Houston moving Reed, Cam, 14 - Harper? Future pick offers?

[Xman]

I like the potential of Harper but we aren’t talking about Wemby or even Flagg.
33 percent threes and 75 percent free throw. 6’6.
Guy could be really good or just another guy.
The comments about Reed in this post could be applied to Harper at this time next year.

There is a clear drop in value from one to two and again to three. The fourth pick doesn’t have much more value than the tenth pick since it seems the next seven guys could go in any order. Frankly, due to team depth, only the first two picks interest Houston.
If that can’t happen, what future picks would someone give for 10?
(I would say Reed and Whitmore also but I think they have more value to Rox than lowball offers).

Would Philly send 2028 LAC first and 2026 worst of lac/okc/hou?
Would Utah send that 2031 phoenix first?
Would Charlotte give the Miami and Dallas 2027 firsts for a lottery pick now?
Other?

[ReggiesKnicks]

Houston is the second seed, they are too good and they don't have time to develop prospects..

This isn't actually how teams develop players.

The Celtics has developed Sam Hauser and Payton Pritchard over the past 3-4 seasons while making the NBA Finals twice and ECF once.
The Lakers have developed Reaves while having both LeBron and AD over the past 3 seasons.
The Timberwolves developed Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Naz Reid and Jaden McDaniels while acquiring Rudy Gobert and making the WCF this past seson.
We (Indiana) are developing Mathurin and Jarace Walker while making the ECF last year and having a core of Haliburton/Siakam.

OKC and Cleveland have also developed players while being great. Golden State has developed players, as has Memphis.

In fact, it is the BEST teams in the NBA that develop players WHILE winning. Teams on the decline, like Milwaukee and Phoenix, failed to develop and then stopped winning. The Warriors failed to develop and struggled in 2023 and 2024 but have since seen upward development in younger players (adding Butler helps), but not GSW has depth, which is primarily rookie-scale contracts (Post, Kuminga, Moody, Podz).

Houston does have time to develop players, but they need to be selective about which ones they develop. However, they don't need to rush and simply sell low on their younger players with potential.

I don't even think Shepard is a bust, he's just buried in the rotation, and without opportunities to make mistakes and learn, it's very difficult to develop.. they have to go on the hunt for an offensive star, even if you have to overpay.

They don't need to. They can develop one or pay a fair price for an aging one as they develop a player who has a skill-set which could become an offensive star (Reed Sheppard has a skill-set with an incredibly high ceiling).

[tmorgan]

Houston is the second seed, they are too good and they don't have time to develop prospects..

This isn't actually how teams develop players.

The Celtics has developed Sam Hauser and Payton Pritchard over the past 3-4 seasons while making the NBA Finals twice and ECF once.
The Lakers have developed Reaves while having both LeBron and AD over the past 3 seasons.
The Timberwolves developed Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Naz Reid and Jaden McDaniels while acquiring Rudy Gobert and making the WCF this past seson.
We (Indiana) are developing Mathurin and Jarace Walker while making the ECF last year and having a core of Haliburton/Siakam.

OKC and Cleveland have also developed players while being great. Golden State has developed players, as has Memphis.

In fact, it is the BEST teams in the NBA that develop players WHILE winning. Teams on the decline, like Milwaukee and Phoenix, failed to develop and then stopped winning. The Warriors failed to develop and struggled in 2023 and 2024 but have since seen upward development in younger players (adding Butler helps), but not GSW has depth, which is primarily rookie-scale contracts (Post, Kuminga, Moody, Podz).

Houston does have time to develop players, but they need to be selective about which ones they develop. However, they don't need to rush and simply sell low on their younger players with potential.

I don't even think Shepard is a bust, he's just buried in the rotation, and without opportunities to make mistakes and learn, it's very difficult to develop.. they have to go on the hunt for an offensive star, even if you have to overpay.

They don't need to. They can develop one or pay a fair price for an aging one as they develop a player who has a skill-set which could become an offensive star (Reed Sheppard has a skill-set with an incredibly high ceiling).

Good post.

