Using Westbrook lineups to determine rotation

[zimpy27]

I thought.the logical way of determining the Lakers rotation might be to work out the best lineups for Westbrook and work around that.

Westbrooks ranking as a teammate to other rotation players in 2-man lineups this season:
Howard: 3rd
Bradley: 5th
LeBron: 7th
Melo: 7th
THT: 8th
Monk: 8th
Reaves: 9th
Johnson: 9th
Davis: 9th

Best lineup without LeBron+Davis: Bradley, Monk, Westbrook, Melo, Howard
Best lineup with LeBron: Bradley, Westbrook, Reaves, LeBron, Melo
Best lineup with Davis: Westbrook, Ellington, THT, Melo, Davis
Best lineup with LeBron+Davis: Bradley, Monk, Westbrook, LeBron, Davis

I think Davis needs to play the least possible minutes with Westbrook. If Davis is playing 38mpg in the playoffs then Westbrook at 29mpg should be playing 19mpg together. LeBron should play with Davis's other 19mpg for playmaking.
I think Bradley should play all minutes with Westbrook but that will change when Nunn fills the role. I think Bradley/Nunn fulfil a similar role so I'm going to call them "Brunn", similarly Ariza and Johnson fill a similar role and I'm going to call them "Johriza".

Westbrook rotation minute lineups
5mpg: Brunn, Monk, Westbrook, Melo, Howard
5mpg: Brunn, Westbrook, THT, LeBron, Howard
5mpg: Westbrook, Ellington, THT, Melo, Davis
14mpg: Brunn, Monk, Westbrook, LeBron, Davis

Non-Westbrook rotation minute lineups
15mpg: Brunn, Reaves, Johriza, LeBron, Davis
4mpg: Reaves, Monk, THT, LeBron, Davis


Rotation with Westbrook starting on bench
Q1 12 to 7min - Brunn, Reaves, Johriza, LeBron, Davis
Q1 7 to 2min - Brunn, Westbrook, THT, LeBron, Howard
Q1 2min to Q1 end - Reaves, Monk, THT, LeBron, Davis
Q2 12 to 5min - Brunn, Monk, Westbrook, LeBron, Davis
Q2 5min to Q2 end - Westbrook, Ellington, THT, Melo, Davis
Q3 12 to 7min - Brunn, Reaves, Johriza, LeBron, Davis
Q3 7 to 2min - Brunn, Monk, Westbrook, Melo, Howard
Q3 2min to Q3 end - Reaves, Monk, THT, LeBron, Davis
Q4 12 to 5min - Brunn, Monk, Westbrook, LeBron, Davis
Q4 5min to game end - Brunn, Reaves, Johriza, LeBron, Davis


Rotation with Westbrook starting
Q1 12 to 5min - Brunn, Monk, Westbrook, LeBron, Davis
Q1 5min to Q1 end - Brunn, Westbrook, THT, LeBron, Howard
Q2 12 to 7min - Brunn, Reaves, Johriza, LeBron, Davis
Q2 7min to 5min - Reaves, Monk, THT, LeBron, Davis
Q2 5min to Q2 end - Westbrook, Ellington, THT, Melo, Davis
Q3 12 to 5min - Brunn, Monk, Westbrook, LeBron, Davis
Q3 5min to Q3 end- Brunn, Monk, Westbrook, Melo, Howard
Q4 12 to 7min - Brunn, Reaves, Johriza, LeBron, Davis
Q4 7min to 5min - Reaves, Monk, THT, LeBron, Davis
Q4 5min to Q4 end - Brunn, Reaves, Johriza, LeBron, Davis


Minutes per game
38-39 mpg: LeBron, Davis, Brunn (Nunn/Bradley)
29 mpg: Westbrook
23 mpg: Monk
19 mpg: Reaves
14-15mpg: THT, Johriza (Johnson/Ariza)
10 mpg: Howard, Melo


I think either rotation is good but I prefer Westbrook starting on the bench. I think a starting lineup of Brunn, Reaves, Johriza, LeBron, Davis is a strong defensive one to set the tone. This lineup has been a strong positive so far

Do you agree with this concept?

[danfantastk32]

I feel bad saying what I am about to say, as you've clearly put a ton of time into this. It's well presented, btw.

But I hope we just sit Westbrook. Or give him scraps....like 12ish mpg. It's what his defense deserves.

[zimpy27]

I feel bad saying what I am about to say, as you've clearly put a ton of time into this. It's well presented, btw.

