LeBron for Durrant Lakers/Suns offseason deal

GoBobs · Post #1 » by **GoBobs** » Mon Feb 24, 2025 4:37 am

Why for Lakers: The outside shooting of Durrant really fits with Luka and it doesn't hurt that he is also a little bit younger. They will have likely just seen that a LeBron/Luka team not go to the finals so never hurts to try something different.

Why for the Suns: LeBron still has a lot left and can get more out of jumpshooters Booker and Beal than a third jumpshooter like Durrant.

ReggiesKnicks · Post #2 » by **ReggiesKnicks** » Mon Feb 24, 2025 4:48 am

LeBron would never leave Luka and LA to go to Phoenix

JustBuzzin · Post #3 » by **JustBuzzin** » Mon Feb 24, 2025 5:06 am

LeBron is currently better than KD despite being older.

No reason for the Lakers to make this trade.

Mr Puddles · Post #4 » by **Mr Puddles** » Tue Feb 25, 2025 12:25 am

I agree KD fits better next to Luka than LeBron but I don't think the Lakers have enough draft capital to get this deal done.

Post #5 » by **Slava** » Tue Feb 25, 2025 4:24 am

Mr Puddles wrote:I agree KD fits better next to Luka than LeBron but I don't think the Lakers have enough draft capital to get this deal done.

Why do the lakers add draft capital while trading the better player, even if LeBron waived his no trade clause?

Mr Puddles · Post #6 » by **Mr Puddles** » Tue Feb 25, 2025 6:15 am

Slava wrote:
Mr Puddles wrote:I agree KD fits better next to Luka than LeBron but I don't think the Lakers have enough draft capital to get this deal done.

Why do the lakers add draft capital while trading the better player, even if LeBron waived his no trade clause?

Because the Lakers are getting the better/younger player without a trade clause (assuming the Suns would inherent the trade clause like they did with Bradley Beal).

When acquiring a better, younger player with less contract restrictions, it typically costs the team.

babyjax13 · Post #7 » by **babyjax13** » Tue Feb 25, 2025 6:46 am

Mr Puddles wrote:
Slava wrote:
Mr Puddles wrote:I agree KD fits better next to Luka than LeBron but I don't think the Lakers have enough draft capital to get this deal done.

Why do the lakers add draft capital while trading the better player, even if LeBron waived his no trade clause?

Because the Lakers are getting the better/younger player without a trade clause (assuming the Suns would inherent the trade clause like they did with Bradley Beal).

When acquiring a better, younger player with less contract restrictions, it typically costs the team.

There really isn't an argument for Durant being clearly better than LeBron. He has a lower BPM, their raw stats and efficiency are similar with each having some advantages in different areas, they are both well past the age where you expect productivity, their contracts are about the same, but LeBron is massively more marketable. LeBron has an edge in most catch-all +/- statistics including BPM, CPM, and in DARKO which attempts to predict future value. Durant just has an edge in EPM. To me, all of it paints a picture that LeBron has a marginal edge in on court value, and still has a large edge in off court value. Both are fantastic but I think it is a pipedream to expect additional value in a Durant-LeBron swap.

babyjax13 · Post #8 » by **babyjax13** » Tue Feb 25, 2025 6:47 am

RE: the actual deal, I think LeBron only gets traded if he wants to be traded, and he won't want to be traded to Phoenix. I think the only realistic option is the Clippers.

Post #9 » by **gswhoops** » Tue Feb 25, 2025 7:03 am

This is a fun thought experiment but would never happen in real life

Mr Puddles · Post #10 » by **Mr Puddles** » Tue Feb 25, 2025 8:23 am

babyjax13 wrote:
Mr Puddles wrote:
Slava wrote:Why do the lakers add draft capital while trading the better player, even if LeBron waived his no trade clause?

Because the Lakers are getting the better/younger player without a trade clause (assuming the Suns would inherent the trade clause like they did with Bradley Beal).

When acquiring a better, younger player with less contract restrictions, it typically costs the team.

There really isn't an argument for Durant being clearly better than LeBron. He has a lower BPM, their raw stats and efficiency are similar with each having some advantages in different areas, they are both well past the age where you expect productivity, their contracts are about the same, but LeBron is massively more marketable. LeBron has an edge in most catch-all +/- statistics including BPM, CPM, and in DARKO which attempts to predict future value. Durant just has an edge in EPM. To me, all of it paints a picture that LeBron has a marginal edge in on court value, and still has a large edge in off court value. Both are fantastic but I think it is a pipedream to expect additional value in a Durant-LeBron swap.

I think you're over simplifying a bit that LeBron leads in "most catch-all metrics" :

When examining the stats you posted more closely:

CPM undervalues Durant’s off-ball movement, which generates 14.3 PPG via cuts and spot-ups.
BPM overweights assist volume, LeBron’s clear edge
DARKO: hasn't set foot in the NBA in years. I don't think he should be used as a reference for success.
EPM prioritizes spacing and scoring gravity, areas where Durant thrives.

Durant’s +12.1 net rating swing when on/off the court (vs. LeBron’s +9.4) highlights his irreplaceability in Phoenix’s flawed roster.

Like with all advanced stats, these metrics are tools, not verdicts. Also, expanding the stats over e.g. a three year period rather than just this season paints a different picture. Especially KD's TS% is significantly higher over that period.

Additionally, both guys have different roles, LeBron is being used more as a facilitator than KD, making some metrics appear more favorable for him due to team success and team role.

Lastly, I don't think their 4 year age gap is something to completely ignore.

Dr Aki · Post #11 » by **Dr Aki** » Tue Feb 25, 2025 9:07 am

Lebron's got a no trade clause, and I doubt he'd want to swap his current situation with KD's

RCM88x · Post #12 » by **RCM88x** » Tue Feb 25, 2025 3:59 pm

Makes zero sense from both sides. If the Lakers are going to spend assets, they don't have, to get younger, going for a soon to be 37 YO isn't the move lol.

Post #13 » by **theBigLip** » Wed Feb 26, 2025 4:07 pm

Suns obviously need to make a change. First step would be to not let their owner make stupid decisions (like getting Bradley Beal for all your draft picks).

Suns are going to have to blow it up. A few tweaks isn’t going to make them good. Trading for LBJ doesn’t fix anything. You’re stuck w Beal because of the no trade clause. So get young players and picks for KD and Booker. It will be painful, but that’s the cost of being an idiot.

kobe_vs_jordan · Post #14 » by **kobe_vs_jordan** » Wed Feb 26, 2025 5:06 pm

Lakers are owed compensation

kobe_vs_jordan · Post #15 » by **kobe_vs_jordan** » Wed Feb 26, 2025 5:07 pm

babyjax13 wrote:RE: the actual deal, I think LeBron only gets traded if he wants to be traded, and he won't want to be traded to Phoenix. I think the only realistic option is the Clippers.

Think clippers the last team he would go to at this stage of his rebuild. If he leave he wants to chase titles