SAS/MIL/PHX - wingSpan Antonio

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Re: SAS/MIL/PHX - wingSpan Antonio 

Post#61 » by RiotPunch » Wed May 21, 2025 6:47 am

One_and_Done wrote:
RiotPunch wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:Which is how I would feel if I were a Bucks fan... but if Giannis demands a trade then all that goes out the window. The idea you can conduct an open bidding process in those circumstances is just not logical. If he had 5 years on his contract maybe.

Two years under contract isn't nothing, though. Horst just got an extension (gross) and he can play a little hardball with Giannis if he "demands" out. If we're not getting prime capital in this draft, might as well keep him healthy and recanvass at the deadline or next summer. Maybe the group clicks and he's reinvested. No need to take the best of mediocre offers.

Experience suggests that, barring unusual circumstances, a players value starts to drop every day past the 2 year mark on their contract expiry. That is without a trade demand. With a trade demand it gets even worse and more complex. Giannis has a agree with where he is going after all.

The upshot is basically this; if Giannis demands a trade to a specific team or teams, and I actually don't think he will, then you will get good value for Giannis, but not optimal value. I won't get into what I think is fair from Houston, but from the Spurs I suspect the offer would be something like Castle, 5-7 picks, and filler (e.g. Keldon, Wesley, Branham, etc). That is not an unreasonable offer for a 30 year old given the circumstances of a trade demand. The Spurs have some really, really juicy looking picks to include after all; but the #2 is just too valuable to include.

Experience suggests that those juicy, juicy looking picks might just be juicy turds.

If Giannis is healthy, do you think that Spurs offer changes at the deadline?

Thank you for acknowledging these offers not being optimal value.
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Bucksmaniac wrote:I'm sorry, but I'm starting to sour on Giannis
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Re: SAS/MIL/PHX - wingSpan Antonio 

Post#62 » by One_and_Done » Wed May 21, 2025 7:32 am

RiotPunch wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:
RiotPunch wrote:Two years under contract isn't nothing, though. Horst just got an extension (gross) and he can play a little hardball with Giannis if he "demands" out. If we're not getting prime capital in this draft, might as well keep him healthy and recanvass at the deadline or next summer. Maybe the group clicks and he's reinvested. No need to take the best of mediocre offers.

Experience suggests that, barring unusual circumstances, a players value starts to drop every day past the 2 year mark on their contract expiry. That is without a trade demand. With a trade demand it gets even worse and more complex. Giannis has a agree with where he is going after all.

The upshot is basically this; if Giannis demands a trade to a specific team or teams, and I actually don't think he will, then you will get good value for Giannis, but not optimal value. I won't get into what I think is fair from Houston, but from the Spurs I suspect the offer would be something like Castle, 5-7 picks, and filler (e.g. Keldon, Wesley, Branham, etc). That is not an unreasonable offer for a 30 year old given the circumstances of a trade demand. The Spurs have some really, really juicy looking picks to include after all; but the #2 is just too valuable to include.

Experience suggests that those juicy, juicy looking picks might just be juicy turds.

If Giannis is healthy, do you think that Spurs offer changes at the deadline?

Thank you for acknowledging these offers not being optimal value.

I think if anything it's the reverse. As the picks start to look juicier, you're less likely to get them. Like, you could have gotten the Spurs pick for Giannis during last season... but now that it's #2? No chance. If the Hawks implode next year, you'll have little chance of getting their picks at the deadline either.
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
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Re: SAS/MIL/PHX - wingSpan Antonio 

Post#63 » by RiotPunch » Wed May 21, 2025 7:47 am

One_and_Done wrote:
RiotPunch wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:Experience suggests that, barring unusual circumstances, a players value starts to drop every day past the 2 year mark on their contract expiry. That is without a trade demand. With a trade demand it gets even worse and more complex. Giannis has a agree with where he is going after all.

The upshot is basically this; if Giannis demands a trade to a specific team or teams, and I actually don't think he will, then you will get good value for Giannis, but not optimal value. I won't get into what I think is fair from Houston, but from the Spurs I suspect the offer would be something like Castle, 5-7 picks, and filler (e.g. Keldon, Wesley, Branham, etc). That is not an unreasonable offer for a 30 year old given the circumstances of a trade demand. The Spurs have some really, really juicy looking picks to include after all; but the #2 is just too valuable to include.