But I hope we just sit Westbrook. Or give him scraps....like 12ish mpg. It's what his defense deserves.

This thought crossed my mind. I think this is unlikely though given his pay and standing. I have cut his minutes down to under 30 and he's not playing the final 5 minutes. That's probably the most that can be done.

If Westbrook was to reduce minutes then I'd simply elevate THTs minutes to take over them.

[Slava]

I’d be curious to see how he does if the ball is completely taken out of his hands and he’s asked to set screens and make plays on the short roll when playing alongside Lebron.

Then let him run the 2nd unit with Dwight and three floor spacers like Melo, Monk and Ariza. We’ll lose the defensive matchup but if that line up can at least get a +3 against opposite beach units, that’s good enough.

[SlimShady83]

Cool thread, but do you really think Vogel has the brain capacity to do this? NOPE no chance LOL - Vogels rotations and timings of putting players in and out of games are laughable

[stan francisco]

I’d be curious to see how he does if the ball is completely taken out of his hands and he’s asked to set screens and make plays on the short roll when playing alongside Lebron.

Then let him run the 2nd unit with Dwight and three floor spacers like Melo, Monk and Ariza. We’ll lose the defensive matchup but if that line up can at least get a +3 against opposite beach units, that’s good enough.

This. I’d start him at the three with strict orders on offense to screen, post up and spread the floor by occupying the corner three as a decoy. Pass out of the post unless you get a layup. Nothing else. Second unit PG is ideal for him if his ego can handle it.

Defensively, clockwork orange film sessions 24/7 with Frank’s team defense plan, until he gets it.

If his defense improves and he is disciplined on offense, 24 mpg max if you ask me. His defense is incoherent / non existent. He is and will always not be a good fit on a LeBron team on offense. Adding Westbrook is a losing idea and that’s not going to change unless Westbrook changes his defense and offense.

It’s February.

Hoping we get Dragic so somebody can outplay him for the minutes until Nunn is back.

[zimpy27]

I’d be curious to see how he does if the ball is completely taken out of his hands and he’s asked to set screens and make plays on the short roll when playing alongside Lebron.

Then let him run the 2nd unit with Dwight and three floor spacers like Melo, Monk and Ariza. We’ll lose the defensive matchup but if that line up can at least get a +3 against opposite beach units, that’s good enough.

Yeah I feel that happened yesterday a bit. I think that's what needs to happen more and more. He was used really well yesterday.

[zimpy27]

I’d be curious to see how he does if the ball is completely taken out of his hands and he’s asked to set screens and make plays on the short roll when playing alongside Lebron.

Then let him run the 2nd unit with Dwight and three floor spacers like Melo, Monk and Ariza. We’ll lose the defensive matchup but if that line up can at least get a +3 against opposite beach units, that’s good enough.

This. I’d start him at the three with strict orders on offense to screen, post up and spread the floor by occupying the corner three as a decoy. Pass out of the post unless you get a layup. Nothing else. Second unit PG is ideal for him if his ego can handle it.

Defensively, clockwork orange film sessions 24/7 with Frank’s team defense plan, until he gets it.

If his defense improves and he is disciplined on offense, 24 mpg max if you ask me. His defense is incoherent / non existent. He is and will always not be a good fit on a LeBron team on offense. Adding Westbrook is a losing idea and that’s not going to change unless Westbrook changes his defense and offense.

It’s February.

Hoping we get Dragic so somebody can outplay him for the minutes until Nunn is back.

Yeah if Russ starts then he probably needs to be used as a 3 or a 2 depending on who Monk guards. Need to put Monk on a guy that fits him and Westbrook on the other guy.

Yeah he should be able to handle being 2nd unit PG, Melo and Dwight are HoF players too and they are on the bench.

Dragic is a worse defender than Westbrook, I don't like his fit.

[tamaraw08]

Playing next to 3 & D players like KCP, Jerami Grant would have been great but they have just have shooters with no good D like Monk and Melo or defenders with no 3 like Johnson. IMO, he should play against opposing team’s reserves to hide his deficiencies. Start then pull him out after 5 mins.
He’s at his best when attacking the basket then setting up shooters, think last play to set up Reaves vs Dallas...Ellington is shooting 39% from 3 but Vogel would sink and swim with his favorite defenders. Russ can set picks but won’t matter if he’s screening for non creators like Stanley or Austin. BTW,is the AD/Russ ScreenRoll really ineffective? It worked vs the Clips.

