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Ariza & Nunn our saviors

Posted: Wed Dec 22, 2021 5:52 pm
by Ball so hard
I've seen many posts suggesting these two will dramatically impact our team in a positive way. I was always skeptical based on the eye test. I've had a bit of time to dig through the 3-year and 5-year RAMP datasets. The data suggest these two should have little to no positive impact on winning.

5-year dataset:
Ariza
RAMP - (-.46)
RAMP_Def - (-0.07)

For context only Rondo and Melo have a worse net 5-year RAMP number on roster. Ariza's defensive number is in line with Ellington.

3-year dataset:
Nunn
RAMP - (-1.07)
RAMP_Def - (-1.47)

3-year dataset for Nunn might be a bit skewed since he has yet to play this season. The stat covers seasons 19-22.

Other interesting finding - AD still ranks 1st on our team in RAMP_Def using 5-year datasets. However, both offensive and defensive numbers fell off a cliff when we look at 3-year datasets covering the 19-22 period. Given he was injured last year and is injured again this year, this drop in production is hardly surprising.

5-year dataset:
AD
RAMP - 2.73
RAMP_Def - 1.85

3-year dataset:
AD
RAMP - .37
RAMP_Def - .23

Other notable mention - Westbrook— for all the flak he gets here—has been pretty solid on defense when looking at either 5 or 3-year datasets. Offensively he's taken a hit when looking at recent years.

Edit: Melo's RAMP is by far the worst at -.78 and -1.98 RAMP and RAMP_Def, respectively.

Re: Ariza & Nunn our saviors

Posted: Wed Dec 22, 2021 9:39 pm
by Landsberger
Wow.... this redefines reaching.

Not that they aren't better than the current crop of boarder line NBA talent we have behind the stars but no one off the bench can erase Westbrook and Melo.

Re: Ariza & Nunn our saviors

Posted: Wed Dec 22, 2021 11:00 pm
by TylersLakers
I think they'll help and they'll be extremely beneficial - provided everything else is right: Coaching, winning mindset, other health (AD, LeBron, etc).

Re: Ariza & Nunn our saviors

Posted: Wed Dec 22, 2021 11:15 pm
by Pythagoras
Ball so hard wrote:I've seen many posts suggesting these two will dramatically impact our team in a positive way. I was always skeptical based on the eye test. I've had a bit of time to dig through the 3-year and 5-year RAMP datasets. The data suggest these two should have little to no positive impact on winning.

5-year dataset:
Ariza
RAMP - (-.46)
RAMP_Def - (-0.07)

For context only Rondo and Melo have a worse net 5-year RAMP number on roster. Ariza's defensive number is in line with Ellington.

3-year dataset:
Nunn
RAMP - (-1.07)
RAMP_Def - (-1.47)

3-year dataset for Nunn might be a bit skewed since he has yet to play this season. The stat covers seasons 19-22.

Other interesting finding - AD still ranks 1st on our team in RAMP_Def using 5-year datasets. However, both offensive and defensive numbers fell off a cliff when we look at 3-year datasets covering the 19-22 period. Given he was injured last year and is injured again this year, this drop in production is hardly surprising.

5-year dataset:
AD
RAMP - 2.73
RAMP_Def - 1.85

3-year dataset:
AD
RAMP - .37
RAMP_Def - .23

Other notable mention - Westbrook— for all the flak he gets here—has been pretty solid on defense when looking at either 5 or 3-year datasets. Offensively he's taken a hit when looking at recent years.

Edit: Melo's RAMP is by far the worst at -.78 and -1.98 RAMP and RAMP_Def, respectively.


It’s not just about the players themselves, but who they’ll replace. If the team stops being ridiculous and cuts DJ and drops Bradley completely out of the rotation outside of emergency minutes, and then you add those two to the lineup rotations… It’ll help quite a bit. It won’t fix ALL the problems, but it will definitely help.

Re: Ariza & Nunn our saviors

Posted: Wed Dec 22, 2021 11:23 pm
by BEazy
I've been guilty of making fun of these people that held out hope that Ariza and Nunn would turn this team around, but I also feel like under the right situation they are very valuable role players.

That being said, this isn't the right situation and Nunn will get traded along with THT in order to remove some of the BS the front office pulled this offseason.

In a perfect world, WestCrap nets us some potential help in a trade while keeping THT and Nunn for offseason assets. Doubt it though.

Re: Ariza & Nunn our saviors

Posted: Thu Dec 23, 2021 1:56 am
by Ball so hard
TylersLakers wrote:I think they'll help and they'll be extremely beneficial - provided everything else is right: Coaching, winning mindset, other health (AD, LeBron, etc).


That’s a huge qualifier… provided everything else is right. Sure it’ll help if they take most of Melo’s minutes. It’ll also help if they took some of THT’s minutes. In the grand scheme of things it’s unlikely they’ll move the needle much. We’re talking about two below average players… one who’s old and the other who may have some untapped potential.

Re: Ariza & Nunn our saviors

Posted: Thu Dec 23, 2021 2:19 am
by Ball so hard
Pythagoras wrote:
It’s not just about the players themselves, but who they’ll replace. If the team stops being ridiculous and cuts DJ and drops Bradley completely out of the rotation outside of emergency minutes, and then you add those two to the lineup rotations… It’ll help quite a bit. It won’t fix ALL the problems, but it will definitely help.


Cutting DJ alone would help, so I don’t disagree here. Bradley is such a blah player. He’s decent on defense and probably slightly below average on offense… essentially you have a net zero impact player. In theory this should be fairly easy to replace. Impact wise Nunn should be a minor upgrade at best. Nunn is obviously the better offensive player; defensively there’s a sizable gap between the two.

Re: Ariza & Nunn our saviors

Posted: Thu Dec 23, 2021 8:06 am
by SlimShady83
Is Nunn better than Monk?

LOL never thought I'd say that in same sentence

Re: Ariza & Nunn our saviors

Posted: Thu Dec 23, 2021 12:47 pm
by stan francisco
SlimShady83 wrote:Is Nunn better than Monk?

LOL never thought I'd say that in same sentence


Lol. Yes, that’d be my choice every single time.

When it comes to the basketball players, same choice. Monk can get streaky, Nunn is reliable on defense. I’d say when Nunn returns he beats the others for minutes. Defense is rewarded by frank.

Re: Ariza & Nunn our saviors

Posted: Thu Dec 23, 2021 10:33 pm
by euphorbus
Now Ariza is in health and safety protocols. Pretty soon, the whole team will have run through the mill trace.

Re: Ariza & Nunn our saviors

Posted: Fri Dec 24, 2021 8:17 pm
by Ball so hard
euphorbus wrote:Now Ariza is in health and safety protocols. Pretty soon, the whole team will have run through the mill trace.


The silver lining is our team will have reached herd immunity before then.

Re: Ariza & Nunn our saviors

Posted: Thu Jan 27, 2022 7:57 pm
by Ball so hard
Haven't had time to look into any stats... Ariza picked up his first DNP? I didn't think he'd be this bad. Thought he looked awful in the games he did play. Some were hoping for a Hail Mary I suppose.