Breaking Down The WCF: Los Angeles Lakers vs Denver Nuggets
Posted: Mon May 18, 2009 7:21 am
Ever since the early season trade of Allen Iverson for Chauncey Billups, the Denver Nuggets have been a much different team. Billups has brought new elements to the Nuggets that possibly no other player in the league could have done; professionalism, accountability, toughness and direction.
Before you even get to his on-court ability or how much he took the hearts out of us when he was in Detroit, you have to look at the intangibles that he brings. Before his arrival, the Nuggets were a juggernaut and that wasn't the best fit for them. George Karl has stressed defense since he came to Denver, but he never had a player to buy in and allow the rest of the team to follow his lead. He has that now with Billups and that's where his accountability, defense, and professionalism comes into play.
However, the most important factor to his arrival is his direction. Here's a player who's been to a Conference Final for now the seventh-straight year. Before he landed in Denver, the Nuggets would have been content with a first round win. After that happened this year, Chauncey said that he thought it was good for the franchise, but he has bigger things to accomplish. With his maturity and direction, the rest of the team has followed that approach. Now, with the juggernaut they were formerly, Denver has taken all that talent they previously had and put it in line.
Denver has such a similar feel that the Lakers do. They're the classic Western Conference, push the ball, play-defense-good-enough-to-win, team. They have an excellent, rowdy home court and are extremely tough to beat when everything is clicking for them. This brings me to Key Number 1. The Lakers have to force the Nuggets out of their comfort zone, and avoid the momentum swings that Denver will produce. The Lakers match up very good with this team as opposed to Houston. The Rockets reminded me of a grind it out, Eastern Conference team. We're getting a whole different type of attitude here. They'll try to attack us right from the get-go, and it's up to us to respond and hit them right back.
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PG: Derek Fisher vs Chauncey Billups
Obviously, Fish struggled last series. Clearly, Aaron Brooks' style is the type of style that the Lakers have severe problems defending. Our pick and roll defense is horrible against little guards, and Brooks used his speed to beat the angles and get to the basket. Chauncey is much more methodical in his approach, and that will probably be a welcome sign to Derek. Of course, Derek and Gary Payton were also the point guards back in 2004 - and he still murdered us. Now that both are five years older and now that both have lost a couple gears (Fish more so than Chauncey), this will be a different type of match-up. I don't think Derek will have too much to worry about on defense. He can't rotate off Chauncey because he's a dead-eye shooter from distance. One area I think that could possibly hurt is, is Billups' post-up game. If Derek can body him up and force him off the block, this will make things much easier for the Lakers so the defense isn't in scramble mode, and where Denver's open shooters can hurt us. On offense, Fisher has to start knocking down some shots, especially from three-point range.
SG: Kobe Bryant vs Dahntay Jones
Dahntay Jones will have a totally different task in this series. In the first series, he did an excellent job stopping Chris Paul. His size and physicalness absolutely took Paul out of his game. Against our Mamba, it's a totally new animal. He's going to deal with Kobe, who's taller than him, who's just as physical, and he has a totally different mindset than Paul. This isn't Dallas anymore for him, Jones' break of guarding Antonie Wright, Gerald Green and Jason Terry is over. I think Jones will be an irritant to Kobe, but I can't see that doing anything but firing up Bryant. In the second half when Kobe turns on the jets, I think the Nuggets are going to be in big trouble with this match-up, especially when JR Smith is on the floor.
When Kobe's guarding Jones, he'll probably play his "one man zone" type of defense. Jones isn't the greatest outside shooter, but he can knock down the odd jumper. As far as shooting ability, he's a little bit better than Ronnie Brewer in the Utah series. However, Jones will drive the basket and attack when given an opportunity. He absolutely crammed it over Erick Dampier's head, and with his athleticism, he's certainly capable of doing that throughout the series.
