T&T board top 10 worst contracts - Vote for #4

[giberish]

In this cap environment? There’s just no way that’s true. Zero.

How many people would truly be surprised if tomorrow an announcement is made that Embiid is retiring for medical reasons? I sure wouldn't. Does anyone know if his contract was insurable and, if so, to what extent? I can't imagine that that got through underwriting without Philly assuming a large portion of the risk.

Even in the few games this season in which he's suiting up, he's playing worse (by a large margin) than at any time after his rookie year. As punitive as this new CBA has shown to be, I suspect that the vast majority of franchises would balk at taking him for free. That extension last summer was a horrific unforced error on Morey's part.

I think a couple (5 or so) would take the gamble that he's currently playing hurt and that he can get back healthy and effective as he was last season. Expecting a couple good seasons and a couple bad seasons on the deal and hoping the good seasons were good enough to be worth it.

I wouldn't see any team take Murray. There's a guaranteed bad season at the start and the PO at the end kills any upside.

Vote: Murray
Nom: ??

[babyjax13]

Grant
Nnaji

[vxmike]

V: Ingram. Dude is simply never going to be healthy for any part of that 4/$160

N: Zion

[zimpy27]

Vote Grant

[brackdan70]

V Murray
n Butler

[brackdan70]

Vote: DeJounte
Nominate: KAT

Curious why KAT? Dude is on a full max sure, but also has a really strong positive impact. He’s got some flaws for sure but hard to see why you’d put him as a “worst” contract.

[Stanq]

Will happily vote Dejounte now that that monster albatross Joel is properly placed.

Seriously, all of you that object to him being 3rd and think “this is silly”, just go franchise-to-franchise in your head and ask “would this team be willing to absorb 55/59/64/69 million in salary for the next four years after this one?” for a guy that’s now over 30, looks awful on the court, is about to have a major surgery and miss a bunch of time, has performed considerably worse in the playoffs, plays in a way that makes more injuries to himself and others seem likely, has had foot and leg problems since college, and on and on and on.

Yea, he’s a former MVP. That’s nice, too bad he doesn’t look anything like that any more. You’d have to beyond desperate to hook your wagon up to the Embiid train right now. Just because there’s a what, 10% chance he fully recovers some time next season and plays at an All-NBA level at some point in the future (forget MVP, be a little realistic, please), is that worth the 90% chance you’re blowing a third of your payroll for next to nothing for the next four years? Who has the space and positioning to take that risk? And who would actually PAY to take that risk? He has extremely negative trade value.

V Dejounte Murray
N Lavine

Honestly? I think if you offered Embiid on his current contract to every team in the NBA for no cost other than absorbing his contract, 20+ would say yes (including Philadelphia).

I think if you made the same offer with Dejounte you'd get <5 takers (generously).

I agree with your take on Embiid, but disagree on Murray. He is young enough to bounce back, I see a lot of teams moving bad money just to take on his contract. Everyone outside of the contenders to be honest - Imagine teams like the Suns, Clippers or even the Magic.

[Stanq]

V: Grant

N: Zion

[toooskies]

V Jerami Grant, didn't realize he had fallen off as much as he has. Under 40% on twos, only 50% within three feet. If he didn't have a contract I'm not sure he'd be in the league much longer. Barely deserved his contract for his past/current production and it's dropped since.

N Lauri. Obstructive contract for a third option on a good team.

Also, just because a team would take a guy now (like Embiid) doesn't make his contract any better. A fringe-contender team might choose to derive value for a year or two but they will pay for it dearly on the back-end. Some other middling team like Chicago or Washington or Sacramento will find it to be a reasonable gamble to take a chance on the upside, if not just name recognition. Those teams could regret that very same contract in just a year or two.

[gswhoops]

Also, just because a team would take a guy now (like Embiid) doesn't make his contract any better. A fringe-contender team might choose to derive value for a year or two but they will pay for it dearly on the back-end. Some other middling team like Chicago or Washington or Sacramento will find it to be a reasonable gamble to take a chance on the upside, if not just name recognition. Those teams could regret that very same contract in just a year or two.

