DEN/MIA/ORL

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Re: DEN/MIA/ORL 

Post#21 » by TheShow2021 » Wed Apr 16, 2025 11:46 am

psman2 wrote:I just don't see putting even more of the offensive load on Jokic a viable way forward here. No big problem with the value here but Wiggins and Suggs cannot be a 2/3 best offensive options on a team hoping to win another chip.


But the Nuggets need defensive improvement even more. It would be difficult to increase offensive and defensive performance simultaneously through trades. Perhaps there is a way though:

Personally, I would try to trade Murray, Gordon, Braun for 3 and D players, and/or perhaps a legit offensive star, that doesn't need screens or DHOs like Murray, one that could carry non Jokic minutes.

Yes Gordon shot well this year (albeit on low volume) but I think that's a major outlier, and he still loves to sabotage Jokic by going to the dunker's spot and let his man simultaneously guard him and double Jokic.

Murray is a decent catch and shoot 3 shooter at around ~40% for the last few years, but he's horrific value, horrible in non Jokic minutes (-7.4 since 2020 season) and horrific navigating screens.

Braun has been great, but a 2 needs to better at making wide open 3s. Braun's stats are highly inflated from playing with Jokic. Trade him while his stock is high.

If Jokic was surrounded by 4 shooters he would be much better offensively. Imagine a pick your poison scenario, either single cover him or give up a wide open 3 to a competent shooter. He's already arguably the best offensive player in history, and that's with a supporting cast that is not optimal.
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Re: DEN/MIA/ORL 

Post#22 » by SA37 » Wed Apr 16, 2025 4:27 pm

Skybox wrote:Assumptions:

-MIA lost a lot of offense with Jimmy, but perimeter scoring is the present and future



MIA sends: Andrew Wiggins and Kyle Anderson, MIA 25 frp (#11?)
MIA gets: Michael Porter, ORL 25 frp & DEN 25 frp (#16 & 22?)
Why: Porter is a very complementary big next to Bam and, potentially forms a powerful young trio with Herro. MIA gets younger and leans into Ware, JJJ, Jovic and two decent frps this summer to retool on the fly. MIA has a history of finding gems later in a flat first round, so two shots appeals. MPJ and Herro spread the floor and rain 3's, so Bam can work inside and run the offense through the post. MPJ's injury risk is there, but he's young and has far more offensive upside than recently acquired Wiggins. Rozier and Duncan Robinson become large expiring trade chips this summer - so MIA might even package a pick with either or both to pillage some tanking team looking for draft equity...or even try to grab Durant to have a giant forward tandem that can score from anywhere.


Why would Miami want to pay $10M per season to a guy who may not even be a better scorer than Wiggins?

The pick swaps only make sense if Miami doesn't like anyone at their pick and can get value for trading out. And even then, given Miami owes picks to teams in the near future, it would make more sense for Miami to get a 1st in 2026, 2027, and/or 2028.
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Re: DEN/MIA/ORL 

Post#23 » by Skybox » Wed Apr 16, 2025 6:47 pm

SA37 wrote:
Skybox wrote:Assumptions:

-MIA lost a lot of offense with Jimmy, but perimeter scoring is the present and future



MIA sends: Andrew Wiggins and Kyle Anderson, MIA 25 frp (#11?)
MIA gets: Michael Porter, ORL 25 frp & DEN 25 frp (#16 & 22?)
Why: Porter is a very complementary big next to Bam and, potentially forms a powerful young trio with Herro. MIA gets younger and leans into Ware, JJJ, Jovic and two decent frps this summer to retool on the fly. MIA has a history of finding gems later in a flat first round, so two shots appeals. MPJ and Herro spread the floor and rain 3's, so Bam can work inside and run the offense through the post. MPJ's injury risk is there, but he's young and has far more offensive upside than recently acquired Wiggins. Rozier and Duncan Robinson become large expiring trade chips this summer - so MIA might even package a pick with either or both to pillage some tanking team looking for draft equity...or even try to grab Durant to have a giant forward tandem that can score from anywhere.


Why would Miami want to pay $10M per season to a guy who may not even be a better scorer than Wiggins?

The pick swaps only make sense if Miami doesn't like anyone at their pick and can get value for trading out. And even then, given Miami owes picks to teams in the near future, it would make more sense for Miami to get a 1st in 2026, 2027, and/or 2028.


