Mock Off-Season: Washington Wizards

[ReggiesKnicks]

NBA Draft
#2 Pick (Ran Simulator) - Dylan Harper
#26 Pick - Donnie Freeman

Notable Free Agents
Malcolm Brogdon
Khris Middleton (Player Option, Picks up Option)
Richaun Holmes (250,000 Guaranteed)
Tristan Vukcevic
Justin Champagnie
Colby Jones (Waive)

Contract Negotiations
Re-sign Justin Champagnie 2/11
Re-Sign Tristan Vukcevic 2/5

Total Salary: 158,106,090
NBA Salary Cap: 154,647,000

Transactions
DeAndre Ayton + Matisse Thybulle (Taken into MLE) for Khris Middleton

John Collins for Marcus Smart + 2026 2nd (CHI) (Washington has more than enough 2nd to back-fill missing value, though the Chicago 2nd is likely between #31-35 and in a year Utah doesn't have a 2nd).

Total Salary: 176,903,752

Roster/Rotation
Dylan Harper/Carlton Carrington/Kyshawn George
Jordan Poole/Matisse Thybulle/Justin Champagnie/AJ Johnson
Bilal Coulibaly/Corey Kispert/Donnie Freeman
Alex Sarr/John Collins/Saddiq Bey
DeAndre Ayton/Tristan Vukcevic

Washington bolsters their front court with two expiring players who will ease the pain of their young Point Guards trying to succeed in the NBA. Ayton is a good Pick and Roll Center who allows Harper/Carlton continue to develop and grow their offense through the Pick and Roll with a competent complimentary piece in the action. John Collins is a talented Power Forward who fits with Alex Sarr and DeAndre Ayton offensively, potentially as a longer-term piece if all things fall in line.

The ultimate prize of the off-season is Dylan Harper, who is one of the best Guard prospects of the past decade as a 3-level scorer, good playmaker and incredible size at 6' 5" for a Point Guard.

I tried to ensure Washington stayed over the Salary Cap, as operating over the Salary Cap is a major advantage for a team trying to make trades and utilizing the MLE (even for an expiring).

[ChettheJet]

The only area I disagree on is the trades. I can see making a deal for one veteran but not both. Ayton is playing for his next contract, he probably should be seeing himself as a solid 4th option/role player but he probably wants to be seen as a #2 option for big money which he's never proven to be.If they pay him what happens when their young guys need that second contract? Collins is picking up that option and doesn't want to be seen as a 6th man, he wants to show he's worth another big contract when some of the young guys are due extensions. Take Collins and have Sarr be the 5, or get Ayton and bring in a cheaper role playing backup big.

[penbeast0]

I think Holmes probably is let go unless you need him for salary reasons to fill a lot of space. Classy guy, very professional, but not someone in the team's plans going forward and paying him 250,000 to play somewhere else is a lot better for the team than paying him 13 million plus for good vet minimum level production.

Also disagree on the Ayton trade. The front office has been playing Sarr at C, not PF, despite the team having more backup options at C. This is the skill set they are trying to get him to develop. I don't see them trading for Ayton to either move Sarr to a spot they don't see him at or be a malcontent playing off the bench in the role JV played for us this year.

I'd tank another year rather than get Collins as well but less of a problem with him as his fit with Sarr is a bit better.

[ReggiesKnicks]

I think Holmes probably is let go unless you need him for salary reasons to fill a lot of space. Classy guy, very professional, but not someone in the team's plans going forward and paying him 250,000 to play somewhere else is a lot better for the team than paying him 13 million plus for good vet minimum level production.

Also disagree on the Ayton trade. The front office has been playing Sarr at C, not PF, despite the team having more backup options at C. This is the skill set they are trying to get him to develop. I don't see them trading for Ayton to either move Sarr to a spot they don't see him at or be a malcontent playing off the bench in the role JV played for us this year.

I'd tank another year rather than get Collins as well but less of a problem with him as his fit with Sarr is a bit better.

I didn't mention him but I have 250K for him on the books and have him being waived.

Good to know about the Ayon Trade. That trade can just be omitted and Washington could take on some 2nds with Thybulle for their MLE.

[gswhoops]

The only area I disagree on is the trades. I can see making a deal for one veteran but not both. Ayton is playing for his next contract, he probably should be seeing himself as a solid 4th option/role player but he probably wants to be seen as a #2 option for big money which he's never proven to be.If they pay him what happens when their young guys need that second contract? Collins is picking up that option and doesn't want to be seen as a 6th man, he wants to show he's worth another big contract when some of the young guys are due extensions. Take Collins and have Sarr be the 5, or get Ayton and bring in a cheaper role playing backup big.

Ironically, Ayton would be much more likely to get a big payday if he embraced being a 4th option on offense, playing hard defense, rebounding, and setting screens.

