Analyzing our defense, and its gradual decline.

[semi-sentient]

Another slow day at work, so I decided to look at the box scores for all of our games to determine what has changed from our hot defensive start until now. I know that box scores don't tell the whole story, but they seem to back up the general observations made from fans here that have watched every game and scrutinized certain players for not doing a better job on that end of the floor. Feel free to chime in.

Going through the games, I noticed that we've played 3 different levels of defense: historic, mediocre, atrocious. It appears to me that much of this can be attributed to a lack of effort/energy, which is odd considering we're supposed to have one of the younger teams in the league. The other part of it is obviously mental (young guys not understanding their role -- Bynum), which means that we've failed to adjust to teams adjusting to us. Some of this has to go on the coaching staff for not stressing the obvious enough -- we're leaving too many shooters open and not pressuring the ball nearly as much. Another part of it is injuries which has forced our starters into playing more minutes. I don't want to make excuses for them, but guys like Fisher and Kobe aren't going to be at their most effective if they don't have their legs well rested. In the case of Bynum, he just doesn't have the conditioning to keep it up, and his minutes have increased as well.

Having said that, here is how we have faired throughout the season. Notice that the only statistic that has improved is our rebounding differential. Everything else (FG%, 3P%, STL, BLK) has gradually worsened.

First 11 games:

Code: Select all

  PTS Allowed: 91.3
      OPP FG%: 378-902 (.419)
      OPP 3P%:  72-221 (.325)
     REB Diff: +1.5
       Steals: 10.4
       Blocks:  6.6
OPP Turnovers: 17.5

OPP FG% under 40%: 4 times (36% of games)
OPP FG% under 43%: 8 times (73% of games)
OPP FG% above 43%: 2 times (18% of games)
OPP FG% above 50%: 1 times (9% of games)

Notes: We were relatively injury free during this stretch of games, and both Bynum and Radmanovic were playing particularly well on the defensive end. Granted our competition wasn't all that great and teams weren't hitting their strides yet, we played excellent defense on a consistent basis. We had one poor defensive performance and that was against the Pistons when they beat us on our floor. They seemed to expose our lack of perimeter defense for the 1st time, particularly from behind the arc.

Grade: A+


Next 18 games:

Code: Select all

  PTS Allowed: 101.5
      OPP FG%: 677-1505 (.449)
      OPP 3P%: 144-408 (.352)
     REB Diff: +2.0
       Steals:  8.4
       Blocks:  4.9
OPP Turnovers: 14.8

OPP FG% under 40%: 4 times (22% of games)
OPP FG% under 43%: 5 times (28% of games)
OPP FG% above 43%: 13 times (72% of games)
OPP FG% above 50%: 3 times (17% of games)

Notes: Practically every defensive statistic was worse during this stretch of games. Our opponent FG% (including 3P%) increased, while we forced less turnovers and blocked less shots. We were relatively injury free during this stretch of games, with exception to 4 games missed by Farmar who wasn't playing particularly well on the defensive end to begin with. The most troubling statistic is the amount of times opponents shot over 43%, which was 13 times (72% of the time) as opposed to 2 times (18% of the time) in the first 11 games. We also saw a dramatic rise in points allowed, which jumped from 91.3 points to 101.5 points, a difference of +10.2. We also forced almost 3 less turnovers per contest, blocked 2.8 less shots, and stole the ball 2 less times.

Grade: C+


Last 10 games:

Code: Select all

  PTS Allowed: 106.6
      OPP FG%: 404-845 (.478)
      OPP 3P%: 78-206 (.378)
     REB Diff: +1.0
       Steals:  7.3
       Blocks:  3.6
OPP Turnovers: 12.7

OPP FG% under 40%: 1 times (10% of games)
OPP FG% under 43%: 2 times (20% of games)
OPP FG% above 43%: 8 times (80% of games)
OPP FG% above 50%: 3 times (30% of games)

