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A new odom?

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EHL
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Post#81 » by EHL » Fri Feb 15, 2008 12:57 am

KobeFan wrote:
EHL wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



Not sure why you continue to parrot this falsehood. List the players that are getting paid an average of $12M annually in the NBA, like Lamar has, and then argue from there that he has played up to his contract.

And if you want to be accurate, he has averaged a double double only once in his career.


Don't be petty. Odom has averaged close to 10 rebs per season since he signed his contract.

Season Rebs
2004 9.7
2005 10.2
2006 9.3
2007 9.7
2008 9.9

He signed an official 6/$65 before the 2002-2003. Trade escalators and interest on a back loaded contract should not be used against him. http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?id=1603975

Odom is a 15/10/5 player. Any big man who can put up those numbers but dribble, pass, and run an offense like a point guard brings a unique skill set to the open market.

The market will pay for that skill set, and I hope to god when we lose him, his new fans will appreciate his production.


Amazing that you manage to say in one sentence not to be "petty" about rebounding numbers (even though I am 100% accurate), and then turn around and tell me we shouldn't include trade kicker money in discussing his contract despite the fact that the Lakers must actually pay him that amount of money (and since money is the only real relevance in a contract negotiation, from the Lakers perspective having to pay a trade kicker is absolutely relevant).

In any case, until you do an analysis of similar players with similar contracts, there is no way you can justify the $12M he will have averaged by the time his contract expires. The only getting paid that amount are either clearly overpaid (like Webber used to be a few years ago) or actual All Stars (Prince, Howard, Ginobili, etc.). Though, I had a feeling you would be intellectually dishonest by avoiding and deflecting my original query.

KobeFan wrote:Saying other players have more of an impact on the game, and are more legit "1st/2nd/3rd options" isn't quantitative. And it's an opinion susceptible to false perception.

When I watch the Lakers I see Odom having a tremendous impact on the game. He clearly looks like the 2nd most skilled player on the Lakers. (Pre Pau Gasol)

I've seen Odom save and garner many possessions with his length and instincts. He seems to rebound everything no matter where he's positioned, and is able to get the ball out and create fast breaks with his ball handling and speed. His shooting is streaky, but he can step outside and knock down an open three when he's on.

This type of versatility and skill set is both valuable & scarce in the NBA.


You, yourself, may believe this to be so, as impact beyond statistics is indeed hard to quantify. However, the overwhelming majority of subjective data supports those of us who claim he doesn't have much impact beyond his stats; one need look no further than his 0 All Star appearances, 0 All NBA selections, 0 All Defense Teams, and less than 1% chance of making the Hall of Fame. All subjective indicators, but all clearly point to our opinion on LO being far more based in reality.
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Post#82 » by Gerald3Wallace » Fri Feb 15, 2008 12:59 am

i just hope odom keeps playing the way he is playing...and of course..get a contract around 8-10 mil a year
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Post#83 » by Squirrel Boy » Fri Feb 15, 2008 1:03 am

Erik Eleven wrote:Welcome to the board, by the way. :wave:


:lol:

Good ish EE. Feed his words into his mouth and then say welcome to the board mate.

Classic EE. You the man!
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Post#84 » by KobeFan » Fri Feb 15, 2008 1:28 am

In any case, until you do an analysis of similar players with similar contracts, there is no way you can justify the $12M he will have averaged by the time his contract expires.


You haven't proved anything beyond what I have. It's funny how you can use data (you're not willing to gather) to add substance to an argument you yourself need to make

one need look no further than his 0 All Star appearances, 0 All NBA selections, 0 All Defense Teams, and less than 1% chance of making the Hall of Fame.


Are these the same people who've only voted Kobe once in the top 3 for league MVP over the last 4 seasons?

The West is stacked with elite forwards, and all star voting is nothing more than a popularity contest anyway. Every season more productive players get snubbed for the popular names.

Career accolades leave to much to happenstance.

