Hawks All-In Win-Now Blockbuster

[Wolveswin]

Trade #1:: Draft Day
Jazz Trade:
Markkanen + Kessler + #29 + Future 1sts as needed
FOR
#1 + Bufkin + Capela (mentor Sarr)
Why= Ainge gets his one shinny object #1 overall for Markkanen. Sarr | Hendricks | George | Bufkin | #10 (SF Williams or Holland or ?) plus a tank 2025 (and multiple 2025 1sts) is an exciting full rebuild in Utah.

Hawks take a chance re-signing Markkanen but confident on a playoff bound team and big money being enough to retain.

Trade #2:: New League Year
Suns Trade:
Booker + Filler (Allen or Little or ? into Hawks TPE)
FOR
Trae Young + Jalen Johnson + Future 1sts as needed
Why= Hawks make a decision on Murray v. Young and upgrade to Booker. Suns trade native Son for young true PG Trae, Jalen who fits well with KD and roster reshuffle after disappointing Rd1 sweep.

All-In Hawks::
Okongwu or Kessler (battle for starting C)
Markkanen
Hunter
Booker | BB
Murray

Add some vets, re-sign Bey?, full MLE and Hawks are one of top 5 teams in East for sure.

[MotownMadness]

Nice team for Atlanta but i doubt Phx would move Booker

[jazzfan1971]

I'm not that intrigued by Sarr, so this is an easy pass for me.

[Chinook]

I think a lot of Jazz fans would prefer the Mark to the first pick. I think this is a bad deal for Atlanta. They should focus on adding long-term talent. Lottery luck meant they basically got to "tank" for free. Pick between Young and Murray and build a team around whomever you pick, Johnson and the first-overall pick. If Synder doesn't think he can do that, move on from him. Use the return from the other guard to shore up the team and maybe add some long-term assets. Use the TE from the Collins deal to acquire more talent or assets.

The Murray trade was a bad idea for them, but they basically should behave like they've never had those picks and not let their loss dictate their policy going forward. They aren't a win-now team and shouldn't act like it. Their best chance of becoming one is hitting on their pick and saving cap space.

[giberish]

I feel like Lauri has more trade value than the #1 pick this year, and Kessler still has some as well. Utah certainly wouldn't be adding extra 1sts to such a deal and probably doesn't make it even without them.

The second deal is interesting though very unlikely to ever get considered. Phoenix is a rare team that could be upgraded with a quality for quantity deal and Johnson is a non-trivial addition for them.

[Wolveswin]

I feel like Lauri has more trade value than the #1 pick this year, and Kessler still has some as well. Utah certainly wouldn't be adding extra 1sts to such a deal and probably doesn't make it even without them.

Markkanen had more contract to start the year. Very helpful when discussing value.

Bufkin for Kessler is tasters choice. Don’t forget that inclusion. Kessler probably more value, but Capela easily closes that value gap (Ainge can parlay Capela for asset or keep as Sarr mentor).

[Karmaloop]

I feel like Lauri has more trade value than the #1 pick this year, and Kessler still has some as well. Utah certainly wouldn't be adding extra 1sts to such a deal and probably doesn't make it even without them.

It's starting to feel like the board is overvaluing Lauri, but I'm not sure the Jazz are the ones needing to add assets. Lauri without an extension in place is a risk of walking as a FA in a year, so I don't think the Hawks would even entertain the pick for Lauri straight up without some sort of extension in place. And an extension pays Lauri closer to fair market value, and that's where a LOT of Lauri's value comes from the fact that he's paid below-market value. Only problem is it's only for 1 more year. I guess the only question is how do you value the #1 overall pick? If you think it's a future high-end role player, Lauri is significantly more valuable than that pick. If you think they can be a #2 on a championship or better, the pick is more valuable. The Kessler/Capela swap doesn't make sense either since Utah would prefer the cheaper (and younger) option while Atlanta would prefer the more ready player.

[Wolveswin]

I think a lot of Jazz fans would prefer the Mark to the first pick. I think this is a bad deal for Atlanta. They should focus on adding long-term talent. Lottery luck meant they basically got to "tank" for free. Pick between Young and Murray and build a team around whomever you pick, Johnson and the first-overall pick. If Synder doesn't think he can do that, move on from him. Use the return from the other guard to shore up the team and maybe add some long-term assets. Use the TE from the Collins deal to acquire more talent or assets.

