POR - SAC

[Myth]

So you’ve made an assumption here…you think I simply looked at last years mpg to arrive at what I provided in my response.

I fully understand that the mpg factors in things like injuries, OT, etc. It’s why I didn’t list Fox at 34 mpg, Ellis at 17 mpg, etc. The minutes I posted is what I would imagine if our team was healthy, and if our team is healthy, this trade is either forcing us to play small for a sizeable amount of time or to cut minutes for a guy that deserves more minutes (which will likely reduce their trade value racking up DNPs or low minute total games).

So you are using the imaginary 2k style minutes then instead of what teams actually do when healthy. My take was a very realistic take of what you would expect for a season that accounts for expected times missing, based on actual minutes the Kings coach plays them. But in the rare games with a full healthy roster, no way what you gave is the actual minute distribution you will see. First, last season Ellis averaged 17mpg and 4mpg of those were at SF. You think that with no major changes to the roster, he is going to get 7 more minutes per game, but somehow drop to 2mpg at SF? That simply isn't how your team used him, so why would that drastically change with no roster changes? If he is getting more minutes next season, more than 2 minutes of those will be at SF with or without changes. I also don't think the coach will suddenly only give Huerter SF minutes when 72% of his minutes were played at SG last season. When teams are healthy, role players like Ellis won't get 24mpg, they get much less. The only reason he would average 24mpg is because of injuries to others and him having games where he has 30mpg, while other games he remains closer to 20. Similarly, you don't play Brogdon 26 minutes in a game where the rest of the team is healthy too, you give him more of a breather in those rare games where a team is at full strength (which is quite rare in the NBA). I think for those rare truly healthy regular season games, you bring Brogdon and Ellis closer to 20 minutes, and I think you play Grant more at SF.

PG - Fox (34) / Brogdon (14)
SG - Ellis (16) / Monk (26) / Brogdon (6)
SF - Murray (30) / Grant (10) / Ellis (4) / Duarte (4)
PF - Grant (24) / Lyles (20)/ Murray (4)
C - Sabonis (34) / Reath (10) / Len (4)

This is still an overall bigger line-up than the Kings ran with last season, while generally allocating minutes more accurately to what we saw, without adding a single extra minute of SF to Ellis compared to last year while still giving him more minutes overall. Then he'll still get his 24mpg for the season on a whole once he (and others) inevitably have bigger minute games filling in for players sitting out.

Well see this new minutes rotation you provided is the issue I’ve been discussing.

When healthy, you’re now diluting your talent because only so many minutes can be played at that guard position (Brogdon at 20 min and Ellis at 20 min). I’d much rather find a trade that balances that roster to either 1) avoid us playing long stretches of small ball or 2) avoid playing guys like Brogdon and Ellis only 20 min.

You’re getting wrapped up in what their recorded mpg will be at the end of the season while I’m focusing on what the minute rotation would be at full strength as that is how I ultimately determine the team’s ceiling and their ability to advance deep in the playoffs.

Like I mentioned before, including Brogdon only really makes sense if Monk walks. Instead, I think a guy like Thybulle would make more sense considering his ability to play SG/SF (while Brogdon is a PG/SG)…

PG - Fox (34) / Monk (14)
SG - Ellis (26) / Monk (14) / Thybulle (8)
SF - Murray (32) / Thybulle (16)
PF - Grant (32) / Lyles (16)
C - Sabonis (34) / Len (14)

When a team is at full strength, there is always cuts to the minutes of role players. That wouldn't be unique to the setup I proposed. That is how every deep team with aspirations for playoff success functions. To expect a full strength team to evenly distribute the minutes the way you did is just not what teams do, especially in the playoffs when teams even cut it down further, typically to 8 players rotations, and the top 5 guys on a team getting 30-40mpg (not 24 here, 24 there), then a big drop off for the next 3 guys to 10-20mpg. If you want to look at full strength, I think you have to ask, who are the top 8 that get those minutes. I think the big question is, with Brogdon and Lyle being the more obvious under 20mpg guys, is the 3rd Ellis or Monk? I doubt the coach actually splits their minutes evenly as coaches don't do that in these situation. Depth gets teams through the season, and then the minutes do something completely different in the playoffs (For example, in the minutes you posted above, for the playoffs expect Fox to be closer to 39 minutes, Grant and Murray to be about 35 minutes, Sabonis to be at 35-36 minutes, then the rest will be adjusted to allow for that). But anyway, lets move on. This portion of the conversation has gone on longer than needed. You don't like the Brogdon version, that is fine.