[Texas Chuck]

The only area I disagree on is the trades. I can see making a deal for one veteran but not both. Ayton is playing for his next contract, he probably should be seeing himself as a solid 4th option/role player but he probably wants to be seen as a #2 option for big money which he's never proven to be.If they pay him what happens when their young guys need that second contract? Collins is picking up that option and doesn't want to be seen as a 6th man, he wants to show he's worth another big contract when some of the young guys are due extensions. Take Collins and have Sarr be the 5, or get Ayton and bring in a cheaper role playing backup big.

Ironically, Ayton would be much more likely to get a big payday if he embraced being a 4th option on offense, playing hard defense, rebounding, and setting screens.

Yep, he got that max offer sheet because Paul had shown up and he had embraced doing actual big man stuff and Phoenix was really good. Then he got his money and immediately stopped doing the things that led to the offer sheet.

Unless he really re-trenches next year, he's looking at playing for an exception on his next deal. And no scoring some points on a bad Blazers team isn't the way to another 9 figure contract.

[gswhoops]

The only area I disagree on is the trades. I can see making a deal for one veteran but not both. Ayton is playing for his next contract, he probably should be seeing himself as a solid 4th option/role player but he probably wants to be seen as a #2 option for big money which he's never proven to be.If they pay him what happens when their young guys need that second contract? Collins is picking up that option and doesn't want to be seen as a 6th man, he wants to show he's worth another big contract when some of the young guys are due extensions. Take Collins and have Sarr be the 5, or get Ayton and bring in a cheaper role playing backup big.

Ironically, Ayton would be much more likely to get a big payday if he embraced being a 4th option on offense, playing hard defense, rebounding, and setting screens.

Yep, he got that max offer sheet because Paul had shown up and he had embraced doing actual big man stuff and Phoenix was really good. Then he got his money and immediately stopped doing the things that led to the offer sheet.

Unless he really re-trenches next year, he's looking at playing for an exception on his next deal. And no scoring some points on a bad Blazers team isn't the way to another 9 figure contract.

100% putting up big counting numbers on a bad team is not going to convince anyone that he's worth a >MLE deal.

Feels like he's headed towards the Andre Drummond path of getting humbled and then re-emerging after a couple years as a solid backup C (or just playing himself out of the NBA and putting up numbers overseas)

[Astaluego]

Good job..but if I'm the Wizards and I have the 2nd pick I start by choosing Bailey..I wouldn't rush to improve the team..
I would offer the Suns to get Beal+FRP back for Middleton/Holmes... by the way where is Smart?

[JRoy]

NBA Draft
#2 Pick (Ran Simulator) - Dylan Harper
#26 Pick - Donnie Freeman

Notable Free Agents
Malcolm Brogdon
Khris Middleton (Player Option, Picks up Option)
Richaun Holmes (250,000 Guaranteed)
Tristan Vukcevic
Justin Champagnie
Colby Jones (Waive)

Contract Negotiations
Re-sign Justin Champagnie 2/11
Re-Sign Tristan Vukcevic 2/5

Total Salary: 158,106,090
NBA Salary Cap: 154,647,000

Transactions
DeAndre Ayton + Matisse Thybulle (Taken into MLE) for Khris Middleton

John Collins for Marcus Smart + 2026 2nd (CHI) (Washington has more than enough 2nd to back-fill missing value, though the Chicago 2nd is likely between #31-35 and in a year Utah doesn't have a 2nd).

Total Salary: 176,903,752

Roster/Rotation
Dylan Harper/Carlton Carrington/Kyshawn George
Jordan Poole/Matisse Thybulle/Justin Champagnie/AJ Johnson
Bilal Coulibaly/Corey Kispert/Donnie Freeman
Alex Sarr/John Collins/Saddiq Bey
DeAndre Ayton/Tristan Vukcevic

Washington bolsters their front court with two expiring players who will ease the pain of their young Point Guards trying to succeed in the NBA. Ayton is a good Pick and Roll Center who allows Harper/Carlton continue to develop and grow their offense through the Pick and Roll with a competent complimentary piece in the action. John Collins is a talented Power Forward who fits with Alex Sarr and DeAndre Ayton offensively, potentially as a longer-term piece if all things fall in line.

The ultimate prize of the off-season is Dylan Harper, who is one of the best Guard prospects of the past decade as a 3-level scorer, good playmaker and incredible size at 6' 5" for a Point Guard.

I tried to ensure Washington stayed over the Salary Cap, as operating over the Salary Cap is a major advantage for a team trying to make trades and utilizing the MLE (even for an expiring).

Pass for POR unless some other team wants KM to sit on their bench in street clothes.

