Wizards/Nuggets: Nuggets dump Zeke

[tcheco]

Honestly, he has been so disappointing, It's hard to gauge real value vs what we would acceptd.

Today? Nuggets shouldn't sign him for more than 15M per year. It's the last year of his rookie contract, never averaged more than 8ppg while playing with Jokic, can't shoot the 3, can't rebound better than the next guy, but can defend a little at least and this year he has improved his FT%(7 games)

Weird for me to bash on him after advocating to not dump him, but him being 23 is the only thing that he has going for him, there's hope he can flip a switch and improve. It reminds me a bit of Pat Williams situation with the Bulls, they gave him a long contract at a "low figure", and still he is seen as overpaid and useless since he haven't improved at all.

Nuggets have fumbled so hard on their picks that picking 29 and not picking at all in the first round does not worry me really. and I agree, keeping Val, THJ and Brown is more important than Watson next year.

I think we share the same value Watson has in the end.

We agree 100%. $15M is good number for player like Watson. Not paying for production but potential. And in the last CBA, this would have been no brainer. But with this salary next season Nuggets would have $208M for 8 players if they decline $10M for Jonas, and if they dump Nnaji's $7.4M which is a must. It would be $15M for 6 players untill 2nd apron. It means all 6 on min contracts. Would they be able to resign BB, Val and THJ for vet mins? Not sure.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/denver-nuggets/yearly

I'd be shocked if he got that much. Role-player 8th/9th men have lost their negotiating power in the harder cap era. I think he is more in the Caleb Martin/Derrick Jones Jr. tier, who got $8-10M. In fact, I think he'd be valued a bit lower than those guys, so something more like $6-8M

I mean, if he plays as bad as he has recently, sure 10M might be too much, i got the 15M figure if he managed to figure anything out. Pat Williams is still an all time werid extension

[BelgradeNugget]

We agree 100%. $15M is good number for player like Watson. Not paying for production but potential. And in the last CBA, this would have been no brainer. But with this salary next season Nuggets would have $208M for 8 players if they decline $10M for Jonas, and if they dump Nnaji's $7.4M which is a must. It would be $15M for 6 players untill 2nd apron. It means all 6 on min contracts. Would they be able to resign BB, Val and THJ for vet mins? Not sure.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/denver-nuggets/yearly

I'd be shocked if he got that much. Role-player 8th/9th men have lost their negotiating power in the harder cap era. I think he is more in the Caleb Martin/Derrick Jones Jr. tier, who got $8-10M. In fact, I think he'd be valued a bit lower than those guys, so something more like $6-8M

I mean, if he plays as bad as he has recently, sure 10M might be too much, i got the 15M figure if he managed to figure anything out. Pat Williams is still an all time werid extension

Payton Watson is role-player 8th/9th man now, but with young players, teams usually overpay them on "potential" they could reach. Caleb is 30, Derrick Joner Jr is 28. With those players NBA value them as - what you see is what you get.
With young players - rookie extensions...just from last few years

Kevin Huerter $16M
Robert Williams III $12.5M
Landry Shamet $10M
Grayson Allen $9M
Corey Kispert $13.5M
Moses Moody $12.5M
Santi Aldama $17.5M
Brendon Clark $12.5M

All backups in the time of signing. So, Nuggets saw all-defense potential in Watson. Do they see him as starter one day? Does he sees himself as starter during this contract if he improves (always expectation for young players).

So yes, his real worth is $6-8M. If he improves to 6th man level $8-10M. If he becomes all-defense wing with solid offense $15M. Problem is as backup wing he will always be less valuable to them than backup PG, and backup C.

Anyway, IMO Nuggets should go for what they have now and in the next few years, instead of what they can get from their young players in few years if they play them through their mistakes. I hope they learned with mistakes they made last 2 years and GSW did with Moody, Kuminga and Wisman.

[nate33]

I'd be shocked if he got that much. Role-player 8th/9th men have lost their negotiating power in the harder cap era. I think he is more in the Caleb Martin/Derrick Jones Jr. tier, who got $8-10M. In fact, I think he'd be valued a bit lower than those guys, so something more like $6-8M

I mean, if he plays as bad as he has recently, sure 10M might be too much, i got the 15M figure if he managed to figure anything out. Pat Williams is still an all time werid extension

Payton Watson is role-player 8th/9th man now, but with young players, teams usually overpay them on "potential" they could reach. Caleb is 30, Derrick Joner Jr is 28. With those players NBA value them as - what you see is what you get.
With young players - rookie extensions...just from last few years

Kevin Huerter $16M
Robert Williams III $12.5M
Landry Shamet $10M
Grayson Allen $9M
Corey Kispert $13.5M
Moses Moody $12.5M
Santi Aldama $17.5M
Brendon Clark $12.5M

All backups in the time of signing. So, Nuggets saw all-defense potential in Watson. Do they see him as starter one day? Does he sees himself as starter during this contract if he improves (always expectation for young players).

