Breaking Down The WCF: Los Angeles Lakers vs Denver Nuggets

[TylersLakers]

Ever since the early season trade of Allen Iverson for Chauncey Billups, the Denver Nuggets have been a much different team. Billups has brought new elements to the Nuggets that possibly no other player in the league could have done; professionalism, accountability, toughness and direction.

Before you even get to his on-court ability or how much he took the hearts out of us when he was in Detroit, you have to look at the intangibles that he brings. Before his arrival, the Nuggets were a juggernaut and that wasn't the best fit for them. George Karl has stressed defense since he came to Denver, but he never had a player to buy in and allow the rest of the team to follow his lead. He has that now with Billups and that's where his accountability, defense, and professionalism comes into play.

However, the most important factor to his arrival is his direction. Here's a player who's been to a Conference Final for now the seventh-straight year. Before he landed in Denver, the Nuggets would have been content with a first round win. After that happened this year, Chauncey said that he thought it was good for the franchise, but he has bigger things to accomplish. With his maturity and direction, the rest of the team has followed that approach. Now, with the juggernaut they were formerly, Denver has taken all that talent they previously had and put it in line.

Denver has such a similar feel that the Lakers do. They're the classic Western Conference, push the ball, play-defense-good-enough-to-win, team. They have an excellent, rowdy home court and are extremely tough to beat when everything is clicking for them. This brings me to Key Number 1. The Lakers have to force the Nuggets out of their comfort zone, and avoid the momentum swings that Denver will produce. The Lakers match up very good with this team as opposed to Houston. The Rockets reminded me of a grind it out, Eastern Conference team. We're getting a whole different type of attitude here. They'll try to attack us right from the get-go, and it's up to us to respond and hit them right back.

-------------------------------------------------------------

PG: Derek Fisher vs Chauncey Billups

Obviously, Fish struggled last series. Clearly, Aaron Brooks' style is the type of style that the Lakers have severe problems defending. Our pick and roll defense is horrible against little guards, and Brooks used his speed to beat the angles and get to the basket. Chauncey is much more methodical in his approach, and that will probably be a welcome sign to Derek. Of course, Derek and Gary Payton were also the point guards back in 2004 - and he still murdered us. Now that both are five years older and now that both have lost a couple gears (Fish more so than Chauncey), this will be a different type of match-up. I don't think Derek will have too much to worry about on defense. He can't rotate off Chauncey because he's a dead-eye shooter from distance. One area I think that could possibly hurt is, is Billups' post-up game. If Derek can body him up and force him off the block, this will make things much easier for the Lakers so the defense isn't in scramble mode, and where Denver's open shooters can hurt us. On offense, Fisher has to start knocking down some shots, especially from three-point range.

SG: Kobe Bryant vs Dahntay Jones

Dahntay Jones will have a totally different task in this series. In the first series, he did an excellent job stopping Chris Paul. His size and physicalness absolutely took Paul out of his game. Against our Mamba, it's a totally new animal. He's going to deal with Kobe, who's taller than him, who's just as physical, and he has a totally different mindset than Paul. This isn't Dallas anymore for him, Jones' break of guarding Antonie Wright, Gerald Green and Jason Terry is over. I think Jones will be an irritant to Kobe, but I can't see that doing anything but firing up Bryant. In the second half when Kobe turns on the jets, I think the Nuggets are going to be in big trouble with this match-up, especially when JR Smith is on the floor.

When Kobe's guarding Jones, he'll probably play his "one man zone" type of defense. Jones isn't the greatest outside shooter, but he can knock down the odd jumper. As far as shooting ability, he's a little bit better than Ronnie Brewer in the Utah series. However, Jones will drive the basket and attack when given an opportunity. He absolutely crammed it over Erick Dampier's head, and with his athleticism, he's certainly capable of doing that throughout the series.

SF: Trevor Ariza vs Carmelo Anthony

This is definitely not the best match-up for the Lakers. Carmelo Anthony has been working the mid-post a lot in the playoffs. Whenever he took Josh Howard into the post, he usually scored with an array of moves. Trevor Ariza is pretty much the same build as Josh Howard so I see the exact same thing happening. Defensively, Luke Walton would probably be the better match-up. I anticipate Luke getting extended minutes in this series. When it comes to Los Angeles on offense, I imagine that Carmelo will give Trevor the shot. Melo, while deceptively quick, certainly doesn't have the foot speed that Ariza has. Trevor is going to have to knock down some shots early and then hopefully he can use the pump fake effectively and take Melo off the dribble. On defense, Ariza is just going to have to body him up and hopefully Melo settles for the outside jumper, because if Anthony takes him into the post, I don't think Trevor will see much time on the court. This could be the series where I see Vujacic emerging and the Lakers going with Kobe at the three.