As for the Thybulle to Kings portion, it isn't out of the question by any means to switch it up to involve Thybulle, but it makes less sense for the Blazers, so I think more modifications need to be made to make it make sense. A big portion of including Brogdon from Portland's end was bigger savings this year to get under the tax, and opening minutes for the glut of guards. So what would be your proposal that includes Thybulle with Grant?

[tester551]

The value is fine, but this is too many players already under contract coming into Portland, which forces us to waive a player we don’t want to waive to make it legal. I think this is where a trade with Barnes and only 1 salary filler makes this an easier trade.

I would rather get Beeker (Huerter) than Barnes back from the Kings.

I think Kings have enough cap flexibility that it can just be a 1:1 trade if Grant & Beeker. If not, adding Sasha would be sufficient.

No need for Durate

[Myth]

The value is fine, but this is too many players already under contract coming into Portland, which forces us to waive a player we don’t want to waive to make it legal. I think this is where a trade with Barnes and only 1 salary filler makes this an easier trade.

I would rather get Beeker (Huerter) than Barnes back from the Kings.

I think Kings have enough cap flexibility that it can just be a 1:1 trade if Grant & Beeker. If not, adding Sasha would be sufficient.

No need for Durate

According to Spotrac Trade Machine, it still just barely fails even by including Sasha. So that is where Duarte comes in, but then we are right back to waiving somebody or trading them to the Kings as part of the trade (Duop Reath being the most likely candidate based on salary and long term fit - If waived we just eat his salary, so we'd really need Kings to take him too which I think they would accept in this proposal). I'd personally rather have Duop than Duarte or Sasha. This is where I would rather have Barnes, 1 of the fillers (Sasha or Duarte), and Duop on the roster while saving about $5-6M next season rather than Huerter, Duarte, and Sasha while saving $2.5M.

[bpcox05]

So you are using the imaginary 2k style minutes then instead of what teams actually do when healthy. My take was a very realistic take of what you would expect for a season that accounts for expected times missing, based on actual minutes the Kings coach plays them. But in the rare games with a full healthy roster, no way what you gave is the actual minute distribution you will see. First, last season Ellis averaged 17mpg and 4mpg of those were at SF. You think that with no major changes to the roster, he is going to get 7 more minutes per game, but somehow drop to 2mpg at SF? That simply isn't how your team used him, so why would that drastically change with no roster changes? If he is getting more minutes next season, more than 2 minutes of those will be at SF with or without changes. I also don't think the coach will suddenly only give Huerter SF minutes when 72% of his minutes were played at SG last season. When teams are healthy, role players like Ellis won't get 24mpg, they get much less. The only reason he would average 24mpg is because of injuries to others and him having games where he has 30mpg, while other games he remains closer to 20. Similarly, you don't play Brogdon 26 minutes in a game where the rest of the team is healthy too, you give him more of a breather in those rare games where a team is at full strength (which is quite rare in the NBA). I think for those rare truly healthy regular season games, you bring Brogdon and Ellis closer to 20 minutes, and I think you play Grant more at SF.

PG - Fox (34) / Brogdon (14)
SG - Ellis (16) / Monk (26) / Brogdon (6)
SF - Murray (30) / Grant (10) / Ellis (4) / Duarte (4)
PF - Grant (24) / Lyles (20)/ Murray (4)
C - Sabonis (34) / Reath (10) / Len (4)

This is still an overall bigger line-up than the Kings ran with last season, while generally allocating minutes more accurately to what we saw, without adding a single extra minute of SF to Ellis compared to last year while still giving him more minutes overall. Then he'll still get his 24mpg for the season on a whole once he (and others) inevitably have bigger minute games filling in for players sitting out.

