Weird idea turned into a weird trade

[Scoot McGroot]

I see what you’re saying. The back end of the Stapien rule entangles another year. If they owned another first in 27 or 28 than it wouldn’t matter, but because they don’t then it actually ties up the additional year. Which means my suggestion only makes sense in the context of an existing deal between the Pistons and team X for Detroit’s pick this year or next.

Edit to fix: upon further reflection you were incorrect. If the pick conveys in 2026 than 2027 is locked. So currently they cannot move 25/26/27 or the 2nds in 27 and 28.

Bold and bold.

They can currently move 27 with the caveat "not to be conveyed until 2 drafts after a pick has been conveyed to Minnesota..."

So, they can trade the 27 right now. It just may not convey in 27, and may push back to 28. Just like if they trade the 28 with the same caveats now, they can trade the 2030, with those caveats added. Or else, in your scenario, then Detroit would be swapping the inflexibility now to not being able to swap any of 27/28/29/30/31, as the first could push back.

Except further down the rebuild line the pick is much more likely to convey in 28 in the late 20s and then they only lose 29 to the Stapien rule. Whereas this season without further reinforcements and having lost Ivey, they likely don’t convey the pick till next year, and that also freezes 27 (does not convey,) which lowers that picks value. It all depends on how Detroit wants to proceed with culture building. Do you continue the tank as long as possible until it no longer makes sense, or do you say we have a solid core of young players and an opportunity to start getting post season experience. If the former, don’t make my trade, if the latter, start looking at talent to bring in to get the 5 or 6 seed, start playing to make the culture a playoff culture, and assume that by 2028 your young guys are going to be perennial playoff performers.

I think after 6 years of not winning more than 23 games, that allowing their youth to grow into a 35 win-ish team is pretty fair and realistic in terms of timing. Would you demand they shoot for 50? And at 35, they may still get to the play-in in the East. Can't just manufacture a "playoff culture" out of thin air before you even know what the culture of the team may be.

[winforlose]

Bold and bold.

They can currently move 27 with the caveat "not to be conveyed until 2 drafts after a pick has been conveyed to Minnesota..."

So, they can trade the 27 right now. It just may not convey in 27, and may push back to 28. Just like if they trade the 28 with the same caveats now, they can trade the 2030, with those caveats added. Or else, in your scenario, then Detroit would be swapping the inflexibility now to not being able to swap any of 27/28/29/30/31, as the first could push back.

Except further down the rebuild line the pick is much more likely to convey in 28 in the late 20s and then they only lose 29 to the Stapien rule. Whereas this season without further reinforcements and having lost Ivey, they likely don’t convey the pick till next year, and that also freezes 27 (does not convey,) which lowers that picks value. It all depends on how Detroit wants to proceed with culture building. Do you continue the tank as long as possible until it no longer makes sense, or do you say we have a solid core of young players and an opportunity to start getting post season experience. If the former, don’t make my trade, if the latter, start looking at talent to bring in to get the 5 or 6 seed, start playing to make the culture a playoff culture, and assume that by 2028 your young guys are going to be perennial playoff performers.

I think after 6 years of not winning more than 23 games, that allowing their youth to grow into a 35 win-ish team is pretty fair and realistic in terms of timing. Would you demand they shoot for 50? And at 35, they may still get to the play-in in the East. Can't just manufacture a "playoff culture" out of thin air before you even know what the culture of the team may be.

You think the East needs 50 wins to get the 6 seed? Right now the Pistons are one game out of 6th and the Magic are looking like they are gonna crash. 42 to 44 wins should get the 6 seed. Even if the Pistons settle for the 7 seed and win of two play in games they get a playoff series. Next year with even more development under their belt a lot of these guys will be ready to take a step forward. All of this is before you add a solid vet to the mix and make the push from we are just trying to make the play in or just miss it, to we are playoff team and we will make it. You can absolutely build a playoff culture, and the Pistons should focus on that.

[shrink]

I see what you’re going for here, but if DET even wants to give up assets to reclaim their pick, they shouldn’t be using a future pick to do it.

A pick usually has the same value to whatever team holds it - the player picked at that spot. But picks have a little additional value to their original team because it may allow them to sidestep Stepien for greater trade flexibility, plus they can re-trade that pick with whatever new protections they want to value-match a deal.

