[Wojnarowski]: Houston/Brooklyn Pick Swap

[CallMeKahn]

Now that I have had a chance to digest it from the Rocket stand point.

Before:
Nets would have probably had a mediocre 2025, and a better 26 and 27 by developing some youth and signing free agents, trading for some pieces using the Suns picks.
- 2025 pick would have been likely 10-12ish, with a 10% chance or so to jump to top 4.
- 2026 and 27 picks would likely have been in 12-17 range, with a small chance of major injury or bad Nets luck to improve.

After
- 2025 pick is now likely the Suns pick, which will maybe be 15-24
- 2026 now we have no pick
- 2027 Nets pick is now VASTLY improved. Nets will be year 3 of a rebuild and unlikely to be very good.
- 2027 Suns pick will probably be in 15-20 range. Have to imagine they will be worse with older Beal and Durant. Perhaps some chance they crater.
- 2029 We now have the two best picks of HOU, DAL and PHO. Phoenix is likely pretty bad at this point, and Dallas is a wildcard, Kyrie will be 37, Doncic 30. Houston should be peaking.

Net
Drop 10 or so slots in 2025, give up a 10% chance at top 4
Lose a 12-17 pick in 2026
Move up 10 or so slots in 2027
Add 2027 #15 or so
Add a likely very good 2029 Suns #1
May or may not be able to swap with Dallas in 2029, who knows what they look like.

Seems like a pretty neutral deal to me, to be honest.

Nice breakdown. And agreed, I don't really hate this for either teams as both got what they wanted.

[patman66]

Can't say as I can follow this one quite yet.

Don't really like Houston moving for Durant.

Yeah, neither do I.

[sterncohen]

I will eat these words if Houston somehow manages to get Booker - not very likely, I imagine - but I think this is a truly terrible trade for Houston. Yes, those Phoenix picks might be very valuable. But the moment the Nets inquire about getting their picks back, Houston has to know that the only reason for them to do that is that they're bottoming out. And the moment the Nets decide to bottom out is the moment that their 2025 and 2026 picks, in loaded drafts, become among the best assets in the league. A great night for the Nets, really bad for the Rockets.

[Netaman]

Now that I have had a chance to digest it from the Rocket stand point.

Before:
Nets would have probably had a mediocre 2025, and a better 26 and 27 by developing some youth and signing free agents, trading for some pieces using the Suns picks.
- 2025 pick would have been likely 10-12ish, with a 10% chance or so to jump to top 4.
- 2026 and 27 picks would likely have been in 12-17 range, with a small chance of major injury or bad Nets luck to improve.

After
- 2025 pick is now likely the Suns pick, which will maybe be 15-24
- 2026 now we have no pick
- 2027 Nets pick is now VASTLY improved. Nets will be year 3 of a rebuild and unlikely to be very good.
- 2027 Suns pick will probably be in 15-20 range. Have to imagine they will be worse with older Beal and Durant. Perhaps some chance they crater.
- 2029 We now have the two best picks of HOU, DAL and PHO. Phoenix is likely pretty bad at this point, and Dallas is a wildcard, Kyrie will be 37, Doncic 30. Houston should be peaking.

Net
Drop 10 or so slots in 2025, give up a 10% chance at top 4
Lose a 12-17 pick in 2026
Move up 10 or so slots in 2027
Add 2027 #15 or so
Add a likely very good 2029 Suns #1
May or may not be able to swap with Dallas in 2029, who knows what they look like.

Seems like a pretty neutral deal to me, to be honest.

Thank you for this breakdown. As a Net fan my first reaction was it's 4 good picks for 2 probably better picks that hit sooner.

I'm ok with that and I agree with you it's a pretty neutral deal, they got a little less upside because those phoenix picks were set up so good but also now own a lot less downside risk from their own picks which were set up even better the next couple years.

[R-DAWG]

Now that I have had a chance to digest it from the Rocket stand point.

Before:
Nets would have probably had a mediocre 2025, and a better 26 and 27 by developing some youth and signing free agents, trading for some pieces using the Suns picks.
- 2025 pick would have been likely 10-12ish, with a 10% chance or so to jump to top 4.
- 2026 and 27 picks would likely have been in 12-17 range, with a small chance of major injury or bad Nets luck to improve.

After
- 2025 pick is now likely the Suns pick, which will maybe be 15-24
- 2026 now we have no pick
- 2027 Nets pick is now VASTLY improved. Nets will be year 3 of a rebuild and unlikely to be very good.
- 2027 Suns pick will probably be in 15-20 range. Have to imagine they will be worse with older Beal and Durant. Perhaps some chance they crater.
- 2029 We now have the two best picks of HOU, DAL and PHO. Phoenix is likely pretty bad at this point, and Dallas is a wildcard, Kyrie will be 37, Doncic 30. Houston should be peaking.

Net
Drop 10 or so slots in 2025, give up a 10% chance at top 4
Lose a 12-17 pick in 2026
Move up 10 or so slots in 2027
Add 2027 #15 or so
Add a likely very good 2029 Suns #1
May or may not be able to swap with Dallas in 2029, who knows what they look like.

Seems like a pretty neutral deal to me, to be honest.

Thank you for this breakdown. As a Net fan my first reaction was it's 4 good picks for 2 probably better picks that hit sooner.

I'm ok with that and I agree with you it's a pretty neutral deal, they got a little less upside because those phoenix picks were set up so good but also now own a lot less downside risk from their own picks which were set up even better the next couple years.

Wouldn't have Brooklyn been better off trading Bridges to Houston for #3/25 swap back/26 1st returned vs the picks they got from the Knicks?

[Netaman]

Wouldn't have Brooklyn been better off trading Bridges to Houston for #3/25 swap back/26 1st returned vs the picks they got from the Knicks?

i think that question is basically:

getting 3rd overall + keeping PHO 25/27/29

or

getting NYK 25/27/29/31 + 28 swap + MIL 25 (top 4 protected)

My view on that - 3x PHO picks are very likely better than the 3x NYK picks in 25/27/29, but let's pretend they are equal for a minute so they can cleanly cancel each other out. You are left with:

3rd overall pick
or
MIL 25, NYK31, NYK 28 swap

if you really liked someone at 3rd overall i think you'd prefer that over 2 distant unprotecteds and what will probably be pick 20-25 next year. but if you don't like 3rd overall because it's a weak draft and you value that as more of a pick #10-15 in a normal draft, then there's a good argument for the path they chose. Then the difference goes back to Phoenix vs NYK in 27/29/31?

Also I guess there's no certainty Houston put all 3 of 24/25/26 on the table.

[Ball4life32]

I like both moves a lot for Brooklyn. Can’t believe they got their pick back next year.