Shams: Jrue to Milwaukee

[blind prophet]

Sorry wrong thread.

[Prez]

I mean it's a lateral move between him and Bled if you just completely ignore the postseason. The whole appeal of Jrue is that he can give you regular season Bledsoe+ type of production/impact except also carry it over into the playoffs, and his top end play is destroying Dame Lillard in a playoff series

[loserX]

Count me in the group that thinks Jrue is better, and I suspect Giannis is too.

In any case, those swaps are likely illusory and the picks are likely late. It's not even so much a matter of value as this is Milwaukee locking in, since they have almost no assets left to trade outside their starters.

Interested to see what shakes out in New Orleans, who now have three point guards. Is someone going to go? Are they going to instead play Hill at the 2?

[machu46]

I want to see all the protections and everything, but unless it's one of those deals where the 1sts are protected in a way that makes them likely to turn into 2nd's, this is going to be a great haul for New Orleans. Only reason I'd say both teams win is because it seems to indicate Giannis is staying and it does undoubtedly make the team better.

[HartfordWhalers]

A note on swaps. Last year swaps were done with protection for the first time ever, with the league rejecting this previously. So, swaps could have protection nowadays, which makes them a hell of a lot less scary (potentially).

[nolang1]

Count me in the group that thinks Jrue is better, and I suspect Giannis is too.

In any case, those swaps are likely illusory and the picks are likely late. It's not even so much a matter of value as this is Milwaukee locking in, since they have almost no assets left to trade outside their starters.

Interested to see what shakes out in New Orleans, who now have three point guards. Is someone going to go? Are they going to instead play Hill at the 2?

Key word there being likely. The East is upgraded enough that any year Giannis is injured you're looking at a potential lottery pick.

[loserX]

Count me in the group that thinks Jrue is better, and I suspect Giannis is too.

In any case, those swaps are likely illusory and the picks are likely late. It's not even so much a matter of value as this is Milwaukee locking in, since they have almost no assets left to trade outside their starters.

Interested to see what shakes out in New Orleans, who now have three point guards. Is someone going to go? Are they going to instead play Hill at the 2?

Key word there being likely. The East is upgraded enough that any year Giannis is injured you're looking at a potential lottery pick.

Pretty much any team's pick looks better if their best player gets injured. That doesn't really factor much into the decision AFAIC. It is of course always worth a gamble to get a draft pick but I wouldn't put a whole lot of stock in that upside.

But hey, if it turns out that way, great! You got lucky.

[nolang1]

Count me in the group that thinks Jrue is better, and I suspect Giannis is too.

In any case, those swaps are likely illusory and the picks are likely late. It's not even so much a matter of value as this is Milwaukee locking in, since they have almost no assets left to trade outside their starters.

Interested to see what shakes out in New Orleans, who now have three point guards. Is someone going to go? Are they going to instead play Hill at the 2?

Key word there being likely. The East is upgraded enough that any year Giannis is injured you're looking at a potential lottery pick.

Pretty much any team's pick looks better if their best player gets injured. That doesn't really factor much into the decision AFAIC. It is of course always worth a gamble to get a draft pick but I wouldn't put a whole lot of stock in that upside.

But hey, if it turns out that way, great! You got lucky.

More so when that best player is the MVP/DPOY and the remaining team is very shallow with no young players (3 years from now you're looking at 32 y/o Middleton, 33 y/o Holiday, 35 y/o Lopez, 31 y/o Bogdan, and a bunch of minimum salary players as the supporting cast).

Even without the possibility that a player who was injured in this years playoffs, has had past knee issues, and plays a very physical game built on driving to the basket will be injured at some point in the next 5 years (or see his game decline from 25-30 like it did with players such as Wade or Westbrook who were super athletes without much of a jump shot to fall back on), 3 late firsts in what will be better drafts is as good as some late lottery pick in this draft.

[Baddy Chuck]

3 late firsts in what will be better drafts is as good as some late lottery pick in this draft.

Nice so the fact that one of those firsts is a late first this season means we basically gave up 2 firsts and a second or soemthing.

[Duke4life831]

The value of this trade drastically rides on Giannis resigning or not. And at the moment, it looks like Giannis is going to resign. There was 2 drastically different outcomes with this trade.

#1 Giannis doesn't resign: Giannis walks after this year and the Bucks are screwed. They would have zero draft assets to improve their team the Pels would just bleed them dry year after year with picks or pick swaps, just like the Celtics did to the Nets.

