significant minutes.

Kuzma: I think we have to play him major minutes, especially early. I have him at 32 minutes in that rotation, but if LeBron or AD miss, he should play 38-42 minutes. At the end of the first half of the season, if he's averaging 34-36 minutes a game, that will be perfect. We have to figure out what we have in Kuzma and if it doesn't fit like a glove, we have to trade him for additional assets. There's no way we can invest $18+ million into Kuzma a season if he hasn't figured out how to be a major player next to LeBron and AD.

That's 9 guys right there and you can argue that Wes, Harrell, Schroder and Kuzma need more minutes. There's no way we're going to get Morris or THT into that rotation unless something happens which subtracts 1 or 2 of those guys.The benefit? If Alex Caruso or KCP or Matthews misses 3 weeks due to a sprained ankle or something, we won't miss a beat at all. The only positions we really can't afford a lengthy absence from are with LeBron/AD/Harrell. Harrell will be our small ball 5 when AD's not on the court. And after that, it gets into Markieff Morris and Jared Dudley territory real quick.

Thoughts?

Kuzma will see nowhere near 32 mins a game. Are you **** kidding me?

He's not even close to being good enough for that. He's closer to losing minutes to this kid THT than seeing 32 a game when Lebron and Davis play.


I'll tell you this and you can sig me. By the half of the year all this board(sans the notorious ass kissers) will be asking for THT to play more than Kuzma. Because he quite frankly should. But yeah, we'll have to get through that "earning them" nonsense. No problems, he will.

I have this as my minutes distribution in the regular season.

Gasol (14) - Harrell (28) - Davis (6)
Davis (26) - Morris (12) - Kuzma (10)
LeBron (26) - Kuzma (10) - Matthews (6) - THT (6) - Mckinnie (0)
KCP (24) - Matthews (14) - Caruso (6) - THT (4)
Schröder (28) - LeBron (6) - Caruso (14) - Cook (0)

ROballer wrote:Kuzma will see nowhere near 32 mins a game. Are you **** kidding me?

He's not even close to being good enough for that. He's closer to losing minutes to this kid THT than seeing 32 a game when Lebron and Davis play.


I'll tell you this and you can sig me. By the half of the year all this board(sans the notorious ass kissers) will be asking for THT to play more than Kuzma. Becuse he quite frankly should. But yeah, we'll have to get through that "earning them" nonsense. No problems, he will.

See my Sig

Nobody, including FV knows how this rotation is going to work in detail... It's going to have to work itself out in season. There are certain concepts that should be true, but he'd be an idiot to go into the season with a fixed rotation and game plan, with everything we have going on... Short camp, personnel turnover, a need to keep our older guys healthy....

During the season he's going to use AD, LeBron and probably Gasol, just enough to win us enough games to get to the post season. Which based on how things have gone, isn't a whole lot of minutes.
Maybe as little as 24min for LeBron and Marc, and 28 for AD...

I think the Starting lineup is going to be:
Schroder
Mathews
LeBron
AD
Gasol

Marc will probably play the McGee rotation from last season with Trez coming in early... We'll have lineups with AD at the 5 and Trez at the 4 and visa versa:

Caruso
KCP
THT
AD
Trez

Schroder
Caruso
Kuz
Morris
Trez

I figure this season will look a bit like last season with Vogel just throwing lineups out there and seeing what works... Dudes are going to catch all sorts of feelings about his rotations just like we did last season, but it's going to be because he needs to keep LeBron, AD, and Marc healthy, he needs to find solid minutes for THT, and he may need to showcase Kuz...

It's a good problem to have though, and come playoff time, we should be rolling. There will be all sorts of plots unfolding and lots to talk about... But at the end of the day, I don't think we care what position we're in heading into the post season as long as we're healthy and we don't ruin chemistry like the Clips, so I'm not going to get too fired up about standings.

He'll figure it out. That is why he's Vogel and im not. He's getting paid to do this 40+ hours with a whole analytical team churning numbers for him.
That way i can put my focus on enjoying the team

KCP
Kuzma
LeBron
AD
Marc

Dennis
Caruso
Wes
Kieff
Harrell

THt - Mr Next Guy Up

People will miss games with the flu because of fear of covid. People will miss game for injury like AD. People will miss game for rest like Lebron. People will miss games for age like Marc.THT will get time but a smart coach and GM will suppress the value of him and Caruso both.

Cool and Dudley can get mop up duty and wave towels

kblo247 wrote:KCP
Kuzma
LeBron
AD
Marc

Dennis
Caruso
Wes
Kieff
Harrell

THt - Mr Next Guy Up

People will miss games with the flu because of fear of covid. People will miss game for injury like AD. People will miss game for rest like Lebron. People will miss games for age like Marc.THT will get time but a smart coach and GM will suppress the value of him and Caruso both.