[Landsberger]

.... so... ranking lineups just for the Lakers and not overlaying game situations is really not much of an evaluation. Only half the players on the floor and no indication of the value vs the actual reality of the game situation.

At the 50K foot level.... Westbrook is a disaster over the 54 games he's played. He's never bettered a talented team he's been on before this so it's not like it's a unique situation for him. It's pretty much normal.

When he scores 20 or more we're 12-13

When he gets 10 or more boards we are 1 game over .500....

When he shoots OVER 50% we are 9-12.....

When he shoots OVER 40% from 3 we are 5-15...

When he has LESS than 3 turnovers we are 3 and 10. So, everyone thinks the turnovers are killing us.... when he has 3 or less we are 3 and 10.

I guess one can say that he needs to play with Reaves and Bradley more but I can see no verification that that means squat overall.

There is no stat to measure his glaring lack of BBIQ and none to show that he's learned nothing in his entire career. He makes the same dumb mistakes today he did in his rookie year..... just a step slower.

[Kilroy]

.... so... ranking lineups just for the Lakers and not overlaying game situations is really not much of an evaluation. Only half the players on the floor and no indication of the value vs the actual reality of the game situation.

At the 50K foot level.... Westbrook is a disaster over the 54 games he's played. He's never bettered a talented team he's been on before this so it's not like it's a unique situation for him. It's pretty much normal.

When he scores 20 or more we're 12-13

When he gets 10 or more boards we are 1 game over .500....

When he shoots OVER 50% we are 9-12.....

When he shoots OVER 40% from 3 we are 5-15...

When he has LESS than 3 turnovers we are 3 and 10. So, everyone thinks the turnovers are killing us.... when he has 3 or less we are 3 and 10.

I guess one can say that he needs to play with Reaves and Bradley more but I can see no verification that that means squat overall.

There is no stat to measure his glaring lack of BBIQ and none to show that he's learned nothing in his entire career. He makes the same dumb mistakes today he did in his rookie year..... just a step slower.

So I thought maybe on the games he had 3 turnovers, he had a lot more assists... I was wrong... You can remove 2 of the losses if you filter for 3 or more assists... But that's still 3 and 8...

All in all, as a passing PG, he doesn't seem to contribute much to the W/L...

The sweet-spot for him seems to be between 30 and 35 MPG... We're 13 and 9 when he does... We're 11 and 14 when he gets more than 35min... and we're 2 and 7 when he gets less than 30 mins...

When he gets 8 or more rebounds we're 11 and 7...

I know there are a crap load of variables... But just based on the individual stats, I'd say Westbrook shooting 3s, whether he makes them or not, is not a good play for us... He's much more valuable focusing on scoring inside, rebounding and defense... And based on the numbers, give him 30 to 35 mpg... No real data on whether he starts or not...

Which is all weird because of the on-off data, which says he's pretty much a net negative on the court aside from rebounds blocks and steals... We're better offensively when he's not playing, and the other team is way better offensively, when he is playing...

All of which seems to kinda make the case for addition by subtraction, honestly...

[zimpy27]

.... so... ranking lineups just for the Lakers and not overlaying game situations is really not much of an evaluation. Only half the players on the floor and no indication of the value vs the actual reality of the game situation.

At the 50K foot level.... Westbrook is a disaster over the 54 games he's played. He's never bettered a talented team he's been on before this so it's not like it's a unique situation for him. It's pretty much normal.

When he scores 20 or more we're 12-13

When he gets 10 or more boards we are 1 game over .500....

When he shoots OVER 50% we are 9-12.....

When he shoots OVER 40% from 3 we are 5-15...

When he has LESS than 3 turnovers we are 3 and 10. So, everyone thinks the turnovers are killing us.... when he has 3 or less we are 3 and 10.

I guess one can say that he needs to play with Reaves and Bradley more but I can see no verification that that means squat overall.

There is no stat to measure his glaring lack of BBIQ and none to show that he's learned nothing in his entire career. He makes the same dumb mistakes today he did in his rookie year..... just a step slower.

It's the data we have, the 2 and 3-man lineups have a decent sample though. We are talking 500 mins or more.

I think we all know he isn't great, just trying to make the best of the situation by working out lineups that may work for him. If I was the coach I'd try these lineups more and test the validity of their value.

I can't get the data required to do bootstrapping of smaller sample size but it would be valuable.