You actually don’t even have to go outside Houston for examples. Amen is developing. Jabari has done some developing, perhaps not with the ceiling Houston hoped for. Sengun was a great pick and is developing.

But yeah, to combine the concepts, you CAN have too many guys to develop at once, and Houston may be there. They needed FVV and Brooks to ‘show them the way’, but vets require minutes. Waiting until you draft a guy and then not play him is an issue, though. I assume Sheppard struggled a bit in practice early on, because not finding early minutes for a #3 pick is a massive blunder otherwise. He HAS lost value, that’s just the way it works.

The time for a consolidation trade is definitely now. If Houston has faith in their scouting and development teams, as they should, given the results, then you need to trade (as the centerpiece) someone that actually plays and has showed something. To me, that guy is Jabari, or perhaps Sengun if the prize is big enough. Those guys have value well beyond Cam and Reed, and if you believe in your process, you can then properly utilize Sheppard and perhaps Whitmore in the future.

That and move on from Jalen Green. I know, I know, the good games are really good. Maybe you can get more than you think for him.

[gswhoops]

I like the potential of Harper but we aren’t talking about Wemby or even Flagg.
33 percent threes and 75 percent free throw. 6’6.
Guy could be really good or just another guy.
The comments about Reed in this post could be applied to Harper at this time next year.

Lol my dude you’re the one who proposed trading for him. Don’t be that guy who turns around and trashes a player because your lowball offer got rejected

[babyjax13]

This feels like a package for the third pick if you love a prospect there.

[JRoy]

I like the potential of Harper but we aren’t talking about Wemby or even Flagg.
33 percent threes and 75 percent free throw. 6’6.
Guy could be really good or just another guy.
The comments about Reed in this post could be applied to Harper at this time next year.

There is a clear drop in value from one to two and again to three. The fourth pick doesn’t have much more value than the tenth pick since it seems the next seven guys could go in any order. Frankly, due to team depth, only the first two picks interest Houston.
If that can’t happen, what future picks would someone give for 10?
(I would say Reed and Whitmore also but I think they have more value to Rox than lowball offers).

Would Philly send 2028 LAC first and 2026 worst of lac/okc/hou?
Would Utah send that 2031 phoenix first?
Would Charlotte give the Miami and Dallas 2027 firsts for a lottery pick now?
Other?

When does Sheppard become a lead guard with good size?

[luciano-davidwesley]

I think the proposed package gets you in the 4-8 range in this year's draft.

[LarsV8]

Sheppard's draw is that he has the toolbox to be an elite shooter in movement, which is an immensely valuable skill. He also has good hands defensively, and solid BBIQ. That is where his value comes from. Couple that with his age, and contract, we call that a player with great upside. He put on a nice display of this, in his most recent outing against the Jazz, including a nifty step back, which I didn't even know he had.

Watch on YouTube

There is this new paradigm of people expecting rookies to come in and contribute immediately or be labeled a bust with no value. That is not how it works. We aren't dealing with 22 and 23 year old rookies anymore, these are 19 and 20 year olds, who will take years to mold into good NBA players, specifically on good teams. There is always exceptions, Trae Young for example, is a notable one. And other guys who are more defensive oriented or have simple assignments, like centers, can be more easily integrated. But for the most part, rookies are going to suck.

It is one thing to be on a tanking team, draft a 19 year old kid, and then have the luxury to throw them into the fire, design plays and sets to maximize him. On any given night, you can have them focus on one particular thing, and tinker etc based on how its going. As the outcome of the game doesn't matter, missed defensive assignments, learning scouting reports, etc, don't really matter. They can really just focus on what thing at a time, and the coaching staff can experiment.

It is quite another to have a 20 year old, on an already good team, that already has an offensive system, and set hierarchies, etc. You can let them get out there for spot minutes to see if they can contribute, but in almost all situations they will look clueless, as the instincts and experience just aren't there yet. Their sets may not be what they endlessly practiced in college or high school, the spots where they shoot might not be what they are used too, etc. A good team is not going to modify what is working to try and integrate a teenager.

