Rank The Trade Value: LaMelo Ball, Zion Williamson, Kevin Durant, Domantas Sabonis, Lauri Markkanen

[tester551]

Honest question, what's the argument in favor of Lauri over players like (for example) MPJ (better stats in practically everything) or even Lavine?

I don't see any reason.

Lauri had 1.5 to 2 years of really good playing that he leveraged into a huge contract.

[tester551]

Lauri
Durant
LaMelo
Sabonis
Zion

Strong take. It's almost inverse of what is appearing to be the consensus in this thread.

It's definitely the outlier of the thread, but I don't see anything remotely resembling consensus here. Opinions seem all over the place.

I definitely think there is a consensus here...

I went back through and counted 27 people who gave their opinions. This is how Lauri ranked:

1 (most trade value): 1 vote
2: 2 votes
3: 5 votes
4: 4 votes
5 (least trade value): 15 votes

More than half the posters are not sold on Lauri

[Cappy_Smurf]

Strong take. It's almost inverse of what is appearing to be the consensus in this thread.

It's definitely the outlier of the thread, but I don't see anything remotely resembling consensus here. Opinions seem all over the place.

I definitely think there is a consensus here...

I went back through and counted 27 people who gave their opinions. This is how Lauri ranked:

1 (most trade value): 1 vote
2: 2 votes
3: 5 votes
4: 4 votes
5 (least trade value): 15 votes

More than half the posters are not sold on Lauri

And last year this board was convinced Kessler had regressed and wasn't that good. When players are playing on a team they know wants to lose, it hampers their motivation. Lauri is suffering from recency bias from a year when he has nothing to play for.

This will be a good thread to come back to as soon as Utah starts competing again. I would put Lauri 2nd on this list.

[NYG]

It's definitely the outlier of the thread, but I don't see anything remotely resembling consensus here. Opinions seem all over the place.

I definitely think there is a consensus here...

I went back through and counted 27 people who gave their opinions. This is how Lauri ranked:

1 (most trade value): 1 vote
2: 2 votes
3: 5 votes
4: 4 votes
5 (least trade value): 15 votes

More than half the posters are not sold on Lauri

And last year this board was convinced Kessler had regressed and wasn't that good. When players are playing on a team they know wants to lose, it hampers their motivation. Lauri is suffering from recency bias from a year when he has nothing to play for.

This will be a good thread to come back to as soon as Utah starts competing again. I would put Lauri 2nd on this list.

I think Lauri has the lowest ceiling of the list even if everything went perfectly for all 5 players

[the_process]

I definitely think there is a consensus here...

I went back through and counted 27 people who gave their opinions. This is how Lauri ranked:

1 (most trade value): 1 vote
2: 2 votes
3: 5 votes
4: 4 votes
5 (least trade value): 15 votes

More than half the posters are not sold on Lauri

And last year this board was convinced Kessler had regressed and wasn't that good. When players are playing on a team they know wants to lose, it hampers their motivation. Lauri is suffering from recency bias from a year when he has nothing to play for.

This will be a good thread to come back to as soon as Utah starts competing again. I would put Lauri 2nd on this list.

I think Lauri has the lowest ceiling of the list even if everything went perfectly for all 5 players

That's Sabonis because we know it's nigh impossible to win with him. Remember how everybody ragged on Beal a few years ago in Washington because he was just putting up empty numbers? Dude was something close to 30-5-5.

Anyway, if you're going highest absolute remaining ceiling the list is:

Zion
LaMelo
Durant
Lauri
Sabonis

[SkyHook]

Strong take. It's almost inverse of what is appearing to be the consensus in this thread.

It's definitely the outlier of the thread, but I don't see anything remotely resembling consensus here. Opinions seem all over the place.

I definitely think there is a consensus here...

I went back through and counted 27 people who gave their opinions. This is how Lauri ranked:

1 (most trade value): 1 vote
2: 2 votes
3: 5 votes
4: 4 votes
5 (least trade value): 15 votes

More than half the posters are not sold on Lauri

Ah, you meant consensus solely with regard to Lauri. That's valid from the responses here. And probably less about not being sold on Lauri in general, just in relation to his contract as compared to the other four.

[nomansland]

Strong take. It's almost inverse of what is appearing to be the consensus in this thread.

It's definitely the outlier of the thread, but I don't see anything remotely resembling consensus here. Opinions seem all over the place.

I definitely think there is a consensus here...

I went back through and counted 27 people who gave their opinions. This is how Lauri ranked:

1 (most trade value): 1 vote
2: 2 votes
3: 5 votes
4: 4 votes
5 (least trade value): 15 votes

More than half the posters are not sold on Lauri

I'm not going to do the work because I'm a lazy sod, but it'd be interesting to see the tallies for the rest of the players.

