76ers/Heat Draft night

[Astaluego]

This trade would only happen if both teams land where they are currently projected.

76ers
In:Heat FRP(now 10)/Jazquez/Warriors FRP
Out:76ers FRP

Why? In the range of the 76ers (5) and outside the Top 4, the Draft becomes flat and above all in that range guards are mostly projected (Johnson/Jakucionis/Fears/J.Richarson) and they are more than covered in that position (Mccain/Maxey/Grimes/Walker/Gordon...) and some holes to fill in other positions.

HEAT
In:76ers FRP
Out:Heat FRP/Warriors FRP/Jazquez

The Heat are moving up in the draft to get a high-potential guard, which I believe would be their biggest need.

[SA37]

So Miami is giving up 3 assets to move up 5 spots to where the Draft is "flat" and any of those players you mentioned could potentially fall to Miami at 10? I mean this makes no sense unless Miami is convinced that the player they are targeting is going to be a stud, but somehow will be passed over by the top-4 teams.

It is far more likely Miami uses Jaquez and its draft capital to make a run for a very available Durant or maybe FVV or Zion.

[wemby]

So Miami is giving up 3 assets to move up 5 spots to where the Draft is "flat" and any of those players you mentioned could potentially fall to Miami at 10? I mean this makes no sense unless Miami is convinced that the player they are targeting is going to be a stud, but somehow will be passed over by the top-4 teams.

It is far more likely Miami uses Jaquez and its draft capital to make a run for a very available Durant or maybe FVV or Zion.

Right now the proposed trade is: 5 for 12 + 22 + Jaquez. So basically 22 + Jaquez (neither of which are all that valuable, IMO) to move up from 12 to 5. That's not unreasonable, there's plenty of guys who will not make it to 12 who the Heat could be high on, say Khaman Maluach or Tre Johnson to name a few. Of course maybe the Heat is fine taking whomever is there at 12 and this is all moot, buI think overall the proposal is plausible.

[hugepatsfan]

Draft pick trades are hard to gauge because it really comes down to a team by team specific draft board. The way those valuations typically are, this is probably considered highway robbery in favor of the Heat. Again though, it really comes down to specific valuation of the players.

[SA37]

So Miami is giving up 3 assets to move up 5 spots to where the Draft is "flat" and any of those players you mentioned could potentially fall to Miami at 10? I mean this makes no sense unless Miami is convinced that the player they are targeting is going to be a stud, but somehow will be passed over by the top-4 teams.

It is far more likely Miami uses Jaquez and its draft capital to make a run for a very available Durant or maybe FVV or Zion.

Right now the proposed trade is: 5 for 12 + 22 + Jaquez. So basically 22 + Jaquez (neither of which are all that valuable, IMO) to move up from 12 to 5. That's not unreasonable, there's plenty of guys who will not make it to 12 who the Heat could be high on, say Khaman Maluach or Tre Johnson to name a few. Of course maybe the Heat is fine taking whomever is there at 12 and this is all moot, buI think overall the proposal is plausible.

Well, part of my response was to this idea where from 5 on the Draft was "flat", which imo means you're as likely to get a good player at 5 as you would at 10 or 12. If there is a guy Miami really likes at 5, sure, maybe Miami will convince themselves they see/know something everyone else can't see or doesn't know. But historically, Miami has not bet on youngsters/draft picks, but has rather prioritized FA and trades and found plenty of young talent from the junk pile that is the undrafted.

Durant, Zion, or FVV would very likely make Miami much more formidable than whoever Miami could get at 5, so I see Miami using its assets for that type of acquisition versus trying to move up in the Draft -- and Miami will need those draft assets and possibly Jaquez to make a run at those kinds of players and/or to potentially get upgrades to guys like Rozier, Duncan Robinson, or Kyle Anderson.

I do get there are people who would argue that Miami was a play-in team with Jimmy Butler and wouldn't be significantly better with Durant or Zion and, thus, Miami is throwing good money after bad in a sense. But my view is not what I want to see, but rather what I the direction I think Miami will go in.

[HotelVitale]

So Miami is giving up 3 assets to move up 5 spots to where the Draft is "flat" and any of those players you mentioned could potentially fall to Miami at 10? I mean this makes no sense unless Miami is convinced that the player they are targeting is going to be a stud, but somehow will be passed over by the top-4 teams.

It is far more likely Miami uses Jaquez and its draft capital to make a run for a very available Durant or maybe FVV or Zion.

