Unprotected draft trades are coming home to roost

[TimDunkin]

The funny thing to me is that a lot of the GMs that made these deals are still with the teams. Might show that it was really ownership pushing for short-sighted deals.

[Kiss of Death]

The Nets donated Tari Eason, too.
Along with Sheppard and the Suns picks.
The Rockets also still have the Nets 2027 swap.

Cam Whitmore was also part of the Harden trade, but it was the Bucks pick (that the Rockets later swapped for the Clippers pick).

Rockets and Thunder rebuilt well.
Will the Jazz and Nets do the same?

[wegotthabeet]

There need to be more pick trade restrictions. The imbalance between teams that have way too many and those that have near none is a joke. It clearly effects the opportunity and development of young guys coming into the league

Disagree completely. Hire a better GM if you don’t like the results of his work.

Agree. Teams shouldn’t be able to protect picks in my opinion.

[Blame Rasho]

I wonder what will happen to one of these picks that that will eventually be a top pick. Will we have a Darko level bust or Irving level star.

[Texas Chuck]

There need to be more pick trade restrictions. The imbalance between teams that have way too many and those that have near none is a joke. It clearly effects the opportunity and development of young guys coming into the league

Disagree completely. Hire a better GM if you don’t like the results of his work.

Agree. Teams shouldn’t be able to protect picks in my opinion.

So you are active on a trade board proposing an idea that would grind player movement to a halt? Yeah no that would make very few deals possible because very few players are worth unprotected picks.

This is the gamble. Teams push to win now knowing they will pay the piper later. Nothing for anyone to get upset about or talk about a broken system. Teams make choices. Some work, some don;t. Just like some teams pick in the top half of the lottery for a decade and never get good. No guarantees on those picks. Boston stands out because they hit, not because that's the standard.

[Texas Chuck]

And its the variance in value that greases trades. The team giving the pick feels like we are going to be pretty good and we aren't worried about losing a late pick. The team receiving them hopes they have a down year that year and they reap the rewards. If both ends weren't possible less deals get made. And you put some protections on them to cap the upside so good, but not great players can be traded.

Just not a problem needing solving.

[Mavrelous]

There absolutely is a problem, but also that doesn't mean in any way shape or form there should be a rule to prevent it, OP is talking about owners being more responsible with their gambles and understand the ramifications of such deals.

[winforlose]

We already have rules in place to give a first to a team every 2nd year. If you want to add more protections then do so to pick swaps. That said, I like the idea that teams have the freedom to exchange future players for current value. Look at the Wolves and Spurs. The Spurs didn’t want a high pick in this year’s draft, and the Wolves needed a PG of the future. The Wolves gave the Spurs far off assets and got a player they hope will be a star for them. Worst case is Dillingham busts and the Wolves hurt their future selves. Best case, Dillingham is a star and those assets become less valuable. Who won the trade, ask again in 4 or 5 years. Now you could limit the value of the swap and maybe the trade never happens, but both the Spurs and Wolves are worse off.

[Tallred23]

A major factor for the shift in the increased value of Draft picks, that’s not talked about enough, has been the stricter salary cap rules. The penalty’s for 1st and 2nd apron are brutal and make team building without draft picks even more difficult than it already was. These repeat tax payers get absolutely lambasted with penalties and no longer can get exceptions and trades become harder too. It was smart of the league to do this. I think it will overall boost parity like the NFL has with its hard cap.

[winforlose]

A major factor for the shift in the increased value of Draft picks, that’s not talked about enough, has been the stricter salary cap rules. The penalty’s for 1st and 2nd apron are brutal and make team building without draft picks even more difficult than it already was. These repeat tax payers get absolutely lambasted with penalties and no longer can get exceptions and trades become harder too. It was smart of the league to do this. I think it will overall boost parity like the NFL has with its hard cap.

It was too sudden in my opinion. The Warriors were pushing their tax bill higher and higher and the league decided to put an end to that type of model. But other teams already made moves to follow suit (it is a copy cat league.) To turn around and get penalized early into the process of doing the same thing has hurt and limited teams. It should have been more gradual to allow teams to reset their approach before being caught in the storm.

[giberish]

I wonder what will happen to one of these picks that that will eventually be a top pick. Will we have a Darko level bust or Irving level star.

Back in the day that happened a lot.

1979 #1 to LAL (Magic)
1980 #1 to Boston (JBC, but traded for Parish and #3 McHale)
1982 #1 to LAL (Worthy)
1984 #2 to Portland (Bowie )
1984 #5 (I think) to Philly (Barkley)
1986 #1 to Philly (Daugherty, but traded for pez)
1986 #2 to Boston (Bias )

[Tallred23]

I couldn’t agree more. A lot of teams are in a tough position the next few years. The Warriors did a fantastic job of exploiting all the precious loopholes. Many teams followed suit but were too late as those loopholes are now tied shut. I think the league is going to take 5 years to adjust to it all.

[SlimShady83]

Lakers will use at least 1 frp or both on a trade of some sort, for who and when I don't know. But my guess Is for a big man Kessler/Turner/D.Sharp/RB3 even, not many options out there for bigman for Lakers might have to over pay to get something?

[wegotthabeet]

Disagree completely. Hire a better GM if you don’t like the results of his work.

Agree. Teams shouldn’t be able to protect picks in my opinion.

So you are active on a trade board proposing an idea that would grind player movement to a halt? Yeah no that would make very few deals possible because very few players are worth unprotected picks.