PF: Pau Gasol vs Kenyon Martin

Quietly and while being very under-appreciated, Martin is one of the best post defenders in the league. He's got a strong body and I don't think Pau will be able to back him down. Like when he had success against Houston, Pau is going to have to face up and stay on the move offensively. K-Mart is not long enough to contest Gasol's mid-range jumpshot, and he's not tall enough to defend his hook shot should Pau get early post position. Also, Gasol usually gets most of his points against Denver off offensive rebound opportunities. Gasol usually volleyballs the basketball around and hurts Denver on the offensive glass. While on defense, Pau must box out and keep Martin off the boards. Even after the knee surgeries, Martin can still get up and finish with the best of them and he's one of the best "garbage men" around the hoop. Also, K-Mart has this very unorthodox running, flip shot from 5-15 feet. It's very weird, but he knocks it down at a pretty good clip.

C: Andrew Bynum vs Nene

Well, Drew will be much happier. He doesn't have to deal with "small ball lineups and little point guards coming down the lane," as he explains it. Nene is a big and tall body, so I imagine Drew will feel a little more comfortable. While on defense, Drew has to watch for Nene's 10-15 foot jump shot. He'll catch the ball in a post up and he's just as likely to shoot as he is to take it off the dribble. Drew's going to have to have quick feet against Nene. Boxing out, keeping him off the boards is a must as well. On offense, Drew doesn't have as many post up touches as he had before the injury. He'll have to attack Nene, and use his drop-step move and his counter moves to hold Nene's aggressiveness. When Chris "Birdman" Andersen checks in and he's defending Bynum or Gasol, we have to attack him. Birdman is one of the best weak-side shot blocking big guys in the league, but his post defense is suspect against bigger players.

The Benches

In my opinion, this is one of the biggest keys to the game. At the end of the series, I imagine the guys that have the biggest effect off the bench for the Lakers will be; Lamar Odom, Shannon Brown and Luke Walton, with the possibility for Vujacic to get in on the act too. Jordan Farmar was perfect for Houston defending and attacking Aaron Brooks. Brooks' size allowed Jordan to be more of a traditional point guard, seeing over the defense and creating for others off the dribble. In this case and against Chauncey Billups and Anthony Carter, Shannon Brown is the better match-up. He's much more physical and he has the size to guard Billups. Luke's defense on Carmelo Anthony is going to be key, and Odom is the X-Factor whether he's coming off the bench or starting. For this series, he's going to be best coming off the bench and pushing the tempo with the second unit. I've always said, whenever the bench is at their best, Odom is the engine. With his ball handling ability, he allows every other player (Vujacic, Farmar, Brown) to fall back into what they do best.

When the Lakers second unit is on defense, they're going to be squaring up with the best bench in the playoffs and pretty much all season. JR Smith has always hurt us (last year's playoffs, he was their only bright spot), Chris Andersen can change the game in a matter of minutes, Anthony Carter is the steady, veteran presence, and don't forget about Linas Kleiza. He's hurt us so much in past years, exploding for many 20+ point games against us. He's fallen off the radar a little bit (14.5 MPG), but if he's going to explode against any team, it's most likely going to be against us.

Final Keys:

The main keys to getting the next four wins and moving into the NBA Finals are the following.

1- Stopping Denver's Energy Bursts: Denver is a killer in spurts. They'll bait you along and get you playing a "boring" type game and then all of a sudden, they'll turn it into a rout. It usually feeds off a JR Smith explosion or a Chris Andersen block or dunk off a garbage play. Carmelo Anthony also has provided scoring explosions. Denver feeds off momentum changing plays.

2- Full 100% Effort, Defensively: Getting off to a quick start, not only offensively, but more importantly defensively is another important factor. We can't afford to come out lackadaisical like we did against Houston. We're going to need Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol to plug the lanes and we're going to need to rotate and get a hand in shooter's faces. There will be absolutely no excuse for coming out soft against the Nuggets. Inside-out, smart, basketball is what it's going to take to beat Denver.

3- Rebounding: Offensive rebounding and more importantly, defensive rebounding is going to be a key. When we've manhandled Denver, we usually had good games on the offensive glass. If we can get offensive rebounds and slow the game down a little bit, Denver's going to have a tough time beating us. Also, we can't allow Birdman, Martin, Nene to get second shot opportunities, because when they do, it's usually a momentum changer with a thunderous dunk or wide open three-point shot.

