MIA - NYK - TOR

[cgf]

Would sending Hart to Toronto for Barrett help? I kinda like the balance of Herro - Hart - Ingram - Barnes - Poeltl starting 5, and RJ could help Miami's creation.

[BBallFreak]

There is no basis here for Miami to consider this type of deal. Just a non-starter

[oldncreaky]

Would sending Hart to Toronto for Barrett help? I kinda like the balance of Herro - Hart - Ingram - Barnes - Poeltl starting 5, and RJ could help Miami's creation.

Uggh

Without diving into the details of salary, I see that as an overly expensive 1st round exit with less of a path to future improvement than the current TOR squad that also has a 1st round ceiling but is slightly less expensive

[cgf]

Would sending Hart to Toronto for Barrett help? I kinda like the balance of Herro - Hart - Ingram - Barnes - Poeltl starting 5, and RJ could help Miami's creation.

Uggh

Without diving into the details of salary, I see that as an overly expensive 1st round exit with less of a path to future improvement than the current TOR squad that also has a 1st round ceiling but is slightly less expensive

I certainly like their potential more with IQ & RJ, but think they'd be better next year with Herro & Hart. If the plan is to be competitive and hope you can swing another Kawhi trade, then I can see wanting to be as good as possible...especially if Giannis stays in Milwaukee for another year and Masai wants to impress upon him how good they could be with him.

[oldncreaky]

Would sending Hart to Toronto for Barrett help? I kinda like the balance of Herro - Hart - Ingram - Barnes - Poeltl starting 5, and RJ could help Miami's creation.

Uggh

Without diving into the details of salary, I see that as an overly expensive 1st round exit with less of a path to future improvement than the current TOR squad that also has a 1st round ceiling but is slightly less expensive

I certainly like their potential more with IQ & RJ, but think they'd be better next year with Herro & Hart. If the plan is to be competitive and hope you can swing another Kawhi trade, then I can see wanting to be as good as possible...especially if Giannis stays in Milwaukee for another year and Masai wants to impress upon him how good they could be with him.

I mean, yeah, that might be a slightly better team, or a slightly worse team with card-carrying members of the bricklayers union, but it's just not positioned to make a jump

I think fantasies about swinging "another Kawhi trade" are just that -- fantasies -- until and unless the team swinging that trade averaged 56 wins the last 3 years, instead of the 32 wins that TOR has averaged. This TOR team is more like the Rudy Gay era Raptors, not the 2016-2018 era of the team.

[cgf]

Uggh

Without diving into the details of salary, I see that as an overly expensive 1st round exit with less of a path to future improvement than the current TOR squad that also has a 1st round ceiling but is slightly less expensive

I certainly like their potential more with IQ & RJ, but think they'd be better next year with Herro & Hart. If the plan is to be competitive and hope you can swing another Kawhi trade, then I can see wanting to be as good as possible...especially if Giannis stays in Milwaukee for another year and Masai wants to impress upon him how good they could be with him.

I mean, yeah, that might be a slightly better team, or a slightly worse team with card-carrying members of the bricklayers union, but it's just not positioned to make a jump

I think fantasies about swinging "another Kawhi trade" are just that -- fantasies -- until and unless the team swinging that trade averaged 56 wins the last 3 years, instead of the 32 wins that TOR has averaged. This TOR team is more like the Rudy Gay era Raptors, not the 2016-2018 era of the team.

Fair enough, but I can certainly see that team winning 45-50 games a year if BI is a little healthier than he was in NOLA...where I suspect playing with Zion drained his motivation...and the defense they played down the stretch is real. A near 50 win team becomes a more interesting proposition to someone who trusted Masai...especially if they can hold onto Barnes & IQ in a potential Giannis trade.

[oldncreaky]

I certainly like their potential more with IQ & RJ, but think they'd be better next year with Herro & Hart. If the plan is to be competitive and hope you can swing another Kawhi trade, then I can see wanting to be as good as possible...especially if Giannis stays in Milwaukee for another year and Masai wants to impress upon him how good they could be with him.

I mean, yeah, that might be a slightly better team, or a slightly worse team with card-carrying members of the bricklayers union, but it's just not positioned to make a jump

I think fantasies about swinging "another Kawhi trade" are just that -- fantasies -- until and unless the team swinging that trade averaged 56 wins the last 3 years, instead of the 32 wins that TOR has averaged. This TOR team is more like the Rudy Gay era Raptors, not the 2016-2018 era of the team.

Fair enough, but I can certainly see that team winning 45-50 games a year if BI is a little healthier than he was in NOLA...where I suspect playing with Zion drained his motivation...and the defense they played down the stretch is real. A near 50 win team becomes a more interesting proposition to someone who trusted Masai...especially if they can hold onto Barnes & IQ in a potential Giannis trade.