[Tim Lehrbach]

I dunno, JRoy. Shaving $1.5 million off the payroll going from unwanted Ayton to unwanted Middleton isn't nothing. Pending other deals, it could end up being the difference between paying tax or not.

[nate33]

The Wizards still owe their 2026 pick FRP to NY (protected 1-8). It turns into two SRP's if it doesn't convey. It's a pretty sure bet the Wizards will tank in 2025-26 to avoid losing that pick. The Wizards won't be doing anything meaningful to help them win games in the short term like adding Ayton, Thybulle and Collins. And they certainly wouldn't give up any pick capital whatsoever to make it happen.

I know it's boring, but their offseason will basically be to stand pat. They will probably shop Middleton and Smart for any deal that brings back picks and worse contracts, but that's about it. If nothing materializes in the summer, they will look to move those guys for bad contracts and picks by the Trade Deadline.

The only other thing they'll probably do is to wait around until late in the free agency musical chairs game when the free agency money dries up, and then try and sign an overlooked guy to a market friendly deal with the intent to flip him by the Trade Deadline. Sort of like what they did with Valanciunas.

[ReggiesKnicks]

The Wizards still owe their 2026 pick FRP to NY (protected 1-8). It turns into two SRP's afterwards. It's a pretty sure bet the Wizards won't be doing anything meaningful to help them win games in the short term like adding Ayton, Thybulle and Collins. They're going to tank for one more year and add a 2026 lotto pick to the core.

I don't think either of these players meaningfully help them win games.

John Collins isn't winning games in Utah. Matisse Thybulle hasn't played winning basketball in over 2 years. DeAndre Ayton isn't a net-positive player, he just helps develop players in the P&R, notable young guards (See Scoot and Sharpe).

I know it's boring, but their offseason will basically be to stand pat. They will probably shop Middleton and Smart for any deal that brings back picks and worse contracts, but that's about it. If nothing materializes in the summer, they will look to move those guys for bad contracts and picks by the Trade Deadline.

I agree this is also a likely path. I don't consider my write-up drastic nor do I see it adding meaningful wins to take them out of the Bottom 3 in 2026 Lottery unless their Top 4 pick this draft is an instant impact player, which is rare.

[ReggiesKnicks]

I dunno, JRoy. Shaving $1.5 million off the payroll going from unwanted Ayton to unwanted Middleton isn't nothing. Pending other deals, it could end up being the difference between paying tax or not.

You're also shaving Thybulle's dead contract, though Blazer fans may think he has something to offer in the tank?

[JRoy]

I dunno, JRoy. Shaving $1.5 million off the payroll going from unwanted Ayton to unwanted Middleton isn't nothing. Pending other deals, it could end up being the difference between paying tax or not.

It’s not much savings for a guy that might be done playing productive minutes and impossible to move.

[JRoy]

I dunno, JRoy. Shaving $1.5 million off the payroll going from unwanted Ayton to unwanted Middleton isn't nothing. Pending other deals, it could end up being the difference between paying tax or not.

You're also shaving Thybulle's dead contract, though Blazer fans may think he has something to offer in the tank?

I am probably one of Thybulles biggest fans.

[ReggiesKnicks]

I dunno, JRoy. Shaving $1.5 million off the payroll going from unwanted Ayton to unwanted Middleton isn't nothing. Pending other deals, it could end up being the difference between paying tax or not.

You're also shaving Thybulle's dead contract, though Blazer fans may think he has something to offer in the tank?

I am probably one of Thybulles biggest fans.

Pessimistic, but only when you want

[JRoy]

You're also shaving Thybulle's dead contract, though Blazer fans may think he has something to offer in the tank?

I am probably one of Thybulles biggest fans.

Pessimistic, but only when you want

I wish.

[Tim Lehrbach]

I dunno, JRoy. Shaving $1.5 million off the payroll going from unwanted Ayton to unwanted Middleton isn't nothing. Pending other deals, it could end up being the difference between paying tax or not.

You're also shaving Thybulle's dead contract, though Blazer fans may think he has something to offer in the tank?

Oh yeah, all the more reason it's a slam dunk IMO.

[nate33]

The Wizards still owe their 2026 pick FRP to NY (protected 1-8). It turns into two SRP's afterwards. It's a pretty sure bet the Wizards won't be doing anything meaningful to help them win games in the short term like adding Ayton, Thybulle and Collins. They're going to tank for one more year and add a 2026 lotto pick to the core.

I don't think either of these players meaningfully help them win games.

John Collins isn't winning games in Utah. Matisse Thybulle hasn't played winning basketball in over 2 years. DeAndre Ayton isn't a net-positive player, he just helps develop players in the P&R, notable young guards (See Scoot and Sharpe).

Then why are the Wizards giving up SRP's to do these trades? It just adds salary and gives away pick capital, while making it harder to find minutes for all their young players.