Notes: The trend of poor defense continues. From being the best defense in the league, to playing mediocre defense, to playing like one of the worst defensive teams in the league during this stretch. Points allowed once again rose by almost 5 and our opponent FG% once again shot up from 45% (35% 3P) to over 48% (37% 3P), which is unacceptable. While some of this can be attributed to injury and our starters playing more minutes, I don't think this is the main reason. We've had mental lapses time and time again, and shooters are being left open more than ever as evidenced by the fact that teams are shooting a very high percentage against us. Turnovers are way down, dropping from 14.8 to 11.8. We simply aren't pressuring the ball enough and forcing turnovers like we were earlier in the season (steals dropped slightly). As far as blocked shots goes, this is clearly another issue. Shots aren't being contested and as a team we are averaging slightly more than what Bynum alone averaged in the first 11 games. Unacceptable.

Grade: F

...

Anyway, feel free to chime in or post other observations. I'm not sure what the deal is with our guys, but unless we fix it then we can kiss any hopes of winning a championship goodbye. I still feel that we can get out of the Western Conference despite our troubles, but we aren't going to beat either the Celtics or Cavaliers (and possibly the Magic) if this disturbing trend continues. I realize that it's a long season and we have time to turn things around, but I'm troubled by our recent play against teams that we may very well face in the playoffs. It's easy to say that we have this on/off switch, but I don't believe we do as witnessed by our play against the Hornets, Rockets, and Spurs.

Edit:

Here is an illustration that combines all of the above to easily compare how we've done over that period of time:

Code: Select all

        Games   1-11   12-29   30-39    +/-

  PTS Allowed   91.3   101.5   106.6   +15.3
      OPP FG%   .419    .449    .478   +.059
      OPP 3P%   .325    .352    .378   +.053
     REB Diff   +1.5    +2.0    +1.0   -0.5
       Steals   10.4     8.4     7.3   -3.1
       Blocks    6.6     4.9     3.6   -3.0
OPP Turnovers   17.5    14.8    12.7   -4.8

[Sedale Threatt]

Quality work. I couldn't agree more -- this has been an extremely troubling trend, and if it continues it's going to greatly hamstring, and potentially derail, our championship hopes.

The best explaination I can come up with, other than the possibility (likelihood?) that we're just not a very good defensive team, content to pour all of our energy into the offensive end as Jackson has hinted at, is that with more and more games having been played, opposing teams have more opportunities to study, dissect and isolate our weaknesses.

In our case, the most troubling in my opinion is how easily our perimeter defenders, including Kobe and Trevor Ariza, give up penatration and get hung up on screens. That leads to the obvious breakdowns, where you have to have incredible discipline and teamwork to be able to make the proper reads and rotations to recover.

Considering we're giving so much playing time to guys that are either stupid or just don't have much of a defensive mentality, that's a quality we sorely lack. Compounding the issue is how poorly our interior players, especially Andrew, have contested shots.

The frustrating thing is that we play well in spurts, even for just a few moments, in most of our games. Even more frustrating is that, with our firepower, we don't have to be the second coming of the Bad Boy Pistons. We just have to be a solid defensive team, rather than great.

Yet as we've seen, with the Indiana game being the low point in my opinion, we are struggling mightily to even do that. I just have very little confidence right now that we're going to come through in a must-stop situation like the end of last night's game, in which we not only yielded the tying basket but a go-ahead 3-point play.

Fisher was the goat, and rightfully so, but unfortunately that was a breakdown I can see any number of guys on our team committing, which doesn't bode well.

[That Nicka]

I'm not worried about it yet... Ever since Phil has joined the Lakers our defense has historically gone up a few notches in the post-season... I would rather conserve energy for the playoffs then burn ourselves out like the 07 Mavs winning 67 games and losing in the first round... We might have enough talent to coast through the regular season and still end up with home court throughout... Regardless, look for our defense to tighten as the season comes to an end and likewise look for us to be playing our best basketball when May comes around -- like all Phil Jackson teams do

[TylersLakers]

I don't think you'll see us play consistent defense until the post season, unfortunately.