[stan francisco]

Iso attacks around the rim, offensive rebounding, passing out of the post, bull rushing the break. These are all things Westbrook does better than most of his team mates on offense.

Unfortunately, much else if what he does well, LBJ does it better. There’s no shame in that, only adjustments to make, a smaller roll to fill.

Defensively, he gets lost a lot.

[Landsberger]

.... so... ranking lineups just for the Lakers and not overlaying game situations is really not much of an evaluation. Only half the players on the floor and no indication of the value vs the actual reality of the game situation.

At the 50K foot level.... Westbrook is a disaster over the 54 games he's played. He's never bettered a talented team he's been on before this so it's not like it's a unique situation for him. It's pretty much normal.

When he scores 20 or more we're 12-13

When he gets 10 or more boards we are 1 game over .500....

When he shoots OVER 50% we are 9-12.....

When he shoots OVER 40% from 3 we are 5-15...

When he has LESS than 3 turnovers we are 3 and 10. So, everyone thinks the turnovers are killing us.... when he has 3 or less we are 3 and 10.

I guess one can say that he needs to play with Reaves and Bradley more but I can see no verification that that means squat overall.

There is no stat to measure his glaring lack of BBIQ and none to show that he's learned nothing in his entire career. He makes the same dumb mistakes today he did in his rookie year..... just a step slower.

It's the data we have, the 2 and 3-man lineups have a decent sample though. We are talking 500 mins or more.

I think we all know he isn't great, just trying to make the best of the situation by working out lineups that may work for him. If I was the coach I'd try these lineups more and test the validity of their value.

I can't get the data required to do bootstrapping of smaller sample size but it would be valuable.

The number of variables and the data available make it impossible to do a on/off court evaluation on a player by player basis. Individual and team matchups overlaid with game situation metrics and on and on are needed to get a trend going.

I'm in the data analytics industry and a few friends and I several years ago got access to some data sets of pro sports and did a variable map and tried to find a meaningful query path to usable data. It's not there.

Most of what passes as advanced stats are intended to increase clicks and support the "fantasy industry"other than some individual metrics which are marginally useful IMHO. When you base them on flawed metrics (individual assists, rebounds, steal, blocks etc.) you get flawed results.

[zimpy27]

.... so... ranking lineups just for the Lakers and not overlaying game situations is really not much of an evaluation. Only half the players on the floor and no indication of the value vs the actual reality of the game situation.

At the 50K foot level.... Westbrook is a disaster over the 54 games he's played. He's never bettered a talented team he's been on before this so it's not like it's a unique situation for him. It's pretty much normal.

When he scores 20 or more we're 12-13

When he gets 10 or more boards we are 1 game over .500....

When he shoots OVER 50% we are 9-12.....

When he shoots OVER 40% from 3 we are 5-15...

When he has LESS than 3 turnovers we are 3 and 10. So, everyone thinks the turnovers are killing us.... when he has 3 or less we are 3 and 10.

I guess one can say that he needs to play with Reaves and Bradley more but I can see no verification that that means squat overall.

There is no stat to measure his glaring lack of BBIQ and none to show that he's learned nothing in his entire career. He makes the same dumb mistakes today he did in his rookie year..... just a step slower.

It's the data we have, the 2 and 3-man lineups have a decent sample though. We are talking 500 mins or more.

I think we all know he isn't great, just trying to make the best of the situation by working out lineups that may work for him. If I was the coach I'd try these lineups more and test the validity of their value.

I can't get the data required to do bootstrapping of smaller sample size but it would be valuable.

The number of variables and the data available make it impossible to do a on/off court evaluation on a player by player basis. Individual and team matchups overlaid with game situation metrics and on and on are needed to get a trend going.

I'm in the data analytics industry and a few friends and I several years ago got access to some data sets of pro sports and did a variable map and tried to find a meaningful query path to usable data. It's not there.

Most of what passes as advanced stats are intended to increase clicks and support the "fantasy industry"other than some individual metrics which are marginally useful IMHO. When you base them on flawed metrics (individual assists, rebounds, steal, blocks etc.) you get flawed results.

That's interesting, was it raw player tracking data? NBA.com have pulled out a lot stats from in game examples.

[Landsberger]

It's the data we have, the 2 and 3-man lineups have a decent sample though. We are talking 500 mins or more.

