DET/HOU - Do The Rockets want to go Twinning?

[Billl]

Most posters just talk about Ausar’s shooting and I’m not sure how many have actually watched him play. He is already elite on D. Great rebounder. Unless the Pistons are getting a great package back, I’d give him a year or two to develop that shot. If he does, he could be all NBA potential. Most all rookies are risky and if you can get half of your picks to be legit starters, you’re doing good. But giving up on them after the first year doesn’t seem to make much sense.

Without opining on whether Detroit should consider trading Ausar or not...this is a caveat big enough to fly a 747 through for a guy who shot 18% from 3 this year.

This forum has spent the last couple weeks essentially calling Josh Giddey unplayable because of what happened in the Dallas series, and he's a career 31% 3pt shooter.

Fair enough. Nobody is questioning the need for ausar to improve his shot and it may never happen. If it does though? The guy is a lock down defender, freak athlete , good passer, and just brings incredible energy to the court. He does a lot of the things you just can't teach at a very high level. And one thing you can teach at a low level. Given where detroit is in the rebuild, it's pretty obvious why they would wait and see if the shot comes along.

[gswhoops]

Most posters just talk about Ausar’s shooting and I’m not sure how many have actually watched him play. He is already elite on D. Great rebounder. Unless the Pistons are getting a great package back, I’d give him a year or two to develop that shot. If he does, he could be all NBA potential. Most all rookies are risky and if you can get half of your picks to be legit starters, you’re doing good. But giving up on them after the first year doesn’t seem to make much sense.

Without opining on whether Detroit should consider trading Ausar or not...this is a caveat big enough to fly a 747 through for a guy who shot 18% from 3 this year.

This forum has spent the last couple weeks essentially calling Josh Giddey unplayable because of what happened in the Dallas series, and he's a career 31% 3pt shooter.

Fair enough. Nobody is questioning the need for ausar to improve his shot and it may never happen. If it does though? The guy is a lock down defender, freak athlete , good passer, and just brings incredible energy to the court. He does a lot of the things you just can't teach at a very high level. And one thing you can teach at a low level. Given where detroit is in the rebuild, it's pretty obvious why they would wait and see if the shot comes along.

For sure - which is why I wanted to make clear that I'm not really commenting on whether Detroit should trade him or not. He's worth the gamble (which they clearly think as well, otherwise they would not have spent the #5 overall pick on him).

[theBigLip]

Without opining on whether Detroit should consider trading Ausar or not...this is a caveat big enough to fly a 747 through for a guy who shot 18% from 3 this year.

This forum has spent the last couple weeks essentially calling Josh Giddey unplayable because of what happened in the Dallas series, and he's a career 31% 3pt shooter.

Fair enough. Nobody is questioning the need for ausar to improve his shot and it may never happen. If it does though? The guy is a lock down defender, freak athlete , good passer, and just brings incredible energy to the court. He does a lot of the things you just can't teach at a very high level. And one thing you can teach at a low level. Given where detroit is in the rebuild, it's pretty obvious why they would wait and see if the shot comes along.

For sure - which is why I wanted to make clear that I'm not really commenting on whether Detroit should trade him or not. He's worth the gamble (which they clearly think as well, otherwise they would not have spent the #5 overall pick on him).

And my comment is not just about Ausar, although he’s a great example.

How do teams get great players? 3 options- draft, free agency or trades:
1. Free agency for great players doesn’t exist anymore. They sign their extensions and force trades later if needed. But getting an AllStar in free agency is almost impossible now.
2. Trades are always a possibility, but to get a current AllStar you need to give up all your future draft assets. And there is the rest of the league trying to get them as well. Not an easy path.
3. Draft. It’s risky. Sure teams get lucky, but looking at the odds, you need to draft in the lottery, you need to choose well, and then give them the coaching, playing time and time to grow up and you might get an AllStar.

So if you have some players in that last category, you can’t be impatient. If you’re not getting a great player in return on a trade, why are you moving a lottery rookie in a trade?

[Kalamazoo317]

I think you can get an All Star in free agency if they aren't an All Star when they enter free agency, but become that way when they take on a bigger role on your team. Like with a guy like Brunson.

Similarly, you want to trade for players that can *become* All Stars.