Perception is subjective. (as we agree on that) If we are going to disagree on "subjective data" then this will only turn into a writing contest. The person who is better with semantics will be more persuasive, but what will be solved?

Nothing.

So what do we turn to? Performance Data. And Odom matches up statistically with the best forwards in the game.
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Post#85 » by Sedale Threatt » Fri Feb 15, 2008 2:21 am

Since you haven't actually done this, I decided to do it for you.

Lamar is one of 19 players in the league who average more than 10 points and nine rebounds per game. Of those 19, six (all of whom are centers, for whatever it's worth) others are relatively similar to Lamar in terms of scoring/rebounding production and pay:

Lamar Odom (13.3 ppg, 9.9 rpg, 14.8 PER, 13.2 million per)

Tyson Chandler (12.5 ppg, 12.5 rpg, 18.7 PER, 10.5 million per)
Emeka Okafor (13.6 ppg, 11.1 rpg, 17.9 PER, 5.5 million per)
Samuel Dalembert (11.2 ppg, 10.0 rpg, 16.5 PER, 10.2 million per)
Brad Miller (14.4 ppg, 9.7 rpg, 17.6 PER, 10.5 million per)
Andris Biedrins (10.2 ppg, 9.7 rpg, 18.6 PER, 2.6 million per)
Zydrunas Illgauskas (13.5 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 18.8 PER, 10.1 million per)

I left out the other 13 -- players like Tim Duncan, Amare Stoudamire, Chris Bosh -- because their production in certain areas, mostly scoring, is notably better than Lamar's. Marcus Camby, another player I excluded, scores less but is a significantly better defensive player.

With respect to Miller, Lamar is a better playmaker than the six players he's grouped with. But you can make the strong case for some, especially Chandler and Okafor, that their defensive play more than makes up for the difference.

Also, Kobe Fan, because you like PER so much, you should note that Lamar is currently ranked 130th in the league and seventh on the Lakers in that category.

So take from that what you want.

To me, it would seem relatively apparent that Lamar is deserving of a contract in the ballpark of 10 or 11 million per season, which is well under what he's making this year but pretty much the average of what he'll make over the entirety of his current six-year contract.

Does he deserve to take a pay cut? Probably not, unless his numbers take a big slide after moving to SF. But he definitely doesn't deserve to get a pay raise, either. Frankly, I can't imagine there being a huge bidding war for his services if he does hit the open market.
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Post#86 » by KobeFan » Fri Feb 15, 2008 3:11 am

another great post. thanks for the information.
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Post#87 » by EHL » Fri Feb 15, 2008 3:55 am

KobeFan wrote:You haven't proved anything beyond what I have. It's funny how you can use data (you're not willing to gather) to add substance to an argument you yourself need to make


It's well known if you've ever perused hoophype.com's salary lists, or just follow non-Laker teams in general. Sedale Threatt delineated nicely various salaries, clearly showing Odom isn't going to get paid 12M per year and certainly won't be getting any pay raises. If the Lakers can resign him for under $10M per, I'd feel good about that.

Are these the same people who've only voted Kobe once in the top 3 for league MVP over the last 4 seasons?


True, but at least the criterion (as bad as it is for MVP) can be explained away based on wins (the only reason he didn't get a top 3). Of course, still no mention from you about how he makes no All Star teams, no All D teams, no All NBA teams, etc. despite the fact that the only players making double digit salaries who don't do those things are overpaid. Guys like Howard, who makes about $10.4M per year is an All Star. Guys like Manu, who makes about $8.7M per year, is an All Star. Guys like Prince, who makes about $9.5M per year, is an All D team member. It's not hard to look up the salaries, they are available for public consumption and it's not at all difficult to see why most Laker fans conclude that Odom is overpaid. Not by a lot, he's not stealing money by averaging $12M per year, but no question he underperforms compared to his peers, especially peers on championship contenders.

West is stacked with elite forwards, and all star voting is nothing more than a popularity contest anyway. Every season more productive players get snubbed for the popular names.