I think we all know he isn't great, just trying to make the best of the situation by working out lineups that may work for him. If I was the coach I'd try these lineups more and test the validity of their value.

I can't get the data required to do bootstrapping of smaller sample size but it would be valuable.

The number of variables and the data available make it impossible to do a on/off court evaluation on a player by player basis. Individual and team matchups overlaid with game situation metrics and on and on are needed to get a trend going.

I'm in the data analytics industry and a few friends and I several years ago got access to some data sets of pro sports and did a variable map and tried to find a meaningful query path to usable data. It's not there.

Most of what passes as advanced stats are intended to increase clicks and support the "fantasy industry"other than some individual metrics which are marginally useful IMHO. When you base them on flawed metrics (individual assists, rebounds, steal, blocks etc.) you get flawed results.

That's interesting, was it raw player tracking data? NBA.com have pulled out a lot stats from in game examples.

Not sure the origin but the compiled data sets we had access to were proprietary and not only the NBA. NBA.com contracts the bulk of their data architecture as does ESPN etc.

[Landsberger]

But just based on the individual stats, I'd say Westbrook shooting 3s, whether he makes them or not, is not a good play for us... He's much more valuable focusing on scoring inside

This holds true for 95% of the players in the NBA. I've pointed this out a few times. Shooting 35% shots that count 1 more point vs 70% shots (paint/at the basket) for 2 points is a poor game plan. This is especially true for players who can get to the hoop and finish and big men. Fouls, and-ones and the gaps a pressure offense creates get's higher percentage opportunities for others. Situational shooting % is probably the best metric in the game. The 2 vs 3 points per shot doesn't even out for most players within a reasonable 3 point shooting %. Most have to shoot well over 40% to offset what they can do elsewhere. Not to say the 3 point shot isn't important... it is in a few ways.

What you said about Westbrook above is a perfect example. My guess is, if the data existed, we'd see what I like to call "true assists" come from him penetrating. I use that term to tally an assist that is the result of a breakdown over the lame NBA assists of passing the ball to someone who goes 1 on 1 and scores. Too many of those pollute that stat to being next to useless.

A few years ago looked at Kuzma and Ingram as 3 point shooters vs playing more in the paint. It wasn't even close where they were more valuable. Even if I took the 3 point % up to 42% which is out of reach for either of them.

There are a few exceptions out there and even fewer of them that play enough to make a difference.

This is why Davis shooting 3's kills me... even worse is him shooting fade aways from 20'.

You and I remember a day when teams had higher pace, score more and shot 5 3 pointers a game.

[stan francisco]

I’ve watched very sporadically lately but what I’d expect Westbrook to improve rest of season is to focus on doing three things on offense:

1) Bull rush the break, probe, force the opponent to make you not attack the hoop.
2) No threes but corner threes.
3) Attack the rim for layups and offensive boards.

The rest of your normal obligations, LeBron does it all better. He doesn’t turn it over 10 TOPG. Let it go. Adjust.

[Kilroy]

Just pointing out that Westbrook has been playing much better lately... I wouldn't say he's an excellent defender at this point, but he's engaged and relatively effective, his shot looks a little more consistent and he's getting to the rim more often and drawing fouls...

If he continues to play like this, we may have a shot when AD and Lebron get back...

Gabriel and Johnson are developing into a dynamic duo on both ends of the court too... Chemistry is building, but it's a weird chemistry that seems to be developing in spite of the stars rather than because of them... So it'll be interesting to see what happens when everyone gets healthy.

Nunn tho...

[zimpy27]

Just pointing out that Westbrook has been playing much better lately... I wouldn't say he's an excellent defender at this point, but he's engaged and relatively effective, his shot looks a little more consistent and he's getting to the rim more often and drawing fouls...

If he continues to play like this, we may have a shot when AD and Lebron get back...

Gabriel and Johnson are developing into a dynamic duo on both ends of the court too... Chemistry is building, but it's a weird chemistry that seems to be developing in spite of the stars rather than because of them... So it'll be interesting to see what happens when everyone gets healthy.

Nunn tho...

Yeah he's been playing well since the deadline was over, maybe it was fear of being traded?

Anyway, if he can continue this form then he might be worth keeping around at that renegotiated 1+1 player option deal for $56m total. That gives the Lakers a lot to work with.

THT+FRP for Melton+Tillman is the small trade that makes it better IMO

Melton, Westbrook, Reaves, LeBron, Davis -- Nunn, Monk, SJ, Melo, Tillman