I don't buy it

The first half of the season, TOR went 8-31. However, they had a brutal schedule, and were hammered by injuries in that period, and should have been better than their record

The second half of the season, TOR went 22-19. However, they played the easiest schedule, so weak that a .500 team would have been expected to win 60%+ of the games. OTOH, they were tanking, rolling out line-ups with Gleaguers, 10-days and rookies with only 2-3 solid NBA players playing each game.

Add those 2 half seasons together, and I've got them as thoroughly mid, play-in bound -- unless Poeltl misses significant time, which IMO would send them back to the lottery. I don't see that as a 45-50 win team, let alone 55-60 win team that is a "Kawhi trade" away from contention

[cgf]

I mean, yeah, that might be a slightly better team, or a slightly worse team with card-carrying members of the bricklayers union, but it's just not positioned to make a jump

I think fantasies about swinging "another Kawhi trade" are just that -- fantasies -- until and unless the team swinging that trade averaged 56 wins the last 3 years, instead of the 32 wins that TOR has averaged. This TOR team is more like the Rudy Gay era Raptors, not the 2016-2018 era of the team.

Fair enough, but I can certainly see that team winning 45-50 games a year if BI is a little healthier than he was in NOLA...where I suspect playing with Zion drained his motivation...and the defense they played down the stretch is real. A near 50 win team becomes a more interesting proposition to someone who trusted Masai...especially if they can hold onto Barnes & IQ in a potential Giannis trade.

I don't buy it

The first half of the season, TOR went 8-31. However, they had a brutal schedule, and were hammered by injuries in that period, and should have been better than their record

The second half of the season, TOR went 22-19. However, they played the easiest schedule, so weak that a .500 team would have been expected to win 60%+ of the games. OTOH, they were tanking, rolling out line-ups with Gleaguers, 10-days and rookies with only 2-3 solid NBA players playing each game.

Add those 2 half seasons together, and I've got them as thoroughly mid, play-in bound -- unless Poeltl misses significant time, which IMO would send them back to the lottery. I don't see that as a 45-50 win team, let alone 55-60 win team that is a "Kawhi trade" away from contention

Not sure I do either, but I think I might...and more importantly, I think Masai might; unless I'm misreading his intentions with the Ingram trade. Which could be the case, he may just have viewed that as an easy value win for a player who could help their kids develop before getting flipped at a later date. But if that was also a signal of Masai's refusal to tank + wanting his kids to get playoff experience, then adding a Barrett-Hart swap to the Quickley-Herro one, should fit the mission statement.

Tough to know what to take from last season given the injuries & tanking, but I think their defense could be legit. And if their defense is in the same tier as yours or Orlando's, then the bar the offense has to clear to be a .500 team becomes a lot lower...and that's a bar I think a Herro/Ingram led offense could definitely clear. Which is why I think that group could win 45-50 games to battle a KAT-led Miami & the Hawks (if JJ can finally stay healthy) for that final top 6 spot behind CLE / DET / IND / NYK / ORL.

EDIT:
Weirdly I think it's the Knicks I've talked myself out of it making sense for because we'd be relying on Brunson for so much creation that we'd need to have a legendary defense around him just to survive the minutes he rests...and I think Chuck sold me on that Bam deal being a year away from cracking some "worst contracts" discussions.

That said, a McBride, Quickley, Bridges, Anunoby, Adebayo, Robinson...plus Wright / Shamet / taxpayer MLE (or McCullar)...defense around Brunson could be ridiculous to survive having Jalen + four 3rd options offensively + Mitch's rebounding.

[oldncreaky]

Fair enough, but I can certainly see that team winning 45-50 games a year if BI is a little healthier than he was in NOLA...where I suspect playing with Zion drained his motivation...and the defense they played down the stretch is real. A near 50 win team becomes a more interesting proposition to someone who trusted Masai...especially if they can hold onto Barnes & IQ in a potential Giannis trade.

I don't buy it

The first half of the season, TOR went 8-31. However, they had a brutal schedule, and were hammered by injuries in that period, and should have been better than their record

The second half of the season, TOR went 22-19. However, they played the easiest schedule, so weak that a .500 team would have been expected to win 60%+ of the games. OTOH, they were tanking, rolling out line-ups with Gleaguers, 10-days and rookies with only 2-3 solid NBA players playing each game.

Add those 2 half seasons together, and I've got them as thoroughly mid, play-in bound -- unless Poeltl misses significant time, which IMO would send them back to the lottery. I don't see that as a 45-50 win team, let alone 55-60 win team that is a "Kawhi trade" away from contention

Not sure I do either, but I think I might...and more importantly, I think Masai might; unless I'm misreading his intentions with the Ingram trade. Which could be the case, he may just have viewed that as an easy value win for a player who could help their kids develop before getting flipped at a later date. But if that was also a signal of Masai's refusal to tank + wanting his kids to get playoff experience, then adding a Barrett-Hart swap to the Quickley-Herro one, should fit the mission statement.