Right now the proposed trade is: 5 for 12 + 22 + Jaquez. So basically 22 + Jaquez (neither of which are all that valuable, IMO) to move up from 12 to 5. That's not unreasonable, there's plenty of guys who will not make it to 12 who the Heat could be high on, say Khaman Maluach or Tre Johnson to name a few. Of course maybe the Heat is fine taking whomever is there at 12 and this is all moot, buI think overall the proposal is plausible.

Well, part of my response was to this idea where from 5 on the Draft was "flat", which imo means you're as likely to get a good player at 5 as you would at 10 or 12. If there is a guy Miami really likes at 5, sure, maybe Miami will convince themselves they see/know something everyone else can't see or doesn't know. But historically, Miami has not bet on youngsters/draft picks, but has rather prioritized FA and trades and found plenty of young talent from the junk pile that is the undrafted.

A) yes no point in entertaining this if the Heat think 5-12 is legit flat and any guy is good as the others and b) the Heat’s recent history of getting some teams together without high draft picks doesn’t mean they don’t like it as a strategy. (Also if they don’t prize picks and recent picks that would make this neutral since this deal involves only picks and recent picks.)

[jredsaz]

This is a classic “if the team loves a guy they try to move up” type of trade. The value isn’t bad. It’s just a hard thing to predict.

[SA37]

Right now the proposed trade is: 5 for 12 + 22 + Jaquez. So basically 22 + Jaquez (neither of which are all that valuable, IMO) to move up from 12 to 5. That's not unreasonable, there's plenty of guys who will not make it to 12 who the Heat could be high on, say Khaman Maluach or Tre Johnson to name a few. Of course maybe the Heat is fine taking whomever is there at 12 and this is all moot, buI think overall the proposal is plausible.

Well, part of my response was to this idea where from 5 on the Draft was "flat", which imo means you're as likely to get a good player at 5 as you would at 10 or 12. If there is a guy Miami really likes at 5, sure, maybe Miami will convince themselves they see/know something everyone else can't see or doesn't know. But historically, Miami has not bet on youngsters/draft picks, but has rather prioritized FA and trades and found plenty of young talent from the junk pile that is the undrafted.

A) yes no point in entertaining this if the Heat think 5-12 is legit flat and any guy is good as the others and b) the Heat’s recent history of getting some teams together without high draft picks doesn’t mean they don’t like it as a strategy. (Also if they don’t prize picks and recent picks that would make this neutral since this deal involves only picks and recent picks.)

I don't follow college basketball, so I have no idea if the Draft beyond the top-4 is "flat", but it was the premise with regards to guards put forth by the OP.

In the Riley era, Miami has traded away a fair amount of draft picks to acquire veterans and FA. Even when Miami has had picks, they have mainly been out of the lottery because Miami has been a pretty successful franchise. Miami has proven over and over again it can recycle vets, squeeze out unthinkable production from journeyman, develop late 1st/2nd round picks and/or undrafted guys. When you do this over a 30 year window, it says a lot about your ability to spot talent that fits.

I'm not 100% sure on this, but at least off the top of my head, I can't remember Miami ever trading up in the Draft since Riley has been in charge. The only time I can remember Miami reportedly was trying hard to move up in the Draft was when it wanted to draft Lamar Odom... a quarter of a century ago.

I suppose my argument here is simply that Miami probably doesn't have enough assets to move up in the Draft AND go after a big FA, basically Durant. And if Miami has to go for one or the other, Miami will prioritize Durant.

[BBallFreak]

Well, part of my response was to this idea where from 5 on the Draft was "flat", which imo means you're as likely to get a good player at 5 as you would at 10 or 12. If there is a guy Miami really likes at 5, sure, maybe Miami will convince themselves they see/know something everyone else can't see or doesn't know. But historically, Miami has not bet on youngsters/draft picks, but has rather prioritized FA and trades and found plenty of young talent from the junk pile that is the undrafted.

A) yes no point in entertaining this if the Heat think 5-12 is legit flat and any guy is good as the others and b) the Heat’s recent history of getting some teams together without high draft picks doesn’t mean they don’t like it as a strategy. (Also if they don’t prize picks and recent picks that would make this neutral since this deal involves only picks and recent picks.)

I don't follow college basketball, so I have no idea if the Draft beyond the top-4 is "flat", but it was the premise with regards to guards put forth by the OP.

In the Riley era, Miami has traded away a fair amount of draft picks to acquire veterans and FA. Even when Miami has had picks, they have mainly been out of the lottery because Miami has been a pretty successful franchise. Miami has proven over and over again it can recycle vets, squeeze out unthinkable production from journeyman, develop late 1st/2nd round picks and/or undrafted guys. When you do this over a 30 year window, it says a lot about your ability to spot talent that fits.