SF: Trevor Ariza vs Carmelo Anthony
This is definitely not the best match-up for the Lakers. Carmelo Anthony has been working the mid-post a lot in the playoffs. Whenever he took Josh Howard into the post, he usually scored with an array of moves. Trevor Ariza is pretty much the same build as Josh Howard so I see the exact same thing happening. Defensively, Luke Walton would probably be the better match-up. I anticipate Luke getting extended minutes in this series. When it comes to Los Angeles on offense, I imagine that Carmelo will give Trevor the shot. Melo, while deceptively quick, certainly doesn't have the foot speed that Ariza has. Trevor is going to have to knock down some shots early and then hopefully he can use the pump fake effectively and take Melo off the dribble. On defense, Ariza is just going to have to body him up and hopefully Melo settles for the outside jumper, because if Anthony takes him into the post, I don't think Trevor will see much time on the court. This could be the series where I see Vujacic emerging and the Lakers going with Kobe at the three.
PF: Pau Gasol vs Kenyon Martin
Quietly and while being very under-appreciated, Martin is one of the best post defenders in the league. He's got a strong body and I don't think Pau will be able to back him down. Like when he had success against Houston, Pau is going to have to face up and stay on the move offensively. K-Mart is not long enough to contest Gasol's mid-range jumpshot, and he's not tall enough to defend his hook shot should Pau get early post position. Also, Gasol usually gets most of his points against Denver off offensive rebound opportunities. Gasol usually volleyballs the basketball around and hurts Denver on the offensive glass. While on defense, Pau must box out and keep Martin off the boards. Even after the knee surgeries, Martin can still get up and finish with the best of them and he's one of the best "garbage men" around the hoop. Also, K-Mart has this very unorthodox running, flip shot from 5-15 feet. It's very weird, but he knocks it down at a pretty good clip.
C: Andrew Bynum vs Nene
Well, Drew will be much happier. He doesn't have to deal with "small ball lineups and little point guards coming down the lane," as he explains it. Nene is a big and tall body, so I imagine Drew will feel a little more comfortable. While on defense, Drew has to watch for Nene's 10-15 foot jump shot. He'll catch the ball in a post up and he's just as likely to shoot as he is to take it off the dribble. Drew's going to have to have quick feet against Nene. Boxing out, keeping him off the boards is a must as well. On offense, Drew doesn't have as many post up touches as he had before the injury. He'll have to attack Nene, and use his drop-step move and his counter moves to hold Nene's aggressiveness. When Chris "Birdman" Andersen checks in and he's defending Bynum or Gasol, we have to attack him. Birdman is one of the best weak-side shot blocking big guys in the league, but his post defense is suspect against bigger players.
The Benches
In my opinion, this is one of the biggest keys to the game. At the end of the series, I imagine the guys that have the biggest effect off the bench for the Lakers will be; Lamar Odom, Shannon Brown and Luke Walton, with the possibility for Vujacic to get in on the act too. Jordan Farmar was perfect for Houston defending and attacking Aaron Brooks. Brooks' size allowed Jordan to be more of a traditional point guard, seeing over the defense and creating for others off the dribble. In this case and against Chauncey Billups and Anthony Carter, Shannon Brown is the better match-up. He's much more physical and he has the size to guard Billups. Luke's defense on Carmelo Anthony is going to be key, and Odom is the X-Factor whether he's coming off the bench or starting. For this series, he's going to be best coming off the bench and pushing the tempo with the second unit. I've always said, whenever the bench is at their best, Odom is the engine. With his ball handling ability, he allows every other player (Vujacic, Farmar, Brown) to fall back into what they do best.
When the Lakers second unit is on defense, they're going to be squaring up with the best bench in the playoffs and pretty much all season. JR Smith has always hurt us (last year's playoffs, he was their only bright spot), Chris Andersen can change the game in a matter of minutes, Anthony Carter is the steady, veteran presence, and don't forget about Linas Kleiza. He's hurt us so much in past years, exploding for many 20+ point games against us. He's fallen off the radar a little bit (14.5 MPG), but if he's going to explode against any team, it's most likely going to be against us.
