shrink wrote: thinkingwarriors wrote:
shrink wrote:Every advanced stat, position scarcity, desired 3-and-Elite D skill-set, and contract?
I'm not seeing it.
Russell ORPM 2.10 Wins 7.32 BPM 3.4 W/S 5.0 PER 19.4
Covington ORPM -0.81 Wins 4.34 BPM 2.4 W/S 2.5 PER 13.3
Position scarcity goes to the All-Star primary ball handler obviously. 3 and d wings with narrow skill sets are a dime a dozen, just because Covington is one of the best doesn't mean he's more valuable than a build around player like Russell.
As for contract, Covington got the contract he deserves and so did Russell. The values of their deals are accurate to their values as players.
You are really stretching it here, and I feel like several fans in GSW suddenly changed their mind on Russell when the team traded for him, and they realize that he isn’t a big commodity for most teams in the league.
First, regarding advanced stats, Russell played a full season, Covington only part of the year. If you look at their stats over the last three years, it’s not close. Especially if you use RPM and not just “ORPM.” to hide the big gap in their defensive numbers.
You are completely wrong on 3-and-D wings being “a dime a dozen,”. The league is full of PG’s right now. Most teams either have a better PG, or they have invested a lottery pick into a guy they hope will be better, or they have a player at a different position with the ball in his hands. MIN isn’t one of those teams, but that does not mean Russell is the best way to fill that need in a buyer’s market at PG.
Covington IS one of the best 3-and-D SF’s. Russell is not a top 10 PG, and before last year, he wasn’t in the top 20.
I know Covington is on a value deal. I have my doubts that Russell is worth the max, and so do many others.
There's a lot to unpack here.
1) If you are using Russell's stats over the past 3 years, then you are looking at him at ages 20, 21, 22, 23. Covington at those ages was not in the league, not in the league, not in the league, and not impressive. So... its more than just a little misleading to grab Russell's stats those years and compare them to Covington's prime. Especially when most recently Russell was better. Russell lead his team to the playoffs. Best player on a team he took to the playoffs. Covington isn't even close to that. How this does not even enter your thinking is a little confusing.
3) There actually are quite a few 3 & D wings (extent of the 3 and extent of the D is debatable). However, Covington is one of the best of them. Not sure if he's the best, but he's definitely up there. However, I find it odd how Covington's position is "3&D wing" while Russell is a PG. By limiting Covington's position to "3&D Wing" you are eliminating basically half of the starting SF's in the league including some of the leagues best players. Meanwhile, Russell still gets to be compared to Curry, Dame and others. Nice way to argue, but just a little misleading... or a lot misleading.
3) I'm not so sure Russell isn't a top 10 point guard. If he's not, he's pretty darn close. I've looked at several rankings of point guards and all of them had Russell ranked between 7 and 10. Admittedly those are just opinions and no more valid than you or I, but I would not say it is a given that he's not a top 10 PG.
4) About the only thing we agree on is that Covington is on a value deal. How much of a value i guess is up for debate. I think he's getting paid like a solid 6th man, but he's more like a + starter. Given what he provides, i think he should be making maybe around 20m per year (ish?). However, for your information, GSW fans don't really care all that much that he's on a value deal. Unless there is a TPE that is getting flipped into another valuable player, it doesn't mean much to us. We won't be able to sign anyone with that $ savings so it just saves ownership money. Fans don't care about that, and seeing as how the Warriors ownership has been spending, they don't seem to care much either. In this thread, Covington's value deal gets almost completely negated by sending us Dieng. Who is just a little overpaid and I'm not sure Dieng gets a lot of minutes for us.
5) I don't know if GSW fans changed their mind on Russell. I know I haven't. I'm not really a huge fan of his. Lets just say he has presented himself off the court (rightly or wrongly) as the kind of guy i'm not too hyped to root for. Hopefully i'm wrong about that. That said, he is a very good player at a position of need so I'm in no hurry to sell low on his talent because of it.