If the DET deal has them reclaiming their pick at the price of a 2027, they only gain the second advantage. I could see DET interested in that pick, but just not for that asset.

[oldncreaky]

I see what you’re saying. The back end of the Stapien rule entangles another year. If they owned another first in 27 or 28 than it wouldn’t matter, but because they don’t then it actually ties up the additional year. Which means my suggestion only makes sense in the context of an existing deal between the Pistons and team X for Detroit’s pick this year or next.

Edit to fix: upon further reflection you were incorrect. If the pick conveys in 2026 than 2027 is locked. So currently they cannot move 25/26/27 or the 2nds in 27 and 28.

Bold and bold.

They can currently move 27 with the caveat "not to be conveyed until 2 drafts after a pick has been conveyed to Minnesota..."

So, they can trade the 27 right now. It just may not convey in 27, and may push back to 28. Just like if they trade the 28 with the same caveats now, they can trade the 2030, with those caveats added. Or else, in your scenario, then Detroit would be swapping the inflexibility now to not being able to swap any of 27/28/29/30/31, as the first could push back.

Except further down the rebuild line the pick is much more likely to convey in 28 in the late 20s and then they only lose 29 to the Stapien rule. Whereas this season without further reinforcements and having lost Ivey, they likely don’t convey the pick till next year, and that also freezes 27 (does not convey,) which lowers that picks value. It all depends on how Detroit wants to proceed with culture building. Do you continue the tank as long as possible until it no longer makes sense, or do you say we have a solid core of young players and an opportunity to start getting post season experience. If the former, don’t make my trade, if the latter, start looking at talent to bring in to get the 5 or 6 seed, start playing to make the culture a playoff culture, and assume that by 2028 your young guys are going to be perennial playoff performers.

I'll focus on

do you say we have a solid core of young players

I'd like to actually have the solid core of young players before I say I have it

DET at the moment:
- Cade, don't yet know if he is a true franchise guy or a really good #2
- Ivey, loads of potential, tricking extension decision coming up this summer
- Stewart, backup C who will often close games
- good prospects (Duren, Thompson, Holland) who are still developing works in process
- some playable vets (Harris, THJ, Beasley) that probably won't be in the picture for long
and not much else

That's not really a solid core to build around -- yet. More like Cade, Stewart and a bunch of questions. Could be looking like a solid core in as little as 12 months, in which case, we convey a non-lotto 2026 draft pick, and keep trying to improve . . .

[winforlose]

Bold and bold.

They can currently move 27 with the caveat "not to be conveyed until 2 drafts after a pick has been conveyed to Minnesota..."

So, they can trade the 27 right now. It just may not convey in 27, and may push back to 28. Just like if they trade the 28 with the same caveats now, they can trade the 2030, with those caveats added. Or else, in your scenario, then Detroit would be swapping the inflexibility now to not being able to swap any of 27/28/29/30/31, as the first could push back.

Except further down the rebuild line the pick is much more likely to convey in 28 in the late 20s and then they only lose 29 to the Stapien rule. Whereas this season without further reinforcements and having lost Ivey, they likely don’t convey the pick till next year, and that also freezes 27 (does not convey,) which lowers that picks value. It all depends on how Detroit wants to proceed with culture building. Do you continue the tank as long as possible until it no longer makes sense, or do you say we have a solid core of young players and an opportunity to start getting post season experience. If the former, don’t make my trade, if the latter, start looking at talent to bring in to get the 5 or 6 seed, start playing to make the culture a playoff culture, and assume that by 2028 your young guys are going to be perennial playoff performers.

I'll focus on

do you say we have a solid core of young players

I'd like to actually have the solid core of young players before I say I have it

DET at the moment:
- Cade, don't yet know if he is a true franchise guy or a really good #2
- Ivey, loads of potential, tricking extension decision coming up this summer
- Stewart, backup C who will often close games
- good prospects (Duren, Thompson, Holland) who are still developing works in process
- some playable vets (Harris, THJ, Beasley) that probably won't be in the picture for long
and not much else

That's not really a solid core to build around -- yet. More like Cade, Stewart and a bunch of questions. Could be looking like a solid core in as little as 12 months, in which case, we convey a non-lotto 2026 draft pick, and keep trying to improve . . .

Fair enough. I guess I just have more faith in the Pistons roster than you.