The assumption is that Porter IS potentially a much more prolific shooter and scorer than Wiggins. You're free to disagree.
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Re: DEN/MIA/ORL 

Post#24 » by SA37 » Wed Apr 16, 2025 9:49 pm

Skybox wrote:
SA37 wrote:
Skybox wrote:Assumptions:

-MIA lost a lot of offense with Jimmy, but perimeter scoring is the present and future



MIA sends: Andrew Wiggins and Kyle Anderson, MIA 25 frp (#11?)
MIA gets: Michael Porter, ORL 25 frp & DEN 25 frp (#16 & 22?)
Why: Porter is a very complementary big next to Bam and, potentially forms a powerful young trio with Herro. MIA gets younger and leans into Ware, JJJ, Jovic and two decent frps this summer to retool on the fly. MIA has a history of finding gems later in a flat first round, so two shots appeals. MPJ and Herro spread the floor and rain 3's, so Bam can work inside and run the offense through the post. MPJ's injury risk is there, but he's young and has far more offensive upside than recently acquired Wiggins. Rozier and Duncan Robinson become large expiring trade chips this summer - so MIA might even package a pick with either or both to pillage some tanking team looking for draft equity...or even try to grab Durant to have a giant forward tandem that can score from anywhere.


Why would Miami want to pay $10M per season to a guy who may not even be a better scorer than Wiggins?

The pick swaps only make sense if Miami doesn't like anyone at their pick and can get value for trading out. And even then, given Miami owes picks to teams in the near future, it would make more sense for Miami to get a 1st in 2026, 2027, and/or 2028.


The assumption is that Porter IS potentially a much more prolific shooter and scorer than Wiggins. You're free to disagree.


You capitalized "is" but you should have capitalized "potentially", and the trade is a high price to pay for that potential that seems to come out of thin air. There is nothing Porter Jr has shown that would lead anyone to believe he'd be the player you're saying he could potentially be. If you can't be any better than Porter JR has been playing with the best player in basketball, what makes anyone think you'll be better playing with lesser players?

And even if Miami (or any team) had that inkling, there is certainly no reason to pay the premium proposed in the trade.

Porter Jr is Denver's Tobias Harris, and I don't think anyone is coming to Denver's rescue there.
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Re: DEN/MIA/ORL 

Post#25 » by Skybox » Wed Apr 16, 2025 9:54 pm

SA37 wrote:
Skybox wrote:
SA37 wrote:
Why would Miami want to pay $10M per season to a guy who may not even be a better scorer than Wiggins?

The pick swaps only make sense if Miami doesn't like anyone at their pick and can get value for trading out. And even then, given Miami owes picks to teams in the near future, it would make more sense for Miami to get a 1st in 2026, 2027, and/or 2028.


The assumption is that Porter IS potentially a much more prolific shooter and scorer than Wiggins. You're free to disagree.


You capitalized "is" but you should have capitalized "potentially", and the trade is a high price to pay for that potential that seems to come out of thin air. There is nothing Porter Jr has shown that would lead anyone to believe he'd be the player you're saying he could potentially be. If you can't be any better than Porter JR has been playing with the best player in basketball, what makes anyone think you'll be better playing with lesser players?

And even if Miami (or any team) had that inkling, there is certainly no reason to pay the premium proposed in the trade.

Porter Jr is Denver's Tobias Harris, and I don't think anyone is coming to Denver's rescue there.


Sure...now, I'll capitalize YOU'RE FREE TO DISAGREE...I happen to think that MPJ's offensive firepower, specifically 3pt shooting has another gear. I really like Wiggins too.
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Re: DEN/MIA/ORL 

Post#26 » by BBallFreak » Thu Apr 17, 2025 1:47 pm

Skybox wrote:
SA37 wrote:
Skybox wrote:
The assumption is that Porter IS potentially a much more prolific shooter and scorer than Wiggins. You're free to disagree.


You capitalized "is" but you should have capitalized "potentially", and the trade is a high price to pay for that potential that seems to come out of thin air. There is nothing Porter Jr has shown that would lead anyone to believe he'd be the player you're saying he could potentially be. If you can't be any better than Porter JR has been playing with the best player in basketball, what makes anyone think you'll be better playing with lesser players?