This is the gamble. Teams push to win now knowing they will pay the piper later. Nothing for anyone to get upset about or talk about a broken system. Teams make choices. Some work, some don;t. Just like some teams pick in the top half of the lottery for a decade and never get good. No guarantees on those picks. Boston stands out because they hit, not because that's the standard.

The whole pick protection thing needs to be reformed to some extent. Something like Chicago holding the lottery protected first from Portland for a half a decade or longer does nothing but restrict movement. Portland can’t trade first round picks until that one pick conveys, so it doesn’t actually make trades more viable, it restricts them. In the NHL teams can protect picks for one season then it becomes unprotected if it doesn’t convey and that’s a good compromise. between both extremes.

[Texas Chuck]

That was a short-sighted move by Portland. We don't reform a whole system over that lol.

[ConSarnit]

Surveying the landscape of teams who splurged on shiny stars with their future without hedging, paints a very dark picture.
The Suns are stuck with a borderline PO team.
Bucks are old and non-competetive in the east.
Nets donated 3rd pick overall and had to buy back control of their picks at a high price.
Clippers are out of control the next 4 drafts with Kawhi on one knee and Harden is 35.
Hawks will send lottery 1st and still have unprotected swap and 1st down the pike.
Mavs will enter 4 years of no control over draft in 27, when Kyrie is 36 y/o

Bucks 1st trade got them a ring, but the 2nd backfired, Clippers and Suns are massive failure, Mavs got a finals runs but are injured now.
Wolves got WCF but had to dump KAT.
Only team that looks like they pulled off a good deal was the Cavs.
On the other end of spectrum, Rockets, Thunder, Spurs and Jazz are loaded with picks.

A cautionary tale that should alert owners that draft debt is costlier to their franchise than corporate bonds...

My bet is that it doesn't end up overly costly for most of these teams. BKN just outlined a blueprint for getting back your draft assets. A lot of these pick deficit teams have a premiere asset they can trade to get a lot of capital back.

Suns: Booker/KD
Bucks: Giannis
Mavs: Luka

Clipper might be able to rebuild on the fly because they are a premier market and free agents want to be in LA. Nets also have some appeal by being in NYC. Even the Hawks have relative youth on their side which should help them maintain at least middling status record-wise.

I would say that most teams have "outs" if they want them. They won't be able to recoup everything but they probably can recoup 3 years of their own draft (enough time for a rebuild) if they move their stars (who all have much more value than Bridges did). Obviously some team will hit the jackpot owning another team's picks but my guess is we won't see complete disasters like the BKN/BOS trade.

It seems like a lot of this pick debt is going to be settled based on which teams are willing to follow the BKN blueprint.

[Daddy 801]

Agree. Teams shouldn’t be able to protect picks in my opinion.

So you are active on a trade board proposing an idea that would grind player movement to a halt? Yeah no that would make very few deals possible because very few players are worth unprotected picks.

This is the gamble. Teams push to win now knowing they will pay the piper later. Nothing for anyone to get upset about or talk about a broken system. Teams make choices. Some work, some don;t. Just like some teams pick in the top half of the lottery for a decade and never get good. No guarantees on those picks. Boston stands out because they hit, not because that's the standard.

The whole pick protection thing needs to be reformed to some extent. Something like Chicago holding the lottery protected first from Portland for a half a decade or longer does nothing but restrict movement. Portland can’t trade first round picks until that one pick conveys, so it doesn’t actually make trades more viable, it restricts them. In the NHL teams can protect picks for one season then it becomes unprotected if it doesn’t convey and that’s a good compromise. between both extremes.

It a called letting teams do what is the their own best interests. You may agree or disagree with any particular move…but just let teams hire and fire GM’s and let them do their job. The amount of restrictions now is already too many.

[JeffFosters]

So you are active on a trade board proposing an idea that would grind player movement to a halt? Yeah no that would make very few deals possible because very few players are worth unprotected picks.

This is the gamble. Teams push to win now knowing they will pay the piper later. Nothing for anyone to get upset about or talk about a broken system. Teams make choices. Some work, some don;t. Just like some teams pick in the top half of the lottery for a decade and never get good. No guarantees on those picks. Boston stands out because they hit, not because that's the standard.

The whole pick protection thing needs to be reformed to some extent. Something like Chicago holding the lottery protected first from Portland for a half a decade or longer does nothing but restrict movement. Portland can’t trade first round picks until that one pick conveys, so it doesn’t actually make trades more viable, it restricts them. In the NHL teams can protect picks for one season then it becomes unprotected if it doesn’t convey and that’s a good compromise. between both extremes.

It a called letting teams do what is the their own best interests. You may agree or disagree with any particular move…but just let teams hire and fire GM’s and let them do their job. The amount of restrictions now is already too many.

I agree. The NBA is a competition after all, let teams make whatever decisions they want. Some are better at than others.

Ishbia will have to learn the hard way.

[Karmaloop]

The whole pick protection thing needs to be reformed to some extent. Something like Chicago holding the lottery protected first from Portland for a half a decade or longer does nothing but restrict movement. Portland can’t trade first round picks until that one pick conveys, so it doesn’t actually make trades more viable, it restricts them. In the NHL teams can protect picks for one season then it becomes unprotected if it doesn’t convey and that’s a good compromise. between both extremes.

I mean, teams have protections on picks where the obligations is extinguished or it converts to multiple SRPs. If a team is worried about being limited to trading their future picks, they need to make sure their obligations are finished.