Ingram for Markannen

[donato]

Pels need to trade both Ingram AND CJ.

[lordjeff05]

What if Pels keep Ingram, take McCullom for a good-fitting Center, and starts Murphy in CJ's place? Think that's the way this is headed. They avoid selling low on Ingram, take out 2 defensive weak links (CJ, JV) and distribute those shots to increased usage for Murphy and the rest of the young core. Seems like a good path forward unless they get a great offer for BI.

____/____
Zion/____
Ingram/ Dyson/ Ryan
Trey/ Hawkins
Herb/ Jose

The Pels closed a late season game against the Clippers where they subbed CJ for Nance, and it looked great. I was convinced that lineup was the path to a competitive team in the playoffs. I still love BI and his potential but I'm just skeptical about his willingness to change his shot diet on this version of the Pels. I think he would potentially change on another team especially as hes fighting for that extension.

I don't think you can start BI and Z together with a conventional center, and the chances of getting a center good and aggressive enough from 3 without trading BI are low. For all of the conversations about defensive issues, the team was really pretty good on defense throughout the year even with subpar defenders on the court.

[lordjeff05]

With Daniels, the defense was great not just because Daniels is better than CJ as an individual defender. It was better also because with Herb not having to be the primary guard, he was able to roami defensively, where it's arguable that Daniels is the teams best man defender 1-4 & Herb is even better as a help defender. It balanced the rotation defensively & in doing so, the perimeter pressure applied by Herb & Daniels led to more steals, more blks, better rim protection with Jonas on court & more transition offense, no set defenses or zone, playing 4 on 5 in the half court with Daniels should not be effective but it's actually the point I was making about Zion's predictability. Teams will choose who on court they will play off of regardless to take the paint away. Daniels 12% usage rate & 5 APG vs CJ's 25% usage rate & 16 APG, went to an increased usage & 18 APG for Zion at 60% efficiency, where Zion was averaging 8-12 APG sharing the court with BI & CJ 30 APF at 45% efficiency. Offensive overlap & defensive compensation, is why the starters struggled with CJ & in those 10 games Daniels started with Herb. 5 out of the 10 were wins vs teams over 500, while there might be some regression, it wasn't just streaky play.

Where did you find the 2 man D-rating? If it's possible can you post each starters 2 man pairing with Zion. when I see the results I will have a potential explanation, context for the numbers.

Zion & CJ played a lot of their minutes together off the bench against lesser competition in relation to the other starters.

Look I'm a huge fan of Dyson and a believer in his overall game if he can continue to improve his shot and aggression. I'd agree with the assessment that Dyson is the best man defender we have, and having a Dyson play point of attack defense and Herb play help defense could create havoc if both shoot well enough not to tank the offense. However that is still a big "but". Also, I think the lack of shooting was a bigger issue for the starting offense than overlap was. Again when only one guy is shooting enough shots from 3 it just puts a ton of pressure on the offense.

Here's the link for lineup stats:
https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced?CF=GROUP_NAME*E*will&GroupQuantity=2&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612740&dir=D&slug=advanced&sort=MIN

[lordjeff05]

Take your own numbers.

They say the team was better defensively but far better offensively with Daniels who NO's were playing 4 on 5 with in the half court. They were better offensively for 2 reasons, Elite perimeter defense that led to more transition offense & pace. Offensive overlap, usage, where BI & CJ's 30 APG on 45% efficiency, went to Zion increasing his usage & shots to 18 APG from 8-12 at 60% efficiency, Bi becoming a clear #2 in the pecking order.

They say Zion was better defensively with CJ than offensively, when CJ is an offensive player that's supposed to compliment him with spacing. Now how can the team play good defense & have a worse offense with a spacing option over an elite perimeter defender playing 4 on 5 ?

Defense.

With CJ on court the pace slowed, their was less steals, blks, transition offense & defenses were more set. Before we get to Zion averaging more shots at better efficiency with Daniels & the unsustainable offense as you put it. Where with CJ & BI averaging 30 APG at 45% efficiency, Zion was taking 8-12 APG on his usual 60& efficiency most nights, leading to negative court production.

Let's make sure we are on the same page here regarding the argument, because in general we agree on alot of this. First off I don't think CJ should be a long term starter for the squad. Maybe the upcoming year but that's it. Second Dyson and Herb are a fantastic combo defensively but they need to shoot more in order to play them together, even with more transition play and the ball in Zion's hands.

I think our biggest difference in a opinion is about why the starters weren't successful. You think that increased defense and fewer mouths to feed on offense better leverages Zion's play. I think the issues with the offense largely had to do with a lack of spacing, which would best be alleviated with shooting at the 5 spot because it prevents opposing teams from hiding their rim protector as easily. The reason I think this is because generally the defense was pretty good with the starters on the court.

Bringing it back to this trade getting a guy who can shoot at the 5 opens up the floor for Zion, and also puts the ball in his hand as so much of Lauri's game is off the catch.

[Whole Truth]

Let's make sure we are on the same page here regarding the argument, because in general we agree on alot of this. First off I don't think CJ should be a long term starter for the squad. Maybe the upcoming year but that's it. Second Dyson and Herb are a fantastic combo defensively but they need to shoot more in order to play them together, even with more transition play and the ball in Zion's hands.

I think our biggest difference in a opinion is about why the starters weren't successful. You think that increased defense and fewer mouths to feed on offense better leverages Zion's play. I think the issues with the offense largely had to do with a lack of spacing, which would best be alleviated with shooting at the 5 spot because it prevents opposing teams from hiding their rim protector as easily. The reason I think this is because generally the defense was pretty good with the starters on the court.

Bringing it back to this trade getting a guy who can shoot at the 5 opens up the floor for Zion, and also puts the ball in his hand as so much of Lauri's game is off the catch.

Looks like we do agree mostly. Some exceptions.

I think the sooner NO's get off CJ, the better.

I do think spacing is an issue, especially with teams that had lengthy shot blockers like Utah. Where we differ, is in the solution. I think Zion's lack of diversity & predictability is the bigger issue than adding a shooter. NO's had respectable shooting percentages around Zion. Teams chose to take the paint away regardless of Herb shooting 40% on good volume & CJ shooting 42% on volume. Zion's best production came paired with Daniels elite perimeter defense despite playing 4 on 5 on offense. This was at a point Herb was not shooting at a 40% rate either like he was to close the year. So there was only BI on court with CJ out, who's shy in taking 3's as the floor spacer & it produced that +20 rating, with literally, no spacing from shooters but a defensive upgrade. I fully believe elite ball pressure compliments Zion better than elite spacing. Without it an offensive C is not viable, especially without the ability to rebound. Jonas provided a lot of 2nd chance opportunity.

Zion is not a strong rebounder, NO's fans saw what a poor rebounder at the C looks like in Nance's minutes. Teams were getting 3-4 offensive rebound on possessions.

To top it off I think system & Utah's coach has Lauri's value inflated, not that he's not a good player but feel he will regress the minute he's traded. BI & 2 first is not a price I would pay for an offensive fit. Same reason I'm not enamored with NO's wanting Allen either.

I prefer what they're willing to pay for Lauri & put it into Atlanta for Sarr's potential fit, rookie scale & control. It fails, Zion is 23, Murphy is 23, Hawkins is 22, Daniels is 20 & Sarr would be 19 with NO's having their pick & a Lakers pick in 25 that has some lotto projection.

Having said that. I see Hawks mention interest in Lauri, I would flip him to Hawks for the #1 pick, if possible.