And even if Miami (or any team) had that inkling, there is certainly no reason to pay the premium proposed in the trade.

Porter Jr is Denver's Tobias Harris, and I don't think anyone is coming to Denver's rescue there.


Sure...now, I'll capitalize YOU'RE FREE TO DISAGREE...I happen to think that MPJ's offensive firepower, specifically 3pt shooting has another gear. I really like Wiggins too.

The problem you're facing here is evidence. These guys, offensively, this year have been pretty equal. Career wise, Wiggins has two years better than anything MPJ has been able to produce. Of course, I think most would agree that Wiggins is the superior defender, including you given the premise of your trade. So this trade is Miami giving up a quality pick and a solid role player to make what would be considered, at best, a lateral move.

I think Miami would be better served trading Wiggins, both our picks this year (we can trade them after we draft them, and an expiring Rozier or Robinson, for a player that actually makes us better.
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Re: DEN/MIA/ORL 

Post#27 » by Skybox » Thu Apr 17, 2025 2:21 pm

BBallFreak wrote:
Skybox wrote:
SA37 wrote:
You capitalized "is" but you should have capitalized "potentially", and the trade is a high price to pay for that potential that seems to come out of thin air. There is nothing Porter Jr has shown that would lead anyone to believe he'd be the player you're saying he could potentially be. If you can't be any better than Porter JR has been playing with the best player in basketball, what makes anyone think you'll be better playing with lesser players?

And even if Miami (or any team) had that inkling, there is certainly no reason to pay the premium proposed in the trade.

Porter Jr is Denver's Tobias Harris, and I don't think anyone is coming to Denver's rescue there.


Sure...now, I'll capitalize YOU'RE FREE TO DISAGREE...I happen to think that MPJ's offensive firepower, specifically 3pt shooting has another gear. I really like Wiggins too.

The problem you're facing here is evidence. These guys, offensively, this year have been pretty equal. Career wise, Wiggins has two years better than anything MPJ has been able to produce. Of course, I think most would agree that Wiggins is the superior defender, including you given the premise of your trade. So this trade is Miami giving up a quality pick and a solid role player to make what would be considered, at best, a lateral move.

I think Miami would be better served trading Wiggins, both our picks this year (we can trade them after we draft them, and an expiring Rozier or Robinson, for a player that actually makes us better.


You're also free to disagree about MPJ's ultimate offensive potential in a different environment :D ...I think he'd put up a lot more shots elsewhere and would complement Bam and Herro very well.
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Re: DEN/MIA/ORL 

Post#28 » by BBallFreak » Thu Apr 17, 2025 3:24 pm

Skybox wrote:
BBallFreak wrote:
Skybox wrote:
Sure...now, I'll capitalize YOU'RE FREE TO DISAGREE...I happen to think that MPJ's offensive firepower, specifically 3pt shooting has another gear. I really like Wiggins too.

The problem you're facing here is evidence. These guys, offensively, this year have been pretty equal. Career wise, Wiggins has two years better than anything MPJ has been able to produce. Of course, I think most would agree that Wiggins is the superior defender, including you given the premise of your trade. So this trade is Miami giving up a quality pick and a solid role player to make what would be considered, at best, a lateral move.

I think Miami would be better served trading Wiggins, both our picks this year (we can trade them after we draft them, and an expiring Rozier or Robinson, for a player that actually makes us better.


You're also free to disagree about MPJ's ultimate offensive potential in a different environment :D ...I think he'd put up a lot more shots elsewhere and would complement Bam and Herro very well.

If only their were a way to figure out what a comparable third option would do in Miami's offense.

Oh yeah! Wiggins is putting up 14.8 shots per game in Miami. MPJ is at 13.6 shots per game (a career high). So, your entire argument for a better offensive game is 1.2 spots, and that's assuming MPJ can get those 1.2 shots up.

Yeah, statistically, their is no real reason for Miami to trade quality (our pick) for quantity just to see what MPJ can do with 1.2 more shots.
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Re: DEN/MIA/ORL 

Post#29 » by Skybox » Thu Apr 17, 2025 3:27 pm

BBallFreak wrote:
Skybox wrote:
BBallFreak wrote:The problem you're facing here is evidence. These guys, offensively, this year have been pretty equal. Career wise, Wiggins has two years better than anything MPJ has been able to produce. Of course, I think most would agree that Wiggins is the superior defender, including you given the premise of your trade. So this trade is Miami giving up a quality pick and a solid role player to make what would be considered, at best, a lateral move.