4- Forcing The Nuggets Out of What They Do: In my opinion, one of the keys to the game. We really have to understand what each player does not do well, and force them to it. Someone like Vujacic, for example, could be extremely useful getting under the skin of JR Smith and forcing them to their old habits, pre-Chauncey. Slow down the tempo of the game and do not let Denver get into a run and gun game. When we have the opportunity, get out on the break, finish the play, get back on defense. Defense is without a doubt the key to this series.

Prediction:

We match up much better with this team. If this team had an Aaron Brooks type player, they'd murder us and I wouldn't think twice about it. But they don't. I think Chauncey's leadership and Denver's maturity, as well as their X-Factors, will make this a very interesting series. In the end, I think we have the biggest advantage and that's Kobe Bryant and the length of Pau Gasol. This definitely will not be easy.

Lakers win in a tough 6 game series.

[Tee212]

nice write up! lots of interesting points.

[Slava]

Lovely post Tyler. I think the arrival of Billups has made Karl's job much easier and he's making Melo look a much better player. Just like Battier you've got to respect the professionalism and no nonsense attitude of Billups. He'd be a perfect tri compliment to Kobe but thats another topic.

Anyways the match ups that I think will trouble us the most are Andersen's energy against whoever he matches up in the 2nd unit, JR against Sasha who intends to break the cardinal rule of basketball and foul jump shooters and the most important one of Melo against Ariza. I'd much rather start Luke for this series and not let Melo settle into an early rhythm with his post game. He's got the most impressive set of post moves next to Kobe for a wing player and he's more likely to post up than dribble drive into the lanes.

They've got big shot makers in Melo and Chauncey and they've got the size in Nene, Birdman and K- Mart so they're a worthy opponent in the WCFs. I hope for no injuries or suspensions and a hard fought entertaining series. (I'd be satisfied with a Laker sweep too ).

[TruSkool]

tyler, i actually read the whole post lol...good job

this series is going down the wire, and down the last seconds

[kevin_405]

Controlling Chauncey Billips is the key to the game.. We couldn't control him in 2004 and lost ..plus Denver had a whole week to prepare for us.

To some extent we need to keep JR Smith quiet.

Rest of the matchups even out..

[magic1fan]

great breakdown tylerlakers...this will be a great hard fought series...

[The Prodigy]

I haven't watched the Nuggets much since they got Billups. How are they any different from Utah?

[hermes]

i want points and lots of them, none of this 80's-90's stuff

hang 120 on'em a night

[Erik Eleven]

Nice post, tyler.

I think this is going to be a great series to watch.

Our biggest disadvantage against Denver is gone with Ariza as a starter, in my opinion. Melo used to punk Odom in every game against them before. Won't happen with Ariza. I think this series will finally place Ariza in the top echelon of the best individual defenders in the NBA.

EDIT: 4-2 Lakers.

I also think Jones will cause more havoc for Kobe than expected. He's a tenacious defender and very athletic. Still, I'd be surprised if Kobe doesn't average 30

[Sedale Threatt]

Good job Ty. I think Billups is going to hurt us more than people expect, but otherwise I agree with just about everything else.

[The Prodigy]

Nice post, tyler.

I think this is going to be a great series to watch.

Our biggest disadvantage against Denver is gone with Ariza as a starter, in my opinion. Melo used to punk Odom in every game against them before. Won't happen with Ariza. I think this series will finally place Ariza in the top echelon of the best individual defenders in the NBA.

5-1 Lakers

Like Tyler said, there's no way Ariza can handle Carmelo in the post.

[Erik Eleven]

I think Trevor will surprise. Maybe he'll get punked on the road, but not at home.

Oops, I meant 4-2, btw.

[Erik Eleven]

Good job Ty. I think Billups is going to hurt us more than people expect, but otherwise I agree with just about everything else.

Yeah. Billups is a total alpha stud, Fisher is a good role player. Chauncey will have his way, draw fouls on Fish etc. Shannon Brown will have to do his share.

[magic1fan]

yeah i agree with you EE that trevor will be big in this series. first off he is a better defender than howard anyway,and plus people seem to forget howard was playing on two bad ankles against denver.

[KObe Bryant]

Awesome post , man. I hope our bench does much better. I hope Sasha gets his dagger role back.

