Value of the #1 pick

[penbeast0]

I think you are missing the confidence point. If you have confidence in your scouting department, you might trade the 1st pick for a solid young player or two lower players . . . .if that's the move your scouting department says is the right one. I just am not willing to categorically say I wouldn't trade Avdija for the #1 pick straight up; I don't have enough confidence in my OWN scouting capacity or I have enough in my evaluation of Deni Avdija to be willing to listen to those who are better judges of incoming talent than I am.

[Geaux_Hawks]

Sarr is years and years away so the Hawks are probably taking Risacher as he has a really low ceiling but can play right now. Sarr is just too awful at offense to play. He was really bad at pick and roll scoring last year and couldn't get minutes in a so-so league. Risacher is the best player on a good team in France.

If we're using the pick to draft someone, and keeping Trae, then for us the best option is to go with the highest potential ceiling player. Not the high floor, low ceiling player. In that position, we might as well swing for the fences because we won't see another pick this high for at least 3 years.

I'd rather go down with the ship knowing we tried to find a high impact player in the draft than knowing we settled for a few extra wins. I think it's more likely that Sarr at least provides enough defensive impact that helps us win games than Risacher overall.

[Texas Chuck]

Do you remember in Physics class when the teacher would give you an object and show you how friction would help you find the balancing point of the object by holding it at the edges with your index fingers and sliding them toward the middle? 2 and 26 is like the unmoved fingers on the ruler. Where do you think the balancing point is to go from 2 to 1? 14? 16? I am curious. I assume most teams would rather 2 and 14 in this draft than 1. Most drafts teams would leap at the opportunity.

If I have any confidence in my scouting department at all I'm not keeping 14 over getting my guy.

So you would never trade the 1st pick? I am not asking sarcastically. You think that the risk of not picking first is just too high?

No, I think this year is a reasonable year to trade it even. But pick 26 or 14 isn't too much for me to give up to move to get it if I have a guy identified.

[Godaddycurse]

If I have any confidence in my scouting department at all I'm not keeping 14 over getting my guy.

So you would never trade the 1st pick? I am not asking sarcastically. You think that the risk of not picking first is just too high?

No, I think this year is a reasonable year to trade it even. But pick 26 or 14 isn't too much for me to give up to move to get it if I have a guy identified.

Would you trade a future ie 2025 1st in a stronger draft year to move up?

[Texas Chuck]

So you would never trade the 1st pick? I am not asking sarcastically. You think that the risk of not picking first is just too high?

No, I think this year is a reasonable year to trade it even. But pick 26 or 14 isn't too much for me to give up to move to get it if I have a guy identified.

Would you trade a future ie 2025 1st in a stronger draft year to move up?

Depends on how I feel about the player. But with at least top 4 protections on it, in theory sure.

[SkyHook]

If you're trusting your scouting department, are you assuming that there's a consensus internally on who the pick should be 100% of the time? I imagine that disagreement among decision influencers is more commonplace. The most famous instance of verbalized draft unanimity I can recall was, "Stauskas, Stauskas, Stauskas". I bet that there were some in that meeting who wish that they had voiced what they truly thought.

This draft will likely produce all-NBA talent from somewhere within its ranks. Maybe they come from picks 15 & 27 and the first ten picks produce one solid player like in 2013—maybe the closest parallel to this draft.

[jbk1234]

The very idea that there's a your guy in the draft pressupposes that the scouting department is really high on at least one guy in the draft (normally, but not always true) and that there's at least some consensus among the scouting department that player X is that guy.

I just don't think every draft is like that.

[shrink]

But its clear I am shockingly alone on preferring choice 1 over choice 2 and 26 in this draft which is cool. I'm happy to stand over here by myself.

I’m with Chuck.

At this moment, we don’t know who is the best choice, but that certainly could change between now and the draft. That’s what the whole process of workouts and interviews is meant to determine. So trading the #26 for the chance to get a player that may emerge seems like a price I would pay.

And on top of that, even if we still don’t even have a PREFERENCE on draft day, we still know that the #1 pick is more valuable than the #2. The #1 pick means more marketing, ticket sales, and merchandise for casual fans. Ever since the ATL won’t he lottery, each of the many national stories about the draft has the Hawks in the first paragraph. They will also get that publicity throughout the summer, and articles on new comers, will run right up to October.

I would definitely trade 2+26 for 1.

[Whole Truth]

What about the monetary factor ? The #1 pick to a team near or over the tax has a 12m price tag. Atlanta was not a tanking team, they lucked into that price tag.

If I'm Atlanta & have a player I know will be there at 2 or lower, there would be some value to the picks price point

[TGW]

But its clear I am shockingly alone on preferring choice 1 over choice 2 and 26 in this draft which is cool. I'm happy to stand over here by myself.

I’m with Chuck.

At this moment, we don’t know who is the best choice, but that certainly could change between now and the draft. That’s what the whole process of workouts and interviews is meant to determine. So trading the #26 for the chance to get a player that may emerge seems like a price I would pay.

And on top of that, even if we still don’t even have a PREFERENCE on draft day, we still know that the #1 pick is more valuable than the #2. The #1 pick means more marketing, ticket sales, and merchandise for casual fans. Ever since the ATL won’t he lottery, each of the many national stories about the draft has the Hawks in the first paragraph. They will also get that publicity throughout the summer, and articles on new comers, will run right up to October.

I would definitely trade 2+26 for 1.

Nope, not in this draft. There is no consensus #1. Sure, the 2023 draft is a no brainer. In this years draft, no chance.

[nate33]

But its clear I am shockingly alone on preferring choice 1 over choice 2 and 26 in this draft which is cool. I'm happy to stand over here by myself.

I’m with Chuck.

At this moment, we don’t know who is the best choice, but that certainly could change between now and the draft. That’s what the whole process of workouts and interviews is meant to determine. So trading the #26 for the chance to get a player that may emerge seems like a price I would pay.

And on top of that, even if we still don’t even have a PREFERENCE on draft day, we still know that the #1 pick is more valuable than the #2. The #1 pick means more marketing, ticket sales, and merchandise for casual fans. Ever since the ATL won’t he lottery, each of the many national stories about the draft has the Hawks in the first paragraph. They will also get that publicity throughout the summer, and articles on new comers, will run right up to October.

I would definitely trade 2+26 for 1.

I'm not saying either of you are wrong. It's clearly a matter of opinion. But I am saying that the value disparity between #1 and #2 differs a great deal from draft to draft, and in this draft, the value disparity is about as small as it gets because there is so little consensus agreement on who's the best player in the draft.

But if anyone else thinks like you do and believes that a pick at the very top of this draft has a lot more value than a pick a few slots lower, please have your GM give the Wizards a call. I'd love to see my Wiz trade down from #2 to something in the #4-8 range while picking up a quality future 1st in the process.