Well see this new minutes rotation you provided is the issue I’ve been discussing.

When healthy, you’re now diluting your talent because only so many minutes can be played at that guard position (Brogdon at 20 min and Ellis at 20 min). I’d much rather find a trade that balances that roster to either 1) avoid us playing long stretches of small ball or 2) avoid playing guys like Brogdon and Ellis only 20 min.

You’re getting wrapped up in what their recorded mpg will be at the end of the season while I’m focusing on what the minute rotation would be at full strength as that is how I ultimately determine the team’s ceiling and their ability to advance deep in the playoffs.

Like I mentioned before, including Brogdon only really makes sense if Monk walks. Instead, I think a guy like Thybulle would make more sense considering his ability to play SG/SF (while Brogdon is a PG/SG)…

PG - Fox (34) / Monk (14)
SG - Ellis (26) / Monk (14) / Thybulle (8)
SF - Murray (32) / Thybulle (16)
PF - Grant (32) / Lyles (16)
C - Sabonis (34) / Len (14)

When a team is at full strength, there is always cuts to the minutes of role players. That wouldn't be unique to the setup I proposed. That is how every deep team with aspirations for playoff success functions. To expect a full strength team to evenly distribute the minutes the way you did is just not what teams do, especially in the playoffs when teams even cut it down further, typically to 8 players rotations, and the top 5 guys on a team getting 30-40mpg (not 24 here, 24 there), then a big drop off for the next 3 guys to 10-20mpg. If you want to look at full strength, I think you have to ask, who are the top 8 that get those minutes. I think the big question is, with Brogdon and Lyle being the more obvious under 20mpg guys, is the 3rd Ellis or Monk? I doubt the coach actually splits their minutes evenly as coaches don't do that in these situation. Depth gets teams through the season, and then the minutes do something completely different in the playoffs (For example, in the minutes you posted above, for the playoffs expect Fox to be closer to 39 minutes, Grant and Murray to be about 35 minutes, Sabonis to be at 35-36 minutes, then the rest will be adjusted to allow for that). But anyway, lets move on. This portion of the conversation has gone on longer than needed. You don't like the Brogdon version, that is fine.

As for the Thybulle to Kings portion, it isn't out of the question by any means to switch it up to involve Thybulle, but it makes less sense for the Blazers, so I think more modifications need to be made to make it make sense. A big portion of including Brogdon from Portland's end was bigger savings this year to get under the tax, and opening minutes for the glut of guards. So what would be your proposal that includes Thybulle with Grant?

I’m guessing the disconnect is how we value Brogdon, Monk, and Ellis.

Brogdon was just named 6th man of the year last year, Monk should have won it this year, and Ellis is looking like an elite defender who is a great shooter as well (in fact, players on the Kings often mentioned how Ellis and Vezenkov are the two guys that are always winning the shooting drills/competitions in practice). But Ellis doesn’t just appear like a shooter. He can put the ball on the deck and pass as well. He’s looking like a perfect starting SG next to Fox long term.

As you can see, those 3 players are all good, starter caliber players. Relegating them to play less than 20 min in the rotation is not a good use of our roster spots and cap. To make the point clearer, let me provide this extreme hypothetical…

Let’s say you have a team with Brunson, Fox, Curry, and Irving. At least one of those guys is going to have their minutes dramatically reduced. Again, that’s not an efficient use of your roster and cap space. It would be much more prudent to trade one of those guys for a player at a different position to better balance the roster. This is how I see Fox, Ellis, Monk, and Brogdon (but obviously to a lesser degree).

Now if you replace one of those 4 guys with someone like Mitchell, you now have 3 “starting caliber” players and a role player whose minutes can be in that 10-20 min range and can be squeezed further in the playoffs to prioritize your “starting caliber” players (Fox, Ellis, and Brogdon/Monk).

I’d much rather find a Brogdon level player at the wing to come off the bench as that is 1) a better use of our cap, 2) balances the roster, and 3) makes more a sensible minutes rotation with the ability to condense down to a tight 8 man rotation come playoff time (Fox - Ellis - Murray - Grant - Sabonis - Monk - ??? Wing - Lyles).