Tough to know what to take from last season given the injuries & tanking, but I think their defense could be legit. And if their defense is in the same tier as yours or Orlando's, then the bar the offense has to clear to be a .500 team becomes a lot lower...and that's a bar I think a Herro/Ingram led offense could definitely clear. Which is why I think that group could win 45-50 games to battle a KAT-led Miami & the Hawks (if JJ can finally stay healthy) for that final top 6 spot behind CLE / DET / IND / NYK / ORL.

EDIT:
Weirdly I think it's the Knicks I've talked myself out of it making sense for because we'd be relying on Brunson for so much creation that we'd need to have a legendary defense around him just to survive the minutes he rests...and I think Chuck sold me on that Bam deal being a year away from cracking some "worst contracts" discussions.

I may be too cynical about Masai, but I take the statements around the Ingram trade to be more about PR and marketing than about basketball. If the BI trade works out as a flip, it makes sense, and may turn out well. He traded an expiring Davion Mitchell (neutral), an expiring Brown (negative @ $23M), Olynyk (weakly positive?) and the 2026 Indiana FRP for Ingram. Ingram for the equivalent of a late FRP is low risk, with significant upside -- but from an on-the-court perspective, I think he's exactly what they did not need.

I don't buy the D either. From March 1 on, the Raptor's rSoS was below .400 the whole time. There were some comically bad games where 2 tanking teams were trying very hard to lose, pulling their starters and even any competent bench players in crunch time. I even saw the Raptors put some dude on a 10-day during closing time to play PG for the first time in his career. I ignore the stats because of the schedule noise.

This TOR line-up is also comically small at the moment. If Poeltl is out or even in foul trouble, the Raptors best option for paint D are . . . Barnes, Ingram and Barrett. Seriously, RJ Barrett played more than a bit at PF this past season. Do that in any round of the playoffs, and you're swept.

[cgf]

I don't buy it

The first half of the season, TOR went 8-31. However, they had a brutal schedule, and were hammered by injuries in that period, and should have been better than their record

The second half of the season, TOR went 22-19. However, they played the easiest schedule, so weak that a .500 team would have been expected to win 60%+ of the games. OTOH, they were tanking, rolling out line-ups with Gleaguers, 10-days and rookies with only 2-3 solid NBA players playing each game.

Add those 2 half seasons together, and I've got them as thoroughly mid, play-in bound -- unless Poeltl misses significant time, which IMO would send them back to the lottery. I don't see that as a 45-50 win team, let alone 55-60 win team that is a "Kawhi trade" away from contention

Not sure I do either, but I think I might...and more importantly, I think Masai might; unless I'm misreading his intentions with the Ingram trade. Which could be the case, he may just have viewed that as an easy value win for a player who could help their kids develop before getting flipped at a later date. But if that was also a signal of Masai's refusal to tank + wanting his kids to get playoff experience, then adding a Barrett-Hart swap to the Quickley-Herro one, should fit the mission statement.

Tough to know what to take from last season given the injuries & tanking, but I think their defense could be legit. And if their defense is in the same tier as yours or Orlando's, then the bar the offense has to clear to be a .500 team becomes a lot lower...and that's a bar I think a Herro/Ingram led offense could definitely clear. Which is why I think that group could win 45-50 games to battle a KAT-led Miami & the Hawks (if JJ can finally stay healthy) for that final top 6 spot behind CLE / DET / IND / NYK / ORL.

EDIT:
Weirdly I think it's the Knicks I've talked myself out of it making sense for because we'd be relying on Brunson for so much creation that we'd need to have a legendary defense around him just to survive the minutes he rests...and I think Chuck sold me on that Bam deal being a year away from cracking some "worst contracts" discussions.

I may be too cynical about Masai, but I take the statements around the Ingram trade to be more about PR and marketing than about basketball. If the BI trade works out as a flip, it makes sense, and may turn out well. He traded an expiring Davion Mitchell (neutral), an expiring Brown (negative @ $23M), Olynyk (weakly positive?) and the 2026 Indiana FRP for Ingram. Ingram for the equivalent of a late FRP is low risk, with significant upside -- but from an on-the-court perspective, I think he's exactly what they did not need.

I don't buy the D either. From March 1 on, the Raptor's rSoS was below .400 the whole time. There were some comically bad games where 2 tanking teams were trying very hard to lose, pulling their starters and even any competent bench players in crunch time. I even saw the Raptors put some dude on a 10-day during closing time to play PG for the first time in his career. I ignore the stats because of the schedule noise.

This TOR line-up is also comically small at the moment. If Poeltl is out or even in foul trouble, the Raptors best option for paint D are . . . Barnes, Ingram and Barrett. Seriously, RJ Barrett played more than a bit at PF this past season. Do that in any round of the playoffs, and you're swept.

Yeah, that's where my hesitation comes in and why I'd probably keep RJ over Hart, but the Quickley for Herro swap is one I think they'd jump on for similar reasons to why they made the Ingram trade...even if I prefer IQ for my Knicks.