Except he also spent a season in the East, arguably his best, and never got voted in by the fans then either and, of course, coaches also get to vote for All Star games without limitation; Odom hasn't been selected in those cases either. And no comment on his lack of All NBA or All D selections? You seem to think not a single All Star selection isn't really substantive, so in that case, why no mention of All D or All NBA selections? Those bunk too?

Career accolades leave to much to happenstance.

Perception is subjective. (as we agree on that) If we are going to disagree on "subjective data" then this will only turn into a writing contest. The person who is better with semantics will be more persuasive, but what will be solved?

Nothing.

So what do we turn to? Performance Data. And Odom matches up statistically with the best forwards in the game.


Statistically Odom does not match up well with other forwards, this is a flat falsehood, much like your contention that Worthy and Odom had similar statistical impact without mentioning his postseason performances, role on his team (Worthy was 2nd/3rd option up to age 28 vs. LO being 1st/2nd option up to age 28).

This season LO is a 14.7 PER player at $12.1M per year by the end of his contract. The following player's PERs and their mean yearly checks over the length of their contracts:

Howard: 19.7 PER ($10.4M per year)
Manu: 25.4 PER ($8.7M per year)
Prince: 15.4 PER ($9.5M per year)
Brand: 23.1 PER last season ($13.7M per year)
Turkoglu: 17.6 PER ($6.1M per year)
West: 19.9 PER ($9.1M per year)

All of these guys are on elite teams save for Brand, arguably every single one of those are contenders. All of them outperform Odom statistically this season (while Prince doesn't outperform him statistically over his career, his 3 All Defense Team selections show his impact clearly go beyond offensive statistics). All of them have superior accolades to LO save for Turk and West. The numbers tell a clear story and my analysis was by no means thorough. I'm sure I could tack on several more players.

Anyway, with Turk, I would argue there really isn't much difference in impact between him and Odom just by my plain observation, and their mutual lack of accolades agrees with that assertion. But at half the money, he's obviously the better bargain without question. In West's case, he is much better statistically this season and better than any season LO has ever had, but has a similar lack of any accolades to Odom. However, West has also been in the league 4 seasons less than Odom so it's a slightly unfair comparison career-wise. But at $3M less per year, again, he's a solidly better bargain than Odom.

Though, again, this is the misleading nature of statistics, where West has a PER of 19.9 this season, just about equal to any regular season of James Worthy's career, yet no one sane would take West over Worthy if they have watched any basketball whatsoever.
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Post#88 » by Gerald3Wallace » Fri Feb 15, 2008 4:29 am

what is PER? is it efficiency?
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Post#89 » by Kobay » Sat Feb 16, 2008 1:24 am

only player reliable against good teams are gasol, Ronny, and Bryant. THe rest are completely useless against good defensive teams including Bynum.
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Post#90 » by dockingsched » Sat Feb 16, 2008 4:07 pm

u forgot the machine.
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Post#91 » by 0HeadAche0 » Sat Feb 16, 2008 7:20 pm

i quite like Odom.
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Post#92 » by Sroek » Sat Feb 16, 2008 8:46 pm

Odom seems to play more natural at the 3 with a dominant big man. Imagine when Bynum comes back, Odom will have more leeway to roam the court.
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Post#93 » by ImmortalD24 » Sat Feb 16, 2008 9:08 pm

Sroek wrote:Odom seems to play more natural at the 3 with a dominant big man. Imagine when Bynum comes back, Odom will have more leeway to roam the court.
Odom's natural position is the 4, he can't rebound, and score well at the 3 since he'll be forced to stand at the 3point line.
EHL wrote:In West's case, he is much better statistically this season and better than any season LO has ever had, but has a similar lack of any accolades to Odom.

He was chosen as a reserve player for the 2008 NBA All-Star Game along with teammate Chris Paul.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_West ... ketball%29
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Post#94 » by EHL » Sun Feb 17, 2008 8:48 am

^ Ah, didn't know that. Thanks for that info.

Though, I must say, I'm disappointed KobeFan just conceded the argument.

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