But that's part of the assessment, right? A team that is a fringe contender like you say might value the boost that Joel provides in the first 2 years more than the negative drag on their cap in the last 2. Like my Warriors for example, would absolutely take him to run out a Steph + Jimmy + Draymond + Embiid squad for two years. We're going to suck anyway after Steph retires so eating Joel's contract during those years isn't as negative.

Or a less dramatic example, a guy like Jrue Holiday who is probably going to be overpaid on the back end of his deal but is still valuable in the short term. Is he a bad contract now because he'll probably be overpaid in 2 years?

[tmorgan]

How is Embiid going to “provide a boost on the front end” of his deal? He’s hurt! He’s not playing! He’s going to have another surgery and miss a bunch of time recovering!

You get nothing now, maybe nothing later, all for a mere 35% of your payroll. Who can pass up paying for THAT? Everyone.

Jrue isn’t a great deal or anything, but yes, he can contribute now for a little payroll pain later. That’s why he isn’t on this list and Embiid is.

[Dr Positivity]

Grant 9

DeJounte 7

Kawhi 2

Ayton 1

Ingram 1


Nomination

Zion 4

Butler 3

LaVine 2

Markkanen 2

Nnaji 2
Middleton 1

Derozan 1

KAT 1

Ingram 1

KCP 1

[Sofia]

In this cap environment? There’s just no way that’s true. Zero.

How many people would truly be surprised if tomorrow an announcement is made that Embiid is retiring for medical reasons? I sure wouldn't. Does anyone know if his contract was insurable and, if so, to what extent? I can't imagine that that got through underwriting without Philly assuming a large portion of the risk.

Even in the few games this season in which he's suiting up, he's playing worse (by a large margin) than at any time after his rookie year. As punitive as this new CBA has shown to be, I suspect that the vast majority of franchises would balk at taking him for free. That extension last summer was a horrific unforced error on Morey's part.

This post was yesterdsy

[toooskies]

Also, just because a team would take a guy now (like Embiid) doesn't make his contract any better. A fringe-contender team might choose to derive value for a year or two but they will pay for it dearly on the back-end. Some other middling team like Chicago or Washington or Sacramento will find it to be a reasonable gamble to take a chance on the upside, if not just name recognition. Those teams could regret that very same contract in just a year or two.

But that's part of the assessment, right? A team that is a fringe contender like you say might value the boost that Joel provides in the first 2 years more than the negative drag on their cap in the last 2. Like my Warriors for example, would absolutely take him to run out a Steph + Jimmy + Draymond + Embiid squad for two years. We're going to suck anyway after Steph retires so eating Joel's contract during those years isn't as negative.

Or a less dramatic example, a guy like Jrue Holiday who is probably going to be overpaid on the back end of his deal but is still valuable in the short term. Is he a bad contract now because he'll probably be overpaid in 2 years?

This isn't "trade value" it's "worst contracts". Whoever pays Embiid has trade value-- if there's a 10% chance he returns to All-NBA consideration, then he might swing a title for you, but OTOH the other 90% of the time he's actively preventing you from winning a title.

Now, I don't know about his knee. We are possibly overreacting to this season's injury issues and assuming they will last forever when surgery might bring him back to his "old self". "Old" is only 1.5 years ago.

[SkyHook]

In this cap environment? There’s just no way that’s true. Zero.

How many people would truly be surprised if tomorrow an announcement is made that Embiid is retiring for medical reasons? I sure wouldn't. Does anyone know if his contract was insurable and, if so, to what extent? I can't imagine that that got through underwriting without Philly assuming a large portion of the risk.

Even in the few games this season in which he's suiting up, he's playing worse (by a large margin) than at any time after his rookie year. As punitive as this new CBA has shown to be, I suspect that the vast majority of franchises would balk at taking him for free. That extension last summer was a horrific unforced error on Morey's part.