Cool and Dudley can get mop up duty and wave towels

That's a bit cold hearted. They both deserve and should be paid exactly their true value. If another values them higher than LAL good for them. LAL has the means to match if they choose.

^ right. That's not being smart but being cold hearted.

I think the Kuz contract for one reduces the pressure to play him extra minutes in his contract year cos of the impending decision. I think he can earn his minutes over Caruso, Wes, THT, KCP on merit now.. which is gonna be sooo hard.

DNP-Old wrote:

kblo247 wrote:KCP
Kuzma
LeBron
AD
Marc

Dennis
Caruso
Wes
Kieff
Harrell

THt - Mr Next Guy Up

People will miss games with the flu because of fear of covid. People will miss game for injury like AD. People will miss game for rest like Lebron. People will miss games for age like Marc.THT will get time but a smart coach and GM will suppress the value of him and Caruso both.

Cool and Dudley can get mop up duty and wave towels

That's a bit cold hearted. They both deserve and should be paid exactly their true value. If another values them higher than LAL good for them. LAL has the means to match if they choose.

Cold but it’s business. They took care of the most pressing matters first. The first was extending Kuz so he didn’t go to RFA and find an offer sheet they couldn’t handle. Kuz could have easily pulled a Randle and asked to be let go because of his role being jerked around. Farmar had did it before him too asked to be me restricted because he wanted to be a starter. Or worse he could have found a team with cap room to get a big offer sheet. But here Kuz is yet again wanting to stay a laker and win

The next is coming up with a number for Caruso. Because he was a 2 way player that became a regular player they can’t extend him like they did kuz. So next question goes into his value. Caruso earned more than Kuzma did last year for instance but he didn’t play more than Kyle and in the bubble he wasn’t more crucial than Rondo. Realistically if you wrote in a deal for him it would be the money Bradley made right around 5 mil per.

Then you get to THT who has the Gilbert Arenas rule over his head to deal with.

The fact is they want to win games but they also aren’t going to pull a Cleveland and let JR, Tristan, Delly, and all out price them

Beethoven wrote:He'll figure it out. That is why he's Vogel and im not. He's getting paid to do this 40+ hours with a whole analytical team churning numbers for him.
That way i can put my focus on enjoying the team

Good point. He was not hired to please players and give in to their individual agendas. Who ever is the hardest worker and most focused in practice will get the minutes. Match ups based on their analysis will be a consideration like who will defend best against certain players.

I think we will start with;
Matthews
KCP
Lebron
AD
Gasol

Then the core bench will be Schroder, Caruso, Kuzma and Harrell. Occasionally Kieff and THT will see some minutes. Guys like Cook, Dudley, McKinnie or Kostas will only play in blow-outs or in case of an emergency.

I expect the role of the newcomers be something like this:
-Matthews: He will take Green's role with the following exceptions: he will guard the smaller guard and he will see somewhat less minutes than Green last year. (Like around 20-22)
-Gasol: He will be guarding (along with AD) the bigger and slower centers who have some back to the basket game. Against these he can scratch the 25-30 mins per game figure, but against smaller, more agile C's with a faceup game, he will not go over 10 mins (or will sit the game out completely).
-Harrell: He will be the primary finisher for Lebron when AD sits. He takes the smaller Cs and some PFs (along w/ AD) as defensive assignments. He can log anywhere between 20 and 30 mins per game depending on how much he contributes on D and how the matchup looks like.
-Schroder: He will take playoff Rondos role as the primary ball handler when Lebron sits, and also the lead scoring guard. I guess he will log Lou-like minutes.
-THT - though not a newcomer: He will not start the season w/ getting granted minutes, but he will be a threat to any guard who doesn't deliver.

This is not realcoach, this is realgm, I get you the players you figure out the rotations

My rotations remain the same since beginning of season, see sig below for what I consider 1st/2nd/3rd string etc.

Reasoning: We need Schröder on the floor when LBJ is not on the floor. We do not need Schröder when LBJ is on the floor. Schröder’s perimeter defense is too porous for Marc, it better fits Harrell who has quicker feet for charges. Marc allows LBJ’s on-court minutes to be easier.

That’s why I hope he’ll be starting Caruso and Gasol instead of Schröder and Harrell. A five man unit of AC, KCP, LBJ, AD, MG is pretty much enough defensively and offensively to win the matchup game against any starters.

A second unit of Schröder, Matthews, Kuzma, Morris, Harrell is likely to kick every other second unit’s ass every single night.


Edit: our minutes distribution so far:
AD33, LBJ32, SCHR31, KUZ26, HARR24, KCP24, MTHWS21, GAS19, THT15, MMOR15, AC14 (quarantine)