Wizards/Pacers

[arusinov]

Here's the story about all trade proposals for Deni this off-season. It's not only about Washington fans which don't agree with deals which value him as a role player but seemingly Wizards as a team too. There's generally problem with trading for player after break-out season, and especially if it's basically break-out half-season, and the guy is 4th year player.

What's happened Wizards' point of view: in 32 games under Keefe Deni averaged 17.7/ 8.6 /3.7 on 60.1 TS%. 21.2 USG%. Basically it was the time that the team finally started proper rebuild and focused on development of young players. So from this point of view Deni first time got chance to be 2nd, and sometimes 1st option - and he's shown a lot promise as efficient scorer and secondary distributor. So Wizards returned to believe in Deni as future 2nd option envisioning player with something like 20 / 9/ 5 averages which scores efficiently.

This is the player Wizards would agree to trade... But other teams aren't ready to give back Wizards value of such player. And the facts of opposite side are quite clear - as it's said above the sample size is not big, so Deni's shooting improvement is not sure real thing, and his left hand while improved still not good enough, and what's about midrange... and even if Deni scored efficiently not like most of those who get numbers on bad teams... Wizards still was horrible team, and it's hard to estimate ability of anyone on such team and so on.

So both positions are clear and understandable - just somewhat... irreconcilable

So all I can add personally as "Deni's stan":
Deni is very athletic player (much more athletic than most people think) which is good finisher. He has very quick first step for 6'9" guy, very strong, has very good vertical. He can bully-ball guy like Randle for and-1. He can dunk on Eubanks or even Giannis. He's elite in open court. He can run p&r as ball handler, can take slower defender (like Zion or Luka you know...) one on one, can post up on smaller guards, shoot step-back 3P, and so on. And he's very good rebounder and can defend 1 - 4.

All in all, I just think that the team (I mean Wizards) can just forget all trade talks, and try to develop him in that 20 / 9/ 5 guy.

[Helsbyte]

Here's the story about all trade proposals for Deni this off-season. It's not only about Washington fans which don't agree with deals which value him as a role player but seemingly Wizards as a team too. There's generally problem with trading for player after break-out season, and especially if it's basically break-out half-season, and the guy is 4th year player.

What's happened Wizards' point of view: in 32 games under Keefe Deni averaged 17.7/ 8.6 /3.7 on 60.1 TS%. 21.2 USG%. Basically it was the time that the team finally started proper rebuild and focused on development of young players. So from this point of view Deni first time got chance to be 2nd, and sometimes 1st option - and he's shown a lot promise as efficient scorer and secondary distributor. So Wizards returned to believe in Deni as future 2nd option envisioning player with something like 20 / 9/ 5 averages which scores efficiently.

This is the player Wizards would agree to trade... But other teams aren't ready to give back Wizards value of such player. And the facts of opposite side are quite clear - as it's said above the sample size is not big, so Deni's shooting improvement is not sure real thing, and his left hand while improved still not good enough, and what's about midrange... and even if Deni scored efficiently not like most of those who get numbers on bad teams... Wizards still was horrible team, and it's hard to estimate ability of anyone on such team and so on.

So both positions are clear and understandable - just somewhat... irreconcilable

So all I can add personally as "Deni's stan":
Deni is very athletic player (much more athletic than most people think) which is good finisher. He has very quick first step for 6'9" guy, very strong, has very good vertical. He can bully-ball guy like Randle for and-1. He can dunk on Eubanks or even Giannis. He's elite in open court. He can run p&r as ball handler, can take slower defender (like Zion or Luka you know...) one on one, can post up on smaller guards, shoot step-back 3P, and so on. And he's very good rebounder and can defend 1 - 4.

All in all, I just think that the team (I mean Wizards) can just forget all trade talks, and try to develop him in that 20 / 9/ 5 guy.

I like Deni as a player but I do not think he is a 2nd or good 3rd option on a contending team. His usage rate would go down which might improve his eff more(maybe not). I believe if you can trade him for higher ceiling players, you should. If you are not raising the teams ceiling then what are you doing?

[nate33]

And finally, Deni is locked into a cheap deal for 4 more years. Even if Mathurin improves so that he is a quality starting guard, he'll also get that much more expensive on his new contract.

And Mathurin is on an even cheaper rookie contract for 2 of those 4 cheap years. The first two years of Mathurin’s next deal could combine for $38.5m total and he and Avdija will have made the exact same money for the next 4 years.

$38.5M total is $17M a year. If Mathurin is only good enough to merit $17M on his next contract in 2026-27, that will mean he is only worth MLE money. Or in other words, he would be considered to be roughly as good as a guy like Grant Williams, Luke Kennard or maybe Max Strus. If the Wizards ended up trading Deni for a guy that was the next Luke Kennard, that would be a disaster.