Final Keys:
The main keys to getting the next four wins and moving into the NBA Finals are the following.
1- Stopping Denver's Energy Bursts: Denver is a killer in spurts. They'll bait you along and get you playing a "boring" type game and then all of a sudden, they'll turn it into a rout. It usually feeds off a JR Smith explosion or a Chris Andersen block or dunk off a garbage play. Carmelo Anthony also has provided scoring explosions. Denver feeds off momentum changing plays.
2- Full 100% Effort, Defensively: Getting off to a quick start, not only offensively, but more importantly defensively is another important factor. We can't afford to come out lackadaisical like we did against Houston. We're going to need Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol to plug the lanes and we're going to need to rotate and get a hand in shooter's faces. There will be absolutely no excuse for coming out soft against the Nuggets. Inside-out, smart, basketball is what it's going to take to beat Denver.
3- Rebounding: Offensive rebounding and more importantly, defensive rebounding is going to be a key. When we've manhandled Denver, we usually had good games on the offensive glass. If we can get offensive rebounds and slow the game down a little bit, Denver's going to have a tough time beating us. Also, we can't allow Birdman, Martin, Nene to get second shot opportunities, because when they do, it's usually a momentum changer with a thunderous dunk or wide open three-point shot.
4- Forcing The Nuggets Out of What They Do: In my opinion, one of the keys to the game. We really have to understand what each player does not do well, and force them to it. Someone like Vujacic, for example, could be extremely useful getting under the skin of JR Smith and forcing them to their old habits, pre-Chauncey. Slow down the tempo of the game and do not let Denver get into a run and gun game. When we have the opportunity, get out on the break, finish the play, get back on defense. Defense is without a doubt the key to this series.
Prediction:
We match up much better with this team. If this team had an Aaron Brooks type player, they'd murder us and I wouldn't think twice about it. But they don't. I think Chauncey's leadership and Denver's maturity, as well as their X-Factors, will make this a very interesting series. In the end, I think we have the biggest advantage and that's Kobe Bryant and the length of Pau Gasol. This definitely will not be easy.
Lakers win in a tough 6 game series.
Before you even get to his on-court ability or how much he took the hearts out of us when he was in Detroit, you have to look at the intangibles that he brings. Before his arrival, the Nuggets were a juggernaut and that wasn't the best fit for them. George Karl has stressed defense since he came to Denver, but he never had a player to buy in and allow the rest of the team to follow his lead. He has that now with Billups and that's where his accountability, defense, and professionalism comes into play.
However, the most important factor to his arrival is his direction. Here's a player who's been to a Conference Final for now the seventh-straight year. Before he landed in Denver, the Nuggets would have been content with a first round win. After that happened this year, Chauncey said that he thought it was good for the franchise, but he has bigger things to accomplish. With his maturity and direction, the rest of the team has followed that approach. Now, with the juggernaut they were formerly, Denver has taken all that talent they previously had and put it in line.
Denver has such a similar feel that the Lakers do. They're the classic Western Conference, push the ball, play-defense-good-enough-to-win, team. They have an excellent, rowdy home court and are extremely tough to beat when everything is clicking for them. This brings me to Key Number 1. The Lakers have to force the Nuggets out of their comfort zone, and avoid the momentum swings that Denver will produce. The Lakers match up very good with this team as opposed to Houston. The Rockets reminded me of a grind it out, Eastern Conference team. We're getting a whole different type of attitude here. They'll try to attack us right from the get-go, and it's up to us to respond and hit them right back.