We played so well in the first 10 games because we had that "chip on our shoulder" and put full effort into it. We should still have that, it's just a lack of effort at times.

Everyone is at fault here, as well.

I see the defense picking up after the All Star break. Hopefully.

[hermes]

we're not a team that has the "shut'em down" mentality on defense, and i doubt they will ever acquire it, to the state that we want them too

their in Hollywood, and people love Showtime, and that is what they want to do

that said, can't get any worse than an F, can only go up from here!

[semi-sentient]

I don't think you'll see us play consistent defense until the post season, unfortunately.

I keep telling myself that, but I don't have much confidence in that thought. If we were playing decent defense then I might think that we were taking it easy and saving it for the playoffs, but recently we've been completely unable to get stops when needed. I don't think that's a good sign, and I'm not sure if this team has "it" the way we used to back in the 3-peat days where we really turned it on in the playoffs (particularly on that 01 squad).

Also, we are still fighting for home court advantage and I believe we will absolutely need it to win a championship if we face either the Cavs or the Celtics who are damn near unbeatable at home. Our team is young enough that they don't need to conserve this amount of energy (assuming that is the case, which I doubt), so hopefully you and the voice in my head are right about turning it on come playoff time.

[Kobe_for_3]

I don't think you'll see us play consistent defense until the post season, unfortunately.

We played so well in the first 10 games because we had that "chip on our shoulder" and put full effort into it. We should still have that, it's just a lack of effort at times.

Everyone is at fault here, as well.

I see the defense picking up after the All Star break. Hopefully.

I think you are 100% right!! We can still win 60+ with the d as is,that is why we seem to loose focus. This team is very deep and talented and the d will pick as the season goes on, but its going to make for some close games - we will win some and we will loose some, but we will be strong come playoffs.

[fareweatherfan]

Agreed. Also, we must give enough weight to the injuries of late. The guys know its just impossible to play 48 minutes of solid D with such a limited roster.

They've been saving it for the fourth, and at times (see last night against the Spurs) we have looked amazing defensively in the fourth.

[dingclancy]

I remember Phil Jackson in a Real NBA episode where he was talking with the Bulls in the huddle and he actually said - "lay off the pressure now. Play them softly on D" He literally instructed the Bulls not to play D on a key stretch.

[AceFresh]

well .

[microfib4thewin]

Phil's Laissez faire approach may be the undoing of this team. Back then the Bulls and the 3 peat Lakers have veterans who know defense is important, but this team is young and has alot of time left in their career someone needs to keep them in check if you want to see consistent defense from this team.

[Sedale Threatt]

I love how people in the game threads keep saying, No big deal, it's only January, we'll get it together when it counts. Completely disregarding the indisputable statistical proof that our defense isn't getting better as the year goes on, or merely treading water. We're getting worse, and it's been going on for almost two months.

[shobe_81]

Yep ST spot on. I'm tired of hearing Kobe saying "Well it's just one game" blah blah, it becomes 1 game and then it becomes 2 games, and eventually a habit as shown through those statistics.

We've seen this teams defensive capabilities, but we've also seen their mental lapses.

[BallAboveAll]

Our biggest problem is leaving 3 point shooters wide open. And it's not like it's one or two guys everyone does it. It's really frustrating to see them make the same mistakes over and over. We are lucky to have our record. I wouldn't mind seeing a few more loses so that we can get our act together.

[Sedale Threatt]

That's the frustrating part. (Although I do have to say that Fisher, as the first line of defense, and Bynum, as the last, are the biggest problems.) Everybody's responsible.

There was a late play where Pau and Radmanovic got mixed up in a rotation and, instead of one flying out to cover the open shooter in the corner (I think it was Turkoglu), both of them took the guy rolling to the basket. We make mistakes like that time and time and time again.

I don't buy the notion that a light switch is suddenly going to get flipped after a loss, though. People have been pushing that idea for a month now, and it's yet to happen. I'm getting the sinking feeling that our fast start was merely a mirage, and we simply don't have the personnel to play consistently good defense.