The fact is, if Mathurin really does pan out to be that #2 offensive scoring option that is actually good enough to convince the Wizards to trade for him, then he will likely cost max or near-max money on his next contract. He would be somewhere in the RJ Barrett ($24M) to Darius Garland ($34M) range adjusted for cap inflation - so maybe $28-38M a year. So, yeah, Deni's contract is a big deal.

[nate33]

I like Deni as a player but I do not think he is a 2nd or good 3rd option on a contending team. His usage rate would go down which might improve his eff more(maybe not). I believe if you can trade him for higher ceiling players, you should. If you are not raising the teams ceiling then what are you doing?

I agree that he is not a second option. A second option can score efficiently against a defense that is actually geared to stop him. I do think Deni will peak out as a third option, and not a fourth option. A third option attacks a rotating defense efficiently and can exploit a mismatch generated by another player. Deni already does that well. He destroys guards in switches, putting them under the basket.

Deni is in the Mikal Bridges tier of offensive player. He can go score 23 points a game for you, but his efficiency will suffer. It's better if he is asked to score 18-20 while still doing all the things he does on defense.

There is a world where he continues to improve his step-back 3 enough where he becomes a legit second-option scorer. He's not there yet, but it's not out of the question. Right now, guys have to back off of him because he is so quick on the drive. It gives him the room to get off the step-back when he wants, but the shot isn't consistent enough as a weapon to use with efficiency.

[Scoot McGroot]

And finally, Deni is locked into a cheap deal for 4 more years. Even if Mathurin improves so that he is a quality starting guard, he'll also get that much more expensive on his new contract.

And Mathurin is on an even cheaper rookie contract for 2 of those 4 cheap years. The first two years of Mathurin’s next deal could combine for $38.5m total and he and Avdija will have made the exact same money for the next 4 years.

$38.5M total is $17M a year. If Mathurin is only good enough to merit $17M on his next contract in 2026-27, that will mean he is only worth MLE money. Or in other words, he would be considered to be roughly as good as a guy like Grant Williams, Luke Kennard or maybe Max Strus. If the Wizards ended up trading Deni for a guy that was the next Luke Kennard, that would be a disaster.

The fact is, if Mathurin really does pan out to be that #2 offensive scoring option that is actually good enough to convince the Wizards to trade for him, then he will likely cost max or near-max money on his next contract. He would be somewhere in the RJ Barrett ($24M) to Darius Garland ($34M) range adjusted for cap inflation - so maybe $28-38M a year. So, yeah, Deni's contract is a big deal.

And Avdija was only good enough to merit $13.75m per year. So what does that matter?

And if Mathurin gets more than $17.5m per year, and is the scoring star he might could be, you’d be really happy to have that, right? And even if he gets $30m a year, he’ll only have cost an extra $21.5m for 4 years. And he’d be under contract another 2-3 years, while Deni will have hit free agency again (as his contract declines, it’s set up to ensure that he doesn’t extend, if he’s any good).

There’s absolutely pluses and minuses to any sort of swap. But Indy absolutely isn’t offering garbage, or underestimating Deni’s value in any way. We’re offering our highest rated prospect/rookie contract player here. He’s a guy that Shams thinks can be a Butler or Mitchell type of a star.

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[patman66]

Don't like it for Wash at all. Coulibaly should be given all the time as a developmental piece with Poole getting the rest of the min.

[Helsbyte]

Don't like it for Wash at all. Coulibaly should be given all the time as a developmental piece with Poole getting the rest of the min.

I have Mathurin and Couliby as either wing positions. They should compliment each other quite well. But Poole is a problem.

[Scoot McGroot]

Don't like it for Wash at all. Coulibaly should be given all the time as a developmental piece with Poole getting the rest of the min.

I have Mathurin and Couliby as either wing positions. They should compliment each other quite well. But Poole is a problem.

Shouldn’t be. He’s clearly shown he needs to come off the bench to be helpful in any way. Otherwise, yeah. Coulibaly and Mathurin seem like they’d be perfect long term pairing at the wings, no?

[patman66]

Don't like it for Wash at all. Coulibaly should be given all the time as a developmental piece with Poole getting the rest of the min.

I have Mathurin and Couliby as either wing positions. They should compliment each other quite well. But Poole is a problem.

Shouldn’t be. He’s clearly shown he needs to come off the bench to be helpful in any way. Otherwise, yeah. Coulibaly and Mathurin seem like they’d be perfect long term pairing at the wings, no?

I think they are better with Avida and Kispert alongside Poole and Coulibaly.