What tends to happen in these situations, is those guys get opportunities when a significant injury occurs, and there is literally no other options, or if they get minutes in garbage time, when the coaches have more freedom to deviate from a competitive atmosphere.

So yea, anyone trying to claim Reed has no value is just plain ignorant. A particular team may not value him all that much, or a fan who does nothing but pull up stats might dismiss his value, but Houston is not looking to dump Reed, we know what we have. Frankly, if you dropped him into the draft today, with a year of NBA experience, he would likely go third.

[ejftw]

I like the potential of Harper but we aren’t talking about Wemby or even Flagg.
33 percent threes and 75 percent free throw. 6’6.
Guy could be really good or just another guy.
The comments about Reed in this post could be applied to Harper at this time next year.

So, why try to make an offer to snag Harper if he's gonna end up being a meh quasi prospect like Sheppard?


Edit: Also for the post about Reed going third after being given a year of NBA experience while calling others ignorant is quite hilarious. I'm sure most players, if allowed to re enter after a year of experience while getting a new four year rookie deal that are projected high would continue to go....high!

[Tim Lehrbach]

There is a clear drop in value from one to two and again to three. The fourth pick doesn’t have much more value than the tenth pick since it seems the next seven guys could go in any order.

It's that time of year, folks!

[K_chile22]

Sheppards value is def lower bc he barely got to play vs if he played a ton of low leverage minutes to chuck so there's no point in trying to use him as a high level asset, most people won't bite so just keep him, passing and stocks came through as a rookie, shot didn't but sample is miniscule and not worried about his shooting, just needs to work on handle and positional defense (will always be small obviously but most all rookie guards are disasters in general)

[wemby]

I like the potential of Harper but we aren’t talking about Wemby or even Flagg.
33 percent threes and 75 percent free throw. 6’6.
Guy could be really good or just another guy.
The comments about Reed in this post could be applied to Harper at this time next year.

There is a clear drop in value from one to two and again to three. The fourth pick doesn’t have much more value than the tenth pick since it seems the next seven guys could go in any order. Frankly, due to team depth, only the first two picks interest Houston.
If that can’t happen, what future picks would someone give for 10?
(I would say Reed and Whitmore also but I think they have more value to Rox than lowball offers).

Would Philly send 2028 LAC first and 2026 worst of lac/okc/hou?
Would Utah send that 2031 phoenix first?
Would Charlotte give the Miami and Dallas 2027 firsts for a lottery pick now?
Other?

I would send Spurs own pick (8th?) and the Hawks (12-16?) plus any combination of Sochan, Keldon Johnson... maybe even Vassell or a future pick, for Dylan Harper. Other than Wemby, Fox and Castle, everything is on the table (just not everything together, obviously).

[JRoy]

Sheppards value is def lower bc he barely got to play vs if he played a ton of low leverage minutes to chuck so there's no point in trying to use him as a high level asset, most people won't bite so just keep him, passing and stocks came through as a rookie, shot didn't but sample is miniscule and not worried about his shooting, just needs to work on handle and positional defense (will always be small obviously but most all rookie guards are disasters in general)

That’s fair.

[165bows]

Houston kind of needs a consolidation deal. Sheppard was third pick and Whitmore have shown skills but are bench locked. Pick 14 is probably looking at same issue. Obviously, a “star” deal is the goal just like every team wants.
But, if that is not available, options.

1- trade 14, Reed and Cam for future picks.
Curious to see what people would offer.

2- move up for Harper. A scoring pg/sg with his kind of potential might make sense.
Would 14, Reed, Cam for second pick be enough?
Houston has phx pick in 2027 along with top picks of hou/dal/phx in 2029. Could add second best of 2029 or would it need to be more? Or, is it too much already?

Idk what the answer is but it's an interesting situation for potential moves for sure.

What's Houston's $ look like in terms of what they can take back?

[Astaluego]

They need to consolidate themselves with a star. In my opinion, they are much closer to the championship than it might seem... at first, I didn't like the idea of KD, but I like him more and more for them... in a supposed offer for KD, which veteran between Brooks/FVV would Houston prefer to keep?