Look at our rotation:

Fisher -- poor, terrible at fighting through screens.
Bynum -- poor; rebounding and shot blocking has nosedived.
Gasol -- underrated, but not great; susceptible to strength and/or quickness.
Bryant -- good, but loses concentration often.
Ariza -- solid, better off the ball than on.
Radmanovic -- poor, has no concept of operating within a scheme.
Odom -- solid, I generally like what he does.
Walton -- mediocre, just not a very good athlete.
Vujacic -- poor, tries hard but commits too many stupid fouls.
Farmar -- poor, physically weak in addition to lack of effort.
Powell -- inc., haven't seen enough.

I'm probably on the harsh side following a tough loss, but if you take an honest look at our roster, I bet I'm not too far off. Then when you add the fact that good defense requires commitment and concentration from everybody on the court, there isn't much mystery why we've been struggling for two months.

[dingclancy]

Bynum sucks. I can get 3 rebounds. Play me

[microfib4thewin]

That's the frustrating part. (Although I do have to say that Fisher, as the first line of defense, and Bynum, as the last, are the biggest problems.) Everybody's responsible.

There was a late play where Pau and Radmanovic got mixed up in a rotation and, instead of one flying out to cover the open shooter in the corner (I think it was Turkoglu), both of them took the guy rolling to the basket. We make mistakes like that time and time and time again.

I don't buy the notion that a light switch is suddenly going to get flipped after a loss, though. People have been pushing that idea for a month now, and it's yet to happen. I'm getting the sinking feeling that our fast start was merely a mirage, and we simply don't have the personnel to play consistently good defense.

Look at our rotation:

Fisher -- poor, terrible at fighting through screens.
Bynum -- poor; rebounding and shot blocking has nosedived.
Gasol -- underrated, but not great; susceptible to strength and/or quickness.
Bryant -- good, but loses concentration often.
Ariza -- solid, better off the ball than on.
Radmanovic -- poor, has no concept of operating within a scheme.
Odom -- solid, I generally like what he does.
Walton -- mediocre, just not a very good athlete.
Vujacic -- poor, tries hard but commits too many stupid fouls.
Farmar -- poor, physically weak in addition to lack of effort.
Powell -- inc., haven't seen enough.

I'm probably on the harsh side following a tough loss, but if you take an honest look at our roster, I bet I'm not too far off. Then when you add the fact that good defense requires commitment and concentration from everybody on the court, there isn't much mystery why we've been struggling for two months.

You can't exepct to build a team where everyone can play solid defense. It's as ridiculous as having a roster where you hope there are no offensive liabilities. The reason why the Lakers are so good at offense is not because they are much more stacked than the other team, but because everyone plays within their roles so they look much better in the triangle. The defense is different, guys don't communicate and they don't seem to have any plans on who should cover the shooters and who should prevent a backdoor pass. Without an attitude adjustment no trades will solve their defensive woes.

[Sedale Threatt]

How about a roster with more than four players who can play solid defense? (if that many; I'm sure a lot of people would question Gasol's inclusion in that group)

Is that too much to ask?

[Dr Aki]

how about striping kurt rambis of defensive coaching duties and hire JVG???

its all in the head, the lakers simply have an offensive minded mentality

as much as want them to smash the daylights out of opponents on both ends of the floor, they just don't have the mental capacity to rub opponents out every night in the regular season

of course if they don't show a little more heart as an indicator of how serious they need to take their play in order to toughen their defense in time for the playoffs after the all-star break, then maybe it might need to hit that big red panic button

i dont want to see the lakers go on an emotion fueled tear and then try to play russian roulette when the engine's running on fumes, only to see them drop themselves into the playoffs drained and lifeless...

[dockingsched]

Bynum sucks. I can get 3 rebounds. Play me

bynum's rebound total last 5 games: 5, 6, 1, 3, 3 = 3.6 rpg

(vlad last 5 games: 1, 2, 6, 7, 2 = 3.6 rpg)

bynum's rpg in january: 5.4

last time bynum had back to back 10+ rebounds: dec 10th and 12th.


ouch.