Another OKC-UTA trade (Giddey/12/future UTA 1st for Kessler/10/?)

[babyjax13]

My thought is that perhaps Utah needs to send 29, 32, and/or future 2nd(s) or a 1st (e.g., worst 2025 1st) to balance, but this is the core of the deal.

Someone posted a similar (the same?) deal on the Utah board, perhaps it has already been here, but I don't hate it.

UTA trades: 2024 UTA 1st (10), Walker Kessler
OKC trades: 2024 HOU 1st (12), Josh Giddey, 2025 UTA 1st (top 10 protected, top 8 protected)

Why UTA does it: move down in the draft and swap a cost-controlled young player whose fit is iffy to get a less cost-controlled player whose fit will be better if we play Hendricks at center and get rid of the (imo, somewhat marginal) chance the 2025 1st conveys.

Why OKC does it: move up slightly in the draft, get a possible long-term solution as a center next to and/or backing up Chet, get an additional year of rookie-scale salary relative to Giddey.

[gswhoops]

I think I would probably pass if I were OKC. But I think I'm higher on Giddey and/or lower on Kessler than most of this board.

[jayjaysee]

I’m not sure on how to value Giddey/Kessler part. But feel like Utah owes in that swap, so owes overall..

Like if Giddey wasn’t in it, OKC owes a late first right? Is that all Giddey is worth?

The problem is neither of these teams need late firsts/ seconds in general, but OKC doesn’t need any this season specifically. They have 13 players under contract with 35ish million in cap space. And they actually play probably 10 of those guys..

So I’m not sure how it would be balanced. Maybe Presti can turn whatever extra Utah adds into a future first.

[babyjax13]

I think I would probably pass if I were OKC. But I think I'm higher on Giddey and/or lower on Kessler than most of this board.

I think I'm higher on Giddey's talent than Kessler's too, but not especially so. But it is pretty clear he is a bad fit for OKC (but I also think most of the center ideas are bad fits, too). IMO, they should just grab Kel'el Ware at 12 because he does everything they need in a center who compliments Chet.

[babyjax13]

I’m not sure on how to value Giddey/Kessler part. But feel like Utah owes in that swap, so owes overall..

Like if Giddey wasn’t in it, OKC owes a late first right? Is that all Giddey is worth?

The problem is neither of these teams need late firsts/ seconds in general, but OKC doesn’t need any this season.

So I’m not sure how it would be balanced. Maybe Presti can turn whatever extra Utah adds into a future first.

worst of UTA/MIN/CLE 2025 1sts?

[Texas Chuck]

yeah I have Giddey more valuable than Kessler for sure. I think if OKC wanted Kessler, they would simply try and trade futures for him and there is probably a nexus where OKC can live with the asset given and Utah can live with getting it. I think he's fine as a cheap backup center for 2 years.

If Utah really wants Giddey, its somewhat less simple because OKC doesn't want futures as much as now, but of course if the value is there Presti can turn around and backfill in a veteran. And if Sexton has played his way into Utah's plans, he and Giddey are a complimentary back-court(on offense anyway).

[BlazersBroncos]

I think this is decent if the future FRP is removed. Maybe add some future SRP. I also likely only do this for OKC if Dalton somehow falls to 10. It would allow them to then key in on a starting PF.

G - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander / Cason Wallace
G - Lou Dort / Isaiah Joe / Aaron Wiggins
F - Jalen Williams / Dalton Knetch / Aaron Wiggins
F - PF Via Trade / Kenrich Williams / Jalen Williams
C - Chet Holmgren / Walker Kessler / Jaylin Williams

[jayjaysee]

I’m not sure on how to value Giddey/Kessler part. But feel like Utah owes in that swap, so owes overall..

Like if Giddey wasn’t in it, OKC owes a late first right? Is that all Giddey is worth?

The problem is neither of these teams need late firsts/ seconds in general, but OKC doesn’t need any this season.

So I’m not sure how it would be balanced. Maybe Presti can turn whatever extra Utah adds into a future first.

worst of UTA/MIN/CLE 2025 1sts?