I think Miami would be better served trading Wiggins, both our picks this year (we can trade them after we draft them, and an expiring Rozier or Robinson, for a player that actually makes us better.


You're also free to disagree about MPJ's ultimate offensive potential in a different environment :D ...I think he'd put up a lot more shots elsewhere and would complement Bam and Herro very well.

If only their were a way to figure out what a comparable third option would do in Miami's offense.

Oh yeah! Wiggins is putting up 14.8 shots per game in Miami. MPJ is at 13.6 shots per game (a career high). So, your entire argument for a better offensive game is 1.2 spots, and that's assuming MPJ can get those 1.2 shots up.

Yeah, statistically, their is no real reason for Miami to trade quality (our pick) for quantity just to see what MPJ can do with 1.2 more shots.



I get that you see it differently...anything else?

BTW, I hate MIA...but I love their core now - Herro, Bam, Ware, Wiggins...there's material to build on there, plus two decent frps incoming
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Re: DEN/MIA/ORL 

Post#30 » by BBallFreak » Thu Apr 17, 2025 3:52 pm

Skybox wrote:
BBallFreak wrote:
Skybox wrote:
You're also free to disagree about MPJ's ultimate offensive potential in a different environment :D ...I think he'd put up a lot more shots elsewhere and would complement Bam and Herro very well.

If only their were a way to figure out what a comparable third option would do in Miami's offense.

Oh yeah! Wiggins is putting up 14.8 shots per game in Miami. MPJ is at 13.6 shots per game (a career high). So, your entire argument for a better offensive game is 1.2 spots, and that's assuming MPJ can get those 1.2 shots up.

Yeah, statistically, their is no real reason for Miami to trade quality (our pick) for quantity just to see what MPJ can do with 1.2 more shots.



I get that you see it differently...anything else?

BTW, I hate MIA...but I love their core now - Herro, Bam, Ware, Wiggins...there's material to build on there, plus two decent frps incoming

Statistics aren't seeing it differently. Statistics are factual trends. I don't think you'll find a lot of players who took a huge statistical jump after year 7.
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Re: DEN/MIA/ORL 

Post#31 » by SA37 » Thu Apr 17, 2025 3:59 pm

BBallFreak wrote:
Skybox wrote:
BBallFreak wrote:If only their were a way to figure out what a comparable third option would do in Miami's offense.

Oh yeah! Wiggins is putting up 14.8 shots per game in Miami. MPJ is at 13.6 shots per game (a career high). So, your entire argument for a better offensive game is 1.2 spots, and that's assuming MPJ can get those 1.2 shots up.

Yeah, statistically, their is no real reason for Miami to trade quality (our pick) for quantity just to see what MPJ can do with 1.2 more shots.



I get that you see it differently...anything else?

BTW, I hate MIA...but I love their core now - Herro, Bam, Ware, Wiggins...there's material to build on there, plus two decent frps incoming

Statistics aren't seeing it differently. Statistics are factual trends. I don't think you'll find a lot of players who took a huge statistical jump after year 7.


I don't see a potential breakout for MPJ in any scenario, either.

That difference in opinion on MPJ aside, it makes no sense for Miami to send out Wiggins and a good role player in Anderson + trading down to trade for a player like MPJ, especially when he costs you $10M more per season than Wiggins.

Like you said previously, you remove the picks and do a Wiggins/Andersom for MPJ swap...ok, sure. If you think MPJ can fit better than Wiggins and you value him being younger (27 v 30), then it's a reasonable gamble.
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Re: DEN/MIA/ORL 

Post#32 » by BBallFreak » Thu Apr 17, 2025 4:05 pm

SA37 wrote:
BBallFreak wrote:
Skybox wrote:

I get that you see it differently...anything else?

BTW, I hate MIA...but I love their core now - Herro, Bam, Ware, Wiggins...there's material to build on there, plus two decent frps incoming

Statistics aren't seeing it differently. Statistics are factual trends. I don't think you'll find a lot of players who took a huge statistical jump after year 7.


I don't see a potential breakout for MPJ in any scenario, either.

