TylersLakers wrote:TheHartBreakKid wrote:Hard to see AD starting at the 5. I know he's at his best at the 5, and I agree that he should be playing more 5, even in the regular season. We don't have the luxury of playing too many minutes with a traditional 5 with our spacing concerns. That said, I think AD should and will start at the 4 during the regular season.
- Most nba teams still have a traditional 5 in their starting lineups. We could significantly lower AD's inside bumps and bruises if we match up with a traditional five (whether Gasol or Dwight) in the first 6 minutes of the 1st and 3rd. The NBA has gone small and AD's ability to go small is one our biggest advantages, but we still have "traditional 5s" who will start on their respective teams despite playing only 20-24 minutes overall, and I think it's in our best advantage to play our traditional 5s in those minutes.
Regarding THT, I would love to see him really make the 2 spot his own as a starter. I'm not sure if he's ready yet, especially as an off ball player though. Either way I want to see him have a huge role...first guard off the bench for sure. Here is how I would do it based on our current roster:
10 man rotation
Starters:
Westbrook (32) Nunn (16)
Bazemore or Ellingon (14) Monk (20) /THT (6) Nunn(8)
Lebron (16)/ THT (22)/ Bazemore or Ariza (10)
AD (12)/ Lebron (16)/ Melo (20)
Gasol (12)/ Dwight (15)/ AD (21)
Notes:
- As you could see, I only expect 2 of Bazemore, ellington & Ariza to be in the healthy 10 man rotation. Either Bazemore starting at the 2 with Ariza playing spot minutes at the 3, or Ellington starting at the 2 and Bazemore playing spot minutes at the 3. That said, I could easily see Monk start if he buys into his 3 & D role, vs his current traditional role which is more of a off the bench microwave scorer.
- Gasol only plays the first 6 minutes of the 1st and the 3rd. Games should have a slower pace to start and teams should be more likely to be playing a traditional 5 during those minutes.
- AD shifts to the 5 at the 6 minute mark (1st and 3rd) and Lebron shifts to 4 with THT coming in at the 3. Westbrook probably goes to the bench with Nunn coming in
- Westbrook returns at the 3 minute mark. Lebron goes out for Melo. Ad stays in
- Dwight starts the second quarter for AD with Lebron back in etc
Numbers I'm sure won't work out perfectly in my scenario, and things will always differ game to game, not to mention injuries, but that's the gist of what I would like to see.
Gist of it being we minimize Lebron and Westbrook's time on the court together. We pair Westbrook with AD when Lebron's out of the game. We minimize time when THT is on the court with both Lebron and westbrook. We let Dwight do the thing he did so well which was beat up on backup centers. We minimize AD's time on the court with starting centers. We space the floor.
If we could get it right, AD or Lebron should be on the court the entire game.
As for the closing lineup, we obviously will have the big three in there with RW playing point and AD playing 5. I wouldn't expect THT to close too many games. As for the other 2 players, I could see any combination of Melo/Dunn/Monk/ Bazemore (or ellington)/ Bazemore (or ariza) based on matchups, performance etc.
What we do need now though, is another capable big body ( a Damian Jones type) who could play the 5 inthe likely event of a AD/Gasol/Dwight injury. That player wouldn't touch the rotation if all three are healthy, and may not touch the rotation if 2/3 are healthy. That and another veteran point guard who again wouldn't play barring injuries.
With our depth in the wings, I expect us to have more than enough capable bodies if we lose a wing to injury. Even a Lebron injury could be covered temporarily with minutes from Ariza at the 4/ AD getting more minutes at the 4. A Westbrook injury or a big injury however should be accounted for with our remaining roster spots.
I would try to stay away from a 10 man rotation in the regular season. 9 guys is perfect. However, if it is 10 guys.. the 10th guy better be a two-shift player (12-16 MPG) which I could see Gasol being.
I just realized my math was wrong and I went with an 11 man rotation....
We could have a 9 man rotation with either Monk or Dunn getting more minutes, and I expect that to happen by the end of the season, but I don't see us starting with a 9 man rotation. As it stands though, we really too many guys that deserve some but low minutes, and not enough guys who should be guaranteed 30 plus minutes.
Due to age/injuries, I would want Lebron/AD and RW to stay in the lower 30s. After those three, I'm not sure if any one guy deserves 30 plus minutes. THT is the wild card, but I don't see him being there yet when you factor in fit. Dwight, Gasol, Melo, Bazemore, Ariza, and Ellington should not be getting more than 20 minutes even in the best case scenario, if they are in the rotation.
Dunn and Monk have the potential to play more, but they need to earn it imo.
Here is my ideal 9 man healthy playoff rotation assuming we have the same roster. We would need to see a lot of improvement from THT and for Dunn and Monk to thrive in their roles in order for this to work:
RW (34)/ Dunn (14)
Monk (24)/ THT (12)/ Dunn (12)
Lebron (16)/ THT (16)/ Bazemore (16) (or Ariza or Ellington depending on who earns this spot)
AD (10)/ Lebron (18)/ Melo (20) (or Ariza if Melo is acting up)
Dwight (22) / AD (26)
I agree that by playoff time, either Gasol or Dwight should be cut out of the rotation completely, and realistically only 2 of Melo/Ariza/Bazemore/Ellington should be within the rotation, barring injuries.
I just think to start Melo will have a guaranteed role simply due to who he is. And Dwight and Marc will split the non center AD minutes. Considering load management to our big three on top of that, and question marks regarding how well Monk will fit in, I think that 11 man rotation is reasonable to start off the season. Couldn't agree more though that it needs to be cut down to 9 come playoff time, and hopefully we have made some trades by then but we don't have too many tradable pieces other than Dunn/THT/ and maybe Gasol as a contract filler.