I'm not 100% sure on this, but at least off the top of my head, I can't remember Miami ever trading up in the Draft since Riley has been in charge. The only time I can remember Miami reportedly was trying hard to move up in the Draft was when it wanted to draft Lamar Odom... a quarter of a century ago.

I suppose my argument here is simply that Miami probably doesn't have enough assets to move up in the Draft AND go after a big FA, basically Durant. And if Miami has to go for one or the other, Miami will prioritize Durant.

Yeah, that's my thought, too. They're going to try and get a star. I don't see them going for that draft pick.

[Foshan]

I agree that it's not Miami's path
I also don't like the value for the Sixers, IMO they need BPA for their future, and if that's a guard then you look at making other moves.

[Envelopes]

Can Miami trade the pick? Unless there is a deal with OKC to move the 26 pick to later? Not sure why they would do that.
There' also around a 35% chance the 76ers pick is OKCs?

[Scoot McGroot]

Can Miami trade the pick? Unless there is a deal with OKC to move the 26 pick to later? Not sure why they would do that.
There' also around a 35% chance the 76ers pick is OKCs?

They could trade the pick on or after draft night so long as the 1st round is over, as that would then be a “past pick” and not a “future pick” and wouldn’t affect Stepien Rules calculations.

Would also assume since this scenario is happening draft night that PHI had kept the pick from okc.

[brackdan70]

I can see it if Edgecombe is available.
Otherwise I think Miami can get the player they want at 10 just fine vs 5.

[Flash4thewin]

In what universe is Jaquez a valuable asset? The 76ers hang up. Also this is not a typical miami move. If Jaquez and picks are the alleged foundation to get a star player, be prepared to be disappointed this offseason.

[HotelVitale]

Well, part of my response was to this idea where from 5 on the Draft was "flat", which imo means you're as likely to get a good player at 5 as you would at 10 or 12. If there is a guy Miami really likes at 5, sure, maybe Miami will convince themselves they see/know something everyone else can't see or doesn't know. But historically, Miami has not bet on youngsters/draft picks, but has rather prioritized FA and trades and found plenty of young talent from the junk pile that is the undrafted.

A) yes no point in entertaining this if the Heat think 5-12 is legit flat and any guy is good as the others and b) the Heat’s recent history of getting some teams together without high draft picks doesn’t mean they don’t like it as a strategy. (Also if they don’t prize picks and recent picks that would make this neutral since this deal involves only picks and recent picks.)

I don't follow college basketball, so I have no idea if the Draft beyond the top-4 is "flat", but it was the premise with regards to guards put forth by the OP.

In the Riley era, Miami has traded away a fair amount of draft picks to acquire veterans and FA. Even when Miami has had picks, they have mainly been out of the lottery because Miami has been a pretty successful franchise. Miami has proven over and over again it can recycle vets, squeeze out unthinkable production from journeyman, develop late 1st/2nd round picks and/or undrafted guys. When you do this over a 30 year window, it says a lot about your ability to spot talent that fits.

I'm not 100% sure on this, but at least off the top of my head, I can't remember Miami ever trading up in the Draft since Riley has been in charge. The only time I can remember Miami reportedly was trying hard to move up in the Draft was when it wanted to draft Lamar Odom... a quarter of a century ago.

I suppose my argument here is simply that Miami probably doesn't have enough assets to move up in the Draft AND go after a big FA, basically Durant. And if Miami has to go for one or the other, Miami will prioritize Durant.

My point was that it seems like you’re locking Miami into a strict strategy when they’ve maybe just been doing what makes sense in the moment. It’s a big leap between ‘they haven’t had high picks and have had star FA/trade opportunities’ to ‘they don’t believe in high picks and only want to pursue star FAs/trades.’ I don’t think any team is that strict these days.

Also their real successes as a franchise have been due to drafting D Wade—all their titles are 100% the result of that—and I don’t think they’ve forgotten that. Drafting a star is just difficult and high variance, and if you don’t get a legit star it might mean some crappy years that the Heat would try to avoid. But the Heat are aware of the risk/reward there like everyone else and if the right opportunity comes (if they love who’s at #5) then I don’t think you should assume they won’t go for it based on history.

It’s also a leap from ‘they might go for KD over a trade like this’ to ‘they won’t ever make a trade like this.’ The former that makes sense, but to me then the response would then be ‘they’d probably only be into this if they can’t trade for KD this off-season.’ And not ‘KD might be available so they’d never consider drafting in the top 5.’