Problem with that is Sarr won’t contribute much to winning 24/25 in Atlanta. Raw big men take tons of time in incubator. Hawks are deep at bigman enough to let Sarr sit a ton.

So if Hawks want to turn their good luck into more wins around Trae or Murray (assume moving one) trading the #1 pick is only way to accomplish that.

GSW comes to mind. They had #2 overall (and sexy owed Wolves unprotected 1st the next year) - sat on both vs. trading for win-now around Curry/Klay/Green. Doesn’t mean same outcome for Sarr/Hawks but really good cautionary tale.

[Texas Chuck]

I don't think Utah owes future picks but if you take that out, I don't think the value in deal 1 is too far off. Now I think in reality Atlanta would have to add value to get Utah to turn loose of Markannen, but I think this is a reasonable offer, just not one they seem inclined to take.

But if I could pull off 1 I'd absolutely just skip 2. I don't see anyway Booker helps more than Trae+Johnson plus you are asking Atlanta to punt more assets.

So my advice would be take some of the incentive being sent to Phoenix and give it to Utah and overpay if you feel strongly Markannen is the guy(and you can keep him). Then don't do the Suns portion of this.

IF you feel you can't keep Trae/Murray and choose Murray for whatever reason, you can find a Trae deal that makes more sense.

[Wolveswin]

I feel like Lauri has more trade value than the #1 pick this year, and Kessler still has some as well. Utah certainly wouldn't be adding extra 1sts to such a deal and probably doesn't make it even without them.

It's starting to feel like the board is overvaluing Lauri, but I'm not sure the Jazz are the ones needing to add assets. Lauri without an extension in place is a risk of walking as a FA in a year, so I don't think the Hawks would even entertain the pick for Lauri straight up without some sort of extension in place. And an extension pays Lauri closer to fair market value, and that's where a LOT of Lauri's value comes from the fact that he's paid below-market value. Only problem is it's only for 1 more year. I guess the only question is how do you value the #1 overall pick? If you think it's a future high-end role player, Lauri is significantly more valuable than that pick. If you think they can be a #2 on a championship or better, the pick is more valuable. The Kessler/Capela swap doesn't make sense either since Utah would prefer the cheaper (and younger) option while Atlanta would prefer the more ready player.

The reason for Kessler | Capela swap is exactly what you explained in your first paragraph. Markkanen is expiring. Worst case if Hawks lose Markkanen, they have Kessler, #29, and if they draw an owed 1st from Ainge. Plus Capela isn’t in Hawks long term plan.

[Ball4life32]

I think a lot of Jazz fans would prefer the Mark to the first pick. I think this is a bad deal for Atlanta. They should focus on adding long-term talent. Lottery luck meant they basically got to "tank" for free. Pick between Young and Murray and build a team around whomever you pick, Johnson and the first-overall pick. If Synder doesn't think he can do that, move on from him. Use the return from the other guard to shore up the team and maybe add some long-term assets. Use the TE from the Collins deal to acquire more talent or assets.

Problem with that is Sarr won’t contribute much to winning 24/25 in Atlanta. Raw big men take tons of time in incubator. Hawks are deep at bigman enough to let Sarr sit a ton.

So if Hawks want to turn their good luck into more wins around Trae or Murray (assume moving one) trading the #1 pick is only way to accomplish that.

GSW comes to mind. They had #2 overall (and sexy owed Wolves unprotected 1st the next year) - sat on both vs. trading for win-now around Curry/Klay/Green. Doesn’t mean same outcome for Sarr/Hawks but really good cautionary tale.

Many have said Sarr is raw offensively but not defensively... were also seeing multiple rookie bigs make big impacts defensively. Hawks don't need him be a scorer day 1 at least as long as they keep Trae. 7th best offense, 29th best defense when he went down. If he's that good defensively, which I am not saying he is or isn't, I would think he starts day 1 if they pick him.

[brackdan70]

I think ATL needs to add value for both trades.
Markannen for Capela, #1, filler seems ok. Is that enough for Utah to pull the trigger. This is the only draft I recall where number one pick doesn’t excite me.

[Karmaloop]

The reason for Kessler | Capela swap is exactly what you explained in your first paragraph. Markkanen is expiring. Worst case if Hawks lose Markkanen, they have Kessler, #29, and if they draw an owed 1st from Ainge. Plus Capela isn’t in Hawks long term plan.