[Sedale Threatt]

Good job Ty. I think Billups is going to hurt us more than people expect, but otherwise I agree with just about everything else.

Yeah. Billups is a total alpha stud, Fisher is a good role player. Chauncey will have his way, draw fouls on Fish etc. Shannon Brown will have to do his share.

It's like nobody remembers the 04 Finals. I keep reading about how Fish is going to be fine because Billups isn't quick off the dribble. This sounds to me like something somebody heard on talk radio, started passing it on and now everybody's regurgitating the same line.

Fish couldn't guard Chauncey then, so what makes anyone think he's going to be able to guard him now? Especially considering Fish has obviously lost a step after not having many to begin with, while Billups is playing about as well as he ever has.

I have to disagree with you about Trevor, though. I'm not saying he can't guard Melo, I'm just saying I think we're going to have a super tough time guarding him, no matter who's out there. It boggles my mind why Anthony struggles against us. He should be able to out-quick Walton and overpower Ariza at will.

If you're right, though, that's going to go a long, long way towards winning this series for us.

I'm going to go us in 7. We're the better team overall, plus we have homecourt. But no question Denver is playing better than we are right now, since even before the playoffs started. They look pretty close to their peak and they're going to be a very difficult opponent to conquer.

[geevesjr]

Yo Tyler, I think ESPN is trying to hire some NBA analysts - maybe you should give 'em a call.

Even though you're a Lakers fan, I think you gave a very accurate, non-biased interpretation of the WCF match up. Kobe is a Nugget killer...he loves to shush up all his haters (and he has a lot of them) when he comes to the Mile High City. We could throw Dahntay Jones and a whole block full of Ruben Pattersons (lol) at the Mamba, and he's still going to strike with lethal potency. Everyone knows that he's gonna get his.

What scares me more than anything, as a Nuggets fan, is whether or not we'll be able to contain Gasol and Bynum in the paint. If our BIGS don't play their A+ game, the Lakers will have second chance opportunities ALL DAY! Seriously, Nene's inconsistency on the road frightens me - Andrew Bynum is a million times better than Erick Dampier. And although the BirdMan is our energy catalyst, he's so anxious to stuff everyone's shot - this leads to him fouling out in the snap of a finger, and we just cannot afford this.

This series will be a blast. Let's just hope the refs don't get whistle-happy...

[Gus McCrae]

I agree the Billups will be much more difficult than Aaron Brooks. Even though brooks was too fast for Fish, we could just put in Farmar and even it out. Chauncey, while he's a slower player like Fish is, is much much much better than Aaron Brooks. He's a better FT shoter, better scorer, less turnovers, better passer, better three point shooter, smarter, more clutch...in fact, there isn't one aspect of the game where Brooks is better than Chauncey.

To say we just matched up bad against the Rockets is kind of a cop out also. Wait til we "match up" against Denver. This team is rolling right now. Agree with Tyler that the bench's will be key and Kobe is going to have to have his way with D Jones and JR Smith. Our frontline will need to outscore their frontline as well, because our only real scorer from SF down is Kobe with occasinoal baskets from the other guards and SF's. BEtween Chauncey, JR Smith and Melo, they'll outscore Kobe and Co. That's why Gasol, Odom and Bynum will need to dominate and have Kobe chip in 30 as well.

The playoffs start now in my opinion.

[garcia3]

Nice post, tyler.

I think this is going to be a great series to watch.

Our biggest disadvantage against Denver is gone with Ariza as a starter, in my opinion. Melo used to punk Odom in every game against them before. Won't happen with Ariza. I think this series will finally place Ariza in the top echelon of the best individual defenders in the NBA.

this is a joke right?? Ariza is a great hustler, plays the passing lanes really well, but he isn't one of the best individual defenders in the NBA by any stretch of imagination, he doesn't have the lateral quickness but he makes up for it with his long arms and athleticism. He is not a smart defender either, he tends to give the offensive player the baseline which causes all sorts of trouble for us, he also fouls jump shooters. I think we're in trouble with that particular matchup. Odom is better suited to guard Melo, he plays nice defense and has a bigger physical frame than Ariza

[lakersfanatic]

good post.

Other then changing who guards who... everything seems to be in place. I see phil trying to sub out guys to see who best to play with who. The only problem is, it'll be our home game 1 which is very crucial. Knowing who is best to guard who is one of the most important jobs as a coach IMO.

Carmelo is already acting cocky.. i say we shove it down his throat and make him eat it hehe. Going to be a combo between ariza and LO i think.

Go Lakers!