So yes, his real worth is $6-8M. If he improves to 6th man level $8-10M. If he becomes all-defense wing with solid offense $15M. Problem is as backup wing he will always be less valuable to them than backup PG, and backup C.

Anyway, IMO Nuggets should go for what they have now and in the next few years, instead of what they can get from their young players in few years if they play them through their mistakes. I hope they learned with mistakes they made last 2 years and GSW did with Moody, Kuminga and Wisman.

A big difference between most of those comps is that those comps were generally signed after Year 3 while the player was still pretty young, so the contracts were factoring a bit more Year 4 improvement into the cost. Most of those guys, except maybe Kispert were projected to very soon move into a starting role if they weren't starters already.

- Huerter started 49 games prior to and averaged 30.8 minutes a game. And that was after his third season. It was reasonable to expect more improvement so that would have been priced in.

- Robert Williams was extended after his THIRD season. Also, that was before the new cap rules.

- Shamet was signed before the new cap rules.

- Grayson Allen started 74 games in the season prior to being extended. And he still didn't make much.

- Kispert was extended after his third season. He started 22 games and averaged 26 minutes.

- Moody is a fair comp, but he was extended at age 21 after his third season. They were clearly factoring a bit more improvement in front of him.

- Aldama put up very impressive advanced stats. He is a tier above a guy like Watson. Same with Clarke.

I'd say the only favorable comp is Kispert. You can argue that if Kispert got $13M, Watson should get at least $10-12M. I think the rest of these guys were valued higher than Watson for various reasons and only reinforce the idea that Watson should get something in the $6-8M range.

[BelgradeNugget]

I mean, if he plays as bad as he has recently, sure 10M might be too much, i got the 15M figure if he managed to figure anything out. Pat Williams is still an all time werid extension

Payton Watson is role-player 8th/9th man now, but with young players, teams usually overpay them on "potential" they could reach. Caleb is 30, Derrick Joner Jr is 28. With those players NBA value them as - what you see is what you get.
With young players - rookie extensions...just from last few years

Kevin Huerter $16M
Robert Williams III $12.5M
Landry Shamet $10M
Grayson Allen $9M
Corey Kispert $13.5M
Moses Moody $12.5M
Santi Aldama $17.5M
Brendon Clark $12.5M

All backups in the time of signing. So, Nuggets saw all-defense potential in Watson. Do they see him as starter one day? Does he sees himself as starter during this contract if he improves (always expectation for young players).

So yes, his real worth is $6-8M. If he improves to 6th man level $8-10M. If he becomes all-defense wing with solid offense $15M. Problem is as backup wing he will always be less valuable to them than backup PG, and backup C.

Anyway, IMO Nuggets should go for what they have now and in the next few years, instead of what they can get from their young players in few years if they play them through their mistakes. I hope they learned with mistakes they made last 2 years and GSW did with Moody, Kuminga and Wisman.

A big difference between most of those comps is that those comps were generally signed after Year 3 while the player was still pretty young, so the contracts were factoring a bit more Year 4 improvement into the cost. Most of those guys, except maybe Kispert were projected to very soon move into a starting role if they weren't starters already.

- Huerter started 49 games prior to and averaged 30.8 minutes a game. And that was after his third season. It was reasonable to expect more improvement so that would have been priced in.

- Robert Williams was extended after his THIRD season. Also, that was before the new cap rules.

- Shamet was signed before the new cap rules.

- Grayson Allen started 74 games in the season prior to being extended. And he still didn't make much.

- Kispert was extended after his third season. He started 22 games and averaged 26 minutes.

- Moody is a fair comp, but he was extended at age 21 after his third season. They were clearly factoring a bit more improvement in front of him.

- Aldama put up very impressive advanced stats. He is a tier above a guy like Watson. Same with Clarke.

I'd say the only favorable comp is Kispert. You can argue that if Kispert got $13M, Watson should get at least $10-12M. I think the rest of these guys were valued higher than Watson for various reasons and only reinforce the idea that Watson should get something in the $6-8M range.

Take into consideration all of this contracts were signed few years ago, and cap is bigger every year, so $10M 3 years ago is 13-14 mil now.
For Watson this is also start of his 4th season, he is 23 years old. Majority of this guys played for bad teams ready to invest time and losing into their development. Watson was 7th player on a good team last season and started 18 games. As starter he averaged 11.6/4/1.5 with 1.7 blocks, playing 32 minutes and shooting 55/37/60. Neither of these players in the list would have bigger role for Denver now if thay were there at the time of signing their contracts. Also, again he is by far the best defender among guys from the list. Nuggets see him as their best wing defender, best option for guys like Durant, Tatum...If Cam/Braun have to miss some time, Denver wouldn't have problem with Watson starting.
Again, they see his potential as all-nba defender. But the key word is "potential" for "young improving player".