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Sasha Vujacic, Lakers
Talk about a jump in shooting percentages. In his first three pro seasons, Vujacic shot 36.5 percent on long 2-pointers and 34.3 percent on 3s; last season, he made 45.2 percent of his long 2s and 43.7 percent of his 3s. The truth on Vujacic likely lies somewhere in between the two extremes. It means he'll continue to have value but won't match the type of numbers he put up last season. A preseason ankle problem and a possible loss of minutes to Trevor Ariza are other factors working against him.

Derek Fisher, Lakers
Fisher's first season back in L.A. was quite a turnaround, as he hit 45.3 percent of his 2s after making 41.1 percent over the previous three seasons; his 43.6 percent overall shooting mark was his best in half a decade. In fact, he was nearly a Fluke Rule qualifier. Given that he's 34, that his shooting mark is likely to return to earth and that Jordan Farmar is breathing down his neck for playing time, he's a good candidate to see his numbers regress this season.

Pau Gasol, Lakers
I've written about this plenty already, but the return of Andrew Bynum is going to make things a lot harder for Gasol offensively. He's going to lose a lot of low-post touches to Bynum, and while he's an effective high-post player, he's a lot more dangerous when he's on the block. People don't really think of him as a go-to post guy because of his skinny frame, but he is; that aspect of his game now will take a back seat.

Ummm I dont agree with any of these assements. You dont have to be a spring chicken to hit open jumpers. So I think Fisher and the Machine will do just fine. The Machine has shown the ability to get to the rim this year more than usual. Fisher is Fisher. He thrives on open shots. Gasol has been golden with the addition of Bynum. I swear I think half of these guys dont watch the NBA.

I agree with Hollinger. I think Fisher's stats will decline because Farmar will start playing more minutes. Sasha's stats will decline because Ariza is playing more of his minutes. Gasol's stats will decline because we have better big men depth.

Their stats will decline but I think their efficiency will stay the same.

Patterns wrote:I agree with Hollinger. I think Fisher's stats will decline because Farmar will start playing more minutes. Sasha's stats will decline because Ariza is playing more of his minutes. Gasol's stats will decline because we have better big men depth.

Their stats will decline but I think their efficiency will stay the same.

Disagree. Dont discount Sasha because he has had a injury. The Machine is a scorer, Phil wants Ariza to be a defensive specialist. Translation, Ariza will get the scraps when the Machine misses. Sasha was a 4th quarter contributor last year in the playoffs. I look for him to get alot of minutes. Also when the Machine gets healthy I look for Ariza minutes to be cut a little. I think Phil will move Kobe to SF and put the Machine at SG

Hollinger is on dope or a drug that's undetectable. This is another "look at me have an organism piece". It's possible Fish numbers may dip but not much because Jordan has yet to show he can sustain a certain level of play for the whole season. In each of his two seasons he's flat lined down the stretch.

Patterns wrote:I agree with Hollinger. I think Fisher's stats will decline because Farmar will start playing more minutes. Sasha's stats will decline because Ariza is playing more of his minutes. Gasol's stats will decline because we have better big men depth.

Their stats will decline but I think their efficiency will stay the same.

then you DON'T agree with hollinger. he said both sasha and fisher would see a dip in efficiency.

Hollinger is not a guy who makes analysis based on players play;' its all about his formulas and they dont carry too much weight. IMO

I would respect his claims if they are made with both basketball watching and his numbers but he usually sticks to just his rating system and that just doesnt work with me.

Although I agree with the anti-Hollinger sentiment...last season his super computers were showing the Lakers to be contenders way before anyone took them seriously.

Fishers stats probably dip a little... Sasha ppg may go down, but his percentages should be about the same... I think he is way off on Gasol though.... If his numbers go down it will only be because he plays a lot less minutes as we blow everybody out, but he should still be good for 18+, 8+, 55%+ if he gets his usual minutes

Phil_2.0 wrote:Hollinger is not a guy who makes analysis based on players play;' its all about his formulas and they dont carry too much weight. IMO

I would respect his claims if they are made with both basketball watching and his numbers but he usually sticks to just his rating system and that just doesnt work with me.

^ +10000

It's hilarious how he'll even recognize a valid point based on logic and observation, then he'll dismiss it solely because his rating system or some statistic might indicate otherwise.

Also, yeah he's a slave to stats, but he'll say things that'll protect him in the future. For example, he didn't pick the Lakers to win the Western Conf., but after the Lakers blew out the Blazers and Clips, he claimed that the Lakers have the highest ceiling in basketball...

you just know that's going to set up another column to save face when the Lakers kick ass all year and winit. Even better, he's going to find some statistics to explain why his previous stats were wrong.

That's the beauty of Hollinger, he's always right after the fact.

Does a small decline in stats mean they will be worse? I guess KG ALlen and Pierce last year were all on the downside.

milesfides wrote:

Phil_2.0 wrote:Hollinger is not a guy who makes analysis based on players play;' its all about his formulas and they dont carry too much weight. IMO

I would respect his claims if they are made with both basketball watching and his numbers but he usually sticks to just his rating system and that just doesnt work with me.

^ +10000

It's hilarious how he'll even recognize a valid point based on logic and observation, then he'll dismiss it solely because his rating system or some statistic might indicate otherwise.

Also, yeah he's a slave to stats, but he'll say things that'll protect him in the future. For example, he didn't pick the Lakers to win the Western Conf., but after the Lakers blew out the Blazers and Clips, he claimed that the Lakers have the highest ceiling in basketball...

you just know that's going to set up another column to save face when the Lakers kick ass all year and winit. Even better, he's going to find some statistics to explain why his previous stats were wrong.

That's the beauty of Hollinger, he's always right after the fact.

How would Hollinger be worse than other analysts? Just because he tries to use stats and evident to back up his claim? You might not agree with him but at least he's different from other writers.

By the way, he said the Lakers have the highest ceiling way before the season started. You can still read his predictions on ESPN.com.

Dexmor wrote:Does a small decline in stats mean they will be worse? I guess KG ALlen and Pierce last year were all on the downside.

You make a very good point, Dexmor.

+1 for Hollinger