So in a way, free agency and trading are just extra draft picks where you have to bet on potential an upside.

[Colbinii]

3. Draft. It’s risky. Sure teams get lucky, but looking at the odds, you need to draft in the lottery, you need to choose well, and then give them the coaching, playing time and time to grow up and you might get an AllStar.

No you don't. You can accurately predict most young players career outcome within a range after their 1st year, certainly after their 2nd/3rd years.

Hinkie Philly did this exceptionally well. Imagine how many people thought about "What could be" with Michael Carter-WIlliams?

So if you have some players in that last category, you can’t be impatient.

You can if you also have players who have shown star potential [Notably Cade Cunningham]

If you’re not getting a great player in return on a trade, why are you moving a lottery rookie in a trade?

For another bite at the apple or if you are ready to win-now and build around a cornerstone or cornerstone(s).

[Kalamazoo317]

No you don't. You can accurately predict most young players career outcome within a range after their 1st year, certainly after their 2nd/3rd years.

Hinkie Philly did this exceptionally well. Imagine how many people thought about "What could be" with Michael Carter-WIlliams?

Wasn't MCW the rookie of the year? Doesn't really seem like that was accurate for his ultimate career outcome.

[Colbinii]

No you don't. You can accurately predict most young players career outcome within a range after their 1st year, certainly after their 2nd/3rd years.

Hinkie Philly did this exceptionally well. Imagine how many people thought about "What could be" with Michael Carter-WIlliams?

Wasn't MCW the rookie of the year? Doesn't really seem like that was accurate for his ultimate career outcome.

What are you talking about? That's my point. The 76ers quickly identified MCW had a clear ceiling and limitations and moved him before the trade deadline of his 2nd season.

Also, let's be very clear. Rookie of the Year is not "Rookie who has the highest ceiling". It is sometimes, but not in 2013 draft.

[supertruck97]

I think that Detroit only does this if they feel, after one season, that Whitmore has a higher or more desirable ceiling and path to get there than Ausar.

I personally believe Ausar will end up a great defensive player and roll man, but an absolute liability on offense that will have to be augmented just right to be most effective. Think Corey Brewer plus?

Whitmore will likely end up a very good offensive player, and competent enough on the defensive end to not be a burden. Think Corey Maggette.

The bet on which of those has the best ceiling is a crapshoot.

I don't believe the Rockets would add any value in a trade (picks, Eason) to swap Whitmore for Ausar. Nor do I think Detroit would for the reverse.

[Kalamazoo317]

No you don't. You can accurately predict most young players career outcome within a range after their 1st year, certainly after their 2nd/3rd years.

Hinkie Philly did this exceptionally well. Imagine how many people thought about "What could be" with Michael Carter-WIlliams?

Wasn't MCW the rookie of the year? Doesn't really seem like that was accurate for his ultimate career outcome.

What are you talking about? That's my point. The 76ers quickly identified MCW had a clear ceiling and limitations and moved him before the trade deadline of his 2nd season.

Also, let's be very clear. Rookie of the Year is not "Rookie who has the highest ceiling". It is sometimes, but not in 2013 draft.

Sorry, I was applying the specific example to the overall point you were making. I should reread your overall thesis not as "it's easy to accurately predict most young player career outcomes within a range after their 1st year" but instead as "it's really difficult to accurately predict most young player career outcomes within a range after their 1st year but smart front offices can make their hay doing so."

Since, clearly, in your example, most people outside of Hinkie's front office got it wrong on MCW and didn't correctly predict his trajectory.

[theBigLip]

3. Draft. It’s risky. Sure teams get lucky, but looking at the odds, you need to draft in the lottery, you need to choose well, and then give them the coaching, playing time and time to grow up and you might get an AllStar.

No you don't. You can accurately predict most young players career outcome within a range after their 1st year, certainly after their 2nd/3rd years.

After the first year? You know more than when you drafted them, but their outcome is far from known.

Again, my point is you can't trade them away frivolously. Ausar already has elite skills. And posters want to swap him because of an 18% 3PT%, which doesn't even tell the whole story (getting better to the end of th eyear, and is the number of shots sufficient?) So if you want to trade someone like that away, you better be confident in the package coming in.