I think Presti would prefer the latest of the four 2027 firsts? Similar upside, just wait to convey until the luxury tax actually starts for OKC.. that feels right.

2025 OKC already owned Miami, Philly and will likely have a lottery pick as well..

But I don’t know if Presti takes that type of deal or if he just keeps Giddey if that’s his value?

That’s the way I lean. If Giddey isn’t valued and Realgm is right about him.. Wouldn’t they be able to keep him for 20ish million a year? Transition him to 6th man if he never develops a shot/size/defense.. OKC has plenty of assets to exchange if he’s only worth what the majority feel like he is.

[babyjax13]

I’m not sure on how to value Giddey/Kessler part. But feel like Utah owes in that swap, so owes overall..

Like if Giddey wasn’t in it, OKC owes a late first right? Is that all Giddey is worth?

The problem is neither of these teams need late firsts/ seconds in general, but OKC doesn’t need any this season.

So I’m not sure how it would be balanced. Maybe Presti can turn whatever extra Utah adds into a future first.

worst of UTA/MIN/CLE 2025 1sts?

I think Presti would prefer the latest of the four 2027 firsts? Similar upside, just wait to convey until the luxury tax actually starts for OKC..

But I don’t know if Presti takes that type of deal or if he just keeps Giddey if that’s his value?

That’s the way I lean. If Giddey isn’t valued and Realgm is right about him.. Wouldn’t they be able to keep him for 20ish million a year? Transition him to 6th man if he never develops a shot/size/defense.. OKC has plenty of assets to exchange if he’s only worth what the majority feel like he is.

$20 million seems really expensive when they will already be paying SGA and Dort, and when they will soon have to pay Chet/Williams. That is going to be three max contracts + Dort. Of course, they'd have the same issue with Kessler, but IMO big rim-defending centers usually get less on the market unless they are absolute outliers, which I don't think Kessler is. So, if the margin between the two is thin, I think netting the savings, getting a marginal move up in the draft to have more choice, and netting a future asset (that is gtd. to convey) makes sense. Just my take on that situation. Especially with Cason having more years of cost control and IMO being a better fit on the team, anyway.

Also, 2027 makes sense and seems fine to me.

[sterncohen]

In addition to the considerations other posters have noted, I think the return of the conditional Utah 1st kills this for OKC. Likely it doesn't convey next year, but a top-8 protected pick in 2026 from a team that's likely to be in late lottery territory by then is too good to give up in a deal like this.

[eminence]

I would much much rather have Kessler than Giddey, so it's a clear no from me.

[mg]

I would much much rather have Kessler than Giddey, so it's a clear no from me.

Same. I don't get the infatuation with Giddey especially when he's due for a contract extension in the near future too.

[DrModesty]

worst of UTA/MIN/CLE 2025 1sts?

I think Presti would prefer the latest of the four 2027 firsts? Similar upside, just wait to convey until the luxury tax actually starts for OKC..

But I don’t know if Presti takes that type of deal or if he just keeps Giddey if that’s his value?

That’s the way I lean. If Giddey isn’t valued and Realgm is right about him.. Wouldn’t they be able to keep him for 20ish million a year? Transition him to 6th man if he never develops a shot/size/defense.. OKC has plenty of assets to exchange if he’s only worth what the majority feel like he is.

$20 million seems really expensive when they will already be paying SGA and Dort, and when they will soon have to pay Chet/Williams. That is going to be three max contracts + Dort. Of course, they'd have the same issue with Kessler, but IMO big rim-defending centers usually get less on the market unless they are absolute outliers, which I don't think Kessler is. So, if the margin between the two is thin, I think netting the savings, getting a marginal move up in the draft to have more choice, and netting a future asset (that is gtd. to convey) makes sense. Just my take on that situation. Especially with Cason having more years of cost control and IMO being a better fit on the team, anyway.

Also, 2027 makes sense and seems fine to me.

I think $20 is shortly going to look like a small contract. We are about to hit the point where guys who are somewhere around the typical 3rd and high level 4th options get paid double that without it even being an overpay, and the All NBA guys are going to be getting triple.