-------------------------------------------------------------
PG: Derek Fisher vs Chauncey Billups
Obviously, Fish struggled last series. Clearly, Aaron Brooks' style is the type of style that the Lakers have severe problems defending. Our pick and roll defense is horrible against little guards, and Brooks used his speed to beat the angles and get to the basket. Chauncey is much more methodical in his approach, and that will probably be a welcome sign to Derek. Of course, Derek and Gary Payton were also the point guards back in 2004 - and he still murdered us. Now that both are five years older and now that both have lost a couple gears (Fish more so than Chauncey), this will be a different type of match-up. I don't think Derek will have too much to worry about on defense. He can't rotate off Chauncey because he's a dead-eye shooter from distance. One area I think that could possibly hurt is, is Billups' post-up game. If Derek can body him up and force him off the block, this will make things much easier for the Lakers so the defense isn't in scramble mode, and where Denver's open shooters can hurt us. On offense, Fisher has to start knocking down some shots, especially from three-point range.
SG: Kobe Bryant vs Dahntay Jones
Dahntay Jones will have a totally different task in this series. In the first series, he did an excellent job stopping Chris Paul. His size and physicalness absolutely took Paul out of his game. Against our Mamba, it's a totally new animal. He's going to deal with Kobe, who's taller than him, who's just as physical, and he has a totally different mindset than Paul. This isn't Dallas anymore for him, Jones' break of guarding Antonie Wright, Gerald Green and Jason Terry is over. I think Jones will be an irritant to Kobe, but I can't see that doing anything but firing up Bryant. In the second half when Kobe turns on the jets, I think the Nuggets are going to be in big trouble with this match-up, especially when JR Smith is on the floor.
When Kobe's guarding Jones, he'll probably play his "one man zone" type of defense. Jones isn't the greatest outside shooter, but he can knock down the odd jumper. As far as shooting ability, he's a little bit better than Ronnie Brewer in the Utah series. However, Jones will drive the basket and attack when given an opportunity. He absolutely crammed it over Erick Dampier's head, and with his athleticism, he's certainly capable of doing that throughout the series.
SF: Trevor Ariza vs Carmelo Anthony
This is definitely not the best match-up for the Lakers. Carmelo Anthony has been working the mid-post a lot in the playoffs. Whenever he took Josh Howard into the post, he usually scored with an array of moves. Trevor Ariza is pretty much the same build as Josh Howard so I see the exact same thing happening. Defensively, Luke Walton would probably be the better match-up. I anticipate Luke getting extended minutes in this series. When it comes to Los Angeles on offense, I imagine that Carmelo will give Trevor the shot. Melo, while deceptively quick, certainly doesn't have the foot speed that Ariza has. Trevor is going to have to knock down some shots early and then hopefully he can use the pump fake effectively and take Melo off the dribble. On defense, Ariza is just going to have to body him up and hopefully Melo settles for the outside jumper, because if Anthony takes him into the post, I don't think Trevor will see much time on the court. This could be the series where I see Vujacic emerging and the Lakers going with Kobe at the three.
PF: Pau Gasol vs Kenyon Martin
Quietly and while being very under-appreciated, Martin is one of the best post defenders in the league. He's got a strong body and I don't think Pau will be able to back him down. Like when he had success against Houston, Pau is going to have to face up and stay on the move offensively. K-Mart is not long enough to contest Gasol's mid-range jumpshot, and he's not tall enough to defend his hook shot should Pau get early post position. Also, Gasol usually gets most of his points against Denver off offensive rebound opportunities. Gasol usually volleyballs the basketball around and hurts Denver on the offensive glass. While on defense, Pau must box out and keep Martin off the boards. Even after the knee surgeries, Martin can still get up and finish with the best of them and he's one of the best "garbage men" around the hoop. Also, K-Mart has this very unorthodox running, flip shot from 5-15 feet. It's very weird, but he knocks it down at a pretty good clip.
C: Andrew Bynum vs Nene
Well, Drew will be much happier. He doesn't have to deal with "small ball lineups and little point guards coming down the lane," as he explains it. Nene is a big and tall body, so I imagine Drew will feel a little more comfortable. While on defense, Drew has to watch for Nene's 10-15 foot jump shot. He'll catch the ball in a post up and he's just as likely to shoot as he is to take it off the dribble. Drew's going to have to have quick feet against Nene. Boxing out, keeping him off the boards is a must as well. On offense, Drew doesn't have as many post up touches as he had before the injury. He'll have to attack Nene, and use his drop-step move and his counter moves to hold Nene's aggressiveness. When Chris "Birdman" Andersen checks in and he's defending Bynum or Gasol, we have to attack him. Birdman is one of the best weak-side shot blocking big guys in the league, but his post defense is suspect against bigger players.