Experience suggests that those juicy, juicy looking picks might just be juicy turds.

If Giannis is healthy, do you think that Spurs offer changes at the deadline?

Thank you for acknowledging these offers not being optimal value.

I think if anything it's the reverse. As the picks start to look juicier, you're less likely to get them. Like, you could have gotten the Spurs pick for Giannis during last season... but now that it's #2? No chance. If the Hawks implode next year, you'll have little chance of getting their picks at the deadline either.

Hawks make noise in the East, Harper pairs poorly with Castle, Giannis is averaging 32/11/7?
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Bucksmaniac wrote:I'm sorry, but I'm starting to sour on Giannis
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Re: SAS/MIL/PHX - wingSpan Antonio 

Post#64 » by One_and_Done » Wed May 21, 2025 8:20 am

RiotPunch wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:
RiotPunch wrote:Experience suggests that those juicy, juicy looking picks might just be juicy turds.

If Giannis is healthy, do you think that Spurs offer changes at the deadline?

Thank you for acknowledging these offers not being optimal value.

I think if anything it's the reverse. As the picks start to look juicier, you're less likely to get them. Like, you could have gotten the Spurs pick for Giannis during last season... but now that it's #2? No chance. If the Hawks implode next year, you'll have little chance of getting their picks at the deadline either.

Hawks make noise in the East, Harper pairs poorly with Castle, Giannis is averaging 32/11/7?

Giannis is 30. Thirty. 30. He is a luxury for a team as young as the Spurs, not something they have to have right now.

I think you need to remember that these things can change quickly too. Nobody is declining, until they are. It takes one injury for Giannis value to drastically decline. It takes 1 month of explosive play for Harper to become nigh untraceable. The Hawks could implode next season. Giannis could get hurt and be out for the latter half of next year.

You have to look at it from the point of view of the team trading for Giannis too. Giannis is everything to the Bucks, bit he's not everything to a young team that is already planning to become a contender through internal growth and aren't ready. When the Spurs start to get expensive those future picks will help them retool. A 30 year old Giannis stands a good chance of being out of his prime in 3-4 years.
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
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Re: SAS/MIL/PHX - wingSpan Antonio 

Post#65 » by RiotPunch » Thu May 22, 2025 4:56 am

One_and_Done wrote:
RiotPunch wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:I think if anything it's the reverse. As the picks start to look juicier, you're less likely to get them. Like, you could have gotten the Spurs pick for Giannis during last season... but now that it's #2? No chance. If the Hawks implode next year, you'll have little chance of getting their picks at the deadline either.

Hawks make noise in the East, Harper pairs poorly with Castle, Giannis is averaging 32/11/7?

Giannis is 30. Thirty. 30. He is a luxury for a team as young as the Spurs, not something they have to have right now.

I think you need to remember that these things can change quickly too. Nobody is declining, until they are. It takes one injury for Giannis value to drastically decline. It takes 1 month of explosive play for Harper to become nigh untraceable. The Hawks could implode next season. Giannis could get hurt and be out for the latter half of next year.

You have to look at it from the point of view of the team trading for Giannis too. Giannis is everything to the Bucks, bit he's not everything to a young team that is already planning to become a contender through internal growth and aren't ready. When the Spurs start to get expensive those future picks will help them retool. A 30 year old Giannis stands a good chance of being out of his prime in 3-4 years.

I get where you're coming from, but we're also living in the same universe where a 34 year old Durant effectively returned:

Cam Johnson
2023 unprotected PHX 1st
2025 unprotected PHX 1st
2027 unprotected PHX 1st
2028 PHX pick swap
2029 unprotected PHX 1st
2025 Top-4 protected MIL 1st
2025 unprotected Knicks 1st
2027 unprotected Knicks 1st
2028 Knicks pick swap
2029 unprotected Knicks 1st
2031 unprotected Knicks 1st
2028 MIL 2nd
2029 MIL 2nd

Obviously preying on Ishbia/Rose, but 30 is still pretty young these days. **** can always hit the fan, but Giannis looked as good as ever last season. Dominant.
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Bucksmaniac wrote:I'm sorry, but I'm starting to sour on Giannis
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Re: SAS/MIL/PHX - wingSpan Antonio 

Post#66 » by One_and_Done » Thu May 22, 2025 5:11 am

RiotPunch wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:
RiotPunch wrote:Hawks make noise in the East, Harper pairs poorly with Castle, Giannis is averaging 32/11/7?