That difference in opinion on MPJ aside, it makes no sense for Miami to send out Wiggins and a good role player in Anderson + trading down to trade for a player like MPJ, especially when he costs you $10M more per season than Wiggins.

Like you said previously, you remove the picks and do a Wiggins/Andersom for MPJ swap...ok, sure. If you think MPJ can fit better than Wiggins and you value him being younger (27 v 30), then it's a reasonable gamble.

It's also the partially guaranteed contract for 2026/27 that I value, but yeah this just doesn't make sense for us with the inclusion of those picks.
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Re: DEN/MIA/ORL 

Post#33 » by Skybox » Thu Apr 17, 2025 8:40 pm

BBallFreak wrote:
Skybox wrote:
BBallFreak wrote:If only their were a way to figure out what a comparable third option would do in Miami's offense.

Oh yeah! Wiggins is putting up 14.8 shots per game in Miami. MPJ is at 13.6 shots per game (a career high). So, your entire argument for a better offensive game is 1.2 spots, and that's assuming MPJ can get those 1.2 shots up.

Yeah, statistically, their is no real reason for Miami to trade quality (our pick) for quantity just to see what MPJ can do with 1.2 more shots.



I get that you see it differently...anything else?

BTW, I hate MIA...but I love their core now - Herro, Bam, Ware, Wiggins...there's material to build on there, plus two decent frps incoming

Statistics aren't seeing it differently. Statistics are factual trends. I don't think you'll find a lot of players who took a huge statistical jump after year 7.


Ironically, your hero Wiggins started contributing to winning around that time after years of giant empty stats before being a giant salary dump and considered (at the time) one of the deepest negative value overpays until he happened to land in the best finishing school in the NBA.
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Re: DEN/MIA/ORL 

Post#34 » by BBallFreak » Thu Apr 17, 2025 8:43 pm

Skybox wrote:
BBallFreak wrote:
Skybox wrote:

I get that you see it differently...anything else?

BTW, I hate MIA...but I love their core now - Herro, Bam, Ware, Wiggins...there's material to build on there, plus two decent frps incoming

Statistics aren't seeing it differently. Statistics are factual trends. I don't think you'll find a lot of players who took a huge statistical jump after year 7.


Ironically, your hero Wiggins started contributing to winning around that time after years of giant empty stats before being a giant salary dump and considered (at the time) one of the deepest negative value overpays until he happened to land in the best finishing school in the NBA.

My hero? Lol!

Ironically, your hero was considered injury prone, overpaid, and an albatross. What's your point?
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Re: DEN/MIA/ORL 

Post#35 » by Skybox » Thu Apr 17, 2025 8:52 pm

BBallFreak wrote:
Skybox wrote:
BBallFreak wrote:Statistics aren't seeing it differently. Statistics are factual trends. I don't think you'll find a lot of players who took a huge statistical jump after year 7.


Ironically, your hero Wiggins started contributing to winning around that time after years of giant empty stats before being a giant salary dump and considered (at the time) one of the deepest negative value overpays until he happened to land in the best finishing school in the NBA.

My hero? Lol!

Ironically, your hero was considered injury prone, overpaid, and an albatross. What's your point?


Did you read it? It wasn’t full of big words…Wiggins might be the best example of a loser becoming a winner after multiple years in the league. You seemed to ask for an example of players changing their stripes seven years in. Wiggins was approaching Beal-level notoriety when he was salary dumped into GSW.
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Re: DEN/MIA/ORL 

Post#36 » by BBallFreak » Thu Apr 17, 2025 9:38 pm

Skybox wrote:
BBallFreak wrote:
Skybox wrote:
Ironically, your hero Wiggins started contributing to winning around that time after years of giant empty stats before being a giant salary dump and considered (at the time) one of the deepest negative value overpays until he happened to land in the best finishing school in the NBA.

My hero? Lol!

Ironically, your hero was considered injury prone, overpaid, and an albatross. What's your point?


Did you read it? It wasn’t full of big words…Wiggins might be the best example of a loser becoming a winner after multiple years in the league. You seemed to ask for an example of players changing their stripes seven years in. Wiggins was approaching Beal-level notoriety when he was salary dumped into GSW.

Did YOU read?

Seriously?!?!

What statistical jump did Wiggins make after year 7?

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