The Benches
In my opinion, this is one of the biggest keys to the game. At the end of the series, I imagine the guys that have the biggest effect off the bench for the Lakers will be; Lamar Odom, Shannon Brown and Luke Walton, with the possibility for Vujacic to get in on the act too. Jordan Farmar was perfect for Houston defending and attacking Aaron Brooks. Brooks' size allowed Jordan to be more of a traditional point guard, seeing over the defense and creating for others off the dribble. In this case and against Chauncey Billups and Anthony Carter, Shannon Brown is the better match-up. He's much more physical and he has the size to guard Billups. Luke's defense on Carmelo Anthony is going to be key, and Odom is the X-Factor whether he's coming off the bench or starting. For this series, he's going to be best coming off the bench and pushing the tempo with the second unit. I've always said, whenever the bench is at their best, Odom is the engine. With his ball handling ability, he allows every other player (Vujacic, Farmar, Brown) to fall back into what they do best.
When the Lakers second unit is on defense, they're going to be squaring up with the best bench in the playoffs and pretty much all season. JR Smith has always hurt us (last year's playoffs, he was their only bright spot), Chris Andersen can change the game in a matter of minutes, Anthony Carter is the steady, veteran presence, and don't forget about Linas Kleiza. He's hurt us so much in past years, exploding for many 20+ point games against us. He's fallen off the radar a little bit (14.5 MPG), but if he's going to explode against any team, it's most likely going to be against us.
Final Keys:
The main keys to getting the next four wins and moving into the NBA Finals are the following.
1- Stopping Denver's Energy Bursts: Denver is a killer in spurts. They'll bait you along and get you playing a "boring" type game and then all of a sudden, they'll turn it into a rout. It usually feeds off a JR Smith explosion or a Chris Andersen block or dunk off a garbage play. Carmelo Anthony also has provided scoring explosions. Denver feeds off momentum changing plays.
2- Full 100% Effort, Defensively: Getting off to a quick start, not only offensively, but more importantly defensively is another important factor. We can't afford to come out lackadaisical like we did against Houston. We're going to need Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol to plug the lanes and we're going to need to rotate and get a hand in shooter's faces. There will be absolutely no excuse for coming out soft against the Nuggets. Inside-out, smart, basketball is what it's going to take to beat Denver.
3- Rebounding: Offensive rebounding and more importantly, defensive rebounding is going to be a key. When we've manhandled Denver, we usually had good games on the offensive glass. If we can get offensive rebounds and slow the game down a little bit, Denver's going to have a tough time beating us. Also, we can't allow Birdman, Martin, Nene to get second shot opportunities, because when they do, it's usually a momentum changer with a thunderous dunk or wide open three-point shot.
4- Forcing The Nuggets Out of What They Do: In my opinion, one of the keys to the game. We really have to understand what each player does not do well, and force them to it. Someone like Vujacic, for example, could be extremely useful getting under the skin of JR Smith and forcing them to their old habits, pre-Chauncey. Slow down the tempo of the game and do not let Denver get into a run and gun game. When we have the opportunity, get out on the break, finish the play, get back on defense. Defense is without a doubt the key to this series.
Prediction:
We match up much better with this team. If this team had an Aaron Brooks type player, they'd murder us and I wouldn't think twice about it. But they don't. I think Chauncey's leadership and Denver's maturity, as well as their X-Factors, will make this a very interesting series. In the end, I think we have the biggest advantage and that's Kobe Bryant and the length of Pau Gasol. This definitely will not be easy.
Lakers win in a tough 6 game series.
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