And as I mentioned, I don't think the Hawks even consider moving the pick straight-up for Lauri without some sort of extension in place. SO you're trading #1 for Markkanen (with an extension) and working from there. That pick isn't on the table for a non-extended Lauri IMO.

[jayjaysee]

If I’m getting Lauri, I don’t pay all that to get Booker..

[giberish]

I feel like Lauri has more trade value than the #1 pick this year, and Kessler still has some as well. Utah certainly wouldn't be adding extra 1sts to such a deal and probably doesn't make it even without them.

Markkanen had more contract to start the year. Very helpful when discussing value.

Bufkin for Kessler is tasters choice. Don’t forget that inclusion. Kessler probably more value, but Capela easily closes that value gap (Ainge can parlay Capela for asset or keep as Sarr mentor).

Utah (almost) certainly can raise and extend Markkanen so they really have no incentive to trade him at a discounted 1 season + major flight risk value. Presumably a team trading for him will either have an understanding with him/his agent or be generally confident in keeping him.

I feel like the #1 pick this year is seen like a pick in the #6-10 range most years. While there are some elite players in that range there are also a lot of future nobodies. Perhaps even a bit less value as the player will get the #1 overall pick salary despite the lower expectations of quality. IMO players traded for a pick in that range tend to be either older than Markkanen or a bit lower in quality.

[Wolveswin]

I feel like Lauri has more trade value than the #1 pick this year, and Kessler still has some as well. Utah certainly wouldn't be adding extra 1sts to such a deal and probably doesn't make it even without them.

Markkanen had more contract to start the year. Very helpful when discussing value.

Bufkin for Kessler is tasters choice. Don’t forget that inclusion. Kessler probably more value, but Capela easily closes that value gap (Ainge can parlay Capela for asset or keep as Sarr mentor).

Utah (almost) certainly can raise and extend Markkanen so they really have no incentive to trade him at a discounted 1 season + major flight risk value. Presumably a team trading for him will either have an understanding with him/his agent or be generally confident in keeping him.

I feel like the #1 pick this year is seen like a pick in the #6-10 range most years. While there are some elite players in that range there are also a lot of future nobodies. Perhaps even a bit less value as the player will get the #1 overall pick salary despite the lower expectations of quality. IMO players traded for a pick in that range tend to be either older than Markkanen or a bit lower in quality.

Markkanen raise and extension then trade is ideal in theory. But rules must dictate that means Markkanen can’t be traded for 2024 draft pick (timing of new contract and any trade restriction time frame - someone who knows CBA can chime in).

[Geaux_Hawks]

I think a lot of Jazz fans would prefer the Mark to the first pick. I think this is a bad deal for Atlanta. They should focus on adding long-term talent. Lottery luck meant they basically got to "tank" for free. Pick between Young and Murray and build a team around whomever you pick, Johnson and the first-overall pick. If Synder doesn't think he can do that, move on from him. Use the return from the other guard to shore up the team and maybe add some long-term assets. Use the TE from the Collins deal to acquire more talent or assets.

Problem with that is Sarr won’t contribute much to winning 24/25 in Atlanta. Raw big men take tons of time in incubator. Hawks are deep at bigman enough to let Sarr sit a ton.

So if Hawks want to turn their good luck into more wins around Trae or Murray (assume moving one) trading the #1 pick is only way to accomplish that.

GSW comes to mind. They had #2 overall (and sexy owed Wolves unprotected 1st the next year) - sat on both vs. trading for win-now around Curry/Klay/Green. Doesn’t mean same outcome for Sarr/Hawks but really good cautionary tale.

I think you're off here. Sarr wouldn't be in a position to where he needs to average a 20 point double double. His defensive upside on the weak side would give us plenty of impact. Whatever he gives us offensively would just be icing on the cake.

If Trae is indeed the one we keep, i'm sure he can feed Sarr lobs the same way he did for Capela. We start seeing even more gains with every shot Sarr can make outside of the painted area. Again, this doesn't mean he's got to be a 40% 3 point shooter.

The GSW piece is much different than ours. GSW had a much more capable team than we do currently. Right now, we're still trying to figure out what pieces to keep, and what to scrap for better parts.

Someone mentioned it somewhere before, but we're more in line with the Mavs last year, than the GSW reference used. Mavs didn't have the #1 pick of course, but essentially they moved some pieces around between the deadline last year, and the start of the NBA season.

[azuresou1]

Putting aside trade 1 for a second:

Trade 2 is trash for Atlanta. Trae + Jalen >> Booker, much less adding picks on top