Sneaky "crazy" pick giveaway you've NEVER heard of

wemby · Post #1 » by **wemby** » Sun Feb 2, 2025 3:56 am

OK, so here's the deal: Spurs own the unprotected Hawks FRP in the next draft, which is really, really good especially at the top. Hawks are in free fall, with their best player out for the season, so that pick is going to be high no matter what.

However, just by virtue of not having the pick, they will actively try to win as many games as possible, which could be costly for the Spurs in terms of where the pick ultimately lands. Just a couple wins could be the difference between 7th and 12th place, which changes the odds of landing a top 4 pick from (roughly) 32% to 7%. But there is no legal way to entice the Hawks to tank... or is there?

Basically what I propose is this: introduce a protection on slot 7. Yes, not top 7 protected, just a single slot: 7 protected. FOR FREE. If it ends up 1-6 or 8-30, Spurs keep it. So Hawks would only benefit from having it fall in that place.

But why would the Spurs want to gift the Hawks a pick that they'd own no matter what? Because by virtue of the lottery design, the worst you are the better the chances of landing a top 4 pick, and that's what is ultimately franchise changing for the Spurs, not a pick #7.

The Hawks can pick 7 if they finish 3rd (7%), 4th (16.8%), 5th (27.9%), 6th (28.5%), or 7th (19.7%). If they finish 8th or lower, they have no chance of keeping the pick by lottery design. Realistically they can't finish bottom 6, but they are 3 wins apart from 7th place (Blazers).

If they tank, they earn an almost 20% chance at a 7th pick. FOR FREE. In return, Spurs risk a small chance of missing on a 7th pick, but see their chances increase across the board (by attempting to finish 5-7, the pick will inevitably be better, especially in terms of top 4 chances.

This could, of course, be applied to any pick where there is a conflict of interest between teams: introduce an incentive for the other team to do as you desire. If there are legal concerns of modifying the protections for nothing, introduce a meaningless SRP swap with protection on the other part.

So what do you think. Am I crazy?

Myth · Post #2 » by **Myth** » Sun Feb 2, 2025 4:23 am

Very out of the box thinking and I like the concept quite a bit. With this specific example, I like it for the Spurs, but I wouldn’t attempt to go for it if I were the Hawks. I think the idea of working on development and winning culture outweigh the small chance of getting that 7th pick plus the idea that the 7th pick becomes worth it even if they do get it. I think the only way Hawks go for it is if they decline despite efforts to play well and at the end see a small sample of games could be worth tanking. But again, I like the concept, and it would take a different scenario than this particular one to get it done.

HornetJail · Post #3 » by **HornetJail** » Sun Feb 2, 2025 4:28 am

a middle of the pack team doesn't tank for a < 20% chance of having a pick convey that isn't at the top.

The Hawks are not going to tank while Trae Young is there.

The Hawks are not going to trade Trae Young because of the < 20% they can keep a pick

Furthermore, none of the teams in the bottom 7 are even gonna catch up to the Hawks if they do

wemby · Post #4 » by **wemby** » Sun Feb 2, 2025 4:31 am

HornetJail wrote:a middle of the pack team doesn't tank for a < 20% chance of having a pick convey that isn't at the top.

The Hawks are not going to tank while Trae Young is there.

The Hawks are not going to trade Trae Young because of the < 20% they can keep a pick

Right now Hawks are in 10th place and lost 8 games straight. Their season is a disaster and they have nothing to show for it, half a season of slightly worse performance won't change their culture, and a pick 7 can get them a better player than they got for the first pick last year or a high quality veteran that may make a difference for next season. I don't think that's an insignificant incentive.