Giannis is 30. Thirty. 30. He is a luxury for a team as young as the Spurs, not something they have to have right now.

I think you need to remember that these things can change quickly too. Nobody is declining, until they are. It takes one injury for Giannis value to drastically decline. It takes 1 month of explosive play for Harper to become nigh untraceable. The Hawks could implode next season. Giannis could get hurt and be out for the latter half of next year.

You have to look at it from the point of view of the team trading for Giannis too. Giannis is everything to the Bucks, bit he's not everything to a young team that is already planning to become a contender through internal growth and aren't ready. When the Spurs start to get expensive those future picks will help them retool. A 30 year old Giannis stands a good chance of being out of his prime in 3-4 years.

I get where you're coming from, but we're also living in the same universe where a 34 year old Durant effectively returned:

Cam Johnson
2023 unprotected PHX 1st
2025 unprotected PHX 1st
2027 unprotected PHX 1st
2028 PHX pick swap
2029 unprotected PHX 1st
2025 Top-4 protected MIL 1st
2025 unprotected Knicks 1st
2027 unprotected Knicks 1st
2028 Knicks pick swap
2029 unprotected Knicks 1st
2031 unprotected Knicks 1st
2028 MIL 2nd
2029 MIL 2nd

Obviously preying on Ishbia/Rose, but 30 is still pretty young these days. **** can always hit the fan, but Giannis looked as good as ever last season. Dominant.

And the Suns now realise that was a horrible trade, which they wish they could undo. Good thing the Spurs are smarter than that.
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
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Re: SAS/MIL/PHX - wingSpan Antonio 

Post#67 » by RiotPunch » Thu May 22, 2025 5:21 am

One_and_Done wrote:
RiotPunch wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:Giannis is 30. Thirty. 30. He is a luxury for a team as young as the Spurs, not something they have to have right now.

I think you need to remember that these things can change quickly too. Nobody is declining, until they are. It takes one injury for Giannis value to drastically decline. It takes 1 month of explosive play for Harper to become nigh untraceable. The Hawks could implode next season. Giannis could get hurt and be out for the latter half of next year.

You have to look at it from the point of view of the team trading for Giannis too. Giannis is everything to the Bucks, bit he's not everything to a young team that is already planning to become a contender through internal growth and aren't ready. When the Spurs start to get expensive those future picks will help them retool. A 30 year old Giannis stands a good chance of being out of his prime in 3-4 years.

I get where you're coming from, but we're also living in the same universe where a 34 year old Durant effectively returned:

Cam Johnson
2023 unprotected PHX 1st
2025 unprotected PHX 1st
2027 unprotected PHX 1st
2028 PHX pick swap
2029 unprotected PHX 1st
2025 Top-4 protected MIL 1st
2025 unprotected Knicks 1st
2027 unprotected Knicks 1st
2028 Knicks pick swap
2029 unprotected Knicks 1st
2031 unprotected Knicks 1st
2028 MIL 2nd
2029 MIL 2nd

Obviously preying on Ishbia/Rose, but 30 is still pretty young these days. **** can always hit the fan, but Giannis looked as good as ever last season. Dominant.

And the Suns now realise that was a horrible trade, which they wish they could undo. Good thing the Spurs are smarter than that.

Hindsight is 20/20, but I'm just trying to say foresight isn't always so crystal clear. All it takes is one team to convince themselves that Giannis is the answer to titles. Could legitimately be true. Might not be the Spurs, but could be someone else. They can feel good about keeping Harper and hope history shows they were wise in doing so.
#FreeChuckDiesel
Bucksmaniac wrote:I'm sorry, but I'm starting to sour on Giannis

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