#2 Giannis resigns: The Bucks continue their run of regular season success, which means this essentially nullifies the pick swaps. And even if Giannis ends up wanting out of his contract. If he plays just 3 years of his 5 year supermax, that would mean the only pick that wouldnt be pretty much guaranteed to be in the late 20s is the final pick (looks like it will be the 2026 draft). So it could easily just turn out to be 3 picks in the mid-late 20s spread out over 6 years and Bledsoe and Hill. That isnt a huge return for the Pels, thats a lot of change but no real trade value.

I get why Griff and the Pels did it. I get swinging for the fences and hoping Giannis doesnt stay long term in a small market. But with the Brogdon trade, I think Giannis probably stays and the Pels get a lot of small stuff in return. But nothing major.

[nolang1]

3 late firsts in what will be better drafts is as good as some late lottery pick in this draft.

Nice so the fact that one of those firsts is a late first this season means we basically gave up 2 firsts and a second or soemthing.

Sure, if the Bucks win a championship in the next year or two it'll all be worth it regardless. But the point still stands that 3 picks in the 25-35 range is generally enough to get up to the lottery, and that's the absolute minimum the Pelicans would be getting. In 2016 you could've said that all Warriors picks were guaranteed to be at the end of the first round for the foreseeable future; a lot of stuff can happen over the course of 6 years.

[gom]

I chose "both," because it seems the teams all get what they want. Jrue added to Giannis should go a long way to convincing him to stay, which means that the Bucks are going to be competing for the East for the foreseeable future. The Bucks picks don't really have much value in that case and the swaps aren't going to happen unless NOP surprises or the Bucks have terrible luck. Jrue was kind of an extra piece in NOP and outside the new core's age, so it's a smart move whether the FRP score or not.

[thamadkant]

Holiday is a smarter player than Bledsoe, he's a better player even if the box score say they are close.... Holiday is better

[Slava]

All that time Griffin spent pumping up the Holiday stock definitely paid off.

[Buzzard]

Bucks got really really balanced and good tonight. Teams need to start forming their secondary Giannis plans. I would not be surprised if the Heat try to lock up Gallinari long term now with their 20 million in cap.

[realEAST]

So if Giannis signs until 2025, there is only 2026 pick that is tricky for Bucks, but it may very well be protected... and given Bucks still have MLE to add impact wing / forward, I think they made a pretty nice haul last night.

Pels have done a good job too here, but Bucks did what they came to do, and really raised their ceiling and will be challenging for championship for half a decade.

[Buzzard]

So if Giannis signs until 2025, there is only 2026 pick that is tricky for Bucks, but it may very well be protected... and given Bucks still have MLE to add impact wing / forward, I think they made a pretty nice haul last night.

Pels have done a good job too here, but Bucks did what they came to do, and really raised their ceiling and will be challenging for championship for half a decade.

I like what both teams did and the Jrue asking price proved to be to rich for the Hawks. Which a lot of level headed people like myself predicted

If Bud cannot get this team out of the 2nd round he may be the next Bucks casualty. Bledsoe being the biggest so far.

[KuruptedCav]

I don’t get the shock over the picks. Nearly every team with a star player trades their future draft picks to build around him.

The teams that bundle for the better asset tend to have better outcomes.

Sure, you can save them and part them out piecemeal and add Jeri Welch or Donyell Marshall or the corpses of Antawn Jamison or Shaquille O’Neal and have nothing to show for it. Trust me, Luke Jackson and Christian Eyenga weren’t moving the needle.

Or you can move the assets, overpay for your Kevin Love, win the ring, and not give two yits about it.

None of it means a thing if you win that ring.

Go Bucks! Get er done.


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[Laimbeer]

Holiday is better, but he's a FRP better - not this. It's breathtakingly bad for the Bucks. Holiday is an excellent player, but he isn't a star. And can walk in a year, along with Giannis.

It looks like the AD package, and the Lakers did that knowing there was a very high probability he's stay. If someone had proposed this yesterday they'd have been told "too much" almost unanimously. The Bucks could have a very dark future.

[Baddy Chuck]

It looks like the AD package, and the Lakers did that knowing there was a very high probability he's stay. If someone had proposed this yesterday they'd have been told "too much" almost unanimously. The Bucks could have a very dark future.

Yeah its like an AD package if you remove the 4th pick in the draft and a 22 year old all-star.