[Kiss of Death]

Sabonis
Durant
Zion
LaMelo
Lauri

Jazz should have traded Lauri when his value was high.
His contract is ugly if he doesn’t improve by a lot.

[Astaluego]

Which pick in the next draft do you think each one is worth?
Lamelo? I'm not sure, pick 2? Would you rather have Harper or Lamelo?
I still think Lamelo probably has the higher ceiling. I'm sure he's worth it in principle, more than Bailey/Jakucionis/Fears, etc. ....

Sabonis? I'll say pick 4. I'd rather take a chance on any of the top 3, maybe I'd even take Edgecombe.

KD? I'll say pick 4 too. He's the best player by far, but too old. Zion? Pick 4 too, maybe pick 5?

Lauri? I think the gap here is huge... I think around 8?

Lamelo
KD/Sabonis
Zion

Lauri

[NYG]

I could see the Jazz trying to get Lauri's value a bit higher before exploring deals and I don't see the Hornets having any real reason to trade Ball if he doesn't ask out. Sabonis meanwhile has some noise about being unhappy, KD is definitely getting traded and I could see the Pelicans finally just cutting the cord on Zion and going another direction as a franchise especially if they land a top 3 pick.

[NYG]

Which pick in the next draft do you think each one is worth?
Lamelo? I'm not sure, pick 2? Would you rather have Harper or Lamelo?
I still think Lamelo probably has the higher ceiling. I'm sure he's worth it in principle, more than Bailey/Jakucionis/Fears, etc. ....

Sabonis? I'll say pick 4. I'd rather take a chance on any of the top 3, maybe I'd even take Edgecombe.

KD? I'll say pick 4 too. He's the best player by far, but too old. Zion? Pick 4 too, maybe pick 5?

Lauri? I think the gap here is huge... I think around 8?

Lamelo
KD/Sabonis
Zion

Lauri

I have LaMelo, KD and Sabonis as worth 4 depending on the team, Zion worth 5-7 and Lauri worth late lotto?

[Daddy 801]

Which pick in the next draft do you think each one is worth?
Lamelo? I'm not sure, pick 2? Would you rather have Harper or Lamelo?
I still think Lamelo probably has the higher ceiling. I'm sure he's worth it in principle, more than Bailey/Jakucionis/Fears, etc. ....

Sabonis? I'll say pick 4. I'd rather take a chance on any of the top 3, maybe I'd even take Edgecombe.

KD? I'll say pick 4 too. He's the best player by far, but too old. Zion? Pick 4 too, maybe pick 5?

Lauri? I think the gap here is huge... I think around 8?

Lamelo
KD/Sabonis
Zion

Lauri

I have LaMelo, KD and Sabonis as worth 4 depending on the team, Zion worth 5-7 and Lauri worth late lotto?

Perfect example of why just discussing these guys in a vacuum makes no sense. For Utah I wouldn’t want any of these players on the team besides Zion, and I wouldn’t trade a top pick for Zion due to his injury concerns. Me personally, I wouldn’t give one FRP for Durant. Not saying he isn’t worth more than that for some teams, but he sure as hell is not worth it for a rebuilding team due to his age. For a team like Houston, Spurs, etc…..sure. But why give up the slightest chance of a FRP panning out for a player who is old and about to retire for a rebuilding team.

[Texas Chuck]

I mean its basic stuff that not every team is interested in every player for whatever reason. That's not what determines trade value though--what you think your team's interest level is or isn't.

What drives trade value, is whats the most return one could reasonably expect for a player. Wide markets help, but star impact still means the most. Then how much leverage does the player have. KD definitely would drive where he ends up which impacts his trade return. None of these other guys would have that.

But just because Utah doesn't want KD in your opinion, doesn't mean that the team who does want him won't pay more for him than any team would pay for Lauri.

Maybe Lauri has the value Jazz fans collectively see, but its so hard to see that valuation for a guy who has more meh years than great ones, but who is starting a huge new deal. I fail to see how he's more valuable than say Zach LaVine. I mean its a ton of money for a guy who needs to be a primary scoring option because he doesn't offer much else, but likely isn't good enough in that role. And how many teams can afford to pay their 3rd option who isn't a great defender that much money?

Just make it hard to find big trade value. Not telling anyone not to value the role he currently plays for their team. But that's not the question. The question is what would be the best offer they could get for him. I don't see any credible arguments why its more than the proven, but aged KD, or the upside potential of Zion and Ball(albeit with a ton of risk) and definitely not the proven consistent high level play of Sabonis. And before anyone cites playoffs again, do tell us about this proven track record of Lauri in that regard.

