RealGM

Bulls motivated to make a trade
Posted: Friday August 01, 2008 06:49AM ET

According to a league source, the Bulls have interest in Brad Miller (and many others) and are shopping forward Andres Nocioni (four years, $29 million left with team option for the 2012-13 at $7.5 million) and point guard Kirk Hinrich (five seasons left for combined $44.5 million). They appear very motivated to do a deal of some kind now that the Luol Deng situation has been resolved.


SOURCE:
http://www.sacbee.com/static/weblogs/sports/kings/archives/014245.html

dcash4 wrote:zero chance lakers take on those contracts. should be obvious by now.

hermes wrote:mitch is on vacation, probably no reception in whatever magical land he's gone off to

monk302 wrote:Too much $$$$$.

dcash4 wrote:zero chance lakers take on those contracts. should be obvious by now.

WCDYNASTY wrote:

dcash4 wrote:zero chance lakers take on those contracts. should be obvious by now.

You never know, they could easily come this way in a trade for Odom.

C - Andrew Bynum
F - Pau Gasol
F - Andres Nocioni
G - Kobe Bryant
G - Kirk Hinrich

Asianiac_24 wrote:Id say a Hinrich and Gooden for Odom is a good deal for both teams

crazyeights wrote:Then who starts at SF? Does Kobe rotate down to the 3? Does Hinrich play SG? Because the entire point of this seems to be for Nocioni to replace Odom at small forward...or at least the most pertinent point anyway.

milesfides wrote:Yeah, exactly, the luxury tax is prohibitive.

That being said, I can entertain certain scenarios because the Lakers will have to pay SOME luxury tax. They can't avoid it entirely, at least not in the near future. This depends on how much the Lakers are willing to go over the luxury tax, but I think this deal makes sense:

Odom
Radmanovic
Farmar

Hinrich
Nocioni

The Bulls have to eat something, in this case, Radmanovic's contract, for the Lakers to even consider a deal at all.

But Farmar also has to be included, to sweeten the deal for Chicago, getting a young talented PG to back up Rose, on a rookie contract. For us, Farmar wouldn't get the minutes battling Fish for minutes behind Hinrich. Moreover, he's up for an extension in about a year, so unloading him precludes the addition of his salary and tax on our payroll.

Now, let's look at the numbers:

1. In year one, those three cost us around 21m.
Trading for Hinrich and Nocioni (18m) saves us 3m + 3m in luxury tax this season, so 6m savings total.

2. Next year, there's several scenarios a) Odom at a discount b) Odom expires, team instead uses MLE to replace him c) Odom expires, team does nothing

a) Let's say the Lakers extend Odom for around 10m (or sign and trade him), which is fairly conservative. 10m + 6.5 (Radamn) + 2 (Farmar) = 18.5m.
b) MLE signing: 6m + 6.5 (Radamn) + 2 (Farmar) = 14.5m.
c) zero, nothing. 0m + 6.5 + 2 = 8.5m.

On the other hand, it's 17m for Kirk and Andres, due to their declining salaries, which yields

a) savings of 1.5m plus the tax, so 3m total.
b) deficit of 2.5m so 5m total.
c) deficit of 8.5m so 17m total.

3. In year three, things get a little more complicated due to Farmar's extension, but I'll estimate it as the MLE = 6m. Following the 3 scenarios above:

a) 10m (Odom) + 7m (Radman) + 6m (Farmar) = 23m
b) 6m (MLE) + 7m + 6m = 19m
c) 0m + 7m + 6m = 13m

On the other hand: 16m for Kirk and Andres, again, declining salaries.

Here are the differences:

a) savings of 7m plus the tax = 14m
b) savings of 3m plus the tax = 6m
c) deficit of 3m plus the tax = 6m


Breakdown:

Taking all three years, in comparison to the salaries of Hinrich and Nocioni

a) Extending Odom (or similar) for 10m yields a savings of: 6m + 3m +14m = 23m
b) Replacing him with an MLE player instead yields a savings of: 6m - 5m + 6m = 7m
c) Letting him expire for nothing yields a deficit of: 6m - 17m - 6m = -17m


In short, trading for Kirk and Nocioni only makes sense under these conditions and these assumptions. First of all, Chicago must agree to take back Radmanovic, they can't wipe the slate completely clean. Second, the Lakers' willingness depends on just how firmly they're committed to minimizing the luxury tax.

Bottom line, if the Lakers want to wipe Odom's contract off, but are WILLING to assume at least an MLE-type addition and also extend a reasonable deal to Farmar, then this deal is a great one. The Lakers come out ahead both financially and basketball-wise (they can't get a better PG and SF, not without breaking up their core or pushing the luxury tax).

But if the Lakers want to minimize the luxury tax at ALL COSTS, then Odom fans will have their hearts broken, our team will lose talent, we will have certain holes, etc., and we'd better get used to not seeing new faces, and get used to losing old ones.