T&T board top 25 trade value - Vote for #1

[tmorgan]

I mean, even if you think there's a 75% chance prime Wemby reaches the level of prime Jokic (aka multiple time MVP, option 1A on a championship team) and stays healthy consistently...doesn't that 25% chance give you some pause? I think that's where the disconnect for me is.

No, not at all. Because I do know I’m getting a longer period of control (and much longer career, barring injury), temporary lesser salary, and defensive anchor that’s already likely the best in the league.

The only thing that gives me any doubt at all is durability. Jokic is an oak tree trunk and Wemby is a willow sapling. It’s a risk I take for the insane two-way upside and youth.

Oh, and there’s this, which I don’t think is as trivial an issue as some Denver fans imagine — if the Nuggets front office continues to struggle (kudos on the Westbrook pickup, by the way, he looks great with Jokic), it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Jokic go all Barry Sanders on Denver and just walk away and retire in the middle of a contract. He’s made a ton of money, has nothing to prove, and has other competitive interests. He’s clearly not the same as your typical North American basketball superstar. While I’m sure his game will age well, I’m not sure he wants to play basketball past 35 or so.

[Texas Chuck]

But the difference between a Jokic season and say a prime Harden or Dwight Powell(borderline MVP level) season is just so massive. One of the most undervalued things on this board is how valuable one season of an elite player is.

Go back over 40 years. Here are the teams with championships without a top 3 player on the roster:

Celtics last year --insane depth of top 25 guys
Spurs last title, again Duncan, Manu, Kawhi, Parker just not at their peaks
Pistons three times-- super deep Wallace/Wallace/Chauncey teams or even deeper Zeke/Dumars/Laimbeer/Rodman etc teams

That's it. Those are the only execptions. If you want a title you need That Guy. Other than maybe Lebron and early 00's Shaq there hasn't been a guy as good as Jokic for this long. And I'm not sold Shaq/Lebron actually peaked higher.

The odds of Wemby doing this aren't 75%. They might be 5%. And that's if everything goes right and he stays healthy.

We undervalue elite years. One MVP season is worth a dozen all-star seasons, probably more actually.

[tmorgan]

But the difference between a Jokic season and say a prime Harden or Dwight Powell(borderline MVP level) season is just so massive. One of the most undervalued things on this board is how valuable one season of an elite player is.

Go back over 40 years. Here are the teams with championships without a top 3 player on the roster:

Celtics last year --insane depth of top 25 guys
Spurs last title, again Duncan, Manu, Kawhi, Parker just not at their peaks
Pistons three times-- super deep Wallace/Wallace/Chauncey teams or even deeper Zeke/Dumars/Laimbeer/Rodman etc teams

That's it. Those are the only execptions. If you want a title you need That Guy. Other than maybe Lebron and early 00's Shaq there hasn't been a guy as good as Jokic for this long. And I'm not sold Shaq/Lebron actually peaked higher.

The odds of Wemby doing this aren't 75%. They might be 5%. And that's if everything goes right and he stays healthy.

We undervalue elite years. One MVP season is worth a dozen all-star seasons, probably more actually.

There’s the essence of our disagreement. You say 5%, I say that’s ridiculous.

This is a 21 year old guy that’s the front runner for DPOY. His shot profile is bizarre for a 7’4” guy, but again, I think they’re protecting him, and further now is the time to work on his perimeter game because this Spurs team isn’t getting far in the playoffs if they make it at all.

And I agree. One MVP season is worth a dozen All-Star seasons. But I think you’re making my point for me, because Wemby is likely going to end up with a whole bunch of them.

My apologies, though. I’m just repeating myself now. I’m doing it because it really irks me that the opinion that Wemby is the most valuable trade asset in basketball can be labeled as “fetishizing youth”. That’s a bunch of bullisht, dismissive, and not worthy of this forum.

[tmorgan]

Also, watch out for those prime Dwight Powell seasons, Chuck!

[Texas Chuck]

My apologies, though. I’m just repeating myself now. I’m doing it because it really irks me that the opinion that Wemby is the most valuable trade asset in basketball can be labeled as “fetishizing youth”. That’s a bunch of bullisht, dismissive, and not worthy of this forum.

I feel like I have engaged you in good faith and taken your arguments as good ones even if I disagree vehemently. I'm here for rigorous debate.

Now do I think a lot of people just fetishize youth? Yes. I stand by that comment, but that doesn't mean it pertains to everyone voting for Wemby, not at all. But look at this board and how most posters view young players on their teams. They are all valued at a best case scenario. If they have played and look bad, that is explained away. If they haven't played much yet, that's just evidence of how much untapped potential is still out there etc...

This allure of the next big thing is real. But there are obviously legit arguments for why Wemby should have a ton of value. I think he has a ton of value. Just not Jokic.

[Texas Chuck]

Also, watch out for those prime Dwight Powell seasons, Chuck!

Not sure where you are going with this, but I will stand with Dwight Powell to the end. He shouldn't be playing meaningful minutes at this point, but a better dude I am unlikely to find.

[tmorgan]

Also, watch out for those prime Dwight Powell seasons, Chuck!

Not sure where you are going with this, but I will stand with Dwight Powell to the end. He shouldn't be playing meaningful minutes at this point, but a better dude I am unlikely to find.

Look at your own post, a few posts up.

[Texas Chuck]

LOL leaving that unedited just because

[shrink]

1. I don’t have any problem with people voting for Wemby, or for Jokic.

2. I find that it a little strange that people are cherry-picking Oden, or Kareem, or can make any predictions on the odds Wemby will surpass Jokic’s extremely high bar. The truth is, we don’t know, and we don’t have anything to compare this to. There has never been a player like Wembanyama, combining his physical attributes with that style of play.

3. People may be voting their own risk aversiveness.

[Texas Chuck]

1. I don’t have any problem with people voting for Wemby, or for Jokic.

2. I find that it a little strange that people are cherry-picking Oden, or Kareem, or can make any predictions on the odds Wemby will surpass Jokic’s extremely high bar. The truth is, we don’t know, and we don’t have anything to compare this to. There has never been a player like Wembanyama, combining his physical attributes with that style of play.

3. People may be voting their own risk aversiveness.

Fair.

2. I set odds simply based on how ridiculously good Jokic is. I don't care what kind of prospect you are (and Wemby is the best one since Lebron), the odds are long of ever being that good. And yes 5% is arbitrary AF.

3. 100% I've been upfront for a decade here. I value the proven over the maybe time and again. Jokic is as sure of a thing as their could be. I'm not passing that up because maybe. And I understand this maybe is something maybe never seen before. If he can defend at Gobert or better levels while being a primary offensive weapon.....

[esvl]

3 years of Jokic vs 8 years of Wemby. I don’t see it as a hard choice from the NBA GM perspective.

[OxAndFox]

I mean, even if you think there's a 75% chance prime Wemby reaches the level of prime Jokic (aka multiple time MVP, option 1A on a championship team) and stays healthy consistently...doesn't that 25% chance give you some pause? I think that's where the disconnect for me is.

Its TRADE value