[Daddy 801]

I mean its basic stuff that not every team is interested in every player for whatever reason. That's not what determines trade value though--what you think your team's interest level is or isn't.

What drives trade value, is whats the most return one could reasonably expect for a player. Wide markets help, but star impact still means the most. Then how much leverage does the player have. KD definitely would drive where he ends up which impacts his trade return. None of these other guys would have that.

But just because Utah doesn't want KD in your opinion, doesn't mean that the team who does want him won't pay more for him than any team would pay for Lauri.

Maybe Lauri has the value Jazz fans collectively see, but its so hard to see that valuation for a guy who has more meh years than great ones, but who is starting a huge new deal. I fail to see how he's more valuable than say Zach LaVine. I mean its a ton of money for a guy who needs to be a primary scoring option because he doesn't offer much else, but likely isn't good enough in that role. And how many teams can afford to pay their 3rd option who isn't a great defender that much money?

Just make it hard to find big trade value. Not telling anyone not to value the role he currently plays for their team. But that's not the question. The question is what would be the best offer they could get for him. I don't see any credible arguments why its more than the proven, but aged KD, or the upside potential of Zion and Ball(albeit with a ton of risk) and definitely not the proven consistent high level play of Sabonis. And before anyone cites playoffs again, do tell us about this proven track record of Lauri in that regard.

I agree in a vacuum Lauri has the lowest or second to lowest trade value. That’s where I ranked him. I don’t think he has a track record to produce a ton of trade value at the moment. The guys putting him at #1 make no sense to me. Durant is the best player, even if he has a short window left and he fits on the least amount of team. Sabonis and Ball have the highest value meaning the largest amount of teams would want them. And Zion is the largest upside potential if he pans out…a big if though. Lauri is a good player who could fit on any team. But he isn’t and will never be the number one option on a good team (could argue the same for Ball and even Sabonis to some extent). That’s my take at least.

[NYG]

Who needs to add in a KD for Zion deal? Obviously 3 team deal, but still

[babyjax13]

Maybe Lauri has the value Jazz fans collectively see, but its so hard to see that valuation for a guy who has more meh years than great ones, but who is starting a huge new deal. I fail to see how he's more valuable than say Zach LaVine. I mean its a ton of money for a guy who needs to be a primary scoring option because he doesn't offer much else, but likely isn't good enough in that role. And how many teams can afford to pay their 3rd option who isn't a great defender that much money?

He's a medium usage (~50th this season, 51st in 2023-24) off-ball shooter? I don't see any team where his ideal outcome is as the first option. In Utah his usage is about 25% which is right where Klay was in his prime (and the same as Porzingis, another guy that no one would say has to be a first option). The ball doesn't stick to him, he moves well off ball on the perimeter and on cuts + you can run some lobs + he can attack bent defenses.

Zach Lavine has had one season with a BPM over 3 (4.0 in 20-21) and Lauri has had 2 (+3.8 and +3.6) so if he returns to form he has a longer and more recent track record at that level of play. He is also 2 years younger and currently paid less (albeit on a longer deal) and is a more valuable archetype. The obvious drawbacks are this recent season (which I think is contextual but others will say "but look at his time in Chicago") and the longer contract if you don't like it (but I think it is fair-market contract given his play prior to this season in Utah and that it is below a max extension). Given that he has had one season prior to Utah as a first option on his team, I feel safe in saying that the player he was last season and the season before is the player that he is if put into that role. I think there are a LOT of reasons to value him over LaVine, and in terms of this comparison, good reasons to expect his trade value is higher than a 39 year old Durant (inarguably still a better player), a yet-to-be-healthy ever Zion, and a guy in Sabonis who is better but also hard to build around (I still think Sabonis has more trade value). You don't have to build around Lauri, he fits on every team in the league. Ball? IMO, there really isn't a good argument that Lauri has more trade or on-court value given age and level of play.

Out of this list, I think Zion is the odd man out, not Lauri.

[babyjax13]

Honest question, what's the argument in favor of Lauri over players like (for example) MPJ (better stats in practically everything) or even Lavine?

The fact that 2 out of the last three years Lauri has been massively better than both and that Utah shamelessly tanked, sat or traded everyone good, and had guys in and out of the lineup every single night disrupting any continuity to shamelessly tank their way to the worst record in the league this season. I don't think Lauri had a chance to replicate the role or success he had with what were objectively bad rosters the two seasons prior with what we trotted out this year. He's a damn good player who is more efficient, more scalable, and low-usage relative to his volume than almost every player who scored over 20ppg over the last three seasons. FWIW in the last decade Lauri is the third best player the Jazz have had (better than Hayward, worse than Mitchell/Gobert).